Devils 2020-21 team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part IX

[NJDevs26]

I'm shocked I found it tbh...I figured I'd be going down a rabbit hole but I searched Marty in the forum and sorted results by date and found it.

 

[JimEIV]

That last quoted section about losing years of their career playing catch up was interesting.

 

[Peter Sidorkiewicz]

Bahl is a Murray injury or Kulikov injury away from making the team. Both scenarios are highly probable.

 

[glenwo2]

https://files.eliteprospects.com/layout/players/12-lovejoy,-ben-(15)-ep.jpg

sorry but Ben is a Hall of Famer, not a Hall of Shamer.

 

[Guttersniped]

Who said to rush him? You don't think that a 2nd round pick from 2018 that has had two successful post-draft seasons has any chance of showing up to camp ready for the NHL? 0%? Really?

I won't deny that the team has made dumb decisions on young players in the past, and has rushed kids that weren't ready. No one is saying to do that.

Look at how many defensemen drafted in 2017 made the NHL in 2019-20. It’s a handful. In order of games played: Heiskanen, Jokiharju, Ferraro (older birthday & drafted from the NCAA), Maker and Fleury (he played in 41 reg season games but not in the bubble playoffs).

Then the rest of the 2017 defensemen who have played in the NHL are Hague (38 games), Brannstrom (31 games), Valimaki (24 games), Aho (22 games in 2017-18), Lindstrom (16 games), Liljegren (11 games), Vaakanainen (7 games), Anderson (6 games) and Timmons (2 games).

So five guys on the big club and nine more getting some time in. And only three of those 14 were drafted after 55th spot when Bahl was taken (Fleury, Aho and Anderson) though Ferraro was taken 49th.

So while there’s definitely a chance Bahl could play some NHL games I have to agree that he has close to a zero chance of full-on making the team out of camp. I don’t say zero just to honor the fluky outside chance that he miraculously does make the team. Bahl has never played pro hockey, I’d probably prefer he played a big role on in AHL, assuming that’s a thing this season, rather than have him play over his head and eventually flounder in the NHL.

 

[BurntToast]

The Devil’s defense and goaltending are much better heading into this season. Kulikov and Murray are actually good defensively. The top 4 guys are pretty solid. It will be interesting if they bring in some PTO’s because the main issue is depth. Lastly, Bahl could be up with the Devils by default. No AHL until February, and the Devils might get to carry more guys. (If we have a season).

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

The Devil’s defense and goaltending are much better heading into this season. Kulikov and Murray are actually good defensively. The top 4 guys are pretty solid. It will be interesting if they bring in some PTO’s because the main issue is depth. Lastly, Bahl could be up with the Devils by default. No AHL until February, and the Devils might get to carry more guys. (If we have a season).

Would not mind seeing a Bahl/Smith bottom pair on the second night of a back to back.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

found this interesting

 

[SpeakingOfTheDevils]

Severson is ripe to break out, especially if Murray's skillset can maximize Severson's to the extent we think it can. If Murray can stay healthy, that's a dynamite pair.

Murray's durability is going to be a major lynchpin for this team.

 

[Darkauron]

Good old butcher

 

[Frozen Lake]

Good old butcher

Im really not a fan of Will Butcher. However Im willing to give him a chance under a new regime

Unless he proves he can be a top-4 defenseman though, id probably let him go after his current deal. Too many young defensemen coming up to have an offensive dman playing third pair. If he was a defensive specialist, thatd be different

 

[Blackjack]

Good old butcher

You miss 100% of the shots you don't take - Wayne Gretzky
...also 29% of the shots you do take - Will Butcher.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

found this interesting

Remember the ‘Severson has a muffin shot’ meme?

 

[Jack Be Quick]

Severson is ripe to break out, especially if Murray's skillset can maximize Severson's to the extent we think it can. If Murray can stay healthy, that's a dynamite pair.

Murray's durability is going to be a major lynchpin for this team.

Couldn't agree more.

If the guy has a legit partner, good goaltending, and a reasonable system, I believe he will shine.

 

[njdevils1982]

Couldn't agree more.

If the guy has a legit partner, good goaltending, and a reasonable system, I believe he will shine.

do you (or anyone) know how he was for team canada recently? and/or who he was paired with? i didnt watch ……all i know is his stat line of: 10 games, 1-5-6 pts and 19 pim with +9

thanks

 

[Bleedred]

Remember the ‘Severson has a muffin shot’ meme?

I still think he did for quite a while. He seems to have improved It drastically sometime around 2017.

After scoring 4 goals in his first 8 NHL games, he scored only 5 in his following 203 games.

He now has 28 goals in his last 219 games.

 

[NJDevs26]

Remember the ‘Severson has a muffin shot’ meme?

Accurate doesn’t equal shot power. Especially considering he had eight goals in 69 games WITH being good at picking his spots to shoot.

 

[njdevils1982]

Accurate doesn’t equal shot power. Especially considering he had eight goals in 69 games WITH being good at picking his spots to shoot.

one of the ten devils dmen to hit double digit goals ….im convinced he wouldve joined club of four that have at least done it twice if not for…..well, you know

 

[Goptor]

Our boy Adam Larsson representing the top 15.

He holds the trifecta of having a painfully slow release, lacks power, and can't hit the net.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

I still think he did for quite a while. He seems to have improved It drastically sometime around 2017.

After scoring 4 goals in his first 8 NHL games, he scored only 5 in his following 203 games.

He now has 28 goals in his last 219 games.

Looks like he’s tied for 25th in total goals for dmen since 2017. And 11th at 5 on 5 since 2017.

 

[VoidCreature]

Severson's shot was definitely weak at the beginning of his career. He's worked on it a ton, and it's paid off.

 

[MachoDiablo]

Actually Marty's comments on the team rushing guys were even more expansive than I remembered

Devils 2020-21 team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part IV



Devils 2020-21 team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part IV

Really like reading this: it's great to see both because it makes clear that there's enough depth in this organization now that rushing people doesn't seem necessary, and because I absolutely do think it's true the club's been too quick to bring, for example, first rounders up right away or what have you instead of letting them marinate a bit longer in the AHL.

As for Bahl, I do hope they take a slow and steady approach with him, but I'm also open to him playing with the big club if the new staff and whatnot feel he's ready. Even if everything goes well this year this isn't supposed to be a "let's contend for a title!" season, so even if Bahl outplays some of the other guys during the preseason that's no reason to put him on the big squad unless the staff feels sure he's ready to thrive; if he's still got things to learn, let him learn, and call him up when you feel like he's ready to crush it.

Of course, maybe the AHL season will be completely compromised this year and this'll all be a moot point, but if things are anything resembling normal then that's how I hope they go.

With those stats getting posted...I really do hope Severson takes the bull by the horns this year. You can tell he's got a lot going for him, but a 2021 season that sees Blackwood firmly establishing himself, Nico and Hughes taking clear steps forward, and Severson cementing his spot as a high pairing guy who can be relied on as the team moves towards becoming a contender would be an unmitigated success even if we end up a lotto team again.

 

[Bleedred]

Our boy Adam Larsson representing the top 15.

He holds the trifecta of having a painfully slow release, lacks power, and can't hit the net.

His shot is also nothing special, but at the same time, I don’t think he gets as good of looks as Severson ever did, probably because he isn’t as good as Severson is. Is that still sacrilege to say around here? That Damon Severson is better than Adam Larsson? Because it was ultra controversial to say this between 2016-2019 around these here parts. Every once in a while Larsson would get the primary assist on a sweet deflection goal like he was Brian Rafalski. It looked like he could do it whenever he wanted, which is what made it so bizarre that it only really happened 3-4 times a year at most.

And I’d still be fine with Larsson as a UFA next year, so I’m not knocking him. But that’s for a different discussion.

Severson’s shooting percentage over the last 3 seasons is something like 7%+, so maybe he’s a little lucky/experiencing a market correction due to hardly any goals over the 3 years before that, but it’s pretty easy to see his shot has improved an incredible amount.

I’m not sure what the average shooting percentage is for a defenseman, but I think it’s around 9% on average around the entire league. It’s safe to say that it’s lower than that for defensemen, typically because their shots are coming from 50-60 feet from the net a lot of the time.

 

[Brooklyndevil]

Watching NHL tonight, it seemed the big question is if La Freniere and Jack Hughes are allowed by their NHL teams to participate in the World Juniors. If the NHL is pushed back to say February. I hope our guy Hughes gets to go. This year’s talent is incredible. Canada alone has 21 first rounders on their start up roster. I believe it would be good for Hughes and of course team USA. I’m excited for this tournament. We get to see Holtz and our big Russian defenseman.

 

[Guttersniped]

His shot is also nothing special, but at the same time, I don’t think he gets as good of looks as Severson ever did, probably because he isn’t as good as Severson is. Is that still sacrilege to say around here? That Damon Severson is better than Adam Larsson? Because it was ultra controversial to say this between 2016-2019 around these here parts. Every once in a while Larsson would get the primary assist on a sweet deflection goal like he was Brian Rafalski. It looked like he could do it whenever he wanted, which is what made it so bizarre that it only really happened 3-4 times a year at most.

And I’d still be fine with Larsson as a UFA next year, so I’m not knocking him. But that’s for a different discussion.

Severson’s shooting percentage over the last 3 seasons is something like 7%+, so maybe he’s a little lucky/experiencing a market correction due to hardly any goals over the 3 years before that, but it’s pretty easy to see his shot has improved an incredible amount.

I’m not sure what the average shooting percentage is for a defenseman, but I think it’s around 9% on average around the entire league. It’s safe to say that it’s lower than that for defensemen, typically because their shots are coming from 50-60 feet from the net a lot of the time.

The thing about Larson is he was he really bloomed defensively in his last season in NJ but I can’t imagine why anyone would defend his offense. I actually remember Chiarelli, trying to sell people on the trade, claiming that Larsson had a lot more offensive potential and it definitely seemed wishful thinking at the time. (And it was.)

Larsson has only had one really good season in Edmonton, the one after the trade, though he was playing better defensively last season. It looks like Larsson may have attempted to do more offensively in 2018-19 because his shots and shot attempts went way up. It didn’t help his offensive production really, his shooting % disappeared and defensive got worse so there wasn’t much potential that year. He’s a defensive defenseman who’s been hampered by injuries so we ended up losing even less than I thought we did at the time of the Hall trade.

I’m a Severson defender but he’s been all over place through the years. I thought he showed a lot of improvement defensively all season long which has been his biggest issue throughout the years.

I don’t know what the average shooting % of defenseman 5v5* is but Severson’s 6.06% is 24th overall (with 800 minutes of ice time min). Butcher is 23rd with 6.16% though, they both simply didn’t get a lot of shots on net so they got 3 & 4 5v5 goals last season. That’s why Severson is 92nd in expected goals (xG/60) which is behind Subban at 88th even though PK couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn last season.

I don’t see where Severson would improve that much 5v5 offensively other than presumably more productive forwards would give him more assists. As you pointed out his goals come from high shooting % so that’s about it, he’s not a volume shooter. Subban is and he had a off year shooting 3.74% 5v5, but matched Severson’s 4 5v5 goals because of his volume of shots. If Subban isn’t just irreversibly declining he could get several more 5v5 goals just by shooting at a more career average percentage.

Hall for instance shot a career worst 4.68% 5v5 with 8 goals in 72 games after being traded to NJ and then shot a career best 10.31% 5v5 with 20 goals in 76 games to win the MVP the next season and then shot a slightly worse 8.43% 5v5 with 7 goals in 33 games before blowing out his knee and then shot a brutal 4.41% 5v5 with 3 goals in 30 games before getting his ass traded to Arizona. What a wild ride.

*Only nine defensemen have a 7%+ shooting percentage 5v5, with Maker at the top with 10.13%. (This is with a completely arbitrary 800 minute ice time min, you can change that with the filter settings.)

Shooting %
Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

xG/60
Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick