Prospect Info: Detroit Red Wings Prospect Rankings (#1)

[Frk It]

It's easily Mantha. The numbers don't lie, 40+ goal scorers in juniors almost always pan out as solid NHL players. If we were to trade any of our prospects, he would have the most value out of anyone else.

Two years ago Jarnkrok was our most valuable prospect to trade, and look at how many guys have passed him now...

Also Frk had 35 g in 56 gp last year. Hasn't been able to transition so far.

Manthas a stud.... I just don't think he's earned #1 YET. I mean I still think he's top 3, but can't really justify putting him over Jurco at this moment in time IMO.

The last game Jurco played he was in the top 9 for Detroit, and scored a goal against the best competition in the world.

The last game Mantha played was a 12-3 blowout against 18 year old kids.

It's not even comparable if you ask me....

 

[SlavaKozlov]

I voted Jurco. IMO, Jurco, Mantha and Mrazek are the top 3, and I can understand ranking them in any order. I like that Jurco has been successful at the AHL level and isn't looking out of place at the NHL level now, and even got a selection to the Czech national team for the Olympics, though making the Czech team isn't like making the more stacked Canada, US, Sweden, Russian, etc... teams, it is still a big accomplishment. Not a knock on Mantha for playing in a lesser league, but I like what I have seen from Jurco at the AHL/NHL level.

I love that Jurco is so willing to throw the body around. Makes him much more valuable in my opinion.

This is one thing that has impressed me with Jurco. He is a pretty big player with a ton of skill and projects as a scoring line wing, but he is showing good physicality as a rookie playing in his first NHL action. I would like to see him producing more in the NHL, but he is a rookie and is still adjusting, it is good that he can handle the physical stuff and give it back and look like a NHL player at such a young age.

The best thing about arguing over 3-5 guys as top prospects that have legitimate cases for being #1 is that they are all in this organization and we don't really need to chose between them. Whether or not one person thinks Mantha is #1 or #7, he is in the organization with several other solid NHL caliber prospects. Seems like a bright future for Wings fans!

 

[jaster]

So you consider Teemu Pulkkinen, Mitch Callahan, and Landon Ferraro as better prospects than Mantha because they've made the transition to pro? Are Richard Panik and JT Brown better prospects than Jonathan Drouin?

Of course not. I don't think it should be all or nothing in terms of total upside vs where they're at in their development. It's a balance, which is where the subjectivity of rankings comes into play. But to rank players based strictly on total upside, or strictly on how close they are to the NHL, is, quite frankly, pointless.

Transitioning to pro is part of the development process for any young player. Just doing so does not give a player a higher projection over another player who has yet to make the transition.

I assert that it does. You're talking about that transition as if it were automatic. But it's not. In reality, it's a hurdle that many prospects fail to get over. So when they do get over it, they are that much closer to being an NHLer, and therefor they are more valuable. And, in the end, that's what we're ranking, right? The value of a prospect? Even though we may all have different criteria.

 

[Frk It]

1)But to rank players based strictly on total upside, or strictly on how close they are to the NHL, is, quite frankly, pointless.

2)You're talking about that transition as if it were automatic. But it's not. In reality, it's a hurdle that many prospects fail to get over.

Two great points.

These things should be kept in mind.

 

[Debrincat93]

Have to say Jurco based on his smooth transition to the majors...

You gotta add Pulks.. kid needs a lot more love

 

[drw02]

Two years ago Jarnkrok was our most valuable prospect to trade, and look at how many guys have passed him now...

Also Frk had 35 g in 56 gp last year. Hasn't been able to transition so far.

Manthas a stud.... I just don't think he's earned #1 YET. I mean I still think he's top 3, but can't really justify putting him over Jurco at this moment in time IMO.

The last game Jurco played he was in the top 9 for Detroit, and scored a goal against the best competition in the world.

The last game Mantha played was a 12-3 blowout against 18 year old kids.

It's not even comparable if you ask me....

You have to put everything into context. Frk played on a line with Mackinnon and Drouin. His stats were severely inflated. Mantha is far and away the best player on his team and producing at a ridiculous rate. Even Jurco played on a stacked team and surely benefited from the other great talents around him.

It's not like Jarnkrok isn't still deserving of #1 votes. The Wings system is pretty stacked, Jarnkrok isn't dropping because he's playing bad, it's because other prospects have just been playing so well that they've jumped him. People put too much focus just on stats. If you watch Jarnkrok play you see a future top 6 NHL'er. He's an excellent two way player who had a slower adjustment to the NA style. He's been coming on offensively the last couple months...much like how it took Jurco half a year to get his bearings in the AHL. All the coaches in GR rave about Jarnkrok, as they should, he's a fantastic prospect.

It's great that Jurco is doing well in his time in Detroit and I love his game but it's not fair to Mantha and our other younger prospects to use pro experience as the most meaningful criteria when ranking a teams prospects. Mantha is producing at nearly twice the rate Jurco did in junior. His NHL potential is off the charts. He's ready for pro hockey right now, it's not his fault he's not allowed to play in the AHL yet. I have little doubt Mantha will be a better pro player than Jurco.

I'll ask again using Tampa as an example, they've had several prospects up on their NHL team this year. JT Brown has played fairly well for them. Does this make Brown more valuable to Tampa than their other prospects who have yet to transition to pro? Do you think Tampa values Brown more than Drouin because he's playing pro and Drouin isn't? Of course not, Tampa wouldn't think twice about trading Brown if the right offer came along, whereas Drouin is pretty much untouchable. Mantha's value has skyrocketed, to the point where his value is right around what Drouin's currently is imo. He's outproducing him (the 3rd overall pick) by a decent margin. If there was a redraft of the 2013 draft today Mantha would easily be a top 10 pick. Probably top 5 if it wasn't such a ridiculously deep draft.

 

[mindfly]

It has got to be Mantha

 

[drw02]

Of course not. I don't think it should be all or nothing in terms of total upside vs where they're at in their development. It's a balance, which is where the subjectivity of rankings comes into play. But to rank players based strictly on total upside, or strictly on how close they are to the NHL, is, quite frankly, pointless.





I assert that it does. You're talking about that transition as if it were automatic. But it's not. In reality, it's a hurdle that many prospects fail to get over. So when they do get over it, they are that much closer to being an NHLer, and therefor they are more valuable. And, in the end, that's what we're ranking, right? The value of a prospect? Even though we may all have different criteria.

This is why I have a problem basing rankings off criteria that not all prospects have been afforded. It should be an equal playing field. Just because a certain prospect is older than another and has had a chance to prove more does not make them more valuable.


Some players make the transition to pro and then fall flat after a couple years. It's not an exact science, just because a player had a couple good pro seasons doesn't mean that success will follow them for their entire career. So just as much as a junior prospect has to prove themselves in pro hockey...a young pro still has to prove they can do it consistently year after year.

Players are ranked by skill, upside, and value. Experience should be given the least consideration. What you see when you watch them (eyeball test), comparing comparable stats, assessing the trade value.

1. Mantha (top line, all-star potential)
2. Jurco (top line potential)
3. Mrazek (starting potential)
4. Sheahan (top 6 center potential)
5. Sproul (top 4, PP QB potential)
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10. Athanasiou (2nd-3rd line potential)
11. Janmark (2nd-3rd line potential)
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15. Callahan (3rd-4th line potential)
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etc

 

[Frozen Fiend]

Mantha, even when you weigh in the fact that he hasn't made the transition, his upside is still too high. Love what Jurco and Mrazk have done though.

 

[Winger98]

Mantha, even when you weigh in the fact that he hasn't made the transition, his upside is still too high. Love what Jurco and Mrazk have done though.

I don't think Mantha or Mrazek have very different ceilings. One might score 40, but the other might rock a .920+ sv% with a handful of shutouts.

 

[InjuredChoker]

I don't think Mantha or Mrazek have very different ceilings. One might score 40, but the other might rock a .920+ sv% with a handful of shutouts.

i take the 40 goal guy.

replacement level goalie (ahl callup/ the ones you sign at UFA for less than 1 mil) have around .910 sv%.. replacement level forward might score like 10 goals.

 

[NewHopeForEveryone]

I voted Jurco. IMO, Jurco, Mantha and Mrazek are the top 3, and I can understand ranking them in any order. I like that Jurco has been successful at the AHL level and isn't looking out of place at the NHL level now, and even got a selection to the Czech national team for the Olympics, though making the Czech team isn't like making the more stacked Canada, US, Sweden, Russian, etc... teams, it is still a big accomplishment. Not a knock on Mantha for playing in a lesser league, but I like what I have seen from Jurco at the AHL/NHL level.

dont you say! I cant find him on any Czech roster...how its possible? hmm maybe because he is Slovak? but im not sure

 

[odin1981]

Ok I will now start with a confrontational opinion.

As most know on here I value NHL readiness over anything else (I had Glendening in my top 10 as I believe #10 this early year.) I will now make my case for RIley Sheahan as the #1 prospect of the Detroit Red Wings.

He right now looks to be more than capable of running a 3rd line in the NHL. He if he remained on the red wings right now allows the wings at ES to roll all 4 lines. It is basically a 3 scoring +1 energy atm. He is a valuble 2 way centerman, who can make good passing plays goes to the front of the net on the breakout, and is not afraid to shoot it when he is open in front. He is on pace for around .55 ppg with third line time and some 2 pp unit time. He also has room to improve. I could see him be ready for potential #2 center duties on the NHL team in 2 years.

The main reason I am voting him over Jurco at this time is while jurco has played fantastic in his role on the line, sheahan has just outperformed. Mantha is a good young player but he is playing against boys these two are playing against men. Though I would love to see him go to the ahl club after the memorial cup this year.

 

[Laser Rayzor]

Looks like the poll has closed with Mantha the victor.

This 2 horse race is still too close to call right now, I think I'll start the next poll and declare the victor at noon tomorrow.

Sidenote: Does anyone know how to set the exact time when a poll closes? The only option I see is how many days it will run but is it possible to set it down to the hour?

 

[odin1981]

This 2 horse race is still too close to call right now, I think I'll start the next poll and declare the victor at noon tomorrow.

Sidenote: Does anyone know how to set the exact time when a poll closes? The only option I see is how many days it will run but is it possible to set it down to the hour?

What was your name before Jurky?

 

[Flowah]

What was your name before Jurky?

Hover over the username to see previous usernames. In this case, Dolph Lundgren.

 

[odin1981]

Hover over the username to see previous usernames. In this case, Dolph Lundgren.

Ah ok thank you didn't know about that Flowah thanks for the info. Knew hm from before just didn't know who he was after the name change thanks.

 

[jaster]

This is why I have a problem basing rankings off criteria that not all prospects have been afforded. It should be an equal playing field. Just because a certain prospect is older than another and has had a chance to prove more does not make them more valuable.

Everything else being equal, of course it does. The potential for failure faces every prospect, and the earlier they are in their developmental process, the higher that potential is. And the higher the potential for failure, the less valuable they are (again, everything else being equal). A hypothetical example would be 'Future Mantha' as a rookie AHLer who is netting 40 goals for GR vs 'Present Mantha,' the guy we see today. I don't see how someone could say the former isn't more valuable than the latter.

Some players make the transition to pro and then fall flat after a couple years. It's not an exact science, just because a player had a couple good pro seasons doesn't mean that success will follow them for their entire career. So just as much as a junior prospect has to prove themselves in pro hockey...a young pro still has to prove they can do it consistently year after year.

Agreed. But we aren't talking about young pros, we're talking about prospects. And while a hockey player is prone to failure at any point in his career, some are more prone than others, based on how far along in their development they are. And being prone to failure is a real factor, one that I think should be weighted. I don't see a valid reason to ignore it.

Players are ranked by skill, upside, and value. Experience should be given the least consideration. What you see when you watch them (eyeball test), comparing comparable stats, assessing the trade value.

I'm not talking about experience, per se. Specifically, I'm talking about potential for failure and transitions to higher leagues. That may be related to experience, but it's not the same thing.

 

[hot dog]

I see Mrazek as a future elite NHL goalie. He's my #1 (and was back in the summer, too). Mantha and Jurco obviously the next two to give us a ridiculous top three. Mantha probably over Jurco for me.

 

[newfy]

No red wing in 20 years has dominated junior or the World Juniors like Mantha did this season. At 6'5 cant put anyone ahead of him. He has had a much more impressive time in the Q than Jurco for example who looks great in the AHL and solid in the NHL. I'm just not as high as goalies, theyre easier to find than a real top line forward

 

[Winger98]

i take the 40 goal guy.

replacement level goalie (ahl callup/ the ones you sign at UFA for less than 1 mil) have around .910 sv%.. replacement level forward might score like 10 goals.

I would, too, but I'm a hard sell on goalies.

Still, I don't think their respective ceilings are that far off. If Mrazek meets his, he's a perennial Vezina candidate. That's a pretty high ceiling, and he's further along towards meeting it.

 

[ChadS]

Glendening






Voted Mantha but could have gone with Jurco or Mrazek too, and Sheahan has really impressed during his call-up. Tough choice.

 

[Konnan511]

Voted Mrzak. Add Marchy and Pulu, drop Frk.

 

[Caser]

Jurco, add Marchenko

 

[Puddles]

Jurco. Big, can skate, great mits, not afraid of nhl in terms of physicality, good offensive instincts. I think he is still a little intimidated in the sense that he seems hesitant to use his hands/moves in the nhl. Just needs a bit more confidence.