Devils 2020-21 team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part V

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NJDevs26

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Eh that better not be true going forward with our two 1OA centers. Besides this offense didn't hold down Palmieri or a healthy Hall. We just don't get a lot of goals because we don't have many goalscorers to start with, and haven't actually had a good offense overall for years.

That said I wouldn't want Hornqvist unless he was supercheap, with his age, style of play and the fact he misses games every year he's probably headed for a Simmonds-style crater sooner rather than later.
 

Guttersniped

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Seems like a bad deal for NJ. Hornqvist is 33 and declining. Maybe Wood won’t return much, but I’d still think there’s a deal that makes more sense with NJ’s timeline than this.
Not sure why anyone isn’t spooked by that trade idea, Hornqvist is 4 years older than Palmieri and has three years left on his deal so it’s the equivalent of giving Palms a seven year contract. They’re the same size and both play with a bit of an rough and tumble style that has led to a mildly concerning injury history. The difference is we don’t know even how Horny would do on the Devils.

I’m open to keeping Palmieri but I’m against giving him more than 5 years due to his age and I’m against trading for a beat up 33 old with 3 years/5.3m left on his deal. I’m not interested in helping out the Pens by taking a declining player of their hands.
 
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TrufleShufle

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Not sure why anyone isn’t spooked by that trade idea, Hornqvist is 4 years older than Palmieri and has three years left on his deal so it’s the equivalent of giving Palms a seven year contract. They’re the same size and both play with a bit of an rough and tumble style that has led to a mildly concerning injury history. The difference is we don’t know even how Horny would do on the Devils.

I’m open to keeping Palmieri but I’m against giving him more than 5 years due to his age and I’m against trading for a beat up 33 old with 3 years/5.3m left on his deal. I’m not interested in helping out the Pens by taking a declining player of their hands.
Difference is the 1st 4 years, we'd have Palmieri's, not Horns. Not a lot, if any people are excited about a 7 year for Palms. But if anything are bracing and accepting if that's the cost to have him for the first 4-5.

And the reason I'm ok with Palmieri for 7 is the fact that all our guys should be a lot better by then, but still young. Palms can still be useful as a 3rd liner who can jump up and more importantly a vet presence who grew with all these young guys. If our guys aren't any better in 4-5 years and Palms falls off a cliff as well, then none of it really matters anyway. We can grab Hornqvist at that point....cuz.. screw it.
 

Guttersniped

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Difference is the 1st 4 years, we'd have Palmieri's, not Horns. Not a lot, if any people are excited about a 7 year for Palms. But if anything are bracing and accepting if that's the cost to have him for the first 4-5.

And the reason I'm ok with Palmieri for 7 is the fact that all our guys should be a lot better by then, but still young. Palms can still be useful as a 3rd liner who can jump up and more importantly a vet presence who grew with all these young guys. If our guys aren't any better in 4-5 years and Palms falls off a cliff as well, then none of it really matters anyway. We can grab Hornqvist at that point....cuz.. screw it.
I meant more that trading for Hornqvist now was like getting the equivalent of the last three years of a seven year Palmieri deal without getting the first four. (And it being a different guy.) I think Hornqvist is declining (as do Pens fans), that’s why the Pens want to pawn him off and I don’t get why we should be stuck with what could quickly turn into a bad contact in a year or two. He’s just too old, too pricy and it’s too long a deal for me to feel comfortable about it. I don’t want Horny despite the fun nickname.

I believe we can get Palmieri signed to 5 year deal and I will continue to believe that until reality proves otherwise. I apologize if my point was confusing or still is confusing. I’m a bit sleepy.
 
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Eggtimer

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I’m on board with trading Palms while his value is high.
I know we need scoring wingers to play with Jack and Nico but I’d prefer it if the devils could sign Dadanov as a UFA , cost no assets , and trade Palms for a LHD/ picks / prospect
By the time the Devils are ready to compete , Palms will be out of his prime .
Hell no to a deal longer than 3 years ( don’t think Palms would sign that short of a term)
Regarding trading picks 18 and 20 , only way I would trade them is if one of Sanderson Drysdale Raymond Rossi is there at the range we could trade both our picks for (I’m have no idea what 18+20 would land ,-8-15?) I would say any of those players I listed being there in that range would be very very slim to nothing .
Only other option I would consider trading 18 and/or 20 is if we get a stud , under 25 years old top line forward or top pairing D (again, I don’t think our picks could land that unless another team is in love with a player that is still available when we pick .
Maybe if we take in a cap hit plus trade those picks , Devils could land something like that ?
Something like Gaudreau or Boeser lol. I can dream
 

Forge

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James mirtle did a buy out power rankings if sorts on the athletic and Cory wasn't even in the top 25 lol
 

Blackjack

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While we're on the subject of goaltending; here's the number of regular season games that were started by the Devils's #1 goaltender the last 10 years:

2010-2011 (Brodeur) - 54
2011-2012 (Brodeur) - 59
2012-2013 (Brodeur) - 50 (Extrapolated 29 starts in 48 game season)
2013-2014 (Schneider) - 43
2014-2015 (Schneider) - 68
2015-2016 (Schneider) - 58
2016-2017 (Schneider) - 59
2017-2018 (Schneider) - 40
2018-2019 (Schneider) - 23
2019-2020 (Blackwood) - 51 (Extrapolated 43 starts in 69 game season)

That's an average of just over 50 starts per season. Even if you throw out Schneider's 2018-2019 as an outlier, it's still a little less than 54 games per season. I feel strongly that we do not need a "good backup" goaltender. We need another #1. We need to find a way to draft Askarov. If Fitz can do it without spending #7 on it, great, I have no problem using #18 and #20 to move up.
 

beekay414

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I don't know why Askarov is the only goalie in this draft we are focusing on. Just stick to the trend of drafting one a year. There's no reason that a Samuel Hlavaj, Drew Commesso, Nico Daws, Joel Blomqvist, Jan Bednar, Calle Clang or Will Cranley couldn't end up as a very good NHL goalie.
 

Blackjack

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I don't know why Askarov is the only goalie in this draft we are focusing on. Just stick to the trend of drafting one a year. There's no reason that a Samuel Hlavaj, Drew Commesso, Nico Daws, Joel Blomqvist, Jan Bednar, Calle Clang or Will Cranley couldn't end up as a very good NHL goalie.

Yeah, that's working out pretty good. Brady, Schmid, Senn, and Cormier. I'm focusing on Askarov because he has elite potential, and I'm arguing that we need two elite goaltenders.
 

Triumph

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Nobody has two elite goaltenders and by the time Askarov would make the NHL, Blackwood would likely be gone.

What teams need is two decent goaltenders. Having elite ones is nice but eliteness doesn't seem to last all that long and is extremely unpredictable.
 

beekay414

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Yeah, that's working out pretty good. Brady, Schmid, Senn, and Cormier. I'm focusing on Askarov because he has elite potential, and I'm arguing that we need two elite goaltenders.
1) We don't need two elite goaltenders. That's ridiculous.
2) Goaltender development takes time. Imagine had we given up on Blackwood when he got demoted to the ECHL. You simply never friggin' know when they'll click. Brady's 19, Schmid is 20, Cormier is 22, Senn is 24. Patience is virtue.
 
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Blackjack

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Nobody has two elite goaltenders and by the time Askarov would make the NHL, Blackwood would likely be gone.

What teams need is two decent goaltenders. Having elite ones is nice but eliteness doesn't seem to last all that long and is extremely unpredictable.

The league is changing, I think you will see more teams try to have two top tier goaltenders. Askarov is a phenom who might be ready in a couple years. And there are lots of examples of goaltenders that have maintained a high level of play throughout their careers. Ludqvist, Rask, Luongo, Vasielevskiy, Price, etc.
 

Blackjack

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1) We don't need two elite goaltenders. That's ridiculous.
2) Goaltender development takes time. Imagine had we given up on Blackwood when he got demoted to the ECHL. You simply never friggin' know when they'll click. Brady's 19, Schmid is 20, Cormier is 22, Senn is 24. Patience is virtue.

They're long shots, just like late round forwards and defensemen are long shots. Blackwood was not considered a long shot at all. He was taken with an early 2nd round pick and was considered a very strong goaltending prospect.

No one is saying to give up on them, even if you draft Askarov, you need more than two quality goaltenders on your depth chart. How many goaltenders have played for us in the last 3 years?
 

Triumph

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The league is changing, I think you will see more teams try to have two top tier goaltenders. Askarov is a phenom who might be ready in a couple years. And there are lots of examples of goaltenders that have maintained a high level of play throughout their careers. Ludqvist, Rask, Luongo, Vasielevskiy, Price, etc.

Luongo is retired. Lundqvist and Rask are in their mid to late 30s. Vasilevsky is 26. Price is a perfect example - many great years, also some bad ones.

The league is changing in that the 70 game a year goalie is gone. Two elite goalies? Not happening. Yes, there are backups in this league who have either flubbed their shot at being a starter or have otherwise not received it - Khudobin, Halak, Griess, etc. These sorts of goalies will continue to exist. I just can't see how teams keep 2 guys who are top 10 goalies in the league for more than 2 seasons.
 

Blackjack

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Luongo is retired. Lundqvist and Rask are in their mid to late 30s. Vasilevsky is 26. Price is a perfect example - many great years, also some bad ones.

The league is changing in that the 70 game a year goalie is gone. Two elite goalies? Not happening. Yes, there are backups in this league who have either flubbed their shot at being a starter or have otherwise not received it - Khudobin, Halak, Griess, etc. These sorts of goalies will continue to exist. I just can't see how teams keep 2 guys who are top 10 goalies in the league for more than 2 seasons.

60 game a year goalies might be going too. If Schneider hadn't played 185 games for us in 3 years, maybe he'd still have hips. I see 50/30 splits being common in the future meaning you will absolutely need two starting quality goaltenders and ideally a 3rd goaltender that needs to be as reliable as a legitimate backup is today.
 

beekay414

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They're long shots, just like late round forwards and defensemen are long shots. Blackwood was not considered a long shot at all. He was taken with an early 2nd round pick and was considered a very strong goaltending prospect.

No one is saying to give up on them, even if you draft Askarov, you need more than two quality goaltenders on your depth chart. How many goaltenders have played for us in the last 3 years?
That's fine. Still doesn't mean we need to invest a high first round pick (what it will take) into a goalie. We can simply invest our 3rd rounder into one of the guys I already mentioned. Askarov isn't the only good goalie that's going to come from this draft.

Investing a high first round pick in a goalie is like doing so with a running back or inside linebacker. Makes no sense. Goalies are hit or miss, period. If Askarov makes it to 18? Cool, take the chance then. I'm not taking him at 7 nor am I trading up for him. I'd much rather take my chance on one of the gentlemen I listed later.
 

Nicomo Cosca

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BTW, the goalie that just won the Vezina was a "longshot" too. But that doesn't fit the narrative right now...

Hellebuyck - 5th round
Vasilevskiy - 1st round (#19)
Rinne - 8th round
Bobrovsky - undrafted
Holtby - 4th round

Those are the last 5 Vezina winners. You clearly don’t need to spend a high draft pick on a goalie to get “elite” production.
 

Nubmer6

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Haha, and the last two before that were Carey Price and Tuukka Rask.

Even so, half the Vezina winners weren't 1st rounders over that period.

Someone's got to do an analysis of the success rate of 1st round goalie selections over the last 10 or 15 years that include bust, success, and superstar rates compared to rates for forwards and D. I would find it very interesting to have the numbers confirm or deny my gut feeling on goalies and D being harder to predict than forwards.
 
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glenwo2

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They're long shots, just like late round forwards and defensemen are long shots. Blackwood was not considered a long shot at all. He was taken with an early 2nd round pick and was considered a very strong goaltending prospect.

No one is saying to give up on them, even if you draft Askarov, you need more than two quality goaltenders on your depth chart. How many goaltenders have played for us in the last 3 years?

Akira is a long-shot?

That's not what many of us said when he was drafted.
 

beekay414

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Haha, and the last two before that were Carey Price and Tuukka Rask.
And that helps your argument, how? 4 of the last 7 winners were 4th round or later. I mean, we can go back to 2010 if you'd like?

2015 - Price (1st round)
2014 - Rask (1st round)
2013 - Bobrovsky (undrafted)
2012 - Lundqvist (7th round)
2011 - Thomas (9th round)
2010 - Miller (5th round)
 
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