GDT: Devils vs. Stars 8:30 MSG+ part II

[billingtons ghost]

You may wind up being right, but if you are right, it will be because Blackwood really isn't that good or just isn't ready to be a good NHL goalie yet.

But nobody is gonna keep stopping pucks at the rate Blackwood did before last game.

See man.. that's where I think you and I completely differ and disagree. It could certainly be that what you say is true, and that Blackwood isn't good or isn't ready... but my point is:

...with this defense in front of him, (or ANY goalie)... it won't matter if he IS good and IS ready because he'll still get walloped. I wouldn't be surprised if Vasilevsky, Bobrovsky et al would all have sub .900 SV% on this team at this juncture.

So how can we tell? How can we reliably evaluate goalie play for our team with such awfulness in front of them?

 

[Bleedred]

See Schneider, Cory, circa 2014. Sometimes, being shelled on a bad team makes GMs wonder what a goalie could do with a real defense in front of him - OR, it destroys their confidence completely. See Schneider, Cory, circa 2017-18.

Or Jaro Halak, etc...

There are far more Cam Talbots and Grubauers who play behind decent defensive teams and parlay that into a better gig where they end up looking like garbage ultimately when the defense fails in front of them... but there are examples of the opposite, too.

Talbot looked good behind a not so good Edmonton team his first two years there.

He's looked mediocre to poor ever since.

I think what we've seen with Talbot is that he was much better as a sheltered backup. So was Rask when Thomas still played there, so was Martin Jones for his first year in LA, even Schneider was in Vancouver when playing fewer games. They didn't all become bad when they had their workload increased, but that's something that happens to almost every goalie that's very good strong as a backup and plays really good with limited games.

 

[billingtons ghost]

Talbot looked good behind a not so good Edmonton team his first two years there.

He's looked mediocre to poor ever since.

I think what we've seen with Talbot is that he was much better as a sheltered backup. So was Rask when Thomas still played there, so was Martin Jones for his first year in LA, even Schneider was in Vancouver when playing fewer games. They didn't all become bad when they had their workload increased, but that's something that happens to almost every goalie that's very good strong as a backup and plays really good with limited games.

I guess this could be true - but how can we tell? Hasek was a backup. There are definitely guys who start as backups and that's all they'll ever be, even if they get a starting gig... (and eventually fail in it) - but there are certainly understudies who play their way into #1 jobs.... start out as 1/2,... then becomes 1a/1b and finally take over.

 

[Bleedred]

See man.. that's where I think you and I completely differ and disagree. It could certainly be that what you say is true, and that Blackwood isn't good or isn't ready... but my point is:

...with this defense in front of him, (or ANY goalie)... it won't matter if he IS good and IS ready because he'll still get walloped. I wouldn't be surprised if Vasilevsky, Bobrovsky et al would all have sub .900 SV% on this team at this juncture.

So how can we tell? How can we reliably evaluate goalie play for our team with such awfulness in front of them?

Come on now, even Kinkaid has a .901% on this team, you really think Bobrovsky and Vasilevskiy (who are clearly better) wouldn't?

Anything could happen, either could have a bad year. Bobrovsky hasn't been that good this year and he's fairly high on the stoppable goal count.

 

[Bleedred]

I guess this could be true - but how can we tell? Hasek was a backup. There are definitely guys who start as backups and that's all they'll ever be, even if they get a starting gig... (and eventually fail in it) - but there are certainly understudies who play their way into #1 jobs.... start out as 1/2,... then becomes 1a/1b and finally take over.

Well goalies like Rask and Schneider had pretty high ceilings, which is why they still played at a high level for a little after becoming a starter. Schneider did until injuries destroyed him and while Rask hasn't been great, he's not going around having seasons like Talbot has the last couple.

I was always a bit skeptical of Talbot. The guy didn't even make the NHL at all until he was 26 and it was only because Marty Biron got destroyed by Tomas Hertl and the Sharks in one game early that season.

 

[haak84]

Come on now, even Kinkaid has a .901% on this team, you really think Bobrovsky and Vasilevskiy (who are clearly better) wouldn't?

Anything could happen, either could have a bad year. Bobrovsky hasn't been that good this year and he's fairly high on the stoppable goal count.

vasilevskiy has not been much better this year. hes played on an elite team. i could see him having a .900 save % on this team. i could probably see 15 goalies having about that save % on this team.

 

[billingtons ghost]

Come on now, even Kinkaid has a .901% on this team, you really think Bobrovsky and Vasilevskiy (who are clearly better) wouldn't?

Anything could happen, either could have a bad year. Bobrovsky hasn't been that good this year and he's pretty high on the stoppable goal count.

Honestly, I just don't know and that's the point. I've seen KK play a low-event game, controlling the gameplay, controlling rebounds well, and making good reads through screens and in traffic. I've seen him get distracted and let garbage in too - but let's not pretend any goalie is perfect.

With the backdoor tap-ins, terribly played two-on-ones etc... I mean, I think MacBlack's athleticism allows him to make saves that KK cannot - getting post to post like Quick... and maybe Vas and Bobo are like that too - but we saw Vas end up on the shelf because of the same thing when Tampa wasn't playing D early in the season. It's possible that both those guys are already on IR if they play for us.

 

[billingtons ghost]

Well goalies like Rask and Schneider had pretty high ceilings, which is why they still played at a high level for a little after becoming a starter. Schneider did until injuries destroyed him and while Rask hasn't been great, he's not going around having seasons like Talbot has the last couple.

I was always a bit skeptical of Talbot. The guy didn't even make the NHL at all until he was 26 and it was only because Marty Biron got destroyed by Tomas Hertl and the Sharks in one game early that season.

That's fair -
That was a great game, btw. Last one Biron played, right? f*** Biron. Hate that guy.

 

[Bleedred]

vasilevskiy has not been much better this year. hes played on an elite team. i could see him having a .900 save % on this team. i could probably see 15 goalies having about that save % on this team.

He's been much better than Domingue, who plays behind the Lightning. Domingue lets in a lot of laughable goals.

 

[Bleedred]

That's fair -
That was a great game, btw. Last one Biron played, right? **** Biron. Hate that guy.

I think he got into one more game after that and was yanked. I believe Lundqvist started the game where Hertl did that to him. but Biron wound up in there during relief. According to hockey reference game logs, he played one more game after that, 4 nights later and that was it.

 

[devilsblood]

See man.. that's where I think you and I completely differ and disagree. It could certainly be that what you say is true, and that Blackwood isn't good or isn't ready... but my point is:

...with this defense in front of him, (or ANY goalie)... it won't matter if he IS good and IS ready because he'll still get walloped. I wouldn't be surprised if Vasilevsky, Bobrovsky et al would all have sub .900 SV% on this team at this juncture.

So how can we tell? How can we reliably evaluate goalie play for our team with such awfulness in front of them?

So you are making the argument that Kink is as good as any goalie in the league and no goalie would have a better save % if they played for NJ then Kink currently has?

 

[Devilsfan992]

Our defense in a nutshell.

Butcher leaving his assignment to help Zacha on the half walls.

Noesen covering the outside of his assignment, leaving the middle of the ice.

Severson in very good position to cut off both the puck handler and his man

Instead he follows his man as he backs up towards the paint, leaving a wide open lane for Seguin to get a good scoring chance.

 

[Nubmer6]

Our defense in a nutshell.

Butcher leaving his assignment to help Zacha on the half walls.
View attachment 171717

Noesen covering the outside of his assignment, leaving the middle of the ice.

View attachment 171723

Severson in very good position to cut off both the puck handler and his man

View attachment 171719

Instead he follows his man as he backs up towards the paint, leaving a wide open lane for Seguin to get a good scoring chance.

View attachment 171721

That's essentially a 2 on 1 where Seveerson has to play the pass and trust the goalie to make the save. Butcher should never have gone to the boards.

 

[Devilsfan992]

Here's the 4 on 4 goal allowed. No explanation is needed here.

 

[Devilsfan992]

That's essentially a 2 on 1 where Seveerson has to play the pass and trust the goalie to make the save. Butcher should never have gone to the boards.

I agree. Severson could have played it a bit better, but the challenge by Butcher was overaggressive and left that area of the ice wide open.

I probably could do 4 or 5 more of these with similar outcomes.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Out of 75 goalies. Keith is 49th in GAA. Cory is 73rd.

Wooooooof

 

[BahlDeep]

It’s pretty clear what is going on here. Keith can do no wrong apparently, and the idea of a kid coming in and playing better then him bugs some people.

Completely false, I hope MB29 steals the spot light and becomes our #1 goaltender.

 

[BahlDeep]

Because Marty, Hasek and Roy were not all a **** of a lot better than Keith Kinkaid or whatever is left of Cory Schneider's bone dust?

Do you know how bad some of those Buffalo teams with Hasek were? They were WAY worse than this team and they made the playoffs every year, getting badly outshot nightly through the first 5 or so years that Hasek was there.

You keep on talking about Cory and Keith, when I didn't even mention any of them... are you okay bud?

 

[Bleedred]

You keep on talking about Cory and Keith, when I didn't even mention any of them... are you okay bud?

Nice deflection try, but you kind of did. Without actually mentioning names.

''There's no goaltender, it could be Prime Marty, Hasek , Roy that would succeed with that kind of ****ty defensive structure.''

The only goaltenders that aren't suceeding in this kind of ''Shitty defensive structure'' so far, are Keith Kinkaid and Cory Schneider.

That doesn't mean Blackwood will continue to, but when you break it down, why would anybody be surprised that Kinkaid and Schneider aren't succeeding on this team? One guy has been a backup for more of his career than not and has been asked to play way more games this year because of the other guy, who I'll get to next. And that other guy has been in a drastic decline for 2 years, unlike any elite goalie I've seen in decades and looks to have bottomed out, possibly for good, due to hip problems.

By the way, the same shit was said about Marty at the end. ''No goalie would be good here with this defense. Look at all the minutes Bryce Salvador plays here!''. Then we got a goalie that was and then it changed to ''Oh no you don't! He's not better than Marty! He doesn't win like Marty still does!''.

One other note. Dominik Hasek played for some of the worst teams to consistently make the playoffs. They even missed the playoffs one of those years, where he had the best save percentage in the league and also led the league in losses. There ain't no way in hell the defense or this structure is worse than some of those mid to late 90's Sabres teams. You could have at least said ''There's no way (insert pretty good modern day goalie) would succeed with that kind of shitty defensive structure'' rather than hyperbolizing your point by bringing up 3 HOF goalies, the best of that era, one of which who won Vezina's and constantly carried mediocre or bad teams to the playoffs. At least Haak used Bobrovsky or Vasilevskiy.

 

[BahlDeep]

Again, I said succeed. Your ability to read is truly bad. Fine, I shouldn't have said Hasek, but we probably won't ever see a peak as high as Hasek's in our lifetime.

Again, I am talking about structure. Marty never had to play behind a defensive structure that was this bad.
I am totally aware that after the 05 lockout, we didn't have the best defense in terms of personel, but we never looked this bad defensively, absolutely never.

 

[Bleedred]

Again, I said succeed. Your ability to read is truly bad. Fine, I shouldn't have said Hasek, but we probably won't ever see a peak as high as Hasek's in our lifetime.

Again, I am talking about structure. Marty never had to play behind a defensive structure that was this bad.
I am totally aware that after the 05 lockout, we didn't have the best defense in terms of personel, but we never looked this bad defensively, absolutely never.

I think anybody who can remember this guy would beg to differ on that one.

And even I acknowledged that Marty didn’t look good while he coached. Though he still wasn't as bad as Cory has been for the last year. His glove hand was almost non-existent that year. Even after Lemaire came back he was getting beaten a lot of games to the glove on shots he stopped probably 70% of the time in prior years. His glove hand came back the next year, but other parts of his game started to disappear.

 

[BahlDeep]

I think anybody who can remember this guy would beg to differ on that one.

View attachment 171869

And even I acknowledged that Marty didn’t look good while he coached. Though he still wasn't as bad as Cory has been for the last year. His glove hand was almost non-existent that year. Even after Lemaire came back he was getting beaten a lot of games to the glove on shots he stopped probably 70% of the time in prior years. His glove hand came back the next year, but other parts of his game started to disappear.

Jesus christ, Cory sucks, I get that. No one is comparing Marty to Cory lol

 

[Bleedred]

Jesus christ, Cory sucks, I get that. No one is comparing Marty to Cory lol

And when it comes to being a long term starter, I don't Kinkaid is very good either. Is Blackwood? I honestly didn't have hopes that he was ready yet, before I saw him play in the NHL. Sample Size is too small.