Devils 2020-21 team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part IV

[RSeen]

these timelines that this board constructs are so arbitrary though

the Devils absolutely could be a playoff team next year if they get a legit backup goalie and make a few other shrewd moves.

If your saying the Devils can, can't you say the same thing about essentially any team?

While it is a possibility, it is probably fairer to classify the Devils making it next year as a remote possibility - i.e., less than 20% chance.

 

[Ripshot 43]

Also thanks @Zajacs Bowl Cut for posting about Pronman’s rankings! I dont have the Athletic so I was unaware of the list - and its one Devils fans should be excited for during a tough and long off-season

If I had to guess we are top-3 since Nico isnt 22 yet

Towards the beginning of ZBC posting the lists I guessed 10th overall so I will stick to that.

I believe it was said that we were middle of the pack last year and we added Foote, Bahl and Kuokkanen while other teams added as well and had others of note graduate (I don’t believe we did). Anything higher would be amazing but I think top 3 may be a bit high. Now the after the draft rankings if we use all 3 and get a good player at 18 that slips, I could see us going too 5!

 

[Forge]

Towards the beginning of ZBC posting the lists I guessed 10th overall so I will stick to that.

I believe it was said that we were middle of the pack last year and we added Foote, Bahl and Kuokkanen while other teams added as well and had others of note graduate (I don’t believe we did). Anything higher would be amazing but I think top 3 may be a bit high. Now the after the draft rankings if we use all 3 and get a good player at 18 that slips, I could see us going too 5!

I think the one he did last year was a straight up prospect rankings and not necessarily a 22 and under organization ranking. We were #3 last year. Nico, for example, wasn't included in the rankings last year but he will be included in the rankings for this listing whenever Pronman gets to us.

By his own rules, we would have one graduate, I believe (someone can correct me if I'm wrong) in Jesper Bratt. But since Bratt wasn't included in the rankings last year because it wasn't a 22 and under organization ranking (again, it was strictly farm systems), it doesn't really matter.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

If your saying the Devils can, can't you say the same thing about essentially any team?

While it is a possibility, it is probably fairer to classify the Devils making it next year as a remote possibility - i.e., less than 20% chance.

I would not be surprised if any team aside from Detroit makes the playoffs next year

 

[glenwo2]

Gee....thanks for the "reminder".

bah. Knowing our luck, every Devils player that matters would've gotten COVID.

 

[Zippy316]

With Gusev and Palmieri in limbo, since they’re pending UFA’s, our depth up front is paper thin. I don’t see anyone in our pipeline that has the potential to be in our top #6. Our best asset is probably Foote but let’s see what he does in Binghamton before penciling him in our top #6.

Our best bet to land a top #6 forward will take place in October, with 3 picks in the first round. With that said, I do agree that our main weakness is our defence and despite being our best dman (that is a very sad statement right there), he’s not untouchable. Just like Adam Larsson, if there’s a deal that can be made where we get the better player, you do it and worry about the rest later.

Again, there’s going to be a great opportunity to "replace" someone like Severson in the next year because of cap strapped teams and the expansion draft.

That’s the nice part about our timeline. Palmieri or Gusev are legitimate top six options for next year. Boqvist, Kuokkanen, Foote, and #7 all should have a legitimate opportunity to be top six wingers, not next year but within the next few you would hope they can fill in there. There’s a ton of forward prospects so odds are one of those shatters expectations and can be a top nine , maybe six, forward eventually.

Instead of going after a Laine, I would rather go after a Killorn/Bozak. Let them play alongside Hughes and bring out the best in his game. I’d love to go into next year with something like:

Boqvist/Kuokkanen/#7 - Hischier - Palmieri
Bratt - Zacha - Gusev
Killorn/Bozak - Hughes - Anderson/Merkley
Wood - Zajac - Anderson/Merkley

I personally think a forward group like that and then one bolstered a bit by a veteran defense defender or a young defender like Dunn could do some damage next year. I personally would try to swap Butcher for a defensive defender like McCabe or Ryan Murray but something like:

Dillon - Severson
Smith - Subban
Dunn - Butcher

I see this as a nice balance between solidifying the defense and offense and also allowing the kids an opportunity to be in “easier” roles. This is likely a bubble team that goes as far as the kids develop next season.

 

[bobilly45]

Gee....thanks for the "reminder".

bah. Knowing our luck, every Devils player that matters would've gotten COVID.

Thats really no big deal. Willing to bet all (like mlb teams that have got it) fully recover if they got it.

 

[NJDevs26]

Without turning this into a long discussion on a topic that can be discussed elsewhere, tell that to Eduardo Rodriguez or Freddie Freeman who felt like he was on death's door with a 104 fever. And people don't know the long-term effects of this yet because there has been no long-term.

 

[MachoDiablo]

I think the issue with projecting the team's timeline/win curve isn't so much that there needs to be a set number of years attached to it; it's more that you want to see the young core of this team prove that it's capable of playing at a successful level before you go too crazy giving up prospects/draft picks/young cost-controlled players/cap space to "get over the hump".

That doesn't mean the team shouldn't make "no-brainer" trades or whatever to acquire good players, or shouldn't spend some money for stopgap defensemen so this club can actually ice a semi-competent blue line while letting the young players grow, but there are a lot of questions you really want answered before making a big move: is Blackwood able to keep up his level of play over an entire season? Will Hughes begin realizing his true potential? Which of the young guys in the system might come up and make an impact?

I feel pretty confident that we'll get positive answers on a number of questions, but I'd also want to actually get some of the answers before doing anything huge that might end up inadvertently slowing down the rebuild. I'm also of the mind that this club can be a bubble team next season with improved coaching and better overall goaltending numbers, both of which couldn't have been much worse during the first half this year, but I don't want to take anything for granted, as this team is only going as far as Nico/Jack/Bratt/MBW/etc. are going to take them, so let's see for sure what we have.

 

[Guttersniped]

I think the one he did last year was a straight up prospect rankings and not necessarily a 22 and under organization ranking. We were #3 last year. Nico, for example, wasn't included in the rankings last year but he will be included in the rankings for this listing whenever Pronman gets to us.

By his own rules, we would have one graduate, I believe (someone can correct me if I'm wrong) in Jesper Bratt. But since Bratt wasn't included in the rankings last year because it wasn't a 22 and under organization ranking (again, it was strictly farm systems), it doesn't really matter.

It’s any roster player not older than 22 as of September 15 2020 which means the cut off is the 2016 draft class so Bratt’s included.

Last year we were 3rd in Pronman’s farm rankings and 12th in his 23-and-under ranking with the latter including players from the 2014 draft and later. These rules are why people should look at the pool of players discussed rather than rankings because, for an extreme example, Edmonton came in 1st when the 2014 & 15 draft counted in the 23-and-up and came in 26th in the list with 2016 cut-off. (To make it more confusing, Pronman plans on doing a 23-and-up and the Oilers will shoot up with McDavid back but aren’t guaranteed a win now that old man Draisaitl is 24.)

We came in 5th in Dobber’s organizational rankings which roster players 21 and under but there are some odd discrepancies (they list Bratt, I guess because he was 21 in June but Keller isn’t listed for Arizona and he’s a day younger so maybe Bratt was a mistake *apologies for random OCD fixations but it bugged me*) Toronto falls pretty far without Matthews (who has a September bday) here, they’re 23rd while they are in Pronman’s in unrevealed top 8, to show how a star effects the ranking. The Kings who are 13th in Pronman are 3rd for Dobber so there’s differences of opinion as well.
Organizational Rankings

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

I think the issue with projecting the team's timeline/win curve isn't so much that there needs to be a set number of years attached to it; it's more that you want to see the young core of this team prove that it's capable of playing at a successful level before you go too crazy giving up prospects/draft picks/young cost-controlled players/cap space to "get over the hump".

That doesn't mean the team shouldn't make "no-brainer" trades or whatever to acquire good players, or shouldn't spend some money for stopgap defensemen so this club can actually ice a semi-competent blue line while letting the young players grow, but there are a lot of questions you really want answered before making a big move: is Blackwood able to keep up his level of play over an entire season? Will Hughes begin realizing his true potential? Which of the young guys in the system might come up and make an impact?

I feel pretty confident that we'll get positive answers on a number of questions, but I'd also want to actually get some of the answers before doing anything huge that might end up inadvertently slowing down the rebuild. I'm also of the mind that this club can be a bubble team next season with improved coaching and better overall goaltending numbers, both of which couldn't have been much worse during the first half this year, but I don't want to take anything for granted, as this team is only going as far as Nico/Jack/Bratt/MBW/etc. are going to take them, so let's see for sure what we have.

Great post. 1,000 likes if I could.

 

[Forge]

It’s any roster player not older than 22 as of September 15 2020 which means the cut off is the 2016 draft class so Bratt’s included.

Ahh, okay, I assumed that 22 years & 50 days would be considered "over 22".

Last year we were 3rd in Pronman’s farm rankings and 12th in his 23-and-under ranking with the latter including players from the 2014 draft and later. These rules are why people should look at the pool of players discussed rather than rankings because, for an extreme example, Edmonton came in 1st when the 2014 & 15 draft counted in the 23-and-up and came in 26th in the list with 2016 cut-off. (To make it more confusing, Pronman plans on doing a 23-and-up and the Oilers will shoot up with McDavid back but aren’t guaranteed a win now that old man Draisaitl is 24.)

So I googled this because for some weird reason, on his 2020 rankings of under 22, the "last year rank" link in the current organizational rankings actually seems to link to his farm system rankings from last year, not the 23 and under organizational rankings from last year. Weird choice. I just assumed that was his rankings in 2019 and he didn't do an "organizational ranking"; didn't see the 23 and under until you just told me it existed.

 

[glenwo2]

Happy B-Day, Jacques!!

 

[Spoiled Bratt]

I think the issue with projecting the team's timeline/win curve isn't so much that there needs to be a set number of years attached to it; it's more that you want to see the young core of this team prove that it's capable of playing at a successful level before you go too crazy giving up prospects/draft picks/young cost-controlled players/cap space to "get over the hump".

That doesn't mean the team shouldn't make "no-brainer" trades or whatever to acquire good players, or shouldn't spend some money for stopgap defensemen so this club can actually ice a semi-competent blue line while letting the young players grow, but there are a lot of questions you really want answered before making a big move: is Blackwood able to keep up his level of play over an entire season? Will Hughes begin realizing his true potential? Which of the young guys in the system might come up and make an impact?

I feel pretty confident that we'll get positive answers on a number of questions, but I'd also want to actually get some of the answers before doing anything huge that might end up inadvertently slowing down the rebuild. I'm also of the mind that this club can be a bubble team next season with improved coaching and better overall goaltending numbers, both of which couldn't have been much worse during the first half this year, but I don't want to take anything for granted, as this team is only going as far as Nico/Jack/Bratt/MBW/etc. are going to take them, so let's see for sure what we have.

Taking our time to see what our young guys are made of is nice and all but if we have someone like Boqvist in our top #6 and we don’t add a dman to the mediocre cast we have right now, there’s nothing much Hischier, Hughes, Bratt and Blackwood can do. We’re asking our kids to lead this team to the playoffs with little to no support. For me, it’s nothing short of a recipe for disaster.

We need to surround our young kids with talent, not ask for Boqvist to play in a role he has no business being in, just to see if he can sink or swim. This isn’t a training camp where we can just waste a season to see where our kids are at. If that’s the attitude we have, then they should be playing in Binghamton instead of New Jersey.

We have a two year window that can be extremely beneficial for our team and taking advantage of cap strapped teams and the expansion draft will give us the help we need to add talent to this roster.

 

[MikeyFlynn]

I think the Devils should do everything possible to acquire Laine if he is actually on the table. When a 22 year old that has 138 career goals is on the market - you HAVE to kick tires.

Severson + Boqvist + 18th overall + 20th overall.

Would be hard for a team to beat an offer like that. Only team I think could potentially beat that offer would be Carolina.

 

[Forge]

I think the Devils should do everything possible to acquire Laine if he is actually on the table. When a 22 year old that has 138 career goals is on the market - you HAVE to kick tires.

Severson + Boqvist + 18th overall + 20th overall.

Would be hard for a team to beat an offer like that. Only team I think could potentially beat that offer would be Carolina.

If we learned only one thing from Taylor Hall, let it be that we are not a winger away

 

[MikeyFlynn]

If we learned only one thing from Taylor Hall, let it be that we are not a winger away

Did I say we were?

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I think the Devils should do everything possible to acquire Laine if he is actually on the table. When a 22 year old that has 138 career goals is on the market - you HAVE to kick tires.

Severson + Boqvist + 18th overall + 20th overall.

Would be hard for a team to beat an offer like that. Only team I think could potentially beat that offer would be Carolina.

Yikes

No way

 

[TrufleShufle]

Did I say we were?

Well if we made that deal you would hope we would be, not sure how we are addressing any other problems giving up that much.

 

[MikeyFlynn]

Losing Severson would be the huge loss, but Severson is way more easily replaced than a winger like Laine would ever be. Laine has potential to be a top 10 goal scorer in the history of the NHL. his WORST season in goal scoring was Palmieri's best - and we consider Palmieri by far our best goal scorer. Think about that. And Laine is only 22.

You could kick tires on Barrie this summer to fill the void left by Severson.

 

[Spoiled Bratt]

If we learned only one thing from Taylor Hall, let it be that we are not a winger away

When making a trade like that, it doesn’t necessarily mean we automatically need to go from bottom feeder to cup contender. It also doesn’t mean that we can’t make another trade that same summer to fix other areas of weakness.

It’s a question of building towards the future with a sniper that is almost as young as Nico Hischier.

I’ve said it numerous times over the past weeks... we have to start surrounding our gems with proven talent. Nico Hischier or Jack Hughes won’t be taking the next step we’re looking for them to take if they’re playing alongside Boqvist or any of our unproven kids that should be in Binghamton. Yes, Laine is a pipe dream but he’s exactly what I’m talking about, a proven player that can elevate the game of our two young centers. We’re asking both guys to carry the load on a mediocre team with no help whatsoever. It was the first time I saw Nico play with little to no fire and getting beat up shift after shift can start playing with your head. The fact that he had our best winger on his line didn’t change the fact that we couldn’t generate anything and that’s pretty telling imo.

Getting picks in the 1st round is nice and all but it doesn’t guarantee you anything. Boston had 3 straight picks in 2015 and took Zboril, DeBrusk and Senyshyn with the 13th, 14th and 15th overall pick.

The draft is a good place to stock up on young talent but it’s not a perfect science. If we’re going to wait for our picks to pan out, we might be waisting Hischier and Hughes best years. I’m not saying to trade every pick we have but if we can swing a deal and it involves the 18th, the 20th or both picks, so be it... we’re still leaving the draft with a bluechip prospect that we’ll take 7th overall.

 

[TrufleShufle]

Losing Severson would be the huge loss, but Severson is way more easily replaced than a winger like Laine would ever be. Laine has potential to be a top 10 goal scorer in the history of the NHL. his WORST season in goal scoring was Palmieri's best - and we consider Palmieri by far our best goal scorer. Think about that. And Laine is only 22.

You could kick tires on Barrie this summer to fill the void left by Severson.

Problem is, there already is a void even while we have Severson.

 

[Forge]

Did I say we were?

By making that kind of move, it kind of suggests that you are.

 

[Forge]

When making a trade like that, it doesn’t necessarily mean we automatically need to go from bottom feeder to cup contender. It also doesn’t mean that we can’t make another trade that same summer to fix other areas of weakness.

It’s a question of building towards the future with a sniper that is almost as young as Nico Hischier.

I’ve said it numerous times over the past weeks... we have to start surrounding our gems with proven talent. Nico Hischier or Jack Hughes won’t be taking the next step we’re looking for them to take if they’re playing alongside Boqvist or any of our unproven kids that should be in Binghamton. Yes, Laine is a pipe dream but he’s exactly what I’m talking about, a proven player that can elevate the game of our two young centers. We’re asking both guys to carry the load on a mediocre team with no help whatsoever. It was the first time I saw Nico play with little to no fire and getting beat up shift after shift can start playing with your head. The fact that he had our best winger on his line didn’t change the fact that we couldn’t generate anything and that’s pretty telling imo.

Getting picks in the 1st round is nice and all but it doesn’t guarantee you anything. Boston had 3 straight picks in 2015 and took Zboril, DeBrusk and Senyshyn with the 13th, 14th and 15th overall pick.

The draft is a good place to stock up on young talent but it’s not a perfect science. If we’re going to wait for our picks to pan out, we might be waisting Hischier and Hughes best years.

I've advocated a ton for making trades and acquiring talent on this board. You're kind of wasting these words on me. The Laine thing is just not a deal we should be making given how much we would have to send there in a quantity for quality approach.

 

[MadDevil]

Happy B-Day, Jacques!!

It's from his time with the Wild, but it's still classic Lemaire.