Devils 2017-18 team discussion (player news and notes) - season begins!

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BenedictGomez

Corsi is GROSSLY overrated
Oct 11, 2007
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But 5v5 is what people use. Why do they use it?

Probably because as I've been suggesting, they dont really know as much about statistics as they think they know. Especially if we're talking about the Team metric.

But if you want to use the stat that is not as good, and then ***** about it, then OK.

Rather than just insulting, please do explain and answer my question.

Q) If the base hypothesis supporting Corsi is truly valid, why would that base positive possession concept no longer still apply when I'm either shorthanded or on the powerplay?

This I REALLY want to hear. :popcorn:
 

Zippy316

aka Zippo
Aug 17, 2012
19,489
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New Jersey
Rather than just insulting, please do explain and answer my question.

Q) If the base hypothesis supporting Corsi is truly valid, why would that base positive possession concept no longer still apply when I'm either shorthanded or on the powerplay?

This I REALLY want to hear.:popcorn:

Would your CF% not be ridiculously warped one way or another from PP or PK?

How is it fair to use a situation where a team is 5-on-4 as relative equal to a situation where a team is 4-on-5 or 5-on-5?

This I REALLY want to hear.:popcorn:
 

devilsblood

Registered User
Mar 10, 2010
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It always gets cited as being bad, and it's factored in as a negative in advanced stats. How many 'Volchenkovs' really exist in the NHL nowadays? I mean Santini and Larsson are sort of that kind of player but they can move a little better at least. You also have to be smart to block shots, especially if you're slow as **** and can't move laterally like Volch. But the slow guys are pretty much getting phased off most D's in the league anyway.
Maybe it's better to ignore the fact that it's blocked, and just think of it as a shot towards the net.

Remember corsi is bundling, goals, shots into the goalies chest, shots off the pipe, soft shots a mile all into one group. It's not discerning good shots from bad shots, it's just shots.

Perhaps the block should be viewed outside of the corsi argument? But still, we lived through volch, we know he wasn't a very effective d-man despite being a good shot blocker.
 

BenedictGomez

Corsi is GROSSLY overrated
Oct 11, 2007
40,436
7,745
PRNJ
Why are you continuing to roll out the small sample examples?

1) It's the only data we have this year.
2) I would suggest that ~25% of an entire season played by 31 teams isn't really all that "small" of a sample.
3) To show how spectacularly craptastic Corsi is doing this year as a predictive model. Honestly? With no hyperbole, it almost couldn't get any worse even if it were randomized.*



* But to make it even "worse", now would be a good time for me to add that AZ is on track for the worst record in the 100 year history of the NHL, an they have an NHL average Corsi.
 

NjDevsRR

Anything Can Happen In Jersey
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Apr 24, 2012
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Belmar
If someone is basing a teams success/failure using corsi then damn well better only usit it for 5 on 5 play because that is where you separate the good teams from the bad teams in terms of quality of play. Special teams are a niche part of the game.
 
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BenedictGomez

Corsi is GROSSLY overrated
Oct 11, 2007
40,436
7,745
PRNJ
How is it fair to use a situation where a team is 5-on-4 as relative equal to a situation where a team is 4-on-5 or 5-on-5?

This I REALLY want to hear.
:popcorn:

I think the answer is, you're not really good with math and data and statistics, because, respectfully, what I'm asking is a very simple concept to grasp.
 

Zippy316

aka Zippo
Aug 17, 2012
19,489
4,476
New Jersey
I think the answer is, you're not really good with math and data and statistics, because, respectfully, what I'm asking is a very simple concept to grasp.

Instead of answering the question, thinking critically outside your opinion, and actually having a conversation, you choose to deflect and insult.

I really don't know what else to say.
 

Devils731

Registered User
Jun 23, 2008
12,202
16,120
.

Q) If the base hypothesis supporting Corsi is truly valid, why would that base positive possession concept no longer still apply when I'm either shorthanded or on the powerplay?

This I REALLY want to hear. :popcorn:

PP and PK % vary a lot from game to game and even from year to year because a much smaller portion of the game is played on them, for 1 reason. These end up having a large effect on individual games but are hard to predict on a longer term basis.

Second reason, if you believe Corsi is a good predictor you believe that, in general, teams that have better Corsi 5 on 5 are more likely to win games in the long run.

People who use Corsi for predictive value use it because they believe it’s a good measure for the most common part of the game, not for man power differences. We see this is generally true because the standings generally follow Corsi at 5 on 5.

Corsi is not perfect and needs to be used in context(like all stats) but it’s a decent indicator of strong play.
 

BenedictGomez

Corsi is GROSSLY overrated
Oct 11, 2007
40,436
7,745
PRNJ
If someone is basing a teams success/failure using corsi then damn well better only usit it for 5 on 5 play because that is where you separate the good teams from the bad teams in terms of quality of play. Special teams are a niche part of the game.

Anyone making this "5v5 only" argument, really doesn't grasp the Corsi concept to begin with, which is an important part of my argument. Namely, that most people dont really understand it.
 

BenedictGomez

Corsi is GROSSLY overrated
Oct 11, 2007
40,436
7,745
PRNJ
Instead of answering the question, thinking critically outside your opinion, and actually having a conversation, you choose to deflect and insult.

I really don't know what else to say.

Actually, I already did answer that question (several times already,,,,,,like, probably 4 or 5 times actually).

You, however, didn't answer mine, even though I laid out the question in a very simple, very specific fashion.
 

BenedictGomez

Corsi is GROSSLY overrated
Oct 11, 2007
40,436
7,745
PRNJ
PP and PK % vary a lot from game to game and even from year to year because a much smaller portion of the game is played on them, for 1 reason. These end up having a large effect on individual games but are hard to predict on a longer term basis.

That's correct, and yet every team must play them, and to eliminate them my overall data set will be much less robust, which in statistics is NEVER a good thing.

Not to mention, as I've repeatedly said, if the core hypothesis behind positive Corsi does in fact work, the relative concept will still apply if you're on the PP or Shorthanded. It's not complicated.
 

devilsblood

Registered User
Mar 10, 2010
29,455
11,711
Probably because as I've been suggesting, they dont really know as much about statistics as they think they know. Especially if we're talking about the Team metric.



Rather than just insulting, please do explain and answer my question.

Q) If the base hypothesis supporting Corsi is truly valid, why would that base positive possession concept no longer still apply when I'm either shorthanded or on the powerplay?

This I REALLY want to hear. :popcorn:
I'm not sure why. It's a good question. But me not knowing does not change the fact that one is a very good predictor while one is not. You want to run with the one that is not, and say "look it doesn't work". While everyone else takes the one that does work and say, "yes it does".

Similar to me not knowing the chemistry behind alcohols effect on the body, but I do know that I'd rather drink a beer after work then soda.
 

Zippy316

aka Zippo
Aug 17, 2012
19,489
4,476
New Jersey
I guess my final stance is I don’t believe our currently poor team corsi means the bottom is going to fall out and we will be fishing for Dahlin.

After you said that, I went and looked and it seems to be that teams are moving away from CF%.

Teams like Ottawa, Rangers, and Penguins are playing an anti-CF% system essentially. Counter attacking and trying to expose teams with speed and being opportunistic off the rush with more open ice.

Last year there were a lot more teams with low CF% and high PDO and teams with high CF% and low PDO. Devils might be building for the former, but even then, they would be much better off getting up the ice more 5-on-5.
 
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devilsblood

Registered User
Mar 10, 2010
29,455
11,711
1) It's the only data we have this year.
2) I would suggest that ~25% of an entire season played by 31 teams isn't really all that "small" of a sample.
3) To show how spectacularly craptastic Corsi is doing this year as a predictive model. Honestly? With no hyperbole, it almost couldn't get any worse even if it were randomized.*



* But to make it even "worse", now would be a good time for me to add that AZ is on track for the worst record in the 100 year history of the NHL, an they have an NHL average Corsi.

And Gibbons is on pace for 35+ goals.
 

BenedictGomez

Corsi is GROSSLY overrated
Oct 11, 2007
40,436
7,745
PRNJ
I'm not sure why. It's a good question. But me not knowing does not change the fact that one is a very good predictor while one is not.

So you believe 5v5 Corsi is a good predictor of team success.

But you believe 5v5 Corsi + PP Corsi + SH Corsi is NOT a good predictor of team success.

This fails a basic logic test.

The **** either works, or it doesn't work.
 
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