GDT: Devils vs. Kings - 7:00 PM - MSG+

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Lou is God

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Best stretch of hockey we’ve had in a full year. But factor in soft schedule and opponents also playing down to us (Philly). But no matter, it’s been relaxing to watch games like the last 2 where everything goes right and you get the bounces too (Philly with Couturier or Koneckny shanking an open net goal into the post, plus a couple other bounces). I’ll take it for sure. It’s about time.
But that's all a young team needs to get its confidence, once a team has that, anything is possible. Of course, this would have been better served earlier in the season than February.
 
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devilsblood

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That is the age the typical goalie starts to decline

Conclusion: I’m going to use the Linear aging curve going forward in my Hockey Marcels, but no matter which one you use a few points are still clear:
1. Goalies don’t improve as they get older
2. By age 30, goalie decline starts to get REALLY noticable
3. By mid-30s, even with the aging line, goalies rapidly start to fall apart.

How well do goalies age? A look at a goalie aging curve.

Since it typically takes 5 years or so from the time a goalie is drafted to be ready for the NHL (if they are ever good enough) the Caps played it well.
That curve really doesn't explain how bad Holtby is this season. He's 30, and having a season that would warrant concerns that he is done, not just declining.

Now I think a bounce back is certainly possible, but how the Caps played that well is the presence of Samsanov means they don't need to risk a big contract on a 30 year old goalie, even if Holtby were playing great right now, this contract can't be a big money long term deal.
 
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ChicksDigTheTrap

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That curve really doesn't explain how bad Holtby is this season. He's 30, and having a season that would warrant concerns that he is done, not just declining.

Now I think a bounce back is certainly possible, but how the Caps played that well is the presence of Samsanov means they don't need to risk a big contract on a 30 year old goalie, even if Holtby were playing great right now, this contract can't be a big money long term deal.
Exactly my point. His contract ends right in the time frame when a noticeable decline was expected. All players age differently but Washington was PREPARED for this. I originally posted in response to a post by Bleedred in which he stated Washingtons management still thought Holtby was elite. Their actions in 2015 showed they were expecting him to be showing signs of decline evidenced by them using a first with Holtby in his prime.

Holtby's save percentage was .907 in 17-18 and .911 in 18-19, so this year is not that far out of line of what would be expected.
 

Bleedred

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You have to give Washington's management a lot of credit for using a 1st round pick back in 2015 on Samsonov while Holtby was in his prime. They knew Holtby be in the time frame he would be declining and they were prepared for it.
I'll only give Washington's management credit if they let Holtby walk.

If they drafted Samsonov in the first round, only to re-sign Holtby to what will undoubtedly be a horrendous contract, then it will be all for nothing.

And at this point, they don't seem to wanna staple Holtby to the bench, despite the fact that he has an .871% since December and over the last 17 games he's played. That's Cory-like brutal.

I think they've only let Samsonov have two games in a row on two occasions this season.
 

Blackjack

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In case it hasn’t been mentioned enough, Severson has been playing incredibly well the last couple of weeks.

Yet people still ***** about him saying he's the worst defenseman in the league or they should convert him to forward because he's horrible at D.

Not just our best defenseman, but up there with Coleman for our best player this year.
 
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Bleedred

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That curve really doesn't explain how bad Holtby is this season. He's 30, and having a season that would warrant concerns that he is done, not just declining.

Now I think a bounce back is certainly possible, but how the Caps played that well is the presence of Samsanov means they don't need to risk a big contract on a 30 year old goalie, even if Holtby were playing great right now, this contract can't be a big money long term deal.
Agreed.

Even if Holtby wasn't having a horrific season and was just puttering around where he has been the last two seasons (average), I'd still say they should move on from him for money reasons. Samsonov would have to be one of the worst goalies in the league for the Caps to miss the playoffs if he was their starter. Their team save percentage is barely above .900% (mostly because Holtby has been bad) and they're still 21 games above NHL.500 right now and have 36 wins in the second week of February.

As long as Ovechkin keeps scoring, they're probably good to go.

And I also said they'd need money to sign Backstrom (they just did) and I think Ovechkin's contract is up in the next couple of years and I'm sure he'll still play and might even get a raise, even though he'll be in his late 30's by then.

Backstrom is still an elite player at his position, Holtby is not.

But of course, it's much better for us if they do sign Holtby and handcuff their cap on him.
 
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JimEIV

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Not even a week ago he was a pick that "set the team back". Narratives are funny when the people who come up with them can't even keep them straight.
Zacha and McLeod back to back at #6 and #11 turned#12 absolutely set us back... don't really know how anyone could possibly see it otherwise? It's just an unfortunate reality. And that is precisely what I said a few days ago.

At least with Zacha you have a bonafide NHL player, albeit a disappointment especially from that draft and at #6....I don't think that is the case for McLeod. I am not sure there is even a career there... perhaps a Beau Bennett type career but not much more.
 
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JimEIV

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Blackwood's career numbers are starting to look pretty decent.... especially when you consider this team.
Career:
56 starts
27 wins
5 shutouts
.913 Sv%

Winning nearly 50% of his starts on this team over the last two years is quite a feat in my opinion.
 

Triumph

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Zacha and McLeod back to back at #6 and #11 turned#12 absolutely set us back... don't really know how anyone could possibly see it otherwise? It's just an unfortunate reality. And that is precisely what I said a few days ago.

At least with Zacha you have a bonafide NHL player, albeit a disappointment especially from that draft and at #6....I don't think that is the case for McLeod. I am not sure there is even a career there... perhaps a Beau Bennett type career but not much more.

Give the Devils literally the best guys drafted here. They're still not a playoff team or even particularly close.
 
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Offseason Champs

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Best thing is Blackwood is only like 23 or something so he should still be able to grow and get better as he learns players shot tendencies and hopefully a stronger defensive core in front of him in the years to come.

I’d be surprised if he doesn’t get some Calder votes. Not saying he would be top 3 or anything but if he continues this pace top 5 would be impressive.
 

JimEIV

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Give the Devils literally the best guys drafted here. They're still not a playoff team or even particularly close.
I would firmly disagree.

There are 80+ point players(multiple) and 25 minutes a night Defensemen taken AFTER we picked in both drafts.
 
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ChicksDigTheTrap

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I'll only give Washington's management credit if they let Holtby walk.

If they drafted Samsonov in the first round, only to re-sign Holtby to what will undoubtedly be a horrendous contract, then it will be all for nothing.

And at this point, they don't seem to wanna staple Holtby to the bench, despite the fact that he has an .871% since December and over the last 17 games he's played. That's Cory-like brutal.

I think they've only let Samsonov have two games in a row on two occasions this season.
They will not re sign Holtby to a high salary long term deal because they are a cap team and doing so would mean they will have to cut else where. Given Holtby's steady decline I doubt they would do it.

Washington is in first place. It may be they are trying to keep Samsonovs workload low so that if they need him for the playoffs he will be fresh. Pressure games every other day is a tough grind for a young goalie.
 
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haak84

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Blackwood is definitely the real deal. Reminds me of Gibson which would be amazing if we had a goalie like that for 60+ games in their prime,
 

haak84

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It is also much easier to judge goalies when this team is not giving up 10 cross ice slot one timers and 5 zone exit turnovers per game.

Hynes was so so so so bad.
 

devilsblood

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It is also much easier to judge goalies when this team is not giving up 10 cross ice slot one timers and 5 zone exit turnovers per game.

Hynes was so so so so bad.
.898 and a 3.12 with Hynes. .922 and a 2.57 since.


Less clear with the other 2.

Domingue
.870 and a 3.45 with Hynes. .894 with a 3.64 since

Cory
.852 and a 4.59 with Hynes. .852 with a 4.84 since.

But this set of stats does say very clearly that A)non Blackwood goalies have killed us, and a little less clear, but can still be said with some confidence B) Hynes was a major issue as well.
 

devilsblood

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Not just our best defenseman, but up there with Coleman for our best player this year.

You think Sev's is right up there as our best player this year? I'm willing to say over the last few weeks. But all season? Nah.

I mean...it's true...?

It's not but that's what people want to see.

I've always thought Sev's defensive game can range from decent to good. It's those awful turnovers right in front of our net that makes him lood so bad. And it seems those turnovers also come with his defense is looking more decent then good. So he has stretches that he just looks really bad. But then he goes on a stretch like we are seeing now where he is playing good defensively and making smart plays with the puck and he starts to look like a guy you want to build your team around.
 

Emperoreddy

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Vats overall has been better then Severson this year and Subban defensively has been better the Severson as well.

Severson being better then Butcher and Mueller is inherently meaningless praise.
 
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