ProspectsFanatic
Registered User
- Nov 13, 2012
- 3,696
- 2,426
First and foremost, I want to make it clear that I am a big fan of Timmins and I believe he is one of the best chief scouts in the league.
However, I believe he made a slight miss evaluation on prospects playing in college leagues (NCAA, USHL, BCHL and comparable leagues). In fact, he overrated them, particularly in comparison with CHL (LHJMQ-WHL-OHL) prospects. Those missed evaluations made him repeat the same mistakes over and over again.
Here, I am comparing players coming from the CHL and players coming from college leagues that were drafted between round 3 to 7. Comparing the two first rounds was irrelevant, because those players had enough exposure to be evaluated properly, CHL players and USA college players can be compared directly in U17 and U18 tournaments. In fact, we have to give Timmins credits for his selections of college leagues players with top picks, except the bust that was Fischer he was able to get McDonagh, Pacioretty, Kristo and Tinordi.
You will see that with our late round picks, the rate of relative success is convincingly contrasting between CHL players and college leagues players.
2005-2011
NCAA-USHL-BCHL
3rd (79) - Mac Bennett (D)
3rd (86) - Steve Quailer (F)
4th (97) - Josiah Didier (D)
4th (113) - Mark MacMillan (F)
5th (133) - Joe Stejskal (D)
5th (142) - Andrew Conboy (F)
6th (169) - Dustin Walsh (F)
7th (192) - Scott Kishel (D)
7th (198) - Colin Sullivan (D)
7th (199) - Mike Cichy (F)
7th (229) - Philippe Paquet (D)
7th (206) - Patrick Johnson (F)
Maybe Bennett and ...? could play at least a game in the NHL; 1.5/12
Result: 12,5%
CHL:
3rd (65) - Olivier Fortier (F)
3rd (66) - Ryan White (F)
3rd (73) - Yannick Weber (D)
4th (108) - Olivier Archambault (F)
4th (117) - Morgan Ellis (D)
5th (130) - Mathieu Aubin (F)
5th (138) - Darren Dietz (D)
5th (139) - Gabriel Dumont (F)
5th (147) - Brendon Gallagher (F)
6th (190) - Matt D'Agostini (F)
7th (199) - Cameron Cepek (D)
White, Weber, Dumont, D'Agostini and Gallagher have already played in the NHL, and probably at least one between Ellis and Dietz will play in the NHL; 6/11
Result: 54,5%
Many wasted picks... Teams that are active signing graduated players from the NCAA have arguably better success then us with our College/NCAA players.
Also, I just want to add that drafting more European players with our late rounds pick could have also been an interesting possibility instead.
In the 2012 draft, Trevor Timmins seemed to have learned from his mistakes selecting no player from college league with his lower picks. He picked Bozon(3rd), Vail(4th), Hudon(5th) and Nystrom(6th). With Bozon's incredible season and Hudon being able to make team Canada U20 with an other year of eligibility remaining, Timmins' lower picks in the 2012 draft is among his best selections since he has been hired.
Discuss!
* By the way, I already know that it is normal for NCAA players to have slower development and that they are more 7th picks in the NCAA side's . But still... the gap is still considerable.
However, I believe he made a slight miss evaluation on prospects playing in college leagues (NCAA, USHL, BCHL and comparable leagues). In fact, he overrated them, particularly in comparison with CHL (LHJMQ-WHL-OHL) prospects. Those missed evaluations made him repeat the same mistakes over and over again.
Here, I am comparing players coming from the CHL and players coming from college leagues that were drafted between round 3 to 7. Comparing the two first rounds was irrelevant, because those players had enough exposure to be evaluated properly, CHL players and USA college players can be compared directly in U17 and U18 tournaments. In fact, we have to give Timmins credits for his selections of college leagues players with top picks, except the bust that was Fischer he was able to get McDonagh, Pacioretty, Kristo and Tinordi.
You will see that with our late round picks, the rate of relative success is convincingly contrasting between CHL players and college leagues players.
2005-2011
NCAA-USHL-BCHL
3rd (79) - Mac Bennett (D)
3rd (86) - Steve Quailer (F)
4th (97) - Josiah Didier (D)
4th (113) - Mark MacMillan (F)
5th (133) - Joe Stejskal (D)
5th (142) - Andrew Conboy (F)
6th (169) - Dustin Walsh (F)
7th (192) - Scott Kishel (D)
7th (198) - Colin Sullivan (D)
7th (199) - Mike Cichy (F)
7th (229) - Philippe Paquet (D)
7th (206) - Patrick Johnson (F)
Maybe Bennett and ...? could play at least a game in the NHL; 1.5/12
Result: 12,5%
CHL:
3rd (65) - Olivier Fortier (F)
3rd (66) - Ryan White (F)
3rd (73) - Yannick Weber (D)
4th (108) - Olivier Archambault (F)
4th (117) - Morgan Ellis (D)
5th (130) - Mathieu Aubin (F)
5th (138) - Darren Dietz (D)
5th (139) - Gabriel Dumont (F)
5th (147) - Brendon Gallagher (F)
6th (190) - Matt D'Agostini (F)
7th (199) - Cameron Cepek (D)
White, Weber, Dumont, D'Agostini and Gallagher have already played in the NHL, and probably at least one between Ellis and Dietz will play in the NHL; 6/11
Result: 54,5%
Many wasted picks... Teams that are active signing graduated players from the NCAA have arguably better success then us with our College/NCAA players.
Also, I just want to add that drafting more European players with our late rounds pick could have also been an interesting possibility instead.
In the 2012 draft, Trevor Timmins seemed to have learned from his mistakes selecting no player from college league with his lower picks. He picked Bozon(3rd), Vail(4th), Hudon(5th) and Nystrom(6th). With Bozon's incredible season and Hudon being able to make team Canada U20 with an other year of eligibility remaining, Timmins' lower picks in the 2012 draft is among his best selections since he has been hired.
Discuss!
* By the way, I already know that it is normal for NCAA players to have slower development and that they are more 7th picks in the NCAA side's . But still... the gap is still considerable.
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