Devils 2021 team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part XXXI

[NJDevs26]

One more day and we're officially in offseason mode

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[Jack Be Quick]

Piggybacking off of the previous thread, I'm one of Zacha's biggest proponents, would never suggest he's on Boeser's level, and can't really recall who has.

 

[TrufleShufle]

Only if we don't make the playoffs..

 

[Guttersniped]

Evolving-Hockey has new contact projections hot off the presses.

 

[Guttersniped]

Piggybacking off of the previous thread, I'm one of Zacha's biggest proponents, would never suggest he's on Boeser's level, and can't really recall who has.

Pavel Zacha’s agent.

 

[Guttersniped]

And here’s the top UFA projections though LOL on the length of some of these. (For instance poor Sami was projected to get a 3 year deal last off-season too. And LOL to 7 year deal for Hymen and Barrie. But remember they do it by odds for each year.)

 

[Guttersniped]

And here are the years.

 

[Bleedred]

That’s too much for Sharangovich. He’s only had one shortened season in the NHL. Not sure why he’d get nearly the same as what Kyle Palmieri got on his last day, which was after he was already an NHL regular for almost 5 years.

I’d be surprised if he gets more than what Wood and Zacha are currently getting. It should be probably be a bridge deal, as he’s just not proven enough yet. Same with Kuokkanen, but his projected hit is actually very fair and seems fairly accurate.

I feel like Vatanen is likely not getting an NHL deal at all. Maybe a camp invite. 3 years for him is really out of the question. He went the entire offseason last year without being signed, until we signed him even after camp started.

 

[MadDevil]

Pavel Zacha’s agent.

 

[Scorcho]

whoever suggested protecting mcleod over zacha is out to lunch

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

I’d be cool with the Sharangovich and Wennberg deals.

edit: wait does that Sharangovich deal take him to UFA? I’d be happy to add two years and more money if it does.

 

[Eggtimer]

If Hamilton could be hard for under 9 mil per... I’d like us to be in on that. Can’t see him leaving Carolina though .

 

[New Jersey Devils]

Kind of off topic, but is that Here’s your replay guy that same guy “John Smith” from a few years ago that did Devils/Habs replays? Ended up “quitting” and now he’s doing NHL wide stuff, but got into it with some fans on Twitter tonight and quit again. Guy just seems a bit “off” to me. Apparently he blocks anyone or threatens to quit when someone even slightly criticizes him.

 

[billingtons ghost]

I've been saying that Boeser for Zacha + a first is a lateral move if everyone is pointing to me as the guy who said Boeser and Zacha are 'equivalent' (which I didn't say). Petterson is a star. Boeser is a very good player who has benefited alot from first line, first PP minutes almost his entire career. It seems like all of our centers combined have won as many faceoffs as Horvat, for all of you possession lovers.

We dont' know what we have in Zacha yet because he's played with crap, and out of position, his entire career and when he finally produces to lead our crappy team in points, on a ridiculously cheap 2.25m contract, you want to trade him PLUS a first for a guy making 5.8+AAV who's contract will expire at the same time who has 7 more points and is the same age. For a guy with injury concerns who hasn't cracked 60 points.

When what we need is a RHD if we are going to deal assets.

Oh, and yeah - look at that 'unsustainable' S%, since that was popular in the Zacha argument:

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	PPP	SHG	SHP	GWG	OTG	S	S%	FO%
2016-2017	VAN	9	4	1	5	0	0	2	2	0	0	1	0	25	16	0
2017-2018	VAN	62	29	26	55	-5	16	10	23	0	0	4	0	179	16.2	25.64
2018-2019	VAN	69	26	30	56	-2	22	6	15	0	0	3	1	209	12.44	43.33
2019-2020	VAN	57	16	29	45	4	14	5	14	0	0	3	0	169	9.5	36.67
2020-2021	VAN	49	20	21	41	-6	12	7	12	1	1	1	0	119	16.8	35.29

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Guttersniped]

That’s too much for Sharangovich. He’s only had one shortened season in the NHL. Not sure why he’d get nearly the same as what Kyle Palmieri got on his last day, which was after he was already an NHL regular for almost 5 years.

I’d be surprised if he gets more than what Wood and Zacha are currently getting. It should be probably be a bridge deal, as he’s just not proven enough yet. Same with Kuokkanen, but his projected hit is actually very fair and seems fairly accurate.

I feel like Vatanen is likely not getting an NHL deal at all. Maybe a camp invite. 3 years for him is really out of the question. He went the entire offseason last year without being signed, until we signed him even after camp started.

The estimates are rosy for UFAs, like they were last year because they use preexisting contracts.

The do put Sami’s chances for a 3 year at 37% and a 1 year at 26%, but yeah I would put his chances for a 3 year deal at near zero %.

Palmieri got his 4.65m when that was 6.37% of the cap (73m), which would now be 5.16m. I haven’t looked at comparable forward deals. Bratt is roughly the starting point at 2 years/2.75m. Then it depends on the years of course, he can +3m easily.

I don’t completely disagree, I had sticker shock and don’t see him getting quite that much but players get paid for production. Hopefully he’s just so thrilled to be in the NHL that Fitz gets him on a good deal.

 

[Based Anime Fan]

So this popped up in my Youtube recommendations today. A blast from the past and shows our collective mental state at the time.

 

[MadDevil]

If this season of Zacha is what we get from now on, then I would agree that Boeser is not a huge upgrade. The problem is we have exactly one season where Zacha has produced at this level, compared to 4 seasons where Boeser has basically played at a 30 goal over 82 game pace. It's not hard to see why most people would bet on Boeser maintaining that pace over Zacha.

I would rather package Zacha + the Islanders 1st for a defenseman, but if we're on the clock at the draft and no trade for D is on the table and Vancouver offers up Boeser for Zacha + the Islanders 1st, I'd probably pull the trigger. I don't see it happening though, so we'll probably see next season one way or the other if this is the "real" Zacha.

 

[TheDuke93]

I've been saying that Boeser for Zacha + a first is a lateral move if everyone is pointing to me as the guy who said Boeser and Zacha are 'equivalent' (which I didn't say). Petterson is a star. Boeser is a very good player who has benefited alot from first line, first PP minutes almost his entire career. It seems like all of our centers combined have won as many faceoffs as Horvat, for all of you possession lovers.

We dont' know what we have in Zacha yet because he's played with crap, and out of position, his entire career and when he finally produces to lead our crappy team in points, on a ridiculously cheap 2.25m contract, you want to trade him PLUS a first for a guy making 5.8+AAV who's contract will expire at the same time who has 7 more points and is the same age. For a guy with injury concerns who hasn't cracked 60 points.

When what we need is a RHD if we are going to deal assets.

Oh, and yeah - look at that 'unsustainable' S%, since that was popular in the Zacha argument:

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	PPP	SHG	SHP	GWG	OTG	S	S%	FO%
2016-2017	VAN	9	4	1	5	0	0	2	2	0	0	1	0	25	16	0
2017-2018	VAN	62	29	26	55	-5	16	10	23	0	0	4	0	179	16.2	25.64
2018-2019	VAN	69	26	30	56	-2	22	6	15	0	0	3	1	209	12.44	43.33
2019-2020	VAN	57	16	29	45	4	14	5	14	0	0	3	0	169	9.5	36.67
2020-2021	VAN	49	20	21	41	-6	12	7	12	1	1	1	0	119	16.8	35.29

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

His unstainable shooting % has been there since the day he stepped into the league. He has been hurt like his entire career and still produces at an unbelievable rate. Saying Zacha + a 1st is a lateral move, while not being the same as saying they are equal is pretty damn close to me. So if that isn't what you meant I am sorry but that is the only way that I can personally interpret it.

 

[Guttersniped]

We dont' know what we have in Zacha yet because he's played with crap, and out of position, his entire career and when he finally produces to lead our crappy team in points, on a ridiculously cheap 2.25m contract, you want to trade him PLUS a first for a guy making 5.8+AAV who's contract will expire at the same time who has 7 more points and is the same age. For a guy with injury concerns who hasn't cracked 60 points.

When what we need is a RHD if we are going to deal assets.

Oh, and yeah - look at that 'unsustainable' S%, since that was popular in the Zacha argument:

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	PPP	SHG	SHP	GWG	OTG	S	S%	FO%
2016-2017	VAN	9	4	1	5	0	0	2	2	0	0	1	0	25	16	0
2017-2018	VAN	62	29	26	55	-5	16	10	23	0	0	4	0	179	16.2	25.64
2018-2019	VAN	69	26	30	56	-2	22	6	15	0	0	3	1	209	12.44	43.33
2019-2020	VAN	57	16	29	45	4	14	5	14	0	0	3	0	169	9.5	36.67
2020-2021	VAN	49	20	21	41	-6	12	7	12	1	1	1	0	119	16.8	35.29

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Boeser is an elite sniper who had back issues last season that screwed up his shooting form. No one said players who maintain high % year after year don’t exist.

Henrique’s average shooting % in NJ (9 years) was 15% and it’s 16.2% in his 4 years in Anaheim. He’s filthy too.

Zacha’s is 10.7%, now, after shooting 15.8% this season over 49 games. He’s only has one other season when he shot well, 2018-19, and he shot pretty poorly his other three seasons. Particularly 5v5. It’s great that he’s having another strong shooting year and hopefully he will have another. But he’s not Boeser and not Henrique. Let’s see how he does next season, I’m not condemning him but he doesn’t exactly have sniper cred yet.

And the other reason he had so few goals, particularly 5v5, last season and really every season before this, except 2018-19, was not only did he generally shoot poorly 5v5, he didn’t shoot the puck nearly enough. And the one year he did shoot the puck the most before this year, 2017-18, was also the year of his worst overall shooting %.

And, oh boy, did Zacha not shoot the puck 5v5 last season. It was the worst shot rate of career. But, huzzah, he’s shooting as much, if not better, then his last shooting peak (2017-18) and has beaten his best year shooting %-wise (2018-19). That’s gets us Pavgoal Shotcha’s career number of goals.

And shots/60 and shot creation is even more important than shooting %, because that effects how many good shots you get and how many goals you can have. (Shooting % does matter too.) A player that doesn’t shoot much and doesn’t shoot well doesn’t deserve the ice time that Zacha got last year. He needs to continue to get pucks on net like he’s doing now, and hopefully the shooting % won’t drop too much. And no, I don’t think it will be ~15% next year but that’s very high bar.

 

[OmNomNom]

So this popped up in my Youtube recommendations today. A blast from the past and shows our collective mental state at the time.

aw sad just found out that guy (risitas) died a bit over a month ago

 

[Guttersniped]

If this season of Zacha is what we get from now on, then I would agree that Boeser is not a huge upgrade. The problem is we have exactly one season where Zacha has produced at this level, compared to 4 seasons where Boeser has basically played at a 30 goal over 82 game pace. It's not hard to see why most people would bet on Boeser maintaining that pace over Zacha.

I would rather package Zacha + the Islanders 1st for a defenseman, but if we're on the clock at the draft and no trade for D is on the table and Vancouver offers up Boeser for Zacha + the Islanders 1st, I'd probably pull the trigger. I don't see it happening though, so we'll probably see next season one way or the other if this is the "real" Zacha.

I can’t see the team spending assets on a RW sniper after drafting Holtz.

And Boeser has been very open about his injury past and he says he hasn’t felt this good since his rookie year before he fractured his back. But his injury history is pretty gnarly, including that fractured lower back. It was still effecting him even last season. He broke his ribs last season too.

And he had a bad wrist injury at some point that effected his wrist shot for a while though he seems to be shooting it real well this season. This is the first season he hasn’t missed time but it’s only been 49 games.

Here’s how he fractured his back (trigger warning if you have back problems, it looks viscerally painful.)

 

[TheDuke93]

I can’t see the team spending assets on a RW sniper after drafting Holtz.

And Boeser has been very open about his injury past and he says he hasn’t felt this good since his rookie year before he fractured his back. But his injury history is pretty gnarly, including that fractured lower back. It was still effecting him even last season. He broke his ribs last season too.

And he had a bad wrist injury at some point that effected his wrist shot for a while though he seems to be shooting it real well this season. This is the first season he hasn’t missed time but it’s only been 49 games.

Here’s how he fractured his back (trigger warning if you have back problems, it looks viscerally painful.)

I remember seeing that, awful and unlucky.

I don't think this needs to be said but me praising Boeser has no bearing on what I think about Zacha. I feel it's fair to be concerned about Zacha's production seeming some what flukey this season.

The shot rate being way up does give me enough confidence that he can be a 50 point producer though.

 

[TheDuke93]

My last comments on keeping Zacha vs trading him to upgrade the roster. If we can get a legitimate impact forward or defensemen that is a big upgrade you do it. I don't know if there is any feasible scenario were that happens but I feel that if such situation were to present itself you pull the trigger.

Now as for keeping Zacha which ultimately we will do and would be the right decision 99% of the time I think you only have to really factor in a few things.

1. His shot rate is way up and is that just a product of him becoming a better hockey player or something else? As many have pointed it out it seems to mostly be confidence, I believe he has said this in pressers numerous times now.

2. His compete seems to be MUCH better. I don't think this is so much a player thing as it is a coach thing. Look at how much more consistent Bratt is since Ruff came in as opposed to under Hynes. I would guess coaching plays a big part in this.

3. Moving to the wing Zacha doesn't have to be the main play driver. Zacha is good in open space and when he is moving with speed. He is not explosive and struggles in the transition when he has to stop and start. Nico and Bratt solve this problem almost entirely.

4. Zacha has less defensive responsibilities. Being near the point he just has to get in the way and keep his stick in the lane to be relatively effective. His turnovers are still a big concern at our blueline though. While I still don't think he is a good defensive player I think being caved this year more so has to do with our defense being mostly traded/out/ahl replacements and the fact that he played roughly 8 games with a broken down Nico.

All in all I think Zacha will be able to consistently be a 50 point player moving forward. Not what we hoped from a 6th overall pick but I do believe he was mismanaged. There might still be room for growth there as well but that is being very optimistic imo.

Some data to paint a better picture.

 

[BurntToast]

It’s official, the teams that got hit the hardest by Covid-19 had long stretches of bad hockey and none made the playoffs.

 

[SJinNewJersey]

whoever suggested protecting mcleod over zacha is out to lunch

We should be protecting them both.