Prospect Info: Devils-Centric Mock Draft 2.0, Post-Lottery Victory

[StevenToddIves]

nice. i know nothing about him other than what you just said, is there an nhl comparable? that really helps me visualize

Comparables are tough, but I will go with a younger Dion Phaneuf minus the rocket shot.

 

[MartyOwns]

Comparables are tough, but I will go with a younger Dion Phaneuf minus the rocket shot.

thanks! i’ll take a poor man’s phaneuf in the 3rd round any day

 

[StevenToddIves]

I suspect teams will be looking to find the next Brandon Carlo in the late first and early second rounds for the next couple of years.

Brandon Carlo was generally thought to be a first round pick by most, even in the ridiculously strong 2015 draft class. I had him around 20 -- as I value physical defensive defensemen far more than many modern hockey writers who, in my opinion, place far too much emphasis on analytics. It's not that I have complete disregard for analytics, it's just that when established hockey writers look at a chart and consider it inalienable proof that Jake Gardiner is better than Shea Weber, I feel something has gone horribly wrong.

Every year when my rankings come out, I have these guys ranked higher than anyone -- Carlo in 2015, Andrew Peeke in 2016, Dylan Samberg in 2017. This year I have three similar players circled as late first/early second-worthy in Case McCarthy, Kaeden Korczak and Jake Lee. And, seeing how the Devils blueline was pushed around all season long by teams with physical forwards, New Jersey would be really wise to take one or more from this group.

 

[PizzaAndPucks]

I honestly wouldn't mind if we drafted all d men in the 2nd round if we keep all of our picks. Maybe Shero can move up and get another 1st to select one. I would be ok with not moving picks for roster players and trying to make this a monumental draft besides us being gifted Hughes.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Think LA would be insane to take Pods over Turcotte in this mock draft.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Think LA would be insane to take Pods over Turcotte in this mock draft.

I will have my new prospect rankings and mock draft out in early May. I'm starting to think that Turcotte is a very real possibility to Chicago at #3 overall. In my rankings, it is very close between Turcotte and Byram for #3 overall, and it is my belief that Chicago will be deciding between these two players.

Podkolzin's draft stock has become more volatile. After questions concerning his offensive production all season long, this U18 meant more to him than perhaps any other top-10 candidate. Though Podkolzin was decent and showed very good compete level and two-way acumen, his offense was comparatively pedestrian.

Whereas someone would have laughed at you in November for implying that Cole Caufield could be drafted ahead of Vasili Podkolzin, now we must accept it as a plausible possibility.

 

[My3Sons]

I will have my new prospect rankings and mock draft out in early May. I'm starting to think that Turcotte is a very real possibility to Chicago at #3 overall. In my rankings, it is very close between Turcotte and Byram for #3 overall, and it is my belief that Chicago will be deciding between these two players.

Podkolzin's draft stock has become more volatile. After questions concerning his offensive production all season long, this U18 meant more to him than perhaps any other top-10 candidate. Though Podkolzin was decent and showed very good compete level and two-way acumen, his offense was comparatively pedestrian.

Whereas someone would have laughed at you in November for implying that Cole Caufield could be drafted ahead of Vasili Podkolzin, now we must accept it as a plausible possibility.

Did any of your second round prospects show you anything new?

 

[Emperoreddy]

Thing with Cole for me is what will he be doing when he isn’t scoring?

Something to consider when drafting top 10. He definitely seems to make sense for someone like Edmonton though.

Also I would have Chicago take Byram. I don’t think Turcotte did enough to earn 3rd overall.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Did any of your second round prospects show you anything new?

Yes, and that is an outstanding question.

Number one on this list would have to be Jamieson Rees. I had him as a first/second round tweener, but to me he was the most dynamic player on Canada in the U18. I think he might crack my top 20 for May -- he's actually very similar to Peyton Krebs in my book, with a stronger chance of remaining at center.

Case McCarthy was another. He was a top-5 defenseman in this tournament. Aside from doing the expected Case McCarthy things of shutting down the opposition's top scorers and being an unbeatable physical force, he showed some solid offensive chops and was extremely heady with the puck. If a team took him in the 20s, I would now say it was a good pick.

Tobias Bjornfot was the best defenseman on Team Sweden, far more reliable (though slightly less dynamic) than more heralded teammate Philip Broberg. He could also sneak into the late first round, in my opinion.

Yegor Spiridonov showed that he is not only a tremendous two-way center, but also possesses very good offensive upside. Another player who could sneak into the late first round if a team truly believes in his combination of size/skating/skill/all-around play.

Thomas Harley entered the U18 as a first round/second round tweener, but it would be difficult to fathom his not going in the first round after a tremendous U18, especially given the rarity of his size/speed/offensive instincts from the blueline.

Vladislav Kolyachonok was the best player on a surprisingly competitive Belarus team. He was considered a raw LD with a lot of upside entering the tourney, but as it turns out he may be more polished than given credit for. He moves up from a guy who could have fell into the third to a guy that could go in the 30-40 range.

Patrik Puistola was a constant threat for Team Finland in the tournament. I thought he could fall to the third or even fourth round before the U18, but now I see him as a second round selection.

This list could not be complete without mentioning John Beecher. The kid is an absolute beast who has been lost in the shuffle as the 4C on a historically talented US-NTDP team. In my mind, he would be a top 2 center on virtually every team in the CHL, and he proved it in the U18 with a tremendous performance. A physical monster with tremendous defensive acumen, he has been compared most often to Ryan Kesler and David Backes. But in the U18, he showed that his skating and offensive instincts are also extremely impressive. Though I still expect him to fall into the 20s overall, I can no longer fathom any way Beecher could slip into the second round.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Thing with Cole for me is what will he be doing when he isn’t scoring?

Something to consider when drafting top 10. He definitely seems to make sense for someone like Edmonton though.

Also I would have Chicago take Byram. I don’t think Turcotte did enough to earn 3rd overall.

I disagree. Turcotte's combination of compete level and two-way play is absolutely insane. He was Team USA's best player in the first game against Russia. His game is so complete that scoring, and believe me this kid will score a ton in the NHL, is just the tip of the iceberg. To me, he's the only true challenger for Byram at the #3 overall slot.

 

[Emperoreddy]

I disagree. Turcotte's combination of compete level and two-way play is absolutely insane. He was Team USA's best player in the first game against Russia. His game is so complete that scoring, and believe me this kid will score a ton in the NHL, is just the tip of the iceberg. To me, he's the only true challenger for Byram at the #3 overall slot.

Idk. USA was a bit of a one line show the past two games with Cole and Hughes. USA could have used some secondary scoring against Russia.

 

[NJ07102]

Idk. USA was a bit of a one line show the past two games with Cole and Hughes. USA could have used some secondary scoring against Russia.

Yeah, I agree. There was little danger in that game other than from Hughes and Caufield.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Yeah, I agree. There was little danger in that game other than from Hughes and Caufield.

Meanwhile Byram is on his way to the WHL finals.

 

[Monsieur Verdoux]

This list could not be complete without mentioning John Beecher. The kid is an absolute beast who has been lost in the shuffle as the 4C on a historically talented US-NTDP team. In my mind, he would be a top 2 center on virtually every team in the CHL, and he proved it in the U18 with a tremendous performance. A physical monster with tremendous defensive acumen, he has been compared most often to Ryan Kesler and David Backes. But in the U18, he showed that his skating and offensive instincts are also extremely impressive. Though I still expect him to fall into the 20s overall, I can no longer fathom any way Beecher could slip into the second round.

I'm impressed by Beecher's skating, physicality and defensive game. However, I'm not sure how good he is offensively. He has an ability to drive to the net, in a similar way Miles Wood does, but I haven't seen other offensive instincts from him. But what do I know, I have only seen these few games from him.

 

[Nubmer6]

Yes, and that is an outstanding question.

Number one on this list would have to be Jamieson Rees. I had him as a first/second round tweener, but to me he was the most dynamic player on Canada in the U18. I think he might crack my top 20 for May -- he's actually very similar to Peyton Krebs in my book, with a stronger chance of remaining at center.

Case McCarthy was another. He was a top-5 defenseman in this tournament. Aside from doing the expected Case McCarthy things of shutting down the opposition's top scorers and being an unbeatable physical force, he showed some solid offensive chops and was extremely heady with the puck. If a team took him in the 20s, I would now say it was a good pick.

Tobias Bjornfot was the best defenseman on Team Sweden, far more reliable (though slightly less dynamic) than more heralded teammate Philip Broberg. He could also sneak into the late first round, in my opinion.

Yegor Spiridonov showed that he is not only a tremendous two-way center, but also possesses very good offensive upside. Another player who could sneak into the late first round if a team truly believes in his combination of size/skating/skill/all-around play.

Thomas Harley entered the U18 as a first round/second round tweener, but it would be difficult to fathom his not going in the first round after a tremendous U18, especially given the rarity of his size/speed/offensive instincts from the blueline.

Vladislav Kolyachonok was the best player on a surprisingly competitive Belarus team. He was considered a raw LD with a lot of upside entering the tourney, but as it turns out he may be more polished than given credit for. He moves up from a guy who could have fell into the third to a guy that could go in the 30-40 range.

Patrik Puistola was a constant threat for Team Finland in the tournament. I thought he could fall to the third or even fourth round before the U18, but now I see him as a second round selection.

This list could not be complete without mentioning John Beecher. The kid is an absolute beast who has been lost in the shuffle as the 4C on a historically talented US-NTDP team. In my mind, he would be a top 2 center on virtually every team in the CHL, and he proved it in the U18 with a tremendous performance. A physical monster with tremendous defensive acumen, he has been compared most often to Ryan Kesler and David Backes. But in the U18, he showed that his skating and offensive instincts are also extremely impressive. Though I still expect him to fall into the 20s overall, I can no longer fathom any way Beecher could slip into the second round.

You have more and more players you expect (or wouldn't be surprised) to go in the first round that it's sounding like we have almost 2 full rounds of potential 1st round talent. It would be great if we could get 3 of them in the 2nd. I remember them saying they expected Severson to be a 1st rounder and we snagged him late 2nd. Hopefully we find more of the same.

 

[StevenToddIves]

You have more and more players you expect (or wouldn't be surprised) to go in the first round that it's sounding like we have almost 2 full rounds of potential 1st round talent. It would be great if we could get 3 of them in the 2nd. I remember them saying they expected Severson to be a 1st rounder and we snagged him late 2nd. Hopefully we find more of the same.

Well to be fair, there are players other writers have in the first round whom I do not. Broberg, Heinola, Honka, Foote and Leason are all players I have seen in several other top 31 lists who have little chance to crack mine. Also, I don't rank goaltenders with skaters, so Spencer Knight's top 31 ranking is up for grabs.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I'm impressed by Beecher's skating, physicality and defensive game. However, I'm not sure how good he is offensively. He has an ability to drive to the net, in a similar way Miles Wood does, but I haven't seen other offensive instincts from him. But what do I know, I have only seen these few games from him.

Beecher has absolutely nothing in common with Miles Wood, so it's not even a debatable comparison. They play different positions, have different styles, and all of their strengths and weaknesses are different except that they are both big, strong and physical.

Far more reasonable comparisons would be Ryan Kesler and David Backes who, in their primes (as they are both in the tail-ends of very fine NHL careers), were terrific players. Both Kesler and Backes lasted past where they deserved to be drafted due to concerns about how good they were offensively, as well. Both turned into very good NHL scorers.

Will John Beecher ever score 40+ goals or 80+ points in an NHL season? It's very unlikely. Can he score 60+ points while becoming a physical, two-way force as an NHL 2C? This is very reasonable. These types of players are rare -- and certainly worth taking in the 20s over a goal-scoring but soft one-way winger or a possession-minded defenseman who gets owned in his own zone in my opinion.

 

[Billdo]

Here I was hoping we'd have a shot at Byram only a few weeks ago. Now while I still have an insane desire to get him to the Devils I'm almost settling for Hughes in my head. I have issues with wanting that bonafide top pairing defenseman ala Doughty, Keith, Leetch, Niedermayer, Weber, etc. (obviously that's referencing them in their primes)

 

[Monsieur Verdoux]

Beecher has absolutely nothing in common with Miles Wood, so it's not even a debatable comparison. They play different positions, have different styles, and all of their strengths and weaknesses are different except that they are both big, strong and physical.

Far more reasonable comparisons would be Ryan Kesler and David Backes who, in their primes (as they are both in the tail-ends of very fine NHL careers), were terrific players. Both Kesler and Backes lasted past where they deserved to be drafted due to concerns about how good they were offensively, as well. Both turned into very good NHL scorers.

Will John Beecher ever score 40+ goals or 80+ points in an NHL season? It's very unlikely. Can he score 60+ points while becoming a physical, two-way force as an NHL 2C? This is very reasonable. These types of players are rare -- and certainly worth taking in the 20s over a goal-scoring but soft one-way winger or a possession-minded defenseman who gets owned in his own zone in my opinion.

Yeah, I agree. He is totally different player than Miles Wood, but he is strong player with very good skating, so that's why he has an ability to drive to the net. There is definately better players to compare him than Wood, but the point was that most of his scoring chances have become from rushes. Or maybe I just haven't noticed other situations.

 

[Nubmer6]

Well to be fair, there are players other writers have in the first round whom I do not. Broberg, Heinola, Honka, Foote and Leason are all players I have seen in several other top 31 lists who have little chance to crack mine. Also, I don't rank goaltenders with skaters, so Spencer Knight's top 31 ranking is up for grabs.

Good. More 1st round skaters that will drop to the 2nd

Then again, I'd still nab Knight if we get a chance.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Here I was hoping we'd have a shot at Byram only a few weeks ago. Now while I still have an insane desire to get him to the Devils I'm almost settling for Hughes in my head. I have issues with wanting that bonafide top pairing defenseman ala Doughty, Keith, Leetch, Niedermayer, Weber, etc. (obviously that's referencing them in their primes)

Niedermeyer could probably still out-skate half the NHL, ha. One of my favorites ever.

The Devils have a very good top-pairing D possibility ready to crack the roster in Ty Smith. Don't sleep on this kid -- in the 2019 draft he would be a slam-dunk as the #2 defenseman overall, and a very plausible top 10 pick. Smith's hockey IQ and compete level are off the charts, and his skating and skill are both high-end.

I also believe that Ray Shero will use the Jack Hughes windfall to jump-start the team rebuild. Trades for Jacob Trouba and PK Subban are not beyond the realm of possibility -- both players will be expensive, but feasible acquisitions in the 2019 off-season. After a quiet 2018 off-season (though Shero went after several name players and came up short), I expect him to be a bit more determined in 2019, especially when considering that Taylor Hall might require some motivation to be signed long term.

Trouba, in particular, intrigues me. There are not many superior combinations of offensive acumen/shutdown ability/physicality at RD in the entire NHL. He would certainly be expensive, especially as Winnipeg will reload to contend for a Stanley Cup in 2020. But adding Trouba, Hughes and Ty Smith to a Devils team with a healthy Taylor Hall and improved goaltending tandem of Blackwood/Schneider would stand a strong chance of getting the Devils back into the post-season, and getting Taylor Hall to sign through 2025 or beyond.

 

[Emperoreddy]

You can tell from the alumni games that Nieds keeps himself in great shape.

 

[RSeen]

Brandon Carlo was generally thought to be a first round pick by most, even in the ridiculously strong 2015 draft class. I had him around 20 -- as I value physical defensive defensemen far more than many modern hockey writers who, in my opinion, place far too much emphasis on analytics. It's not that I have complete disregard for analytics, it's just that when established hockey writers look at a chart and consider it inalienable proof that Jake Gardiner is better than Shea Weber, I feel something has gone horribly wrong.

Every year when my rankings come out, I have these guys ranked higher than anyone -- Carlo in 2015, Andrew Peeke in 2016, Dylan Samberg in 2017. This year I have three similar players circled as late first/early second-worthy in Case McCarthy, Kaeden Korczak and Jake Lee. And, seeing how the Devils blueline was pushed around all season long by teams with physical forwards, New Jersey would be really wise to take one or more from this group.

Nobody says Gardiner is better than Weber. The prevailing thought is that Weber is overrated because of the inability of people to recognize that he is not the player he was in his prime and the overvaluing of hits, which I would agree with.

If you can be physical and not have a negative shot share, then I am all for having that type of player on my team. However if the main attribute the player brings is physicality, that is not enough to make up for if the player gets consistently outshot.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

Yea obviously Hughes is nice, but I REALLY wanted byram.

 

[Emperoreddy]

I much much rather Hughes.