Devils 2020-21 team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part VI

[Hischier and Hughes]

Everyones immediate reactions to picking Askarov at 7 would be hilarious and sad at the same time

However the BPA crowd cant argue that Askarov isnt a top-5 talent in this draft. If you are confident there are Mat Barzals and Brayden Points and David Pastrnaks in the 18+ range... is it really that terrible after all?

Being able to say we have the best goaltending prospect since Carey Price AND one or two other 1st line potential talents AND Blackwood ... thats a lot of value that could pay off in some years from now.

Yes its risky but goaltending prospects are MUCH MUCH more heavily scouted and understood than even just two decades ago. They arent as much of a crapshoot as they used to be. In fact one can argue theyre easier to predict based on the amount drafted each year, especially considering the rate the last 5+ years on 1st round goalies is very good and has produced some top end players.

I would be disappointed in the sense that now im nervous what else we do afterwards - but I would be happy that we got a top-5 talent in the draft at 7 and its in a position that is the most valued in the NHL. Next years draft could be our big defensive prospect or maybe Fitzgerald has plans up his sleeve to acquire a young dman.

To sum it up - I wouldnt be mad about Askarov at 7. But it would require us getting some other key trades or picks in to suffice not taking a defenseman or one of the high-end forwards.

But BPA wise only Lafreniere Byfield Stuetzle and maybe Drysdale are better prospects than Askarov IMO.

Edit: since it seems @StevenToddIves is the resident prospect analyst - what are your thoughts on this news and my take on the matter? Im trying to improve my understanding of prospect skill-sets and analysis, not as much specific players in each draft

 

[Guttersniped]

By acquiring Laine, it makes up for the goals we lose from Palms. Makes him a lot more expandable. Palms should easily net us a Top 3D alone now or a B+ D prospect at the deadline. We could realistically walk way with Laine/Bratt on our RW and get a D out of it.

How would Palms easily net us a Top 3D? I’m not sure what you mean by top 3 I guess, I don’t see the easy peasy defensemen trades that other people do.

It’s unlikely anyone will trade for Palmieri until they’re sure there’s a season and have a sense of what it will entail unless we’re getting player who will be a UFA in 2021 in return.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

if we are going to trade Palms, it should be down at the trade deadline. We'd likely get a better return then.

 

[imMagnum]

How would Palms easily net us a Top 3D? I’m not sure what you mean by top 3 I guess, I don’t see the easy peasy defensemen trades that other people do.

It’s unlikely anyone will trade for Palmieri until they’re sure there’s a season and have a sense of what it will entail unless we’re getting player who will be a UFA in 2021 in return.

Probably should’ve just said Top 4. Top 3D is a guy who can lead the second unit or can play on the first.

I say that we can land a Top 3D easily due to his consistent 25 goals he brings every season. I think of teams like NSH or MIN that would pay a premium for consistent scoring.

I agree with you on the unlikeliness of Palms being dealt before the season. It’s much more likely, and beneficial, for us to swing him at the deadline for a team that needs the extra firepower heading into the postseason.

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

Taking a goaltender top 10 is insanity, it’s not BPA because you have much further to go as a goalie to get to the nhl level. It’s much harder to project a goalie and there are at least 8-9 other elite prospects in this draft. Askarov is a great talent, but unless you have a lot of other boxes checked i don’t see how spending a top 10 pick on a goalie makes any sense. Someone used the RB example and it’s sort of perfect for how the draft should go, take a goalie every year rounds 2-7 depending on the internal need and see if that goalie develops. First round picks should not be on goalies for most teams.

 

[R8Devs]

if we are going to trade Palms, it should be down at the trade deadline. We'd likely get a better return then.

If they can get a first round pick in this draft for him it could be better for them. They could have four first round picks and they could parlay that into a really good young player while still having at least two picks in the first round.

 

[Triumph]

Taking a goaltender top 10 is insanity, it’s not BPA because you have much further to go as a goalie to get to the nhl level. It’s much harder to project a goalie and there are at least 8-9 other elite prospects in this draft. Askarov is a great talent, but unless you have a lot of other boxes checked i don’t see how spending a top 10 pick on a goalie makes any sense. Someone used the RB example and it’s sort of perfect for how the draft should go, take a goalie every year rounds 2-7 depending on the internal need and see if that goalie develops. First round picks should not be on goalies for most teams.

The running back analogy doesn't quite work because unlike running backs who basically come into the NFL near their peak, goalies take forever to develop. Every other player taken in the top 10 who is any good at all will be in the NHL and doing well long before Askarov gets there.

 

[MadDevil]

By acquiring Laine, it makes up for the goals we lose from Palms. Makes him a lot more expandable. Palms should easily net us a Top 3D alone now or a B+ D prospect at the deadline. We could realistically walk way with Laine/Bratt on our RW and get a D out of it.

In theory, that would be nice. In reality, I don't see it happening. One year of Palmieri likely isn't landing us the top 4, let alone top 3, defenseman we need. It's more likely we'd end up with Laine to replace Palms (whose goals-per-game has been very similar to Laine's over the past 2 seasons) but then a lesser defenseman than Severson or an unproven prospect or not even a replacement at all. Unless we do a sign-and-trade with Palms, but I find that highly unlikely.

 

[Unknown Caller]

Taking a goaltender top 10 is insanity, it’s not BPA because you have much further to go as a goalie to get to the nhl level. It’s much harder to project a goalie and there are at least 8-9 other elite prospects in this draft. Askarov is a great talent, but unless you have a lot of other boxes checked i don’t see how spending a top 10 pick on a goalie makes any sense. Someone used the RB example and it’s sort of perfect for how the draft should go, take a goalie every year rounds 2-7 depending on the internal need and see if that goalie develops. First round picks should not be on goalies for most teams.

I’m definitely not in favor of taking Askarov at 7, but he’s probably closer to the NHL than most people realize. He has a .970 sv% and 0.74 gaa in the KHL. Not the MHL, not the VHL, but the second best men’s league in the world.

Again, small sample size this season and I wouldn’t take him at 7, but he’s a different goalie prospect than we’re used to. In the scenario the Devils can package some picks and move up to the 10 range, I would look out for them taking Askarov with the next pick.

 

[Billdo]

Friedman on his 31 thoughts podcast brings up that teams have been telling him some feel the devils go askarov at 7

I will give up any hope of us being relevant within 5 years if we do that.

 

[FinnishDevil]

I’m definitely not in favor of taking Askarov at 7, but he’s probably closer to the NHL than most people realize. He has a .970 sv% and 0.74 gaa in the KHL. Not the MHL, not the VHL, but the second best men’s league in the world.

Again, small sample size this season and I wouldn’t take him at 7, but he’s a different goalie prospect than we’re used to. In the scenario the Devils can package some picks and move up to the 10 range, I would look out for them taking Askarov with the next pick.

I think its safe to say he'll be an elite goalie in this league, but he's playing behind SKA where guys like Magnus Hellberg and Mikko Koskinen have been posting crazy stats the past few years. The likes of 1.5 goals against and up to .940 sv% over a FULL season.. on top of that goalie stats in KHL are out of this world in general.

Yes theres also been guys like Shestyorkin and Askarov is super young to do it and deserves all the respect for it, but for goodness sake lets not draft him at 7.

This was not meant at you @Unknown Caller but more in general.

 

[Nubmer6]

If Palms can fetch us a top 4 D man, it isn't going to happen at the trade deadline. That's when teams are stocking up on D, not trading them away.

 

[glenwo2]

If Palms can fetch us a top 4 D man, it isn't going to happen at the trade deadline. That's when teams are stocking up on D, not trading them away.

Now I want Palms to remain a Devil so this is just a hypothetical question :

Do you think he CAN fetch us a Top 4 D-man?

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

If Palms can fetch us a top 4 D man, it isn't going to happen at the trade deadline. That's when teams are stocking up on D, not trading them away.

the problem is I don't think he can fetch us a surefire top 4 DMan

one deal I had seen bandied about on the trade board was Palmieri for Jake Bean and Nino Niederreiter

 

[My3Sons]

What about disgust? What does disgust lead to? This is exactly like the Giants taking Saquon. Yeah, great player, terrible value.

Probably a lot of mediocre sequel ideas

 

[Cheddabombs]

Taking a goaltender top 10 is insanity, it’s not BPA because you have much further to go as a goalie to get to the nhl level. It’s much harder to project a goalie and there are at least 8-9 other elite prospects in this draft. Askarov is a great talent, but unless you have a lot of other boxes checked i don’t see how spending a top 10 pick on a goalie makes any sense. Someone used the RB example and it’s sort of perfect for how the draft should go, take a goalie every year rounds 2-7 depending on the internal need and see if that goalie develops. First round picks should not be on goalies for most teams.

And a team with three first round picks is a team that can take a goalie. I wouldn't take him at 7 but definitely would if he's there at 18, and if the value is there to trade up and get him I could see the reasoning there too.

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

And a team with three first round picks is a team that can take a goalie. I wouldn't take him at 7 but definitely would if he's there at 18, and if the value is there to trade up and get him I could see the reasoning there too.

taking him at 18 or 20 then that’s really good value. At 7 though? With potentially first line/pair players on the board? Just don’t see why that would even be close to happening for us. I believe the team thinks Blackwood is the answer long term but even if they wanted to see more you don’t spend the 7th pick on a goalie.

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

The running back analogy doesn't quite work because unlike running backs who basically come into the NFL near their peak, goalies take forever to develop. Every other player taken in the top 10 who is any good at all will be in the NHL and doing well long before Askarov gets there.

the analogy I was making was more about how to treat drafting them, not how they adjust into the nhl. They are opposites in that way as you mentioned, I’m more just talking about how to go about drafting goalies and drafting RBs. I’ve liked our draft strategy with goalies, we seem to take one every year and they fit the mold of the current stud goalies of being big athletes. Obviously most wont work out but Blackwood looks super good and i think spending a 7th pick on a goalie right now would be astronomically stupid.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

I like the transparency

 

[Forge]

I like the transparency

Jake Bean at eliteprospects.com

 

[Auto Pilot]

And a team with three first round picks is a team that can take a goalie. I wouldn't take him at 7 but definitely would if he's there at 18, and if the value is there to trade up and get him I could see the reasoning there too.

He won’t last until 18. We should not be picking him at 7. We have much bigger issues than goaltending. We need scoring, and another top d prospect. I’d be cool with Holtz, at 7, don’t think Sanderson or Drysdale will be there, though if they are jump on that. Guhle at 18 if we didn’t get a dman before, and another forward at 20.

 

[Forge]

He won’t last until 18. We should not be picking him at 7. We have much bigger issues than goaltending. We need scoring, and another top d prospect. I’d be cool with Holtz, at 7, don’t think Sanderson or Drysdale will be there, though if they are jump on that. Guhle at 18 if we didn’t get a dman before, and another forward at 20.

Have no interest in Guhle for us at all. I'm really hoping we avoid him. Like him just fine as a player but I'd rather us go in a different direction

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

I like the transparency

I think I am really going to like Fitz.

 

[Guttersniped]

He won’t last until 18. We should not be picking him at 7. We have much bigger issues than goaltending. We need scoring, and another top d prospect. I’d be cool with Holtz, at 7, don’t think Sanderson or Drysdale will be there, though if they are jump on that. Guhle at 18 if we didn’t get a dman before, and another forward at 20.

More than one observer has pointed out that we don’t have any a future #1 in prospect pool and we need to draft one. It’s a big need too.

The equivalent to Askarov is Vasilevskiy and Samsonov and in both cases they came to NA early compared to other Russian goalies, particularly Vasi, and once they were in the NHL it allowed their teams to consider moving on from starters approaching UFA and potentially hitting an aging curve. The same arguments that were used against drafting Blackwood are being used now and they were wrong then too.

That said, I don’t believe NJ will do it. Opinions about these prospects vary wildly but in the end I don’t think Fitz will pass up a defenseman and if one or both are gone one of the remaining forwards will prove too intriguing to pass up. Askarov is not some nutso pick though but I wouldn’t get too worked up about it unless it actually happens. Life’s too short.

 

[Auto Pilot]

Have no interest in Guhle for us at all. I'm really hoping we avoid him. Like him just fine as a player but I'd rather us go in a different direction

we can use a mobile big body dman that has a bomb from the point and is really good in his own end.