GDT: Devils vs. Stars 8:30 MSG+ part II

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Bleedred

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more than 20%. we look like this a majority of the time on the road or whenever we play a top team.
Dallas is not a top team.

We've looked like this against Tampa all three times and Toronto both times. Remember, those teams can take you out of a game earlier and don't need 40 shots, but there's less shame in getting outplayed or lit up by them than most other teams.

We looked bad in Winnipeg (even guess who was in net), we looked really bad in Ottawa, which was probably the most embarrassing loss of the season. We looked really bad both games against the Sharks, Kinkaid flattered the score in the home game and probably even stole it. We looked abysmal in the first game against the Blue Jackets in Columbus, Blackwood flattered the score in that game.
 

haak84

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Dallas is not a top team.

We've looked like this against Tampa all three times and Toronto both times. Remember, those teams can take you out of a game earlier and don't need 40 shots, but there's less shame in getting outplayed or lit up by them than most other teams.

We looked bad in Winnipeg (even guess who was in net), we looked really bad in Ottawa, which was probably the most embarrassing loss of the season. We looked really bad both games against the Sharks, Kinkaid flattered the score in the home game and probably even stole it. We looked abysmal in the first game against the Blue Jackets in Columbus, Blackwood flattered the score in that game.

never said dallas is a top team. its just usually a given that we will be outplayed by one 80% of the time. i was refuting your 20% tops example. you just brought up 10 games which id already more than 20%.

this team is bad, goaltending wont change that
 

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never said dallas is a top team. its just usually a given that we will be outplayed by one 80% of the time. i was refuting your 20% tops example. you just brought up 10 games which id already more than 20%.

this team is bad, goaltending wont change that
And when Keith Kinkaid has been the only serviceable goaltender on your roster for the first 35 games of the year, your goaltending is probably gonna be bad.

What team's have a worse goalie tandem than Keith Kinkaid and nobody? There really aren't many and that's what we had for the first 34 or 35 games of the season.

Kinkaid is already probably not good enough to be your starter for more than a couple months and that's what we were seeing towards the end. I know you don't think this way, but when looking at the 31 best goalies on each team in the league, Kinkaid is down near the bottom for me.

I'd like to know which goalie that's the best on their team is worse than Kinkaid? There's probably a couple that are about even, but I can't think of many worse. It's not an indictment on him being a bad goalie, as much as it's saying that he shouldn't be your starter. And when he's your starter, you're probably not gonna be very good and when he's your only serviceable goalie, you get a last place team in the conference or damn near it.
 
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Triumph

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never said dallas is a top team. its just usually a given that we will be outplayed by one 80% of the time. i was refuting your 20% tops example. you just brought up 10 games which id already more than 20%.

this team is bad, goaltending wont change that

The team is average to below-average, the goaltending is bad. Hence you have a below-average team.
 

billingtons ghost

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Cory's been bad for 100 games. I'm surprised that his biggest critic back when he was actually still great, thinks that it's the defense or the team's fault that he sucks.

99% badness of the D corps? I'd say it's 99% because he has a bad hip.

I was a pretty big critic, that's true - and I still believe his rebound control sucked and caused him to have inflated stats - 99% is a hyperbole, I'd admit.

I think he always was a slightly above average goaltender that got too much hype on this board because of SV% alone - and that he created his own danger; and who's game lent itself to getting barraged if his defense wasn't very good.

Once we put more chaotic guys in front of him, it just went off a cliff.

I don't think Kinky's SV% is reflective of how well he's played behind a terrible defense.

I (sadly) think you'll see the same thing with Big Mac that we saw with Cory; as the defense wears his confidence down.

I'd love to believe that he's got a wellspring of 42-save performances and that a .970 SV% is sustainable - but for little fault of his own (other than being a young goalie that will have some rebound control issues, confidence issues etc) - he's going to go off a cliff too.

I would love that his mental makeup is so excellent that my above statement is completely wrong and he goes on to a wonderful career and leads us to the playoffs this season... From watching the past few games, I'm hopeful it is possible. Reality tells me that this shoddy D corps is going to kill the kid's confidence if an injury doesn't get him first.
 

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I was a pretty big critic, that's true - and I still believe his rebound control sucked and caused him to have inflated stats - 99% is a hyperbole, I'd admit.

I think he always was a slightly above average goaltender that got too much hype on this board because of SV% alone - and that he created his own danger; and who's game lent itself to getting barraged if his defense wasn't very good.

Once we put more chaotic guys in front of him, it just went off a cliff.

I don't think Kinky's SV% is reflective of how well he's played behind a terrible defense.

I (sadly) think you'll see the same thing with Big Mac that we saw with Cory; as the defense wears his confidence down.

I'd love to believe that he's got a wellspring of 42-save performances and that a .970 SV% is sustainable - but for little fault of his own (other than being a young goalie that will have some rebound control issues, confidence issues etc) - he's going to go off a cliff too.

I would love that his mental makeup is so excellent that my above statement is completely wrong and he goes on to a wonderful career and leads us to the playoffs this season... From watching the past few games, I'm hopeful it is possible. Reality tells me that this shoddy D corps is going to kill the kid's confidence if an injury doesn't get him first.
A .970% save percentage is never sustainable for more than a few games.

I maintain injuries killed Cory, not the defense.
 
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billingtons ghost

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And when Keith Kinkaid has been the only serviceable goaltender on your roster for the first 35 games of the year, your goaltending is probably gonna be bad.

Other than your general bias that he is a backup, and the SV% silliness - what evidence do you have to support that Kinkaid has lost us games? You are pointing a finger at the goaltending alone.

How many games has goaltending alone lost us this year in your estimation? I can point to at least half of Cory's games - at least the ones when his own team wasn't scoring upon him. I can point to maybe one or two of Keith's games. Unless you are dipping into the shootout losses?

If you watch the games and take SV% out of the equation, your argument has no legs.

The defense has been awful. Forwards, defensemen, everyone. We lost N games on blueline turnovers alone.
 

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never said dallas is a top team. its just usually a given that we will be outplayed by one 80% of the time. i was refuting your 20% tops example. you just brought up 10 games which id already more than 20%.

this team is bad, goaltending wont change that

The Devils outplayed Dallas in October and won 3-0
 
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Bleedred

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Other than your general bias that he is a backup, and the SV% silliness - what evidence do you have to support that Kinkaid has lost us games? You are pointing a finger at the goaltending alone.

How many games has goaltending alone lost us this year in your estimation? I can point to at least half of Cory's games - at least the ones when his own team wasn't scoring upon him. I can point to maybe one or two of Keith's games. Unless you are dipping into the shootout losses?

If you watch the games and take SV% out of the equation, your argument has no legs.

The defense has been awful. Forwards, defensemen, everyone. We lost N games on blueline turnovers alone.
Now you just asked me ''What evidence do you have to support that Kinkaid has lost us games?'' and then you say a couple sentences later ''I can point to maybe one or two of Keith's games''. So could it be that you agree?

I never said it was more than maybe 2 or 3.
 

Bleedred

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He turned himself inside out because of our (lack of) defense.
He's had significant injuries since then.

What evidence do you have to support that the defense caused this?

He's had two offseason surgeries since the decline started and one on his hip and I believe he's even missed time with a nagging groin injury on top of that.
 

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I would say they’re not a very good defensive team. Probably a bit below average. Their goaltending hasn’t been anywhere near average though. The worst in hockey. Both things are issues, one has been a much bigger issue.

Yesterday we got very good goaltending, yet 5 goals were still scored on us. And I expect it to keep on happening until we clean our structure defensively.
 

SteveCangialosi123

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Yesterday we got very good goaltending, yet 5 goals were still scored on us. And I expect it to keep on happening until we clean our structure defensively.
You’re just being dishonest if you think yesterday’s performance is representative of what we’ve done this season.
 

haak84

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Name 20 goalies better than Kinkaid. This team is bad. Goalies across the league are pretty uninspiring and volatile. Outside maybe 5 goalies, no goalie is going to make a huge impact on the team. for the devils, one goalie has been really bad and the team has made him look like the worst goalie in the league. One goalie has been average and team has made him look really poor. One had been amazing over a 5 game stretch and eventually would be made to look average or below average.
 

haak84

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Mackenzie Blackwood has the highest difference in actual save % and expected save %. You better believe that is going to come down. His expected save % is .906. His actual is .945. This is unsustainable. Kinkaid has a difference of 0 in save % to expected. Which means he had been an exact reflection of the team play. He’s an average goalie and this shows that.

He is 32nd out of 57 goalies in dsv% in all situations. An average goalie who I expect would produce better numbers over the next couple months because of the weaker competition.
 

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Mackenzie Blackwood has the highest difference in actual save % and expected save %. You better believe that is going to come down. His expected save % is .906. His actual is .945. This is unsustainable. Kinkaid has a difference of 0 in save % to expected. Which means he had been an exact reflection of the team play. He’s an average goalie and this shows that.

He is 32nd out of 57 goalies in dsv% in all situations. An average goalie who I expect would produce better numbers over the next couple months because of the weaker competition.

Expected sv%?
 

haak84

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Expected sv%?

Expected Save Percentage, or xSV, from DontTellMeAboutHeart and HockeyGraphs, takes danger zones and other information in the play by play file to derive a rate at which an average netminder would stop the kinds of shots seen by each goalie. This allows comparisons between what a goalie has actually done and what they were expected to do. Like the above measures, it improves to some extent on raw save percentage in predictability.

0 would be average goaltending giving the quality of chances. +4 would be Hart worthy. -4 would be worst goalie in the league. Which is pretty much the spectrum of devils goaltending this season.
 

billingtons ghost

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Now you just asked me ''What evidence do you have to support that Kinkaid has lost us games?'' and then you say a couple sentences later ''I can point to maybe one or two of Keith's games''. So could it be that you agree?

I never said it was more than maybe 2 or 3.

Fair enough. I'm just saying that having your goaltender lose 2 games out of 40 isn't enough to label the goaltending as the fundamental reason we are where we are. I'm not saying he's a great goaltender, but to put any of this mess in his lap at this point is ridiculous.

Similarly - I think that most of our goaltending troubles of last year (and Cory's precipitous decline) had to do with the team's defense getting shoddy, and exposing them.

Alot of this is like a quarterback and offensive line - we can definitely point to completion %s going down if the guy is throwing from his back all of the time. But it is certainly a grey area as to how much is 'happy feet', how much is 'holding onto the ball too long', and how much is just a guy getting killed back there.

I think the same goes for goalies - they get psychological damage from being shelled, and only great ones like Hasek develop a real fortress mentality. Most go from being 'wow, we got Peter Mrazek!' or 'wow, we got Scott Darling' to being exposed.

I think KK is an above average backup, and middling starter. I think maybe MB29 could be the same and a little better than that - if he doesn't get shellshocked first.
 

Bleedred

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Name 20 goalies better than Kinkaid. This team is bad. Goalies across the league are pretty uninspiring and volatile. Outside maybe 5 goalies, no goalie is going to make a huge impact on the team. for the devils, one goalie has been really bad and the team has made him look like the worst goalie in the league. One goalie has been average and team has made him look really poor. One had been amazing over a 5 game stretch and eventually would be made to look average or below average.
20 goalies better than Kinkaid? I can do that quite easily. This is in no order, I'm just looking at teams by division

Vasilevskiy, Andersen, Rask, Holtby, Lundqvist, Lehner, Bobrovsky, Fleury, Gibson, Jones, Quick, Raanta (Injured for the rest of the year) Hellebuyck, Crawford (May be shot due to head injuries though) Bishop, Rinne, Varlamov, Grubauer (hasn't been better this year though), Dubnyk are all definitely better. That's 19.

Luongo, Price, Halak, are probably better, but maybe not by much. Luongo is ancient, but has still been pretty good and hasn't been any worse than Kinkaid this year. You gotta figure he's close to his shelf life though and gets injured all the time. Price is clearly declining, but probably is no worse. Halak is probably about even.

Hutton is probably better, Rittich may or may not be. Khudobin is probably nearly even.

Howard (not as good as he's been this year), Allen, Neuvirth, Smith, Talbot, Markstrom, Anderson are all worse or at least no better.
 

billingtons ghost

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20 goalies better than Kinkaid? I can do that quite easily. This is in no order, I'm just looking at teams by division

Vasilevskiy, Andersen, Rask, Holtby, Lundqvist, Lehner, Bobrovsky, Fleury, Gibson, Jones, Quick, Raanta (Injured for the rest of the year) Hellebuyck, Crawford (May be shot due to head injuries though) Bishop, Rinne, Varlamov, Grubauer (hasn't been better this year though), Dubnyk are all definitely better. That's 19.

Luongo, Price, Halak, are probably better, but maybe not by much. Luongo is ancient, but has still been pretty good and hasn't been any worse than Kinkaid this year. Price is clearly declining, but probably is no worse. Halak is probably about even.

Hutton is probably better, Rittich may or may not be. Khudobin is probably nearly even.

Howard (not as good as he's been this year), Allen, Neuvirth, Smith, Talbot, Markstrom, Anderson are all worse or at least no better.

I'll agree with your list except for Jones, Quick, Raanta, Crawford, Bishop, Grubauer - mostly because injuries.

Someone like Quick, for example - great goalie, I'd say probably one of the top 5 in reality - but he is being exposed this year by a terrible Kings team. So - is it the defense or the goalie? Grubauer is another example going from the Caps to a team where he's been giving up 6 or 7 regularly. Not Luongo this year. Price? Nope. Halak maybe although if you put him behind the no-defense Isles last year, where did you rank him then?
 
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