Devils 2020-21 team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part VIII

[Billdo]

wait what?

One of these sentences is not the like the other.

My brain hurts trying to figure that out.

 

[Fear the Wushu]

Pfizer claims their vaccine is 90% effective. It’s curious why the Devil last few players haven’t signed. I think the Devils might be waiting as long as possible to see what happens with the teams up to or over the cap. Hopefully, they don’t trade Bratt..

Bratt is not an untouchable piece but I don't see the purpose of trading a player with his skillset, he is only going to continue to progress. I'm pretty sure management considers him part of our core.

 

[ADD-devil950003]

I’m still worried about our D going into the season. If healthy it looks like we at least added some more stability in our own end but putting Severson on the first pairing is a recipe for disaster. On the other hand I’m not sure if PK on a first pair is any better but Blackwood/Crawford will absolutely have to stand on their heads for us to be decent. A top four that includes Severson/Butcher is going to get torched by the league. Sevs is a 2nd pair guy at best and butcher is a bottom pair guy.

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

I’m still worried about our D going into the season. If healthy it looks like we at least added some more stability in our own end but putting Severson on the first pairing is a recipe for disaster. On the other hand I’m not sure if PK on a first pair is any better but Blackwood/Crawford will absolutely have to stand on their heads for us to be decent. A top four that includes Severson/Butcher is going to get torched by the league. Sevs is a 2nd pair guy at best and butcher is a bottom pair guy.

I think if we go into next year without adding another Top 4 D we will be in a similar spot to the past few years. Especially relying on Ryan Murray as likely the only Top 4 caliber LHD we have (Assuming Ty Smith isnt a complete stud from Day 1 and plays the off side as most people think he will). Nothing has happened for a while in this offseason, but I personally will be disappointed to go into next year without getting a deal done with a cap strapped team like St Louis or Tampa for their young RFA D man. I am actually okay with Sevs on the first pair as long as Ryan Murray is there, but theres a good chance Ryan Murray misses about 20 games so its obviously not great to have Kulikov as the backup to Ryan Murray, another D man who has recently played bigger minutes than he should and struggled because of it.

 

[TrufleShufle]

As much as I'd love to see a sure fire top D added to the team, I can see the wait and see mentality. These signings and trades are short term gap fillers.

To play Devils gm advocate, I can see them thinking, we have a lot of D prospects not quite ready but knocking hard on the door. Maybe we don't trade assets that would create future holes in case one or more of these guys work out. We aren't winning the cup next year, so why give up assets up front while creating a possible log jam in the back. Other than having a good RHD we have a lot of guys who can fill in a lot of the holes we already have. If it gets to the point where all these holes get filled from within and we still have a couple prospects who are left out in the cold, we can trade them for a RHD and be done.

Not sure if that's what is going on, but I can see the case for it.

 

[njdevils1982]

at one point there was apparently a best of Talking Heads compilation being put together and the record company said it would make big bucks if they played shows in bigger cities to support it. Byrne couldn’t be talked into it. As for the Beatles, based on what I’ve read I think John would have done something with McCartney on his Venus and Mars album had he not returned to Yoko from his lost weekend after the Elton John Thanksgiving show at MSG. George would have complained bitterly but I think had John and Paul wanted to do something as the four of them on Ringo’s Stop and Smell the Roses album he would have relented. Sigh.

theres always this masterpiece though

No Talking Just Head - The Heads | Songs, Reviews, Credits | AllMusic

 

[Blackjack]

I think if we go into next year without adding another Top 4 D we will be in a similar spot to the past few years. Especially relying on Ryan Murray as likely the only Top 4 caliber LHD we have (Assuming Ty Smith isnt a complete stud from Day 1 and plays the off side as most people think he will). Nothing has happened for a while in this offseason, but I personally will be disappointed to go into next year without getting a deal done with a cap strapped team like St Louis or Tampa for their young RFA D man. I am actually okay with Sevs on the first pair as long as Ryan Murray is there, but theres a good chance Ryan Murray misses about 20 games so its obviously not great to have Kulikov as the backup to Ryan Murray, another D man who has recently played bigger minutes than he should and struggled because of it.

I feel that Butcher is capable of being a top 4 LD, although he wasn't last season. That said, your point about Murray is spot on, I still really hope that they can somehow add another LD.

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

I feel that Butcher is capable of being a top 4 LD, although he wasn't last season. That said, your point about Murray is spot on, I still really hope that they can somehow add another LD.

He is capable, but he cant play with severson and we will have to see about Subban. He's not a slam dunk top 4 D man, needs a certain partner most likely and Im hoping its subban in a bounce back year but its more likely someone like Cernak or better. I am still someone who badly wants to add Vince Dunn, big fan of his game.

 

[Nubmer6]

He is capable, but he cant play with severson and we will have to see about Subban.

From: Butcher vs. Kulikov: Who Should Have a Bigger Role for the Devils?

If Will Butcher played on the second pairing next season, he would in all likelihood be playing with P.K. Subban. This was not Butcher’s main pairing last season, but it was his best. According to Natural Stat Trick, when Butcher played with Subban at even strength, he had:

173:27 TOI, 52.63 CF%, 109-91 shot ratio (54.50 SF%), 9-11 goals ratio (45.00 GF%), 8.1-8.03 xG ratio (50.22 xGF%), 0.962 PDO

In all other pairings, Butcher had:

734:51 TOI, 45.42 CF%, 364-419 shot ratio (46.49 SF%), 34-38 goals ratio (47.22 GF%), 26.47-30.23 xG ratio (46.68 xGF%), 1.003 PDO

 

[Cheddabombs]

I really don't see any other option for our defense pairs outside of

Murray - Severson
Butcher - Subban
Kulikov - Smith

That's an upgrade over last year IMO but it's when Murray gets inevitably injured that things get dicey. Everyone knows we need a top pairing guy but those are few and far between and difficult to acquire. If we can manage to get Dunn for cheap then sure, maybe a few other options too, but otherwise it is what it is and we should just let the year play out, we don't need a top pairing guy this season.

 

[Nubmer6]

As much as I'd love to see a sure fire top D added to the team, I can see the wait and see mentality. These signings and trades are short term gap fillers.

To play Devils gm advocate, I can see them thinking, we have a lot of D prospects not quite ready but knocking hard on the door. Maybe we don't trade assets that would create future holes in case one or more of these guys work out. We aren't winning the cup next year, so why give up assets up front while creating a possible log jam in the back. Other than having a good RHD we have a lot of guys who can fill in a lot of the holes we already have. If it gets to the point where all these holes get filled from within and we still have a couple prospects who are left out in the cold, we can trade them for a RHD and be done.

Not sure if that's what is going on, but I can see the case for it.

I'm pretty sure that's what's going on. Fitz had talked about young kids developing and filling in the gaps till they're ready. This is a pretty good example of that.

 

[Hischier and Hughes]

I’m still worried about our D going into the season. If healthy it looks like we at least added some more stability in our own end but putting Severson on the first pairing is a recipe for disaster. On the other hand I’m not sure if PK on a first pair is any better but Blackwood/Crawford will absolutely have to stand on their heads for us to be decent. A top four that includes Severson/Butcher is going to get torched by the league. Sevs is a 2nd pair guy at best and butcher is a bottom pair guy.

Severson is a #2 and people need to start accepting that as his role

Why does he get so much hate by Devils fans?

 

[HBK27]

I really don't see any other option for our defense pairs outside of

Murray - Severson
Butcher - Subban
Kulikov - Smith

That's an upgrade over last year IMO but it's when Murray gets inevitably injured that things get dicey. Everyone knows we need a top pairing guy but those are few and far between and difficult to acquire. If we can manage to get Dunn for cheap then sure, maybe a few other options too, but otherwise it is what it is and we should just let the year play out, we don't need a top pairing guy this season.

Yeah, I really don't see how we go with any other pairings to start the season with Carrick being a healthy scratch - which I'm fine with for this season.

I think it is imperative that Fitzgerald acquire a young top-4 (or at least potential) defenseman prior to the expansion draft. Of course, Shero failed miserably at this with the Mueller acquisition. As it is, New Jersey only has 2 defensemen worth protecting in the expansion draft - Severson and Butcher. Subban would have to have a monster of a bounce back season to be considered to be protected, which is highly unlikely. If Seattle wants to take a 32-year old rapidly declining defenseman with a $9MM cap hit, good - it prevents us from losing a younger player with a possible future on the team. Fitz needs to take advantage of all the picks/prospects we have and the lack of a decent 3rd defenseman to protect and trade for one from a team that would otherwise likely lose the player to Seattle. I think teams have learned from the Vegas draft that working out side deals with an expansion team to protect certain players didn't turn out especially well, so we'll see more teams maybe work out deals with other teams besides Seattle ahead of time and just let the Kraken make a pick.

With the guys we currently have, how does NJ's depth chart look in Binghamton?

For possible call-ups are we looking at:

Tennyson
White
Jacobs
Walsh
Bahl
Okhotyuk

 

[SpeakingOfTheDevils]

As much as I'd love to see a sure fire top D added to the team, I can see the wait and see mentality. These signings and trades are short term gap fillers.

To play Devils gm advocate, I can see them thinking, we have a lot of D prospects not quite ready but knocking hard on the door. Maybe we don't trade assets that would create future holes in case one or more of these guys work out. We aren't winning the cup next year, so why give up assets up front while creating a possible log jam in the back. Other than having a good RHD we have a lot of guys who can fill in a lot of the holes we already have. If it gets to the point where all these holes get filled from within and we still have a couple prospects who are left out in the cold, we can trade them for a RHD and be done.

Not sure if that's what is going on, but I can see the case for it.

They should look into Alex Goligoski.

One year left with $5.475M cap hit but only $4M in actual salary. Very steady, two-way veteran who consistently bags 20-22 minutes a night. Maybe not a "surefire top D" as you said, but a rock solid top-4 addition for the short-term.

Given Arizona's desire to dump cap and cash, I'm sure it would only take a late pick a la Murray - especially with no retention.

Murray - Severson
Goligoski - Subban
Kulikov - Butcher
Smith

If/when injury strikes...

Goligoski - Severson
Butcher - Subban
Kulikov - Smith

We need that kind of buffer. Without a guy like Goligoski, our pants are at our ankles if Murray or Kulikov (or, God forbid, both) get injured.

 

[Blackjack]

Yeah, I really don't see how we go with any other pairings to start the season with Carrick being a healthy scratch - which I'm fine with for this season.

I think it is imperative that Fitzgerald acquire a young top-4 (or at least potential) defenseman prior to the expansion draft. Of course, Shero failed miserably at this with the Mueller acquisition. As it is, New Jersey only has 2 defensemen worth protecting in the expansion draft - Severson and Butcher. Subban would have to have a monster of a bounce back season to be considered to be protected, which is highly unlikely. If Seattle wants to take a 32-year old rapidly declining defenseman with a $9MM cap hit, good - it prevents us from losing a younger player with a possible future on the team. Fitz needs to take advantage of all the picks/prospects we have and the lack of a decent 3rd defenseman to protect and trade for one from a team that would otherwise likely lose the player to Seattle. I think teams have learned from the Vegas draft that working out side deals with an expansion team to protect certain players didn't turn out especially well, so we'll see more teams maybe work out deals with other teams besides Seattle ahead of time and just let the Kraken make a pick.

With the guys we currently have, how does NJ's depth chart look in Binghamton?

For possible call-ups are we looking at:

Tennyson
White
Jacobs
Walsh
Bahl
Okhotyuk

Yeah, totally agree that the expansion draft is the time to get something done. Unfortunately that leaves us very thin for this season.

 

[HBK27]

I'm pretty sure that's what's going on. Fitz had talked about young kids developing and filling in the gaps till they're ready. This is a pretty good example of that.

On the forward side, we have 9 spots taken by vets. I still feel like there will be an additional move or two made, whether it be taking on a cap dump from another team or signing a UFA to a 1-year deal that can be flipped at the deadline. Also a smaller possibility they make a waiver claim on players other teams are trying to sneak through to the AHL right before the season starts.

Still, I like that there are a lot of spots up for grabs for the prospects.

While there could always be a Bratt-like surprise to make the team out of camp, I think it's safe to say that the remaining 3-5 forward spots available opening night would be among the following 9 players:

Bastian
Merkley
Boqvist
McLeod
Sharangovich
Kuokkonen
Seney
Maltsev
Foote

Maltsev and Foote are probably long-shots that could use some more seasoning in the minors, but with a really good camp for either player who knows.

I still think Merkley and Bastian have the inside track on an opening night spot just on the basis of not being waiver exempt, as I wouldn't want to risk losing either player for nothing. Seems like they'd have to have a disasterous camp to not make the opening night roster. Boqvist also seems to be a solid bet to make the team with a good camp. I'm sure they're also rooting to McLeod to make it, otherwise he's quickly approaching bust territory. If Sharangovich keeps up his current pace, he'd make a strong case to make the opening night roster as well. Kuokkanen doesn't have much more to prove in the AHL and he was getting ready to get a look with the big club when the season was suspended, but he may be ticketed for Binghamton as one of the first call-ups.

Will be interesting to see how the final roster spots fill out, especially if they are made up of prospects instead of a vet or two mixed in that could just be a healthy scratch for the most part. With a likely condensed schedule, maybe Ruff would look to mix in the 13th & 14th forwards a little more.

 

[HBK27]

They should look into Alex Goligoski.

One year left with $5.475M cap hit but only $4M in actual salary. Very steady, two-way veteran who consistently bags 20-22 minutes a night. Maybe not a "surefire top D" as you said, but a rock solid top-4 addition for the short-term.

Given Arizona's desire to dump cap and cash, I'm sure it would only take a late pick a la Murray - especially with no retention.

Murray - Severson
Goligoski - Subban
Kulikov - Butcher
Smith

If/when injury strikes...

Goligoski - Severson
Butcher - Subban
Kulikov - Smith

We need that kind of buffer. Without a guy like Goligoski, our pants are at our ankles if Murray or Kulikov (or, God forbid, both) get injured.

If Arizona were looking to give him away for next to nothing, I'd certainly be in favor of that move - though it feels like that would've already happened before Fitz signed Kulikov. It feels like we're largely set on defense, barring a trade that's too good to turn down (such as a cap dump with some nice assets or a Nate Schmidt type scenario).

Smith dressing as the 7th defenseman doesn't do a whole lot of good - seems like if he doesn't make the top 6 (which would be a surprise) he'd be better off getting some quality minutes in Binghamton and being called up once the inevitable injury strikes. Let Carrick or Kulikov ride it out in the press box and dress on an emergency basis.

 

[HBK27]

Yeah, totally agree that the expansion draft is the time to get something done. Unfortunately that leaves us very thin for this season.

Yeah, it definitely does. I'm not expecting much this season beyond seeing progress among our prospects and younger players. Certainly having the Crawford in the fold will keep us in games where we otherwise didn't stand a chance, but even with another decent defenseman this team still feels far off from the playoffs.

Let's see some nice progress from Nico, Hughes, Bratt, Zacha and a few of the younger players - make some shrewd moves next offseason and set up for a playoff run in 2021-2022.

Being out of the playoffs also makes things either on the Palmieri and Gusev fronts - either re-sign them or ship them off at the trade deadline.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

I'd much rather sign someone to a one year prove it deal than trade for Goligoski. A lot of talented guys out there actually. I was thinking the Devils might want to sign a complete 3rd line if everyone accepted 1-2 year deals.

 

[Jack Be Quick]

I’m still worried about our D going into the season. If healthy it looks like we at least added some more stability in our own end but putting Severson on the first pairing is a recipe for disaster. On the other hand I’m not sure if PK on a first pair is any better but Blackwood/Crawford will absolutely have to stand on their heads for us to be decent. A top four that includes Severson/Butcher is going to get torched by the league. Sevs is a 2nd pair guy at best and butcher is a bottom pair guy.

Sevs is not the disaster. He'd be perfectly serviceable on a top pairing with a legit #1. Unfortunately the Devils do not have that guy. Which makes him the best d-man on the team.

Do you want or expect PK to play 24 minutes per game?

There's also no chance Butcher is on a top pairing anywhere outside of Binghamton.

 

[Jack Be Quick]

He is capable, but he cant play with severson and we will have to see about Subban. He's not a slam dunk top 4 D man, needs a certain partner most likely and Im hoping its subban in a bounce back year but its more likely someone like Cernak or better. I am still someone who badly wants to add Vince Dunn, big fan of his game.

The kid can't skate. How in the world are you going to throw Will out there against, I don't know, the Capitals second line?

We need to come to terms with the fact that Murray, Kulikov, and/or Ty are the top 2 LD.

 

[None Shall Pass]

On the forward side, we have 9 spots taken by vets. I still feel like there will be an additional move or two made, whether it be taking on a cap dump from another team or signing a UFA to a 1-year deal that can be flipped at the deadline. Also a smaller possibility they make a waiver claim on players other teams are trying to sneak through to the AHL right before the season starts.

Still, I like that there are a lot of spots up for grabs for the prospects.

While there could always be a Bratt-like surprise to make the team out of camp, I think it's safe to say that the remaining 3-5 forward spots available opening night would be among the following 9 players:

Bastian
Merkley
Boqvist
McLeod
Sharangovich
Kuokkonen
Seney
Maltsev
Foote

Maltsev and Foote are probably long-shots that could use some more seasoning in the minors, but with a really good camp for either player who knows.

I still think Merkley and Bastian have the inside track on an opening night spot just on the basis of not being waiver exempt, as I wouldn't want to risk losing either player for nothing. Seems like they'd have to have a disasterous camp to not make the opening night roster. Boqvist also seems to be a solid bet to make the team with a good camp. I'm sure they're also rooting to McLeod to make it, otherwise he's quickly approaching bust territory. If Sharangovich keeps up his current pace, he'd make a strong case to make the opening night roster as well. Kuokkanen doesn't have much more to prove in the AHL and he was getting ready to get a look with the big club when the season was suspended, but he may be ticketed for Binghamton as one of the first call-ups.

Will be interesting to see how the final roster spots fill out, especially if they are made up of prospects instead of a vet or two mixed in that could just be a healthy scratch for the most part. With a likely condensed schedule, maybe Ruff would look to mix in the 13th & 14th forwards a little more.

Adding to this (very good) post:

-We still don't know if / how the AHL will play this year. There's a not-small chance that it doesn't happen and the NHL rosters get expanded as a result, allowing us to carry a few more of these guys than we'd normally expect.

-A condensed schedule would work well for our prospects. Younger guys have energy to spare and won't get bogged down as bad as they would with an 82-game slog.

 

[Hischier and Hughes]

Adding to this (very good) post:

-We still don't know if / how the AHL will play this year. There's a not-small chance that it doesn't happen and the NHL rosters get expanded as a result, allowing us to carry a few more of these guys than we'd normally expect.

-A condensed schedule would work well for our prospects. Younger guys have energy to spare and won't get bogged down as bad as they would with an 82-game slog.

I would think a condensed schedule is a negative for our young guys

It takes away time to themselves, time to recover and replenish, time in between games is shorter and they dont have that peak adult stamina, etc..

Also less practices and time for outside development/education including tape and personal training

 

[The 29th Pick]

at one point there was apparently a best of Talking Heads compilation being put together and the record company said it would make big bucks if they played shows in bigger cities to support it. Byrne couldn’t be talked into it. As for the Beatles, based on what I’ve read I think John would have done something with McCartney on his Venus and Mars album had he not returned to Yoko from his lost weekend after the Elton John Thanksgiving show at MSG. George would have complained bitterly but I think had John and Paul wanted to do something as the four of them on Ringo’s Stop and Smell the Roses album he would have relented. Sigh.

I think we talked about how Paul was in NY for something (in the 70s) and John was gonna come down to the studio hosting SNL and the two of them were gonna do a song or two on SNL. It almost happened but...
And I remember an interview with John saying it would take something huge like world peace to get the boys back together for a concert, it's possible he said but not probable

 

[My3Sons]

I think we talked about how Paul was in NY for something (in the 70s) and John was gonna come down to the studio hosting SNL and the two of them were gonna do a song or two on SNL. It almost happened but...
And I remember an interview with John saying it would take something huge like world peace to get the boys back together for a concert, it's possible he said but not probable

Judging from John’s spur of the moment agreement to join Elton John onstage, the spur of the moment happy accident that was the one time John and Paul played together in 1974, and the spur of the moment story behind the I’m the Greatest session, I’m pretty convinced that John would have said ok to something that made sense to him if it was treated casually and downplayed in the moment. Nobody Told Me was going to be John’s contribution to Stop and Smell the Roses. Had John and Paul simply sang backup on that I could have seen something like that coming to pass. All Those Years Ago was also intended for Starr at that time. Paul sang backup on George’s final version which featured Starr on drums. I could easily see that featuring all four ex-Beatles had they been able to do it quietly.