Director of Amateur Scouting John Lilley moves to the Rangers

[Leafs at Knight]

Lol what recent year do you consider being good?

What years and picks do you think have been bad the last few years?

 

[A1LeafNation]

What years and picks do you think have been bad the last few years?

Havent had a really good draft since 2012 I think.

 

[Leafs at Knight]

Havent had a really good draft since 2012 I think.

Yea I don't know what to say. 2018 - 2020 are looking really solid so far, far better than any other year this decade except maybe 2015. 2012 draft wasn't even good, which is the ironic part. We got Rielly 5th, and then Connor brown late.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Yea I don't know what to say. 2018 - 2020 are looking really solid so far, far better than any other year this decade except maybe 2015. 2012 draft wasn't even good, which is the ironic part. We got Rielly 5th, and then Connor brown late.

It's the last draft where we got two of either a top 4 dman or top 6 forward.

We havent done that since 2012. Sad that one if them had to be a top 5 pick.

I agree that 2018-present is too early to judge.

Let's not even talk about drafting goalies. We will all be depressed.

 

[notbias]

The age old method of draft evaluation is to wait and see before declaring a victory. Because we aren’t drafting for WJC success, good Liiga numbers and OHL records but NHL players that actually contribute one day.

Many of our bust picks from the dark ages also passed these milestones and even further in development before tailing off.

May as well just look at every player as a prospect then until their rights expire. Do Herzog and Liljegren have the same chance of making it?

I am guessing you don't speculate on anything else since it is not a guaranteed thing. I'd assume your response to predictions about how the Leafs will do is "there is no way to tell, so I won't comment"

 

[Stephen]

May as well just look at every player as a prospect then until their rights expire. Do Herzog and Liljegren have the same chance of making it?

You can certainly rank and project different prospects differently according to upside and NHL readiness, but at the end of the day they're a prospect until they make it or like you said, their rights expire.

The fog of war is especially heavy at this stage since we've had a couple of years interrupted by the pandemic and development and progression across a number of leagues is a bit of a question mark.

But I wouldn't look at this group and make a definitive statement that the drafting has been better before a number of them are steady NHLers.

I look at a guy like Jeremy Bracco who put up nearly 80 points in the AHL and played a spot role the Marlies Calder Cup was penciled in by some zealous online voices to a top line role with the Leafs just 2 years ago. That guy was a full league ahead of guys like Robertson, Amirov, Hirvonen, Abramov, Abruzzese, Der-Arguchintsev and whomever you want to point to as improved drafting at forward. He busted and his rights expired.

They either make it or they don't and we'll have a better picture of how our 2018, 2019, 2020 drafts went in a couple of years.

 

[Menzinger]

His legacy with the team won't be known for at least another 2-3 years from now, but regardless seems like an unfortunate loss.

Curious who they'll bring in next

 

[cupcrazyman]

Scouting is pointless in Toronto if you trade away your high draft picks.

 

[Mickey Marner]

People seem upset in this thread and our drafting during his tenure was pretty mediocre. So what did he do well exactly?

 

[Leafidelity]

2021 World Junior Summer Showcase

#2 Roni Hirvonen - 2020 59th overall
#5 Matthew Knies - 2021 57th overall
#6 Topi Niemela - 2020 64th overall

Three Leafs in the top 6, not one a first round pick. That doesnt look like bad drafting to me.

Not even mentioning Robertson at 53rd overall in 2019... Sandin at 29th overall in 2018... I could go on...

 

[justashadowof]

Yea I don't know what to say. 2018 - 2020 are looking really solid so far, far better than any other year this decade except maybe 2015. 2012 draft wasn't even good, which is the ironic part. We got Rielly 5th, and then Connor brown late.

Don't they always.

 

[justashadowof]

Another individual not hired by the current boss bites the dust. Just to be clear that he has been scouting for the Leafs in the U.S. for over 15 years. Exactly what NHL players has he found? Exactly how many U.S. born players of note have the Leafs drafted in the past 30 years? Second most NHL players are from the U.S. and the Toronto Maple Leafs' best U.S. draft pick since 1990 (other than Matthews 1st overall) is Darby Henrickson! Abysmal.

 

[Zonk]

The age old method of draft evaluation is to wait and see before declaring a victory. Because we aren’t drafting for WJC success, good Liiga numbers and OHL records but NHL players that actually contribute one day.

Many of our bust picks from the dark ages also passed these milestones and even further in development before tailing off.

Nonsense. In these days of immediate gratification, we evaluate everything very quickly.
This forum has thousands of posts at the end of every draft assessing how well our team did.
Just as we do after every trade deadline.
And of course we do the same after the first day of free agency, (conveniently overlooking that the majority of the contracts signed on the first day of free agency are disasters). This year we even had a poll to evaluate our GM with lots and lots of heated opinions expressed in the thread!

In case you misunderstand, I am being sarcastic. It is absurd to try to evaluate a draft quickly, just as it is absurd to judge trades and free agent signings quickly. But we still do it.

 

[A1LeafNation]

2021 World Junior Summer Showcase

#2 Roni Hirvonen - 2020 59th overall
#5 Matthew Knies - 2021 57th overall
#6 Topi Niemela - 2020 64th overall

Three Leafs in the top 6, not one a first round pick. That doesnt look like bad drafting to me.

Not even mentioning Robertson at 53rd overall in 2019... Sandin at 29th overall in 2018... I could go on...

Which was their best draft year in the last 10 years?

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I think it is very easy to differentiate between drafting and developing.

Drafting is about acquiring guys with profiles that are conductive to success, both historically and pragmatically. With drafting, you want to give yourself (specifically your prospect pool) the highest likelihood of success, however you choose to define it (playing a certain number of games, being capable of filling a certain type of role, etc.). That does not mean every single guy turns into an NHLer, because even if you are the best drafting team by far, you are still going to have busts. It is no different than a GM trying to make moves to give his team the best chance of success, but if the Leafs are any indication, that does not guarantee success.

If you are drafting guys with low IQ or fatal flaws (i.e. terrible skating) that have shown to never really turn out, then it is a drafting issue because it would really take a miracle from a developmental standpoint to turn them into anything. You are lowering your pool having success. For example, drafting Rasanen is poor drafting. His skating did improve, but it was never going to be enough to override his absolutely deplorable hockey IQ that was always going to prevent him from turning into a quality pro player. Good scouts can identify these profiles and flaws, and would tell you to never draft guys like Rasanen. If you are drafting low ceiling guys, guys with major character flaws, etc. is all under drafting as well.

If we are drafting guys that have a good profile and guys are just not reaching their potential, then more likely than not it is on developing. Need to figure out a way to get the most out of these guys, because that is ultimately the whole point of having a development staff.

 

[LeafChief]

Havent had a really good draft since 2012 I think.

Lmao.

 

[Stephen]

I think it is very easy to differentiate between drafting and developing.

Drafting is about acquiring guys with profiles that are conductive to success, both historically and pragmatically. With drafting, you want to give yourself (specifically your prospect pool) the highest likelihood of success, however you choose to define it (playing a certain number of games, being capable of filling a certain type of role, etc.). That does not mean every single guy turns into an NHLer, because even if you are the best drafting team by far, you are still going to have busts. It is no different than a GM trying to make moves to give his team the best chance of success, but if the Leafs are any indication, that does not guarantee success.

If you are drafting guys with low IQ or fatal flaws (i.e. terrible skating) that have shown to never really turn out, then it is a drafting issue because it would really take a miracle from a developmental standpoint to turn them into anything. You are lowering your pool having success. For example, drafting Rasanen is poor drafting. His skating did improve, but it was never going to be enough to override his absolutely deplorable hockey IQ that was always going to prevent him from turning into a quality pro player. Good scouts can identify these profiles and flaws, and would tell you to never draft guys like Rasanen. If you are drafting low ceiling guys, guys with major character flaws, etc. is all under drafting as well.

If we are drafting guys that have a good profile and guys are just not reaching their potential, then more likely than not it is on developing. Need to figure out a way to get the most out of these guys, because that is ultimately the whole point of having a development staff.

Picking on Eemeli Rasanen and falling back on the IQ and skating are some of the more obvious scouting, drafting and development tropes that we've fallen prey to over the past few years in the group think. He's definitely a wasted project pick with the obvious issues of being a poor skater and a weird frame and maybe low IQ, but on the other hand, Erik Cernak was also a second round pick and had awkward skating and leaned more towards defensive shut down potential during his draft year.

You can also strike out pretty hard looking for Kirill Kaprizov and ending up with a trio of Timashov, Dzierkals, Bracco in the same draft. Would be interested to see what the differences between those players looks like at 17-18 and how you can draft for IQ, creativity, puck skills and still get it all wrong. It's a more subtle mistake but just as bad.

So it really comes down to the quality of the scouting and whatever the secret sauce is to being able to tease out the upside in any pick you're making. A low ceiling on a "fridge" can often be as bad as a low floor on a high skill player.

 

[The CyNick]

2021 World Junior Summer Showcase

#2 Roni Hirvonen - 2020 59th overall
#5 Matthew Knies - 2021 57th overall
#6 Topi Niemela - 2020 64th overall

Three Leafs in the top 6, not one a first round pick. That doesnt look like bad drafting to me.

Not even mentioning Robertson at 53rd overall in 2019... Sandin at 29th overall in 2018... I could go on...

Historically, how accurate are these rankings that you are citing? Would be good to know if they hold any weight in the real world (NHL).

I would basically just go by most games played in the NHL. Won't have an accurate view for another five years likely.

 

[Prominence]

Which was their best draft year in the last 10 years?

It will be 2020. Like you said earlier, it’s too early to tell, but a lot of the prospects are progressing well. I watch a lot of the prospects’ games. Names to watch out for: niemela, hirvonen, ovchinnikov (high risk), miettinen. Dark horse is ryan tverberg.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Picking on Eemeli Rasanen and falling back on the IQ and skating are some of the more obvious scouting, drafting and development tropes that we've fallen prey to over the past few years in the group think. He's definitely a wasted project pick with the obvious issues of being a poor skater and a weird frame and maybe low IQ, but on the other hand, Erik Cernak was also a second round pick and had awkward skating and leaned more towards defensive shut down potential during his draft year.

You can also strike out pretty hard looking for Kirill Kaprizov and ending up with a trio of Timashov, Dzierkals, Bracco in the same draft. Would be interested to see what the differences between those players looks like at 17-18 and how you can draft for IQ, creativity, puck skills and still get it all wrong. It's a more subtle mistake but just as bad.

So it really comes down to the quality of the scouting and whatever the secret sauce is to being able to tease out the upside in any pick you're making. A low ceiling on a "fridge" can often be as bad as a low floor on a high skill player.

I am picking on Rasanen for his low IQ. Cernak, meanwhile, had exceptionally high IQ. Huge difference between the two as prospects. A guy like Cernak would easily be top 50 on my board, if not top 25. Rasanen would not even make it at all. That is because IQ is priority #1, as it realistically should be. That determines a guy's upside and their likelihood of amounting to anything more than anything else.

The real problem is that people get hung up on size. That is the main trope that people need to get past, and people complain about it incessantly on here because 95% of them have probably never even bothered to watch a prospect. All you need to do is pull up a guy's EP profile to criticize their size.

IQ is the key. It's not going to guarantee success, but it will give you the best chance of getting successful prospects and it will get you the kind of profiles that will turn into guys like Cernak and Kaprizov.

Lilley has done a strong job, and that is likely why the Rangers poached him. Still have some regional weaknesses (Russia, WHL if Ritchie is not enough, etc.) but I think the philosophy is strong, and that is his main responsibility. Hopefully his replacement can build on what he has started.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

It will be 2020. Like you said earlier, it’s too early to tell, but a lot of the prospects are progressing well. I watch a lot of the prospects’ games. Names to watch out for: niemela, hirvonen, ovchinnikov (high risk), miettinen. Dark horse is ryan tverberg.

I like Villeneuve, and I want to see how a formal development camp can help his skating technique to improve his speed and smoothness, which I think is his main weakness right now. He has a lot of desirable features and this kind of guy is where our development team needs to earn their money.

 

[Prominence]

I like Villeneuve, and I want to see how a formal development camp can help his skating technique to improve his speed and smoothness, which I think is his main weakness right now. He has a lot of desirable features and this kind of guy is where our development team needs to earn their money.

I haven’ been able to see him last year. The streams had a lot of quebec games.

 

[forecheck]

It is imperative in today's game to ensure you Draft well and Develop those picks.
Our GM likes to trade away picks and has hired Hayle Wickenheiser and Daniel Goyette who have absolutely no idea what its requires to be an NHL player to lead our development ... And you wonder why people are fed up with this Regime!

 

[The Podium]

Which was their best draft year in the last 10 years?

2020 might be a draft where a lot of late round picks make it in impact roles.

Amirov
Niemela
Hirvonen
Ovchinnikov
Miettinen

All look great so far

 

[Mess]

John Lilley, Kyle Dubas and Brendan Shanahan of the Toronto Maple Leafs talk at American Airlines Center on June 22, 2018 in Dallas, Texas​

A head scout's entire job is tied to the entry draft with the goal of providing future talent for the NHL team and the worst thing a GM can do to his head scout is trade away all the teams draft picks. The Leafs scouting department worked all of last year and made the least amount of picks in Leafs history with only 3 total and only 1 in the top 150 with no 1st rounder.

This year before the scouting season even is open the Leafs only have 2 picks surviving from this upcoming draft already dealt 5 away, and with the Leafs in make or break season that needs playoff results what are the odds even these 2 picks 2022 survive this trade deadline?

Hearing John Lilley is moving on, is perhaps the least surprising news one could expect coming out of Toronto.