Devils Team Discussion (current team/player news and notes) ‎PART XI

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

yes, Malkin is the "2nd line center" in Pittsburgh but he is 2nd on the team in ice time for forwards behind Sid.

 

[JimEIV]

Haha yep. One of the 3 best players in the world is the 2nd line center for Pitt. There must be a ton of situations like that around the NHL.

Fedorov was on the 2nd line when he won his Hart in 94 also.

 

[tycobb]

SV% leaders over the last 2 years (5on5) 3000 mins+

1. Rask
2. Bobrovsky
3. Howard
4. Lundqvist
5. Beriner
6. Bishop
7. Holtby
8. Price
9. Anderson
10. Varlamov

 

[ScottyK]

Quick question. Moving to IL in September. Which service will I get more devils home broadcasts on. Center ice ( Comcast ) or gamecenter ?

 

[tycobb]

Fedorov was on the 2nd line when he won his Hart in 94 also.

Yea I am sure Fedorov didn't play many minutes for the 93-94 DET team. Even when Yzerman was out of the game for 24 games. And I am sure they didn't play one of the greatest defensive forwards to ever play the game against the other teams scoring lines.

 

[The Devil In I]

Quick question. Moving to IL in September. Which service will I get more devils home broadcasts on. Center ice ( Comcast ) or gamecenter ?

From my knowledge of gamecenter, it allows you to switch between home and away broadcasts. I'm not sure if this is across the board (for every single game) though. I've never bought gamecenter...thinking about making the switch this year.

But I can tell you that last year in Chicago, I got way more away broadcasts for the Devils than I did home broadcasts on Center Ice.

Where in IL you moving?

 

[tailfins]

Yes we have - Jim was trying to make the case that save % does not have a strong effect on winning %. That is debunked.

Discussing the variables that effect save percentage most is a different equation entirely.

I saw that Jim agreed with you on this, but I don't. I don't see where you "debunked" that save % has an effect on winning %. Reverse the equation and I bet you'd find that teams that win more are likely to have high save %. So, maybe winning drives better goaltending?

Jim's point is simply that there's enough noise in the data for save % to be an unreliable measure of goaltender quality when differences between save %'s are small. There's also the issue of past save % being an unreliable predictor of future save %, so even if you could look back and say that, objectively Goaltender A had a great year last year, it's not clear you can project that Goaltender A will have a great year next year. He's used mostly anecdotal observation to push this point, but those anecdotes do seem to hold some water.

If there's real progress to be made in the discussion, it's to understand: - how much of save % is an effect vs. how much of it is due to underlying ability; and
- how predictive previous save % is on future save %

If someone could do that, they'd come up with a better way to evaluate goalies.

 

[GameSeven]

So, Cory .921 / 1.97 versus Marty's .901 / 2.51 with the same team....

I guess the team stopped goals better when Cory was in net? They gave up tougher chances for Marty? The goalies are virtually indistinguishable at this point.

Hell, why let goalies touch the cup when their team wins... just give them a participation ribbon

 

[JimEIV]

So, Cory .921 / 1.97 versus Marty's .901 / 2.51 with the same team....

I guess the team stopped goals better when Cory was in net? They gave up tougher chances for Marty? The goalies are virtually indistinguishable at this point.

Hell, why let goalies touch the cup when their team wins... just give them a participation ribbon

I agree. They all should go directly back to the lockerroom and not even be seen....They oughta go to their stall and erect a little alter and pray to Cam Ward the patron Saint of Irrelevancy for the big contract they are about get for doing nothing. Cory missed a step before getting the contract though.

 

[AfroThunder396]

Devils will get 2 games on NBCSN this year.

St. Louis @ New Jersey, Tues Nov 4th at 7:30 pm
Buffalo @ New Jersey, Tues Feb 17th at 7:30 pm

 

[Pegi90*]

Yeah big shock a guy's save percentage usually improves against non-playoff teams although it didn't work out that way for Marty. If you're going to use selective stats to mealy-mouth Cory how about Marty's .884 save percentage against NON-playoff teams? Or are we just glossing over those games too since games against non-playoff teams don't count? If it was so easy to pile up numbers against bad teams why didn't Marty do it?

old man being more fired up against the rivalry teams and such.

 

[Pegi90*]

Luongo has been very good over the last four to five years, third or fourth in save percentage over that time and top 10 in GAA. The only down season was 12-13, in which he only played 20 games because he had to contend with one of the other best goalies in the world being on his team. He also got flack for his contract, but that doesn't devalue what he does on the i

Lundqvist, Rask, Luongo, Schneider and possibly Rinne and Lehtonen are the upper tier of goalies in the NHL in my opinion.

brodeur has better GGA than luongo last 4 years.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

old man being more fired up against the rivalry teams and such.

oh man. youre joking, I hope.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

I saw that Jim agreed with you on this, but I don't. I don't see where you "debunked" that save % has an effect on winning %. Reverse the equation and I bet you'd find that teams that win more are likely to have high save %. So, maybe winning drives better goaltending?

Jim's point is simply that there's enough noise in the data for save % to be an unreliable measure of goaltender quality when differences between save %'s are small. There's also the issue of past save % being an unreliable predictor of future save %, so even if you could look back and say that, objectively Goaltender A had a great year last year, it's not clear you can project that Goaltender A will have a great year next year. He's used mostly anecdotal observation to push this point, but those anecdotes do seem to hold some water.

If there's real progress to be made in the discussion, it's to understand: - how much of save % is an effect vs. how much of it is due to underlying ability; and
- how predictive previous save % is on future save %

If someone could do that, they'd come up with a better way to evaluate goalies.

Winning drives better goaltending?

Anyone who does statistical work will tell you the importance of a sound theoretical basis for your model. The claim that winning drives better goaltending has none, and is probably the exact opposite of reality as teams that tend to win by multiple goals have a tendency to play more lax defense. Save percentage is pretty clearly the explanatory variable while points percentage is the response variable.

http://hockey-graphs.com/2014/01/20/2013-2014-goaltending-performance-save-percentage-correlation/

This should answer some of your other questions.

 

[GameSeven]

I agree. They all should go directly back to the lockerroom and not even be seen....They oughta go to their stall and erect a little alter and pray to Cam Ward the patron Saint of Irrelevancy for the big contract they are about get for doing nothing. Cory missed a step before getting the contract though.

Oh, you...

 

[zharkenby]

Anyone else want to take a flyer on peter mueller?

 

[Baggy Spandex]

Anyone else want to take a flyer on peter mueller?

No, because Lou would make him cut his hair, and that would be a crime.

He had the best flow in the league.

 

[ScottyK]

From my knowledge of gamecenter, it allows you to switch between home and away broadcasts. I'm not sure if this is across the board (for every single game) though. I've never bought gamecenter...thinking about making the switch this year.

But I can tell you that last year i'm Chicago, I got way more away broadcasts for the Devils than I did home broadcasts on Center Ice.

Where in IL you moving?

Sycamore in September.

 

[Brodeur]

Quick question. Moving to IL in September. Which service will I get more devils home broadcasts on. Center ice ( Comcast ) or gamecenter ?

I had to switch to GameCenter in 2011 and I have been pretty happy with the service. The picture quality through my PS3 has gotten much better over time. Since the games are over by the time I get home here on the West Coast, I end up watching a majority of games on my computer because the interface/fast forwarding is still clunky on the PS3/tablet.

The nice thing is that my account is portable, so if I'm out of town doing family stuff, I could still watch the game on my phone or somebody's computer.

This might not be an issue in your time zone, but there can be a bit of an unintentional spoiler when you're watching a completed game on GameCenter. Ie, if you happen to see the end of the progress bar, you probably can figure out whether it's a regulation game, OT game, or shootout game.

That was the nice thing with Center Ice since I could just DVR a generic three hour block and wouldn't have any idea how the game went. Also, my cable doesn't offer Center Ice in HD which was a detracting factor. If Center Ice were available in HD, I might be mildly tempted to switch back.

 

[The Devil In I]

I had to switch to GameCenter in 2011 and I have been pretty happy with the service. The picture quality through my PS3 has gotten much better over time. Since the games are over by the time I get home here on the West Coast, I end up watching a majority of games on my computer because the interface/fast forwarding is still clunky on the PS3/tablet.

The nice thing is that my account is portable, so if I'm out of town doing family stuff, I could still watch the game on my phone or somebody's computer.

This might not be an issue in your time zone, but there can be a bit of an unintentional spoiler when you're watching a completed game on GameCenter. Ie, if you happen to see the end of the progress bar, you probably can figure out whether it's a regulation game, OT game, or shootout game.

That was the nice thing with Center Ice since I could just DVR a generic three hour block and wouldn't have any idea how the game went. Also, my cable doesn't offer Center Ice in HD which was a detracting factor. If Center Ice were available in HD, I might be mildly tempted to switch back.

This is another problem I had with Center Ice. Yea, they have games in HD...two per day . So for I'd say greater than 50% of the games last year I watched the non-Devils broadcast in standard def.

 

[Bcap88]

Quick question. Moving to IL in September. Which service will I get more devils home broadcasts on. Center ice ( Comcast ) or gamecenter ?

I have game center and really have no issues in terms of blackout or restrictions. I watch it on my 360 and the quality is fantastic Hardly ever buffers and you can switch between home and away broadcast. Only problem is that the action is about a minute behind so if you like to follow the game threads and watch the game at the same time most of the time it gets spoiled. Other than that I have no issues

 

[ScottyK]

Thanks for the input fellas

 

[tailfins]

Winning drives better goaltending?

Anyone who does statistical work will tell you the importance of a sound theoretical basis for your model. The claim that winning drives better goaltending has none, and is probably the exact opposite of reality as teams that tend to win by multiple goals have a tendency to play more lax defense. Save percentage is pretty clearly the explanatory variable while points percentage is the response variable.

This should answer some of your other questions.

Thanks for the link. Good stuff there.

I don't see where it contradicts much of what's been said in this thread, though. I didn't understand everything there, so I may have missed it, but it seemed to say that save % does have material noise in it unless the sample size is sufficiently large. The required sample size seemed to be somewhere between 150 - 300 games (wasn't clear if the article suggested 5k or 15k shots, and predictive power of save % toward future performance seemed to rise at around 300 games). To me, that means it's very possible that goalies with small sample sizes are seeing high save % because of their team.

If the article is correct about sample size (or if I understood it correctly), then unless you're getting Lu when Vancouver got him, or Roy when Colorado got him, or in a position to sign Lundqvist or Brodeur in their peak years, it's hard to sign an "elite" goalie without significant risk. On the other hand, someone like Halak is very likely to continue to deliver close to his career numbers. From my point of view, signing someone like Halak seems like a better path forward, as it saves money, doesn't require massive term, and delivers reasonable performance. I know I'm making a leap (how much $ is it worth to have those few extra points in save %), but I don't see how the article shows that goalies with < 150 starts and high save % are likely to continue their performance into the future - aka, that they're more talented than the average.

 

[OOOOIIIO]

Quick question. Moving to IL in September. Which service will I get more devils home broadcasts on. Center ice ( Comcast ) or gamecenter ?

I lived in WI (with parents in IL) for 2 years and then out to New Hampshire for the past 2 years and watched probably 90% of Devils games via Gamecenter over that time. Its a fantastic deal. The downside is that the quality is not as good as HD TV. Its still reat quality, but they arent streaming at the highest quality they can (as shown by some of their other streaming formats) through a PC or Playstation. Hopefully this year its better.

Even with that though, the quality is still fantastic, home boradcasts always with the major downside being lack of playoff coverage.

 

[glenwo2]

When Quick gets that SV% up around .920 then we talk about him being good.

But until then its Lundqvist, Schneider, Rask and Luongo that are true Elites of the league.

Oh and Lehtonen. How can I forget Lehtonen!

There's a sarcasm smiley in there somewhere....