Prospect Info: Devils Day One Draft Recap

StevenToddIves

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Devils 2021 Day One Draft Recap
1st Round (#4 Overall): LD Luke Hughes, US-NTDP

In one of the feel-good stories of the 2021 draft, the Devils drafted the younger brother of future face-of-the-franchise center Jack Hughes. This pick made sense on more than simply a sentimental level, however. The Devils have not had an offensive defenseman with the sheer talent and upside of Luke Hughes since Scott Niedermeyer, and Luke’s talent is so extreme that, if he approaches his talent ceiling, he is the type of player who can singularly transform the pace and acuity of New Jersey’s scoring whenever he is on the ice.

Quite simply, Luke Hughes was the runaway best skater in the entire 2021 draft class. The kid can fly — his skating is elite in every sense, from dynamic edgework to agility to burst to acceleration. Defensively, this enables him to compensate for mistakes, as he can catch fast opposing forwards from behind in just one or two strides. Offensively, it is even more lethal — make the wrong commitment on Luke in transition, and he’s turned you inside-out and blown past you before you know what hit you. This skill is increased offensively by the fact Luke Hughes also possesses outstanding hands — when the skating is combined with the stickhandling, defenders always need to give him more space, lest they be corkscrewed into the ice while Hughes has exploded into open space with the puck on a string.

Once Luke Hughes has the puck in space, he knows what to do with it. He is a near-elite passer and a good, but not great, shooter. However, his speed allows him to hold onto the puck longer than most players while allowing him the liberty of skating deeper into the offensive zone than most defenders. Luke Hughes is truly a weapon offensively, which has garnered him comparisons to older brother Quinn Hughes. Though Luke might be a touch shy of Quinn offensively, he alleviates this with the bonus of being five inches taller, at 6’3. This increased wingspan and body strength will eliminate one of Quinn’s weaknesses, which is a propensity to be knocked off the puck by big and physical opponents.

Luke Hughes is not, however, a player without warts. His overall defensive play is problematic, and needs a great deal of work in terms of positioning and efficiency. He often seems impatient in the defensive zone, almost antsy as if he just wants to go try to score already. This propensity will lead him to make questionable decisions without the puck, and similarly his riverboat gambler style on the breakout and rush can often lead to high-danger turnovers and scoring chances against. Though I am not one to believe the myth that poor defenders can be “taught defense” as if some magical switch can be flipped to make them shut-down stalwarts, I do believe that — fueled by his elite combination of size and speed and tempered through experience and coaching — Luke Hughes can become an average to above-average defender. But again, this would be more than adequate to make the draft pick worthwhile, as Luke Hughes also has a rare offensive upside as a 60+ point LD whose combination of speed and skill pushes back the entire opposition when he is in transition; a player who can turn a “bang it up the boards” routine play in the offensive zone into two moves, a burst and a clean break at the opposing netminder.

Ultimately, we also need to keep in mind that Luke Hughes has a September birthday and just missed the 2022 draft by a matter of days. He also missed the end of his draft-eligible campaign due to a nasty ankle injury. So, this is a player with a lot of development ahead of him, and not a player to be rushed to the NHL. He is enrolled at the University of Michigan, where he will certainly play in 2021-22, and probably also in 2022-23. But this is also a player with an almost unfathomable upside, potentially as good a combination of size and speed as any defenseman in the Eastern Conference. Luke immediately becomes the most talented defenseman in the Devils organization, and the most talented since Scott Niedermeyer left for Anaheim in the early 2000s. As such, we need to give this pick high grades.

1st Round (#29) RW Chase Stillman, Sudbury OHL
Bafflingly, this pick was criticized heavily in much of the hockey media. Not bafflingly, much of the criticism was written by people who have watched very little of Chase Stillman, and have little idea of what type of player he truly is and is truly capable of becoming.

Stillman broke into the OHL with the Sudbury Wolves in 2019-20 and immediately impressed as one of the top 4 or 5 rookie forwards in the entire league. Another NHL legacy — he is the son of Cory Stillman — Chase is not a pure scorer, but rather an old-school, blood-and-guts power forward. Though this designation had him being sorely undersold by some draft “experts”, the fact is that Stillman’s scoring totals were outstanding for a 16/17 year old OHL rookie, and he has a penchant for banging home goals in tough areas around the crease. He’s also a better than average passer and puck-handler who has a lethal shot which he gets off quickly, efficiently and with some serious jazz behind it. Though no one is going to confuse him with a McDavid or MacKinnon offensively, this is a kid with 25-goal upside who crashes creases with reckless abandon, wins in the corners, and stands up for teammates.

Physical, scoring forwards are at a premium in today’s NHL. There are only so many Tkachuks and Gallaghers to go around. Stillman is not just a sandpaper guy or instigator, but he is an intimidating physical force. This kid absolutely plasters opposing players of all shapes and sizes with extreme prejudice and ferocity. With no OHL season due to the pandemic, he played in Denmark where he absolutely overmatched players his own age and mowed through the league with physicality the likes they had never experienced in the Danish juniors. At the U-18 tournament he was a one man wrecking crew, seemingly winning every corner and crease battle while absolutely flattening players as large as 6’5 Simon Edvinsson (#6 overall to Detroit).

Stillman’s compete level is absolutely unquestioned. Quite simply, he works his tail off every shift, and is a high-event player who can beat you in a litany of ways. If you’re a defenseman facing off against him, you spend half of every shift looking over your shoulder, and the other half peeling yourself off the ice and wondering what hit you. Don’t worry, we’ll tell you — it was Chase Stillman.

Stillman’s hard work ethic extends both on and off the ice. His skating was decidedly average in his rookie OHL campaign, so he obviously worked his tail off and improved this aspect of his game greatly. Now, it’s safe to say he is a good skater, bordering on very good. I say this often, but high compete hockey players have higher development curves. They exceed expectations with such regularity that it’s the expectations which should be brought into question. So, as one of the two or three highest compete players in the 2021 draft, one has to wonder why so many draft prognosticators still undersold him and then criticized the pick. It’s not as if the 2021 draft class was 2003 — not as if the Devils passed on guys like Pastrnak or Point to draft him. Were there players with a some more offense to their games than Stillman available at #29? Sure — but we’re talking players with incrementally more offense — Rosen was gone, Svechkov was gone, Coronato was gone, Samoskevich was gone. Players with inferior offensive ability to Chase like Johnston and Olausson were taken before Stillman. So, the controversy was surprising to me — especially when you factor in that Stillman represented the best combination of scoring and physicality remaining in the draft (give or take Chibrikov — #50 to Winnipeg).

Ultimately, the Devils lack physical forwards for their top 9 forwards. This is a team which was already soft up front and then lost Nathan Bastian when Seattle made a shrewd pick of the young winger. The Devils have a couple of kids with jam on the way from the prospect pool to the big show with Dawson Mercer and Nolan Foote, but neither add the in-your-face bone-crushing style of a Chase Stillman. This is not just a need for the increasingly rare violence of the old-time NHL, but quite simply (and obviously) the Devils have been awful — for many seasons — at scoring second and third-chance goals in net-front skirmishes.

Chase Stillman is a player who can win these battles down low, and he has a very nice pair of mitts around the net. He’s listed in the 6’1/6’2 range and is reportedly still growing; by the time he hits the NHL he should be in the range of a 6’2/200 power forward who can skate, offers nice puck skills, can score, and creates havoc for the opposition whenever he is on the ice.

I grade this pick very highly, and can say with no small amount of conviction that Chase Stillman will be an integrally positive force in the Devils return to contention in the ensuing half-decade.
 
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Azathoth

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It does make you wonder if there was a OHL season this past year, where Stillman would have ended up going? Sounds like he could have easily played himself somewhere into the 1st round.
 
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MartyOwns

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excellent write up. i like to read about prospects after they’re drafted because then it tends to have less slant. i’d be lying if i said i wasn’t concerned about hughes a bit. or, maybe not so much about hughes but more about the team’s ability to develop him into more than just an offensive defenseman. high hopes, though
 
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HyperX

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excellent write up. i like to read about prospects after they’re drafted because then it tends to have less slant. i’d be lying if i said i wasn’t concerned about hughes a bit. or, maybe not so much about hughes but more about the team’s ability to develop him into more than just an offensive defenseman. high hopes, though
The same worries existed for Jack

I think the Hughes boys are so in tune with themselves and willing to learn that being defensively responsible was never a concern. Even Quinn will turn it around soon I think, and its far more detrimental to his game than Luke of Jack
 

MartyOwns

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The same worries existed for Jack

I think the Hughes boys are so in tune with themselves and willing to learn that being defensively responsible was never a concern. Even Quinn will turn it around soon I think, and its far more detrimental to his game than Luke of Jack

eh i didn't ever have those worries with jack. luke is a defenseman, so i expect a lot out of him in his own end, whereas with jack i'm looking for more offense. having said that, i'm a big believer in getting a balanced defensive pair, since that can cover each individual guys shortcomings, and we should have a couple of guys that would pair well with him.

it's definitely something luke could work on and improve at, but i don't have a ton of confidence in our ability to properly develop defensemen. time will tell
 
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Guttersniped

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The good news is I’m guessing Bardakov (which is a delightful pick) alone will make the latter part of the 2021 Day Two write up more chipper instead of ending, like last year, on multiple picks where @StevenToddIves reaction was “Who? Oh no, oh God why? If you had to pick these guys at least trade down Fitz!”.

Though I will go to my grave viewing #100 as the ultimate version of that. I wish some of Shero’s nimble pick trading and sense draft value rubbed off more on Fitz. He was present at 2019 draft. The 102, 123 and 127 pick were all traded, the trades were there.
 

StevenToddIves

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It does make you wonder if there was a OHL season this past year, where Stillman would have ended up going? Sounds like he could have easily played himself somewhere into the 1st round.

This would depend on where his scoring is now, which is difficult to assess given the loss of the season. I would assume that Stillman would have been in the point-per-game range. But I also must admit this is 100% assumption on my part. In his rookie season at Sudbury, he barely played on the PP. If he starts to receive 1PP time, who knows how much. he will score next season? I'm guessing -- and again, it's a guess -- he will put up very good numbers.
 

StevenToddIves

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The good news is I’m guessing Bardakov (which is a delightful pick) alone will make the latter part of the 2021 Day Two write up more chipper instead of ending, like last year, on multiple picks where @StevenToddIves reaction was “Who? Oh no, oh God why? If you had to pick these guys at least trade down Fitz!”.

Though I will go to my grave viewing #100 as the ultimate version of that. I wish some of Shero’s nimble pick trading and sense draft value rubbed off more on Fitz. He was present at 2019 draft. The 102, 123 and 127 pick were all traded, the trades were there.

I'm going to try to get my Day Two Draft Recap out today or tomorrow -- sorry I've been busy lately. But I will say that I was less excited Day Two than I was Day One. But I will also say that a good Day One is more crucial than Day Two. Can you imagine being a Montreal fan right now? I'd wake up screaming after that pick.
 

RCPXP

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Feeling better after the STI stamp of approval.
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StevenToddIves

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The good news is I’m guessing Bardakov (which is a delightful pick) alone will make the latter part of the 2021 Day Two write up more chipper instead of ending, like last year, on multiple picks where @StevenToddIves reaction was “Who? Oh no, oh God why? If you had to pick these guys at least trade down Fitz!”.

Though I will go to my grave viewing #100 as the ultimate version of that. I wish some of Shero’s nimble pick trading and sense draft value rubbed off more on Fitz. He was present at 2019 draft. The 102, 123 and 127 pick were all traded, the trades were there.

I'll also add that the Day Two for 2021 was better than 2020, aside from perhaps the pick of Jaromir Pytlik which I absolutely loved.
 

StevenToddIves

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Awesome stuff.

How would you compare Stillman to Foote? Both are big boy wingers that will inevitably be compared to each other. What are the differences in their game?

The obvious is that Foote is a LW and Stillman a RW.

Stillman is a better skater and a more physical player. Stillman literally tailors his game around being a physical and disruptive force at all times, and adds some nice middle-six level skill and a very good shot.

Foote is also hard nosed and willing to crash creases, but lacks Stillman's innate ferocity. However, while Stillman is a good goal-scorer, Foote has an elite-level shot. Foote is more of a weapon on the power play and in space, while Stillman is more of a weapon down low and in traffic.

I feel both Foote and Stillman are excellent building blocks for the future. Ideally, I see them both on a third line, although either has the ability to slot up to the second due to injury. Foote will likely score a bit more because his shot will make him a weapon on the PP, although Stillman would be intriguing in that role as the net-front havoc maker.
 

My3Sons

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The obvious is that Foote is a LW and Stillman a RW.

Stillman is a better skater and a more physical player. Stillman literally tailors his game around being a physical and disruptive force at all times, and adds some nice middle-six level skill and a very good shot.

Foote is also hard nosed and willing to crash creases, but lacks Stillman's innate ferocity. However, while Stillman is a good goal-scorer, Foote has an elite-level shot. Foote is more of a weapon on the power play and in space, while Stillman is more of a weapon down low and in traffic.

I feel both Foote and Stillman are excellent building blocks for the future. Ideally, I see them both on a third line, although either has the ability to slot up to the second due to injury. Foote will likely score a bit more because his shot will make him a weapon on the PP, although Stillman would be intriguing in that role as the net-front havoc maker.

I think I can see Stillman as maybe becoming the cornerman and cycling guy for Jack? Someone has to go behind the net and get the puck. I can't see Jack doing that and I don't really see Foote doing that either although that may just be my impression based on limited viewings of a young player just trying to find his way. Long term I'm not sure we have ideal linemates for Jack. Is Mercer the plumber for Jack? If he is then Holtz likely isn't the triggerman since both are righties? This is so confusing. It was so simple in those old days of 2020 when we were young and carefree and it was obvious Holtz would play with Jack and Mercer with Nico. Now, it's like someone threw all the UNO cards in the air and we have to pick them up in the correct order. I may just have to go look at my life-size Lovejoy fatheads in my Lovejoy shrine and burn some incense and read from the book of Lovejoy. I'll be in my room if anyone needs me.
 

StevenToddIves

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I think I can see Stillman as maybe becoming the cornerman and cycling guy for Jack? Someone has to go behind the net and get the puck. I can't see Jack doing that and I don't really see Foote doing that either although that may just be my impression based on limited viewings of a young player just trying to find his way. Long term I'm not sure we have ideal linemates for Jack. Is Mercer the plumber for Jack? If he is then Holtz likely isn't the triggerman since both are righties? This is so confusing. It was so simple in those old days of 2020 when we were young and carefree and it was obvious Holtz would play with Jack and Mercer with Nico. Now, it's like someone threw all the UNO cards in the air and we have to pick them up in the correct order. I may just have to go look at my life-size Lovejoy fatheads in my Lovejoy shrine and burn some incense and read from the book of Lovejoy. I'll be in my room if anyone needs me.

Not counting the near-certainty of other additions, I would prefer Mercer on Jack's RW -- I feel they are a perfect match, as Mercer is also a very good two-way center who can help out in the defensive zone. I see a hypothetical Devils scoring line future as (left/center/right):

Sharangovich/Hughes/Mercer
Zacha/Hischier/Holtz
Bratt/??/Stillman
Wood/McLeod/Kuokkanen

I'd like to see the Devils fill that 3C hole this year in free agency. I feel Danault may be too hot a commodity among contenders to get in Jersey, but I think Casey Cizikas would be an outstanding fit there if the price was right. I also left out Nolan Foote, who I feel has a very good future in NJ as the LW for a 2nd or 3rd line.
 

My3Sons

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Not counting the near-certainty of other additions, I would prefer Mercer on Jack's RW -- I feel they are a perfect match, as Mercer is also a very good two-way center who can help out in the defensive zone. I see a hypothetical Devils scoring line future as (left/center/right):

Sharangovich/Hughes/Mercer
Zacha/Hischier/Holtz
Bratt/??/Stillman
Wood/McLeod/Kuokkanen

I'd like to see the Devils fill that 3C hole this year in free agency. I feel Danault may be too hot a commodity among contenders to get in Jersey, but I think Casey Cizikas would be an outstanding fit there if the price was right. I also left out Nolan Foote, who I feel has a very good future in NJ as the LW for a 2nd or 3rd line.

I think that NJ sends out at least one of Bratt or Zacha at some point for a defender and I'm skeptical they want to pay Wood what he will command to play on the fourth line. With any luck, Pytlick develops his game to the point where he can fit in as a 3C. Stranger things have happened.
 

StevenToddIves

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I think that NJ sends out at least one of Bratt or Zacha at some point for a defender and I'm skeptical they want to pay Wood what he will command to play on the fourth line. With any luck, Pytlick develops his game to the point where he can fit in as a 3C. Stranger things have happened.

To me, Jaromir Pytlik is the Devils top center prospect right now. It's kind of a thin position in the system, and I was a bit surprised the team did not address it more in the draft, passing on very intriguing center prospects like Brabenec and Savage for long-shot prospects at positions the Devils had depth in.

I'll do a Devils prospect ranking later this week, but at center I would rank it:

1 Pytlik
2 Salminen
3 Bardakov
4 Baumgartner
5 Shlaine

It's a thin group. Salminen and Bardakov will likely end up on the wing at the professional level unless they can improve their skating, and I can't with any conviction consider Baumgartner or Shlaine as legit NHL prospects; I'd be happy if either of them were good enough for the AHL.
 

StevenToddIves

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Ironically enough, one of the guys in the window name was: Gordon Jump.

Thanks @StevenToddIves! Excelente write up as always. I liked the Chase pick but now you made it my warm blanket when I rest at night.

I'm actually thrilled with the Chase Stillman pick. He produced in the OHL as a rookie, he produced wickedly in Denmark, and he was outstanding in the U-18. It's a mystery why people are selling him as a low-upside grinder. The kid can play hockey, and he adds a dimension of ferocity the Devils will greatly benefit from.
 

Its Always Sundstrom

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I'm actually thrilled with the Chase Stillman pick. He produced in the OHL as a rookie, he produced wickedly in Denmark, and he was outstanding in the U-18. It's a mystery why people are selling him as a low-upside grinder. The kid can play hockey, and he adds a dimension of ferocity the Devils will greatly benefit from.

Me too, I wanted L’Pew or Othmann at #29 and thought no way we get Stillman cause he’s going in the second. But Fitzy did it in the first so candy and nuts.
 
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