Devils 2018-19 team discussion (news and notes) XII

[AfroThunder396]

Do this in a heartbeat. Butcher scored +40 as a rookie, I don't think people appreciate how good he is.

 

[BenedictGomez]

And yeah, weirdly he went to a high-tax city.

I believe the answer to this is going to be that Clarkson's salary was no longer considered normal income under Canadian taxation policy, but rather medical insurance payments guaranteed by his contract, as it came out that his contract was insured. If so, in other words taxation still is/was very much a factor, it's just that none of us understood this variance in Canadian tax policy. In America, income would be income.

 

[manilaNJ]

Has anybody gone to one of these prospect tournaments?
I'm probably going to be passing through the Buffalo area around that time and am wondering it's a worthy pit stop.

 

[GameSeven]

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

Do this in a heartbeat. Butcher scored +40 as a rookie, I don't think people appreciate how good he is.

Right now i think butcher is the 4th or 5th best d man on the team. I think Ty Smith will be better than him soon too. I think Severson served better as the PP QB and Subban/Ty Smith moving forward are better than him. As a bottom pair D man who can move the puck and fill in on the PP when needed I would love Will Butcher. He unfortunately will demand that type of contract mentioned long term and I dont think its viable to pay him that much depending on what they do with Vats.

 

[AfroThunder396]

Right now i think butcher is the 4th or 5th best d man on the team. I think Ty Smith will be better than him soon too. I think Severson served better as the PP QB and Subban/Ty Smith moving forward are better than him. As a bottom pair D man who can move the puck and fill in on the PP when needed I would love Will Butcher. He unfortunately will demand that type of contract mentioned long term and I dont think its viable to pay him that much depending on what they do with Vats.

Even though I'd argue the only two d-men clearly better than him right now are Subban and Severson, I'll go ahead and agree with this statement. That's a good thing, though, when your 4th best defenseman is getting 40 points. With Greene being off the books next season, Butcher is going to be the longest tenured LHD on the roster in '21 and slot higher up in the lineup (not to mention clearing 6M in salary).

With Subban inevitably taking more PP time I think Butcher will get a bigger role at ES than he has in years past. And I think he's going to do very well in that role.

His possession metrics are very, very similar to Vatanen's. If it came down to picking one or the other I'd rather have Butcher. With the way the market is going I'm fully expecting Vatanen to get 6M or higher in UFA. Butcher at 4.5M long term is a steal compared to that.

Remember, this contract is not about his performance next year, it's about the next six years. Perhaps he's overpaid for what he brings to the table in Year 1, but we still have an outrageous amount of cap space. It's not going to hurt us. And we still have a ton of cap flexibility coming up in the next few years with expiring contracts.

 

[Oneiro]

Lose Vats next year, keep Butcher.

Works for me. Works for the timeline.

Also, we have a very incentive-laden roster this year. Simmonds, Vatanen, Hall, Hischier, Bratt, etc. Could be a special season.

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

Even though I'd argue the only two d-men clearly better than him right now are Subban and Severson, I'll go ahead and agree with this statement. That's a good thing, though, when your 4th best defenseman is getting 40 points. With Greene being off the books next season, Butcher is going to be the longest tenured LHD on the roster in '21 and slot higher up in the lineup (not to mention clearing 6M in salary).

With Subban inevitably taking more PP time I think Butcher will get a bigger role at ES than he has in years past. And I think he's going to do very well in that role.

His possession metrics are very, very similar to Vatanen's. If it came down to picking one or the other I'd rather have Butcher. With the way the market is going I'm fully expecting Vatanen to get 6M or higher in UFA. Butcher at 4.5M long term is a steal compared to that.

Remember, this contract is not about his performance next year, it's about the next six years. Perhaps he's overpaid for what he brings to the table in Year 1, but we still have an outrageous amount of cap space. It's not going to hurt us. And we still have a ton of cap flexibility coming up in the next few years with expiring contracts.

The thing is I think Butchers best year is behind him, he was okay last year when playing in a bigger role. But the top PP role will never be his again with Subban, Smith and even Severson on the team. 23 of his 44 points in year 1 were on the PP and he split the year as PP1/PP2 and had 14 points. I think ultimately moving forward he wont be a big factor on the PP and that's likely his best strength. I dont think he has the talent elsewhere in his game, largely in the d zone, to be worth that contract. If they move Vatanen then i can accept a long term contract for butcher but id rather see him play on a bridge in that 2nd LHD role who isnt on PP1. Im just not convinced enough in him as a player to go 5/6 years at a solid cap hit.

 

[Blackjack]

I think ultimately moving forward he wont be a big factor on the PP and that's likely his best strength. I dont think he has the talent elsewhere in his game, largely in the d zone, to be worth that contract.

I honestly don't understand the idea that Butcher is weak 5v5. He looks effective to me, and the advanced stats say he's one of our best 5v5 defenders. Yes, he's small, and no, his foot speed isn't great, but he puts himself in good position, he generates good zone exits, and he defends well. If he was a one dimensional power play quarterback, I don't think there's any way the team would entertain a deal for $4-$6 million per year.

 

[Nocashstyle]

The thing is I think Butchers best year is behind him, he was okay last year when playing in a bigger role. But the top PP role will never be his again with Subban, Smith and even Severson on the team. 23 of his 44 points in year 1 were on the PP and he split the year as PP1/PP2 and had 14 points. I think ultimately moving forward he wont be a big factor on the PP and that's likely his best strength. I dont think he has the talent elsewhere in his game, largely in the d zone, to be worth that contract. If they move Vatanen then i can accept a long term contract for butcher but id rather see him play on a bridge in that 2nd LHD role who isnt on PP1. Im just not convinced enough in him as a player to go 5/6 years at a solid cap hit.

I agree and disagree at the same time. Can definitely see Butcher being passed on the depth chart for PP1 unit, especially with Subban here for the next three years. I haven’t seen Smith play enough to comment on his ability to QB a PP. Severson hasn’t shown anything incredibly special there either IMO. I think Butcher should get the nod over Sevs every time. Butcher was a sight to see his rookie year...and unless something goes terribly wrong, I think Butcher slots comfortably into PP2. Subban has to be the only unanimous choice ahead of Butcher here at this point in time. An injury or stagnant PP can shake that up too.

 

[Nubmer6]

I honestly don't understand the idea that Butcher is weak 5v5. He looks effective to me, and the advanced stats say he's one of our best 5v5 defenders. Yes, he's small, and no, his foot speed isn't great, but he puts himself in good position, he generates good zone exits, and he defends well. If he was a one dimensional power play quarterback, I don't think there's any way the team would entertain a deal for $4-$6 million per year.

Greene's small and slow too. You can make up a lot with smarts. Not saying that Butcher will achieve Greene status, but if someone like Greene can be a stable 1st pairing defenseman, someone like Butcher can certainly make it as a solid 2nd pairing guy.

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

I agree and disagree at the same time. Can definitely see Butcher being passed on the depth chart for PP1 unit, especially with Subban here for the next three years. I haven’t seen Smith play enough to comment on his ability to QB a PP. Severson hasn’t shown anything incredibly special there either IMO. I think Butcher should get the nod over Sevs every time. Butcher was a sight to see his rookie year...and unless something goes terribly wrong, I think Butcher slots comfortably into PP2. Subban has to be the only unanimous choice ahead of Butcher here at this point in time. An injury or stagnant PP can shake that up too.

Severson played PP1 over him for the second half of the year, i think butchers lack of speed affects the breakout as hes not an option to enter the zone. I also think his lack of shot (complete muffin) made it easier to defend our PP. Ty Smith is very good at manning a PP as the QB and I think his overall game could be better than butcher this year. I just think the bridge is the best case scenario for us, butcher's best case is likely a long term deal with a boost on AAV that assumes he develops into a solid send pair guy.

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

I honestly don't understand the idea that Butcher is weak 5v5. He looks effective to me, and the advanced stats say he's one of our best 5v5 defenders. Yes, he's small, and no, his foot speed isn't great, but he puts himself in good position, he generates good zone exits, and he defends well. If he was a one dimensional power play quarterback, I don't think there's any way the team would entertain a deal for $4-$6 million per year.

In my opinion i dont think he defends well and he was out of position constantly last year. Most of our D men struggled with that last year and that will happen when the team is bad and theres more opportunity to be caught. I think he can be a fine d man because his passing ability is very good, but he wont limit zone entries, he wont defend well in front of the net, he wont defend well in the corners and his overall D IQ isnt as strong as someone like Andy Greene who has made up for his lack of physical tools that way. Some of that stuff can change and i would like it to change, but Id rather see 2 years of him develop before paying him for what he did in 2017-2018 over a long term deal.

 

[kidkosher]

What does Greene’s next contract look like?

I see a couple more years like 2 or 3 @ 2.5 to 3 per

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

What does Greene’s next contract look like?

retirement

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

What does Greene’s next contract look like?

hopefully 1 x 2-2.5

 

[Blackjack]

What does Greene’s next contract look like?

Matt Loughlin's

 

[kidkosher]

What does Greene’s next contract look like?

I see a couple more years like 2 or 3 @ 2.5 to 3 per

Or rather one year. Didn’t realize he was gonna be 37 at the start of the season.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

Greene better not be resigned.

 

[SYWTom]

"Nothing goes over my head! My relflexes are too fast, I would catch it."

Don’t worry, I appreciate your reference Drax!

 

[Forge]

Do this in a heartbeat. Butcher scored +40 as a rookie, I don't think people appreciate how good he is.

I don't love 6 / 7 / 8 year deals in general, but they are a part of the game, obviously, so that part is what it is. The AAV doesn't shock me at all. I mentioned on another forum that his starting point on any long term deal has to be Severson's contract, if not higher. If it's not, his agent is doing a really bad job.

Overall I'm sort of just okay with Butcher. I don't love him, certainly don't dislike him. His underlying numbers are good, and even last year they were just fine for a team that was a complete clustermess. Speaking from the eye test, I don't see anything special about him, but this is around where I think the market would be for him, and it's not like the eye test is a great way to evaluate anyone anyway. He's never a first pairing defenseman in my opinion, but if he can slot into your second pairing, I think it's largely fine. Stralman just signed 3x4.5, and he's not a first pairing guy any more either. It's just where the price point is.

 

[devilsblood]

Greene's small and slow too. You can make up a lot with smarts. Not saying that Butcher will achieve Greene status, but if someone like Greene can be a stable 1st pairing defenseman, someone like Butcher can certainly make it as a solid 2nd pairing guy.

Greene at 36 is slow(though not as slow as Butcher) but at 28 he was not slow at all. Greene was a very good skater actually.

 

[Forge]

What does Greene’s next contract look like?

I see a couple more years like 2 or 3 @ 2.5 to 3 per

There will always be a soft spot in my heart for Greene...just like there was for Rafalski, and Paul Martin, etc. But there's a time where it's just time to move on. That time is after this season for the Devils and Greene.

 

[devilsblood]

While I'd prefer it that Smith Butcher Mueller prove themselves capable of holding down the left side of the defense in time for the 20-21 season, if they can not, I'd be OK with Greene signing a deal to stay in NJ for another year.

 

[MartyOwns]

While I'd prefer it that Smith Butcher Mueller prove themselves capable of holding down the left side of the defense in time for the 20-21 season, if they can not, I'd be OK with Greene signing a deal to stay in NJ for another year.

agreed. we shouldn’t be getting ahead of ourselves and ruling out bringing him back for another year. if smith looks like the real deal, then yeah we can move on. i really hope that happens