GDT: Devils vs. Stars 8:30 MSG+ part II

[haak84]

Kinkaid would be Carolinas starter in a heartbeat.

 

[BahlDeep]

It's insane how short sighted people are when it comes to goaltender. There's no goaltender, it could be Prime Marty, Hasek , Roy that would succeed with that kind of shitty defensive structure.

When Blackwood numbers will eventually start to come down, I can't wait to see how quick this whole ship is going to turn around and start blaming him.

 

[NJDevs26]

Carolina will also have better choices in the offseason when they'd actually go looking for a goalie, and I think they have at least one guy (Nedeljkovic) that they're trying to develop.

And you keep giving KK's record 'without facing the top teams' this year but his record 'other than' the 16-3-1 stretch last year is just meh if we're going to play that game.

It's insane how short sighted people are when it comes to goaltender. There's no goaltender, it could be Prime Marty, Hasek , Roy that would succeed with that kind of ****ty defensive structure.

When Blackwood numbers will eventually start to come down, I can't wait to see how quick this whole ship is going to turn around and start blaming him.

He won't get blame but he's also gonna get more slack being a kid and the shiny new prospect. KK was never really supposed to be a starting goalie, they've already gotten more return on investment than could ever have been hoped for but his career numbers have really been up and down.

 

[haak84]

It's insane how short sighted people are when it comes to goaltender. There's no goaltender, it could be Prime Marty, Hasek , Roy that would succeed with that kind of ****ty defensive structure.

When Blackwood numbers will eventually start to come down, I can't wait to see how quick this whole ship is going to turn around and start blaming him.

Below average team playing loose and sloppy defense against the leagues elite offensive talents— its gotta be the goalie though.

 

[haak84]

Carolina will also have better choices in the offseason when they'd actually go looking for a goalie, and I think they have at least one guy (Nedeljkovic) that they're trying to develop.

And you keep giving KK's record 'without facing the top teams' this year but his record 'other than' the 16-3-1 stretch last year is just meh if we're going to play that game.



He won't get blame but he's also gonna get more slack being a kid and the shiny new prospect. KK was never really supposed to be a starting goalie, they've already gotten more return on investment than could ever have been hoped for but his career numbers have really been up and down.

A 20 game stretch is much more relevant than a 4 game sample where the team was outmatched. Kinkaid could also go on another 16-3-1 stretch this year given the upcoming competition. The fact that he has done it recently and has played well for a majority of the time over 60 games.

Also what better options? Bobrovsky for sure. Varlamov yes. Then Kinkaid is in the next pool. Does Carolina want to invest in bob when they’re developing a goalie?

Goalies just aren’t as good as you think and Kinkaid isn’t as bad.

 

[NJDevs26]

And nobody's saying the defense hasn't been bad for the goalies, but by the same token goalies (like coaches) don't get opportunities on good teams if they just play to the mean on bad teams.

 

[haak84]

Carolina is not a good team. Kinkaid will probably look for a short term deal with lots of garaunteed playing time to trying recoup his value. Based on the market and his play over the past 60 games as a starter. I expect him to get that.

 

[Bleedred]

I'll admit I haven't watched a ton of Bruins games - only highlights really. From what I've seen Halak has been pretty good, I thought. That said -

what you are doing with Halak then - is proving one or both of my points: that #1, his terrible SV% last year was likely because of the defense (or maybe he's a crappy goalie?). #2, his SV% this year is inflated and doesn't tell the whole tale... and in both cases SV% is highly dependent upon the play in front of him. Right? No? Can't be both ways:

2017: Bad goalie bad SV% or bad defense, mediocre goalie, bad SV%
2018: Bad goalie good SV% or good defense, mediocre goalie, good SV%.

I'm sure you can have bad goalie bad SV%, and good goalie, good SV% - but I'm just saying it is mutable.

In my findings this year, there's been a few deviations. Both Rask and Halak have looked worse than their save percentage indicates.

I have found that Jake Allen and Mike Smith have looked every bit as terrible as their save percentage indicates, especially Mike Smith.

Another goalie that's looked completely embarrassing is our very own Cory Schneider. I have him down for 13 stoppable goals on 29 allowed in total. That's 45% of the goals allowed are stoppable. Scott Darling and Garret Sparks have a better save percentage than Schneider (not Darling by much) and both have a similar stoppable goal percentage. Kinkaid is under 30% and a lot of the guys in save percentage near him I have at a similar percentage.

Frederik Andersen and John Gibson are near the top in save percentage and they're also at my lowest in stoppable goal percentage among starters.

 

[Bleedred]

He won’t.

The devils are 37-36-10 since the start of the year. Kinkaid is 33-17-9 during that time. Goalies not named Kinkaid are 4-19-1. But a bad stretch against tough competition is more important than these facts.

Context is needed here.

Schneider has went 0-15-3 (or is it 0-16-3?) since that time and his regular season save percentage is like .850%-something during that stretch. Using Kinkaid's record and non-Kinkaid goalies records is a little bit deceiving here. I guess Appleby got one decision in there, but Blackwood has been 3-2-0 and Schneider has been in net for every other game and has had one of the worst stretches (in save percentage) in the modern era during that time.

 

[Bleedred]

i don’t think it’s very likely that kinkaid re-signs. if he doesn’t start the next game, i think he’s as good as gone

Over not starting one game? You really think he's gonna refuse to sign if we don't start him the next game?

I think he could be in tomorrow, for what it's worth.

 

[Emperoreddy]

It’s pretty clear what is going on here. Keith can do no wrong apparently, and the idea of a kid coming in and playing better then him bugs some people.

 

[MartyOwns]

Over not starting one game? You really think he's gonna refuse to sign if we don't start him the next game?

I think he could be in tomorrow, for what it's worth.

i think he starts too, but i’m just doing simple math here

hynes throws him under the bus after his last loss
+
hynes signs multi year extension
+
not getting a start after blackwood’s 5 GA in the loss
=

 

[MartyOwns]

It’s pretty clear what is going on here. Keith can do no wrong apparently, and the idea of a kid coming in and playing better then him bugs some people.

is that a reference to my post? if blackwood keeps playing like this, i think we should trade kinkaid if we can. we definitely shouldn’t re-sign him. doesn’t bug me

 

[Emperoreddy]

is that a reference to my post? if blackwood keeps playing like this, i think we should trade kinkaid if we can. we definitely shouldn’t re-sign him. doesn’t bug me

No not yours.

 

[Nubmer6]

is that a reference to my post? if blackwood keeps playing like this, i think we should trade kinkaid if we can. we definitely shouldn’t re-sign him. doesn’t bug me

I don't think it's a good idea to put all our eggs into the basket of a goalie that's one year removed from being demoted out of the AHL. I don't have faith that Corey's going to regain his form, so my preference is to run Blackwood and Kinkaid as 1a and 1b options, especially if Kinky doesn't gain us a significant return.

 

[billingtons ghost]

It’s pretty clear what is going on here. Keith can do no wrong apparently, and the idea of a kid coming in and playing better then him bugs some people.

Good grief... how do you jump to that conclusion?

I think we're all firmly on board the Big Mac wagon, no? - just that we're concerned the sloppy D play will hurt his development ultimately - the way it has destroyed the confidence of Cory Schneider and nearly wrecked KK on a couple of occasions. Do you guys have such a short memory that you don't remember the halcyon days earlier this season when KK could do no wrong because he bailed this team out repeatedly when they played like garbage?

His post luck has run a little dry recently, and with it went the winning.

What I really want to see is our defense tighten it up to like 25 shots a game, with few breakaways, odd-man rushes and back door tap-ins that a goalie has to kill himself to try to save; and I don't care if KK plays another game this season as long as it isn't putting MB29 on the shelf with a hip problem having to go post-to-post 20 times a game.

 

[MartyOwns]

I don't think it's a good idea to put all our eggs into the basket of a goalie that's one year removed from being demoted out of the AHL. I don't have faith that Corey's going to regain his form, so my preference is to run Blackwood and Kinkaid as 1a and 1b options, especially if Kinky doesn't gain us a significant return.

well yeah true, my post was assuming a couple of things:

-cory’s not going anywhere
-kinkaid won’t want to have to compete with 2 other goalies for playing time

if either of those assumptions are incorrect then yeah we have some other options

 

[haak84]

It’s pretty clear what is going on here. Keith can do no wrong apparently, and the idea of a kid coming in and playing better then him bugs some people.

not sure how youve come to this conclusion. i really like blackwood and what he brings. its just the fact people think there are a good amount of goalies that would produce better than kinkaid when thats not the case. if and when blackwood falls back down to earth it will look a lot like when kinkaid has struggled and schneider has looked awful.

 

[haak84]

my god just look at the difference in the devils talent and their competition. look st the sloppiness of their team defense and the opportunities they allow elite scorers on a nightly basis and still come to the conclusion that its goaltending is beyond me.

blackwood played great and allowed 5 goals and had a schneider like save %. that has happened so many times this season. against better teams and people still think prime marty is going to reincarnate and lead this team to an 8th seed

 

[Bleedred]

It's insane how short sighted people are when it comes to goaltender. There's no goaltender, it could be Prime Marty, Hasek , Roy that would succeed with that kind of ****ty defensive structure.

When Blackwood numbers will eventually start to come down, I can't wait to see how quick this whole ship is going to turn around and start blaming him.

Because Marty, Hasek and Roy were not all a f*** of a lot better than Keith Kinkaid or whatever is left of Cory Schneider's bone dust?

Do you know how bad some of those Buffalo teams with Hasek were? They were WAY worse than this team and they made the playoffs every year, getting badly outshot nightly through the first 5 or so years that Hasek was there.

 

[Bleedred]

not sure how youve come to this conclusion. i really like blackwood and what he brings. its just the fact people think there are a good amount of goalies that would produce better than kinkaid when thats not the case. if and when blackwood falls back down to earth it will look a lot like when kinkaid has struggled and schneider has looked awful.

You may wind up being right, but if you are right, it will be because Blackwood really isn't that good or just isn't ready to be a good NHL goalie yet.

But nobody is gonna keep stopping pucks at the rate Blackwood did before last game.

 

[Bleedred]

well yeah true, my post was assuming a couple of things:

-cory’s not going anywhere
-kinkaid won’t want to have to compete with 2 other goalies for playing time

if either of those assumptions are incorrect then yeah we have some other options

Cory's getting bought out or LTIR'd after this year.

I'm pretty certain of that. Let's see what happens. I would almost guarantee that Shero has already told Hynes of this when he extended him, but obviously we'll never know that.

The only way I think he plays here after this year is if he's injured this offseason, but not badly enough for it to be permanently, where we're not able to buy him out, but I really think he's close to LTIRement. Especially after Friedman said there were rumblings this past offseason that his hip injury was going to be career ending. And if he is here next year, I think the leash is going to be even shorter and they'll wind up Scott Darling'ing him after even fewer games than he's played this year, if he looks that bad. He'll be in the AHL and bought out after next season, which then the buyout will be pretty easy to digest with just two years remaining.

 

[haak84]

You may wind up being right, but if you are right, it will be because Blackwood really isn't that good or just isn't ready to be a good NHL goalie yet.

But nobody is gonna keep stopping pucks at the rate Blackwood did before last game.

i dont think thats the case. i would be happy if blackwood performs slightly better for the rest of the year. hes not going to face anywhere near the competition keith did in the first half. if he performs above that, ill be ecstatic. i also think keith will step it up as well. should be a good tandem going forward.

and agreed on the second point because blackwood would be an all time great if he played like he has the past five games throughout his career. and people are crazy to think i wouldnt love to see that happen.

 

[billingtons ghost]

And nobody's saying the defense hasn't been bad for the goalies, but by the same token goalies (like coaches) don't get opportunities on good teams if they just play to the mean on bad teams.

See Schneider, Cory, circa 2014. Sometimes, being shelled on a bad team makes GMs wonder what a goalie could do with a real defense in front of him - OR, it destroys their confidence completely. See Schneider, Cory, circa 2017-18.

Or Jaro Halak, etc...

There are far more Cam Talbots and Grubauers who play behind decent defensive teams and parlay that into a better gig where they end up looking like garbage ultimately when the defense fails in front of them... but there are examples of the opposite, too.

 

[Bleedred]

i dont think thats the case. i would be happy if blackwood performs slightly better for the rest of the year. hes not going to face anywhere near the competition keith did in the first half. if he performs above that, ill be ecstatic. i also think keith will step it up as well. should be a good tandem going forward.

and agreed on the second point because blackwood would be an all time great if he played like he has the past five games throughout his career. and people are crazy to think i wouldnt love to see that happen.

I wouldn't mind this being next year's tandem, but only if Blackwood can continue to look pretty good.

We need at least one upgrade in net for next year, from the tandem we started out with this year. Too early to say yet if Blackwood can be that upgrade, but it's been an encouraging 5 starts so far.