Dennis Cholowski signs a 3 year EL Contract

[vladdy16]

I wasn't making assumptions. I was simply reading what people wrote. In a thread that wasn't even about Cholowski some people were building a case against Chychrun.

And it's not about disagreeing with me. I honestly have no feelings about Chychrun and don't care about his development since he's not on the Red Wings. But the exaggerations were obvious even to someone without a horse in the race.

I just find it funny that people feel the need to bag on a young player to justify one of Holland's moves when we're at least a few seasons away from knowing how any of the people involved turn out.

Yes, you are making assumptions about the intentions behind what people wrote/are writing. You're adding to those assumptions with this post.

Even if it's obvious in some cases, it doesn't merit transferring that impression into other arguments made by other people in other threads, and certainly shouldn't be the foundation for the basis of your own opinion. Whether some fans are biased in their impressions or not, has no actual baring on the relevant talking points regarding either/any player.

If you were to make counterpoints, as to where you think people are glossing over Chychruns value/attributes, and someone responded with "well you're just saying that to justify your problem with Red Wings management", they wouldn't be making a solid argument, they'd be making an irrelevant assumption in lieu of an argument.

 

[SCD]

Anybody interested in just talking about Cholowski as a prospect?

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

The football comparison isnt a good one. Way too many positions and the age difference of the draft from NFL and NHL is way too big. Drafting for needs is always done in the NFL, rarely in the NHL.

I really think if Detroit thought Hronek was going to be the better player they would've taken him first, but they lukced out and got both players. We're not dealing in unknowns/unscouted players like a Datsyuk.

Smith was considered a late first/early second type prospect and arguably the toughest player in the draft. Hronek was the top ranked European dman in the draft. I highly doubt the wings were risking letting the top dman from Europe in the draft for 7 picks if they thought he was going to be better than Smith. In the second round of an NFL draft youre drafting a very likely starter and impact player around the 40th pick, in the NHL its a long shot so you go with whatever you think is best 5 or 6 years down the road. Most guys are out of the NFL 6 years down the road so the comparison being used here isnt a very good one

I don't think the Wings care about if a guy is the top D man from Europe or Asia or whatever. Was he more likely to last till 53 than Givani Smith? That's the only matter. It's got nothing to do with them thinking that Hronek is a better or worse player than Smith. It's kind of like what Bob McKenzie said in his Bobcast leading up to the draft. "It only takes one". A guy who is probably the 12th OA prospect could go at 19 or 20 or even later if every team from 12-20 had another guy ranked at #10 or #11 on their board. If Smith is a projected late 1st, early second and Hronek is a mid 2nd, early 3rd and you want both.. you go Smith then Hronek. I mean, the Wings took Bob Boughner before Nick Lidstrom and Sergei Fedorov. They were geared up to take Pavel Bure in the 6th round in the same draft. Did they think Bob Boughner was a better player than those three Hall of Famers? I don't think so.

Givani Smith (RW)	Canada	Detroit Red Wings	Guelph Storm (OHL)
47	Samuel Girard (D)	Canada	Nashville Predators	Shawinigan Cataractes (QMJHL)
48	Carter Hart (G)	Canada	Philadelphia Flyers	Everett Silvertips (WHL)
49	Ryan Lindgren (D)	United States	Boston Bruins (from NY Islanders)10	U.S. NTDP (USHL)
50	Artur Kayumov (LW/RW)	Russia	Chicago Blackhawks (from NY Rangers via Carolina)11	Russia U18 (MHL)
51	Kale Clague (D)	Canada	Los Angeles Kings	Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL)
52	Wade Allison (RW)	Canada	Philadelphia Flyers (from Chicago)12	Tri-City Storm (USHL)
53	Filip Hronek (D)

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Look at the picks between them too. Virtually nothing in terms of forwards while there were two D that some here wanted VERY badly. So, basically starting at pick 46 where Smith was taken, there were four potential D that Detroit could want and honestly, I don't think they could possibly have gone wrong if they took Girard or Clague or Hronek. Don't know as much about Lindgren.

It's exactly like the fantasy football draft. If you're there at the fourth round and you have the choice of a top 15 running back and there are four or five different QBs on the board at your pick, you take the RB and land whatever QB is there because QBs 5-8 are all substantially similar whereas if you waited on the running back, you get Ameer Abudullah.

 

[RedMenace]

Anybody interested in just talking about Cholowski as a prospect?

Welcome to every thread on this board.

 

[lomekian]

A very different set of rules, but an example in concept:

Say I'm drafting my fantasy football team. It's the 7th round, and I could either take my starting QB or yet another RB/WR. I'm drafting 11 out of 12 teams, so there is only one team (making 2 selections) in between my 7th and 8th round picks (in a serpentine draft).

Both a QB I want and a RB I want are available for my 7th round pick. And the team after me already has their starting QB.

Now individually, that QB is definitely higher on my priority list than the RB, and I value him much more than taking my 3rd or 4th RB. But if I have good reason to expect that the team(s) in between my picks will not take a QB, then I can take a calculated risk, select the RB in the 7th round, and expect the QB to still be there for my 8th pick, so that I end up with BOTH the guys I want.

Again, the NHL draft is a very different animal. I'm just saying that it's possible to value Player A more than Player B, yet still have a good reason to take Player B first, depending on the lay of the land (scarcity by position, needs of other teams, drop-off in talent to the next guy at said position, etc).

But is it possible to have that level of calculation of risk when there are 6 different teams in between your two picks, all with 30 man deep prospect pools. Is it actually plausible to suggest that DRW could say with confidence that every team of that 6 would place a LW ahead of a puck moving D-Man, particularly at a time when the type of player Hronek is is massively in vogue around the league, and that D seem to have massively higher trade value than wingers of late?

As my earlier reply implied, your model can work if you have limited variables and good intelligence about the organisational priorities of those teams in between your two picks, and a small distance between them. However, I don't believe this could possibly apply in this case without psychic powers or telephone bugging...

 

[lomekian]

I don't think the Wings care about if a guy is the top D man from Europe or Asia or whatever. Was he more likely to last till 53 than Givani Smith? That's the only matter. It's got nothing to do with them thinking that Hronek is a better or worse player than Smith. It's kind of like what Bob McKenzie said in his Bobcast leading up to the draft. "It only takes one". A guy who is probably the 12th OA prospect could go at 19 or 20 or even later if every team from 12-20 had another guy ranked at #10 or #11 on their board. If Smith is a projected late 1st, early second and Hronek is a mid 2nd, early 3rd and you want both.. you go Smith then Hronek. I mean, the Wings took Bob Boughner before Nick Lidstrom and Sergei Fedorov. They were geared up to take Pavel Bure in the 6th round in the same draft. Did they think Bob Boughner was a better player than those three Hall of Famers? I don't think so.

Givani Smith (RW)	Canada	Detroit Red Wings	Guelph Storm (OHL)
47	Samuel Girard (D)	Canada	Nashville Predators	Shawinigan Cataractes (QMJHL)
48	Carter Hart (G)	Canada	Philadelphia Flyers	Everett Silvertips (WHL)
49	Ryan Lindgren (D)	United States	Boston Bruins (from NY Islanders)10	U.S. NTDP (USHL)
50	Artur Kayumov (LW/RW)	Russia	Chicago Blackhawks (from NY Rangers via Carolina)11	Russia U18 (MHL)
51	Kale Clague (D)	Canada	Los Angeles Kings	Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL)
52	Wade Allison (RW)	Canada	Philadelphia Flyers (from Chicago)12	Tri-City Storm (USHL)
53	Filip Hronek (D)

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Look at the picks between them too. Virtually nothing in terms of forwards while there were two D that some here wanted VERY badly. So, basically starting at pick 46 where Smith was taken, there were four potential D that Detroit could want and honestly, I don't think they could possibly have gone wrong if they took Girard or Clague or Hronek. Don't know as much about Lindgren.

It's exactly like the fantasy football draft. If you're there at the fourth round and you have the choice of a top 15 running back and there are four or five different QBs on the board at your pick, you take the RB and land whatever QB is there because QBs 5-8 are all substantially similar whereas if you waited on the running back, you get Ameer Abudullah.

A more convincing argument than many in this direction, but if the Russia situation was clearer, Fedorov and Bure would have gone in the top 10. With Smith vs Hronek there is hardly the Iron Curtain to contend with.

I still the comparison with the NFL is a weak one, but you outline your argument well. Although your detail undermines the original argument made - that the Wings would have taken Hronek had they not made the trade they did.

I suppose this brings us back to the original Cholowski related question. With 1 2nd round pick and with a D-man picked in round 1, do you think that DRW takes Hronek ahead of Smith?

 

[lomekian]

Anybody interested in just talking about Cholowski as a prospect?

One question I'd like to put about Cholowski to those who have watched him regularly, rather than occasionally like myself, is who out of our current d-men we feel he would mesh best with when brought up for a look? And assuming he starts at the AHL, who at that level? Which partnership would put him in the greatest position to succeed. As a 2 way d-man with good all-round skills, but obviously green at pro level, is it better to pair him with a more defensive specialist and give him freedom, or with a more offensive player to keep the pressure to put up points off while he learns how to play positionally at the higher level?

 

[Pavels Dog]

I mean, the Wings took Bob Boughner before Nick Lidstrom and Sergei Fedorov. They were geared up to take Pavel Bure in the 6th round in the same draft. Did they think Bob Boughner was a better player than those three Hall of Famers? I don't think so.

Yes they did. Welcome to how the draft works (though in case of the russians there other factors at play).

 

[vladdy16]

Anybody interested in just talking about Cholowski as a prospect?

What's stopping you?

 

[jkutswings]

Yes they did. Welcome to how the draft works (though in case of the russians there other factors at play).

To be fair, it's been stated by the Red Wings themselves that it wasn't just A factor, but THE factor in drafting Fedorov so late: nobody had ever gotten a Russian player to actually come over, so the league-wide thinking up to that point had been, 'why waste a pick on a Russian, no matter how talented, since they'll never play a game in the NHL?'

Really, at the time, drafting Fedorov in ANY round was going out on a limb. He just became the first guy to defect, and then the floodgates opened during the following years.

 

[Frk It]

This definitely happens both ways. Rasmussen’s even strength points was a hot button topic after his Draft. He did a good job silencing that concern but it was frequently discussed.

Also if we want to talk about magification of “weakness” and overcompensating Cholowski’s “baby face” was a flash point for some of the Holland haters.

Of course people will push back when they see these kind of critiques of players that other posters hadn’t even watched.

I agree with you though. It would be nice to see more civility and nuance applied to these conversations rather than pettiness and polarization.

It definitely has cut both ways, without a doubt. This season might be rough from a W-L record, but I think we will get a solid view on these kids, and I think it will show we have a bright future, even if it’s not with the guys everyone wanted (myself included).

 

[SCD]

What's stopping you?

Nothing, I have responded much about Cholowski as a prospect.

He has probably one of the most physically immature prospects to be drafted this high in a while. Do I think he was a reach....absolutely. But I think this kid has real potential. Maybe because he is intelligent.

I look back at some of our outstanding players and the one commonality is intelligence. Yzerman, Shanahan, Lidstrom, Larionov, and on. Intelligence is what often elevates players to the next level.

Does it mean Cholowski will be a HOFer....absolutely NOT. But it is one thing that won't be holding him back ( I keep having flashbacks of B.Smith playing the puck from the bench).

I don't know his level of drive. If he has Larkin-like drive, then I think he could develop into a huge asset.

Maybe it is just looking for hope when faced with our current reality on defense.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Nothing, I have responded much about Cholowski as a prospect.

He has probably one of the most physically immature prospects to be drafted this high in a while. Do I think he was a reach....absolutely. But I think this kid has real potential. Maybe because he is intelligent.

I look back at some of our outstanding players and the one commonality is intelligence. Yzerman, Shanahan, Lidstrom, Larionov, and on. Intelligence is what often elevates players to the next level.

Does it mean Cholowski will be a HOFer....absolutely NOT. But it is one thing that won't be holding him back ( I keep having flashbacks of B.Smith playing the puck from the bench).

I don't know his level of drive. If he has Larkin-like drive, then I think he could develop into a huge asset.

Maybe it is just looking for hope when faced with our current reality on defense.

Cholowski has spent the past two off-seasons on his own dime in Detroit just to work out and get better with other Wings prospects. He has according to him never had a drink of alcohol and isn't into partying. Best I can tell, he likes shoes and hockey from the interviews we have. He is an intense guy that wants to be really good and is very focused on improving as a player. He also admits he opens up once you know him better so I think some of this picture is to be determined. But he seems like a very mature young man who is focused on being a difference making NHL D-man.

Larkin, Rasmussen, Cholowski, Zadina and Hronek are all guys that have a rink rat label around them. I think they are going to need it, the next couple years are going to be tough more than likely. But I am not worried about them putting in the work, that is something people glow about with them is their hunger to work at getting better.

I know some in this fanbase have taken shots at it, but I think it is important to what makes a star player. Like you said they are generally pretty smart guys as well. Yeah they need to have the right talent, but you also have to put in a lot of work in most cases, especially to be a consistent star.

 

[SCD]

It is a little early to get too excited, but it is nice to see how much his game has progressed. If he could add an accurate heavy slapper to his tool box, he could definitely be a cornerstone.

 

[newfy]

Hes looked really good in the prospect tournament. He can really skate (like really good) and has been putting up points in the tournament. Doesnt panic with the puck and always takes his time, which made me nervous at a couple points because he was holding it so long but he made a lay with it. Might not work at the NHL level though we'll see

 

[Claypool]

What I look for in an NHL defenseman, specifically on the PP, is how calm they are with the puck at the blue line to keep it in. He makes the easy play nearly every time. He doesn't panic. To me, he's going to be a top-pairing guy if he continues progressing the way he is. He's Detroit's best prospect right now and it's not even close.

 

[InjuredChoker]

Yes they did. Welcome to how the draft works (though in case of the russians there other factors at play).

if you're saying they thought boughner was better than those HOFers and thus drafted him ahead of them and that's how the draft works, you'd be wrong.

 

[Pavels Dog]

if you're saying they thought boughner was better than those HOFers and thus drafted him ahead of them and that's how the draft works, you'd be wrong.

If you think scouts see HoF potential in a player and still waits beyond the 1st round to pick them, you are crazy.

You are just using hindsight.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

if you're saying they thought boughner was better than those HOFers and thus drafted him ahead of them and that's how the draft works, you'd be wrong.

Why would they take him before them then?

 

[InjuredChoker]

If you think scouts see HoF potential in a player and still waits beyond the 1st round to pick them, you are crazy.

You are just using hindsight.

no, i wasn't referring as much to that particular instance but in general. ''that's how the draft works''. no it doesn't or at least it shouldn't. wings literally picked datsyuk later, over lesser players on their opinion because they knew no one had seen him.

nor did i say they knew they had HOFers in feds and lidström but if there was no iron curtain or lids had been talked about lot more, they'd had to take a chance on them earlier. now they could afford to wait because they weren't on the radar. they identified undervalued talent and waited until their 3and 4th pick to pick them since they were so likely to be there and this way they could take chances on higher rated (in general) players that wouldn't have been there in the 3rd and 4th. that's how the draft works if you do it well.

i think tsweeney nailed it, both the theory and what the wings thought process was/is at the draft table, except in the 2013 draft wings had 3 forwards they liked at #18 and thus they could trade down two spots and still get one of the targets.

 

[Pavels Dog]

no, i wasn't referring as much to that particular instance but in general. ''that's how the draft works''. no it doesn't or at least it shouldn't. wings literally picked datsyuk later, over lesser players on their opinion because they knew no one had seen him.

nor did i say they knew they had HOFers in feds and lidström but if there was no iron curtain or lids had been talked about lot more, they'd had to take a chance on them earlier. now they could afford to wait because they weren't on the radar. they identified undervalued talent and waited until their 3and 4th pick to pick them since they were so likely to be there and this way they could take chances on higher rated (in general) players that wouldn't have been there in the 3rd and 4th. that's how the draft works if you do it well.

i think tsweeney nailed it, both the theory and what the wings thought process was/is at the draft table, except in the 2013 draft wings had 3 forwards they liked at #18 and thus they could trade down two spots and still get one of the targets.

When it comes to Datsyuk, no one in the Wings organization had really seen him except Andersson either. So it was simply a case where Holland trusted individual scouts (like Håkan) with later round picks, while earlier picks where more consensus picks on players that more people had seen. It was a total gamble and essentially saying "well in the 6th round you're unlikely to ever find anything so let's just trust Håkan here". Maybe Håkan liked Pavel better than earlier picks, but it does't matter. Would you gamble your job on trying to convince your boss that the super skinny, unknown kid playing out in nowhere in Russia that you've seen play TWICE is going to be a superstar? I doubt it. You gamble on

Some of what you're saying goes back to europe being underscouted back in the day, but there's also the simple fact that these guys went under the radar because they weren't very good at 17-18. Maybe the thought process has changed, but in general teams scout kids and create lists rankings them. The reason "weird" things happen on draft day is because certain teams can rank certain players much higher or much lower than "consensus". And if you rate someone higher, you tend to take that player instead of gambling that they will stick around for a later pick. Just think about, unless you are 100% sure that the player you like more will actually be available later on, why even risk it? It goes against the entire purpose of why you even scout these players, and it's operating under the assumption that a "consensus" exists, which it doesn't. A team can take a 7th round ranked player in the 2nd. Tyler Bertuzzi is an example.

 

[InjuredChoker]

When it comes to Datsyuk, no one in the Wings organization had really seen him except Andersson either. So it was simply a case where Holland trusted individual scouts (like Håkan) with later round picks, while earlier picks where more consensus picks on players that more people had seen. It was a total gamble and essentially saying "well in the 6th round you're unlikely to ever find anything so let's just trust Håkan here". Maybe Håkan liked Pavel better than earlier picks, but it does't matter. Would you gamble your job on trying to convince your boss that the super skinny, unknown kid playing out in nowhere in Russia that you've seen play TWICE is going to be a superstar? I doubt it. You gamble on

there's a difference between 'going to be superstar vs. liking him more than half dozen or so picks you've already made.

Some of what you're saying goes back to europe being underscouted back in the day, but there's also the simple fact that these guys went under the radar because they weren't very good at 17-18. Maybe the thought process has changed, but in general teams scout kids and create lists rankings them. The reason "weird" things happen on draft day is because certain teams can rank certain players much higher or much lower than "consensus". And if you rate someone higher, you tend to take that player instead of gambling that they will stick around for a later pick. Just think about, unless you are 100% sure that the player you like more will actually be available later on, why even risk it? It goes against the entire purpose of why you even scout these players, and it's operating under the assumption that a "consensus" exists, which it doesn't. A team can take a 7th round ranked player in the 2nd. Tyler Bertuzzi is an example.

except fedorov was a known really food player when he was drafted.

and i think that's how in general teams create draft lists. but there have been and will be occasions where one team is higher on someone than anyone else. that's where ability to play the draft comes into play. those who are good at it can get more players at the draft that are rated higher on their draft boards.

letting a player fall that you like because you think he will be available later on is operating under the assumption that this on particular player will fal. i guess on could say there's a consensus on that player.

bert's 7th round ranks were by draft media. lot of teams had him higher than that, even his junior coach said there was ton of interest in him before the draft. NYR would've taken him in the 3rd so that's an other occason where kenny played his cards right on the draft day. that's been one strength of his over the yaers.

 

[Pavels Dog]

there's a difference between 'going to be superstar vs. liking him more than half dozen or so picks you've already made.



except fedorov was a known really food player when he was drafted.

and i think that's how in general teams create draft lists. but there have been and will be occasions where one team is higher on someone than anyone else. that's where ability to play the draft comes into play. those who are good at it can get more players at the draft that are rated higher on their draft boards.

letting a player fall that you like because you think he will be available later on is operating under the assumption that this on particular player will fal. i guess on could say there's a consensus on that player.

bert's 7th round ranks were by draft media. lot of teams had him higher than that, even his junior coach said there was ton of interest in him before the draft. NYR would've taken him in the 3rd so that's an other occason where kenny played his cards right on the draft day. that's been one strength of his over the yaers.

I understand your thought process, but nothing I've heard or read about teams drafting process really makes me believe it works the way you say.

You just can't know if you are rating someone higher than anyone else, and in the end it doesn't really matter. What matters is getting the players you want. If the #1, #2 and #3 players on your list are available, what would feel worse to miss out on? The #2 or #3 player, or the #1 player? And if you are ranking someone higher than others, doesn't taking other players mean that player you really, really like will climb on other teams lists by process of elimination? I mean, if Wings take Vilardi or Necas, Rasmussen probably gets taken by Carolina or LA. You need to have a VERY good idea of every team's plans in order to play these games you are talking about.

 

[InjuredChoker]

I understand your thought process, but nothing I've heard or read about teams drafting process really makes me believe it works the way you say.

You just can't know if you are rating someone higher than anyone else, and in the end it doesn't really matter. What matters is getting the players you want. If the #1, #2 and #3 players on your list are available, what would feel worse to miss out on? The #2 or #3 player, or the #1 player? And if you are ranking someone higher than others, doesn't taking other players mean that player you really, really like will climb on other teams lists by process of elimination? I mean, if Wings take Vilardi or Necas, Rasmussen probably gets taken by Carolina or LA. You need to have a VERY good idea of every team's plans in order to play these games you are talking about.

teams have interests not to disclose their drafting strategy.

you can't know if you are rating someone higher than anyone else or at least it's really hard to know but it matters a TON. it helps a lot at getting the players you want.

Rasmussen was going pretty early and Wings next pick wasn't until round later so there wasn't room to play any games. however, if we a hypothetical that givani smith was #2(or 3) on the wings board when their first second rounder was on the clock back in 2016. hronek was #1. another defender (that would go between smith and hronek) was #3(or #2). and they felt that it was more likely that hronek would fall (and/or the other D ranked high on their list would fall) than smith so they took Smith with their first second rounder and took their chance that hronek or the other D would be there for their next one. now they got both of their top2/3 targets with those picks.

we don't know enough about NHL teams draft strategies to say definititely how they build their boards but this happens quite a bit in the NFL (especially in the mid rounds).

usually it's safer to just take the #1 guy left on your board. however, on later picks, players with character/injury issues etc. that are pretty much guaranteed to fall and when one has picks that are close to each other like us in '16 2nd round, that's where teams that know how to 'play the draft' can gain most value.

 

[Ezekial]

We're talking about that "bow-legged pigeon-toed kid" that showed up to camp right? Not the future hall of famer he became.

The kid who was drafted and didn't know it until his friend told him, he said "good joke" and then he went and got the newspaper to prove it to him.