News Article: Dellow: How the Winnipeg Jets are redefining the Ovi Spot [paywall]

[Weezeric]

Forced seam passes that kill a power play attempt aren't useful. You should try not moving the goalposts, the motion seems to be distracting you. Is there anything shiny near you?

But they're not killing plays. They're leading to the 2nd best pp in the league. I get that it's harder to find something to complain about but the fact that the jets are doing something on the powerplay that hasn't been done as effectively before and it's leading to success is worth complaining about is a strange one to choose.

 

[Board Bard]

But they're not killing plays. They're leading to the 2nd best pp in the league. I get that it's harder to find something to complain about but the fact that the jets are doing something on the powerplay that hasn't been done as effectively before and it's leading to success is worth complaining about is a strange one to choose.

The many seam passes that have failed have certainly killed plays.

 

[Weezeric]

The many seam passes that have failed have certainly killed plays.

Have they killed more plays than the 29 other teams that have a worse powerplay?

By that logic, you should never take a shot on net because the vast majority don't end up in goals....

 

[Channelcat]

Watching Tuesday night's Winnipeg-Tampa Bay game, there was a sequence at 5-on-3 that had me muttering in frustration. Dustin Byfuglien had the puck on the point and made a short pass to Patrik Laine, camped out in the “Ovi Spot.” Laine did his thing but, given the relatively short distance of the pass, Louis Domingue was set for the shot and easily smothered it for a faceoff.

Winnipeg won the faceoff from that and, on the ensuing possession, set up another shot for Laine. This time it was Blake Wheeler making a seam pass to Laine. Laine blew it past Domingue, who was nowhere near set for the shot.


Dellow: How the Winnipeg Jets are redefining the Ovi Spot

Dellow is pointing out how unlike pretty much any team before we are using a forward to feed the onetimer. Also discusses the value and interchangeability of all the right shots.

On a related not, I've been very impressed with Maurices ability to finally realize the value of this play and how its executed. However you do it, the idea is to make the goalie move as far and as quick as possible...hopefully he is unable. It needs to be done deep in the zone and from one side to the other. Remember the D to D one timer? We used to do this this ALL the time! Not only is it a turnover machine, it doesn't provide any geometrical advantage. Noel really loved that play.

 

[garret9]

Here's a question for you Garret. Maurice today mentioned (it's not the first time he's said this) that part of their strategy is that the goaltenders know where the shots are going to be coming from. It almost sounds like they are baiting teams into taking those shots. That may or may not be true. If true though could this account for some of the improved 4 v 5 sv%.

Sorry, I didn't see your reply until now, the answer is in here:

It will cost you, but basically think the old xG by DTM and then add passing information (and also my shot location data is slightly superior).

DTM's model was 0.82 in sample R^2 between ixG/60 and iG/60 at player level.
All I can say is mine is larger than that.

Essentially, my model accounts for puck movement (therefore goaltender movement) and shot location, so when I said:

Allowed 5 more goals than expected due to shot volume
Allowed 2 fewer goals than expected due to shot quality
Allowed 7 fewer goals than expected due to goaltending

The 2 goals fewer than league average due to shot quality would be that "baiting" weaker shots.

My point was that if it is a quality for quantity trade off, the Jets are losing that trade off due to the high number of shots they allow.
However, I added the caveat that it could be personnel and not system, since some have done well (Copp and Lowry are both superior to league average when combining shot quality and quantity) while others have performed terribly (Hendricks, Byfuglien, and Tanev).