GDT: Devils vs. Stars 8:30 MSG+ part II

Discussion in 'New Jersey Devils' started by NJDevs26, Jan 2, 2019.

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  1. haak84

    haak84 Registered User

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    Yeah that wasn’t easily and once your past 15 names it becomes debateable which is my point. A lot of those goalies are having more below average seasons than Kinkaid and would provide little improvement outside of 5 guys. It’s a crapshoot and Kinkaid is average. Most goalies in this league are. Scoring is also up. Devils and Kinkaid have faced the toughest competition. Biggest problem with this team is not goaltending. And although Kinkaid has been average he is is still better than or equal to almost half the starters in this league.
     
  2. Bleedred

    Bleedred Martin Jones sucks

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    I'd say Quick looks bad this year more due to injuries. He's been much better the last several weeks. The other two goalies that have played significant games have been much better than him this year though. Offense is really their biggest problem.

    Grubauer was brutal last night and allowed 2 poor goals against the Sharks, but he also hasn't been as bad as his save percentage this year by my count. I don't think Luongo has either (not like Reimer, who has been a joke), but he's also been injured. Halak has looked worse than his save percentage this year. He looks as bad as he did with the Islanders going by the eye test. He's not getting scored on as much, but he's not facing 50 shots either.

    And when I made that list, I'm taking into consideration a larger body of work, not how they've been this year.

    Jones hasn't been as bad as his save percentage, but he also hasn't been good. He's an average starter, but nothing more.
     
  3. haak84

    haak84 Registered User

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    Kinkaid has been better than a handful of those goalies over the past 60 games. And I expect him to improve in the second half much like last year.
     
  4. Bleedred

    Bleedred Martin Jones sucks

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    I don't see him as better than half the starters in the league. I think he's still a backup.

    You have a fair point about the tough competition. A goalie will get scored on more when facing Tampa three times and Toronto two times than when facing the LA Kings 2 or 3 times. That's definitely a fair point.

    I don't see Kinkaid as better than half the starters in the league, but maybe a third of them.
     
  5. haak84

    haak84 Registered User

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    You can’t definitely name 15 better goalies and yet he’s not a starter?
     
  6. Bleedred

    Bleedred Martin Jones sucks

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    I think he'll probably improve if he plays less.

    He was playing too many games, due to no serviceable backup before Blackwood came along.
     
  7. Bleedred

    Bleedred Martin Jones sucks

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    I did name over 15. I named 19 that are DEFINITELY BETTER!

    NINETEEN!

    That's greater 15 the last I checked?

    And that's definitely better, I think there are probably another 5 that are better or even at the very least.

    Then there's 5 or so definitely worse, and maybe even more if we start going through every team's backup.
     
  8. haak84

    haak84 Registered User

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    They aren’t though. In the past calendar year Kinkaid has been better than:

    Quick
    Holtby
    Lundqvist
    Price
    Allen
    Jones

    And more. He’s played more games and won more than some of those you listed. He was more of a starter than a few of those goalies.
     
  9. haak84

    haak84 Registered User

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    Kinkaid has allowed 22 goals on 101 shot and is o-4 against Tampa and Toronto. He has respectable stats if you take away those starts where the devils were absolutely outmatched.
     
  10. Bleedred

    Bleedred Martin Jones sucks

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    Well, he's definitely better than Allen. I'm not arguing that.

    Price? Maybe. Jones? Not really, and I'm not high on Jones, which everyone at the Sharks board can tell you.

    Yes, he's been better than some of those goalies this year, but I think you need to go past more than a year. Not to mention, it's also easier to be good as a backup than good as a starter. So maybe even if we go back to 16-17, Kinkaid has been better than some of these guys, but it was a backup.

    Which is why I said up until fairly recently, I'm not convinced Kinkaid is better than Schneider now, but I'm definitely convinced at this point. The last 2+ years are indicative of that, where Kinkaid has played not quite as many games as Schneider, but a sizable amount and Schneider has been a .901% regular season goalie since November 17th of 2016 and a .903% if you include the playoff series in that span.
     
  11. Bleedred

    Bleedred Martin Jones sucks

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    While that's true, that's cherry picking. How about the goalies in their division that have to play those teams 4 times a year? It's like saying (this is just an example and for instance by the way) ''Vasilevskiy would have broke a save percentage record if he didn't have to play the Leafs 4 times this year!''.

    It's right up there with ''Cory had a .923% for the first 28 games last year! That should mean as much as his last 25 games since then!'' despite the fact that Schneider's barely a .900% goalie since before Thanksgiving of 2016.
     
  12. NJDevs26

    NJDevs26 We suck again!

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    I can’t put Keith on the same level as actual starting goalies when he can only do it for 20 games at a time (end of last year, beginning of this year) before short circuiting. That’s a good fireman/backup, not a real starter. And he’s not getting a starter contract this offseason.
     
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  13. haak84

    haak84 Registered User

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    Did you watch those games? I know you did. It’s not cherry picking the devils were embarrassed in those games. Like I’ve been saying they are what they are. Against any team they get outmatched. Vancouver did it for a whole period but couldn’t score. Toronto, Tampa and Columbus have embarrassed us. The eye test and the stats prove this.
     
  14. haak84

    haak84 Registered User

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    Maybe he’s been behind a team playing awful and against much tougher competition? If anything this is just a stretch and over 60 games he should improve to a .910 and 2.8 goalie. Which looking at the schedule and splits suggests Kinkaid will improve.
     
  15. Bleedred

    Bleedred Martin Jones sucks

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    I thought he wasn't good in a couple of the Toronto games. Let in some weak goals. The Tampa game I don't think he really had a chance on any of those goals, except for one of them. I'm talking in the first game against them. Probably also let in a really weak one in the second Tampa game that he played.
     
  16. haak84

    haak84 Registered User

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    Let’s not mention how awful the devils have looked at 3 on 3 and the amount of times they let Kinkaid out to dry which has had a huge negative impact on his save %. But showcasing all the times the devils have looked like the worst team in the league is just cherry picking.
     
  17. haak84

    haak84 Registered User

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    And the team? They were absolutely embarrassed.
     
  18. billingtons ghost

    billingtons ghost Registered User

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    I'll admit I haven't watched a ton of Bruins games - only highlights really. From what I've seen Halak has been pretty good, I thought. That said -

    what you are doing with Halak then - is proving one or both of my points: that #1, his terrible SV% last year was likely because of the defense (or maybe he's a crappy goalie?). #2, his SV% this year is inflated and doesn't tell the whole tale... and in both cases SV% is highly dependent upon the play in front of him. Right? No? Can't be both ways:

    2017: Bad goalie bad SV% or bad defense, mediocre goalie, bad SV%
    2018: Bad goalie good SV% or good defense, mediocre goalie, good SV%.

    I'm sure you can have bad goalie bad SV%, and good goalie, good SV% - but I'm just saying it is mutable.
     
  19. haak84

    haak84 Registered User

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    Kinkaid not against the 2 best teams in the league

    12-6-6
    2.48 GAA
    .916 save %

    I mean he’s been above average outside of a handful of games. Now factor in his regulation stats are much better than his 3 on 3.
     
  20. haak84

    haak84 Registered User

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    Lol Keith had a miserable December. His competition in losses:

    Winnipeg
    Tampa bay
    San Jose
    Nashville
    Toronto
    Columbus

    Wins:
    Los Angeles
    Ottawa

    Notice a theme? Maybe it’s because his competition outclasses and outmatched the devils. Not that he fits the narrative of being nothing more than a backup. Would love to see him go to a good team and be a serviceable 40-50 game starter.
     
  21. SpeakingOfTheDevils

    SpeakingOfTheDevils Devils Advocate

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    I think his ceiling is a guy that can reliably run a 1A/1B tandem with another fringe starter.

    Frankly, I wouldn't mind seeing that next year with Blackwood.

    But it's certainly a stretch to call him a bonafide starting goalie. You hit the nail on the head - he has stretches where he looks like one, but then he bottoms out and reverts to the mean. That isn't something any team would be comfortable hanging their hat on as their starter.
     
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  22. haak84

    haak84 Registered User

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    This isn’t Kinkaid reverting to the mean. That is going to be when his stats improve when he plays weaker competition. His stats and his play are a reflection of a below average team with a really tough schedule.

    He has looked like a starting goalie outside December for a calendar year. As noted above the devils had an insanely tough schedule in December and also forgot how to play hockey.
     
  23. MartyOwns

    MartyOwns i’ll ask daneyko

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    i don’t think it’s very likely that kinkaid re-signs. if he doesn’t start the next game, i think he’s as good as gone
     
  24. NJDevs26

    NJDevs26 We suck again!

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    Keith's not really getting his choice of where he goes...he'll get a bunch of backup-tweener offers, depends who offers the most money/most playing time.
     
  25. haak84

    haak84 Registered User

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    He won’t.

    The devils are 37-36-10 since the start of the year. Kinkaid is 33-17-9 during that time. Goalies not named Kinkaid are 4-19-1. But a bad stretch against tough competition is more important than these facts.
     
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