News Article: Dellow: How the Winnipeg Jets are redefining the Ovi Spot [paywall]

[Board Bard]

Did you read the article before spewing your hate? The jets have already matched what only a few teams have done over whole seasons with regards to scoring goals with shots from that spot off a pass from a forward. They still have >30 games to go, so will likely do something never done as effectively before.

Pundits exaggerate all the time. It's part of their business. What's curious is how offended you seem to be that the object of this particular laudatory assessment is the Winnipeg Jets.

Hate? Haha. I miss Grade 6.

What exceptional exaggeration. It's you guys who should be writing for the Athletic.

Futility? Sitting 2nd in the league on the PP doesn't speak futility to me maybe you should look up the definition of futility. Now if you are speaking of years past than maybe your post has a bit more validity but this season futility is the last thing I'd call it.

I'd say trying to force seam passes through a forest of sticks and legs and immediately having to chase the puck back to their own zone is a pretty good example of futility, and it's something we've seen many times this season, particularly by Wheeler and Laine. Here's a definition of futility since you seem to want one: Uselessness as a consequence of having no practical result.

 

[Gm0ney]

The Jets PK strategy is to collapse to the middle and prevent high danger chances while allowing easier chances from the wings. Seems to be working now that they are executing it effectively.

Yeah it's been pretty good since the initial stages of the season - maybe that early gong show was just what it looked like as the Jets got comfortable with the system. I wonder if it's sustainable though? The scheme has an Achilles Heel and someone will figure it out sooner or later.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Yeah it's been pretty good since the initial stages of the season - maybe that early gong show was just what it looked like as the Jets got comfortable with the system. I wonder if it's sustainable though? The scheme has an Achilles Heel and someone will figure it out sooner or later.

Earlier Dellow compared the Winnipeg Jets to a Death Star. He also compared Hendricks & Tanev on the PK as the Thermal Exaust Port. Perhaps these numbers are looking better lately? He did show that Hendricks is much better at reducing HDSC than Tanev.

 

[CorgisPer60]

Really nice seeing Maurce and Kompon taking an innovative appraoch to systems (5v5 and special teams) and succeeding. Worth noting that PK is up to 6th in the league.

Helps when your best PKer is your goalie. The Jets still employ a passive box to block off dangerous cross-seam passes, but they're now attacking the points more often. It's great to see, as opposed to earlier in the year where they were just allowing them to pass it willy-nilly.

 

[Farmboy Patty]

Hate? Haha. I miss Grade 6.

What exceptional exaggeration. It's you guys who should be writing for the Athletic.



I'd say trying to force seam passes through a forest of sticks and legs and immediately having to chase the puck back to their own zone is a pretty good example of futility, and it's something we've seen many times this season, particularly by Wheeler and Laine. Here's a definition of futility since you seem to want one: Uselessness as a consequence of having no practical result.

Guess what we have seen many times this season as well? The Jets score on the PP on a onetimer from a seam pass.
The practical result of those "useless" seam passes is that the Jets score at a terrific rate on the PP. There are other plays as well, but the occasional seam pass is something that keeps the PK and goalie guessing.

 

[JohnStaymoose]

Hate? Haha. I miss Grade 6.

What exceptional exaggeration. It's you guys who should be writing for the Athletic.



I'd say trying to force seam passes through a forest of sticks and legs and immediately having to chase the puck back to their own zone is a pretty good example of futility, and it's something we've seen many times this season, particularly by Wheeler and Laine. Here's a definition of futility since you seem to want one: Uselessness as a consequence of having no practical result.

But the results prove that our PP is not futile like you are so desperately trying to assume and a 24.7% PP rate proves that not to mention the Jets have scored plenty of PP goals that don't include a seam pass and the name Laine or Wheeler. The PP is clearly not useless and the consequence of that is 2nd place in the NHL power play rankings so in theory your word of "futile" should be re-worded to "effective".

I have a blast watching the Jets on the PP as their movement has improved drastically from years past and it's unfortunate you don't want to appreciate that or recognize it.

 

[Whileee]

Hate? Haha. I miss Grade 6.

What exceptional exaggeration. It's you guys who should be writing for the Athletic.



I'd say trying to force seam passes through a forest of sticks and legs and immediately having to chase the puck back to their own zone is a pretty good example of futility, and it's something we've seen many times this season, particularly by Wheeler and Laine. Here's a definition of futility since you seem to want one: Uselessness as a consequence of having no practical result.

Well, scoring more frequently than almost every other team is sort of a practical result.

It used to the all about the poor results for the Jets' critics. Now that the Jets are getting results and have at top-end PP, it's about the eye test of critical posters.

It's hard to keep track...

 

[Board Bard]

Well, scoring more frequently than almost every other team is sort of a practical result.

It used to the all about the poor results for the Jets' critics. Now that the Jets are getting results and have at top-end PP, it's about the eye test of critical posters.

It's hard to keep track...

Forced seam passes that kill a power play attempt aren't useful. You should try not moving the goalposts, the motion seems to be distracting you. Is there anything shiny near you?

 

[Puckatron 3000]

Yeah it's been pretty good since the initial stages of the season - maybe that early gong show was just what it looked like as the Jets got comfortable with the system. I wonder if it's sustainable though? The scheme has an Achilles Heel and someone will figure it out sooner or later.

It's more actual heels I'm worried about. We block a lot of shots.

 

[Gm0ney]

It's more actual heels I'm worried about. We block a lot of shots.

Speaking of...the Jets are blocking more shots this year. 15.75 per game (~5th in the league). That's the highest block rate since the team arrived in Winnipeg (I didn't check the Thrashers' years). Their average for the previous 6 seasons is 14.42 - and a lot of those years was primarily Stu, who often ranked highly in blocked shots, while the team was average overall. Anyway, a little OT but still special-teamsy.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

I see 9th

He likely had it sorted by home record.

Jets PK is 6th at home (85.9) & 16th on the road (80.4), 9th combined (82.6).

Jets PP is 1st at home (31.6), 16th on the road (19.2) & 2nd combined (26.7).

 

[garret9]

One confounding variable Dellow is not accounting for is the rise of the 4F1D power play set up. The amount of usage the 4F1D pp setup has gone up exponentially over the 2014-2016 range.

Now, that doesn't dismiss what the Jets have done with Wheeler feeding Scheifele-Laine-Byfuglien, but it is a small caveat.

 

[Aavco Cup]

One confounding variable Dellow is not accounting for is the rise of the 4F1D power play set up. The amount of usage the 4F1D pp setup has gone up exponentially over the 2014-2016 range.

Now, that doesn't dismiss what the Jets have done with Wheeler feeding Scheifele-Laine-Byfuglien, but it is a small caveat.

That's a good point (no pun intended)

 

[garret9]

The Jets PK strategy is to collapse to the middle and prevent high danger chances while allowing easier chances from the wings. Seems to be working now that they are executing it effectively.

From my own calculations the Jets relative to league average at 4v5 have:

Allowed 5 more goals than expected due to shot volume
Allowed 2 fewer goals than expected due to shot quality
Allowed 7 fewer goals than expected due to goaltending

That makes me uncertain if it is working, and more that Hellebuyck is one of the best goalies at 4v5 this year.

The obvious caveat is that both Hendricks and Tanev seem to bleed shots at a very high rate so the +5 / - 2 may not be a quantity / quality trade off due to the confounding variable there.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Here's a question for you Garret. Maurice today mentioned (it's not the first time he's said this) that part of their strategy is that the goaltenders know where the shots are going to be coming from. It almost sounds like they are baiting teams into taking those shots. That may or may not be true. If true though could this account for some of the improved 4 v 5 sv%.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

The Jets pp has a few regular features, the most obvious of which is the shot from the "ovi" spot that both Laine and Scheifele play a role in. Prescouting has the opposition expecting this and stick traffic often has prevented these seem passes from finding their target.

What isn't spoken about is the short pass from the half wall that Petan, Wheeler and Perreault often make.

Teams are so concerned about that cross rink pass that quite often Scheifele finds himself alone in the low slot just off the crease for one timers. Lowry and Armia find themselves the benefitiary of this set play as well, but don't finish with the same aplomb of Scheifele. When executed correctly it becomes a secondary source of concern and opens up the cross ice pass to the Ovi spot.

Very well thought out plan of attack and ultra dangerous.

 

[Snot Rocket]

I find it ironic that on a site that is full of click bait ads all over the place, someone actually called the Athletic "click bait"

Just sayin'

Some people get ads on websites. Some folks don't see any ads through various methods, which is bad for website revenue.

Clickbait is defined as "content whose main purpose is to attract attention and encourage visitors to click on a link to a particular web page."
That is indeed what you posted, clickbait.
To top it off, your clickbait goes to a paywall with no warning of such thus promoting & generating traffic for a website (The Athletic) from a website (HFB) that relies on advertisements and sponsors for revenue thus circumventing revenue for HFB.

Instead of posting the above and possibly causing some kind of undue attention to this fact I just tried to quietly and polietly mention this. Perhaps a DM would have been better, hindsight is 20/20.

Also, there was no verbal, situational or dramatic irony.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Some people get ads on websites. Some folks don't see any ads through various methods, which is bad for website revenue.

Clickbait is defined as "content whose main purpose is to attract attention and encourage visitors to click on a link to a particular web page."
That is indeed what you posted, clickbait.
To top it off, your clickbait goes to a paywall with no warning of such thus promoting & generating traffic for a website (The Athletic) from a website (HFB) that relies on advertisements and sponsors for revenue thus circumventing revenue for HFB.

Instead of posting the above and possibly causing some kind of undue attention to this fact I just tried to quietly and polietly mention this. Perhaps a DM would have been better, hindsight is 20/20.

Also, there was no verbal, situational or dramatic irony.

Well whatever floats your boat.

I'm not allowed to post the entire article and it was definitely something worth discussing on here IMO. How else can that happen without posting the link? You tell me. In no way was I encouraging anything like you suggest "click baiting" I was only telling people where to read the article. Frankly it was a bit insulting to me TBH but I never said anything (unlike you) because it was pretty minor in the grand scheme(just like whatever inconvenience you felt) Everyone here should know where Dellow's work is located now. He's been at the Athletic all year. Just because it bothers you doesn't mean the rest of us who want to discuss this topic shouldn't have that opportunity. I will continue posting "click bait" as you call it when I think it's discussionworthy. And BTW there is zero evidence that my posting the link has cost this website one penny in revenue. If anything creating a new thread probably adds revenue.

 

[Daximus]

I wonder what we give up for high danger shots on the PK, where do I find this (please not corsica it doesn't work for me). It seems we are blocking more shots then ever before at the top of the zone and letting low % shots go from the walls. I'd imagine we are one of the better teams for high danger shots against on the PK.

 

[10Ducky10]

I had no idea what the Athletic was until Aavco started mentioning it and I checked it out and subscribed. I wondered why Aavco didn't post the whole article so I did. It was immediately taken down and explained to me that it was copyrighted. If you like reading about sports and aren't sure, try the free month.
If not for Aavco mentioning it, I wouldn't have known it existed and it is a very good read if you ask me so thanks for mentioning it Aavco. The cost is almost negligible.
I kinda sorta collect t-shirts so this kind of makes me wish I had waited and got the freebie!
To stay on topic, I'd love to see KC low on the right side with Laine in his office on the PP.
Two or three years from now Maurice won't know who to throw out on the PP...Morrissey or Trouba? Poolman? Niku? Stanley? ... Scheif, KC, Laine, Scheif, Vaseline, Roslo, Ehlers, Armia or Appleton, Petan, Spacek???...or those old guys like MP, Little, Buff and Wheeler? Lemieux in front of the net raising shite? Just hang on, I have to go get my shades...

 

[Whileee]

From my own calculations the Jets relative to league average at 4v5 have:

Allowed 5 more goals than expected due to shot volume
Allowed 2 fewer goals than expected due to shot quality
Allowed 7 fewer goals than expected due to goaltending

That makes me uncertain if it is working, and more that Hellebuyck is one of the best goalies at 4v5 this year.

The obvious caveat is that both Hendricks and Tanev seem to bleed shots at a very high rate so the +5 / - 2 may not be a quantity / quality trade off due to the confounding variable there.

It also assumes that your input data and model are accurate. Call me skeptical that the data on shot quality is reliable enough. Can you share the methodology by which shot quality and expected goals are estimated? If you have a lot of variance from expected, the first assumption should be that the data or model are incorrect, especially with relatively small samples.

 

[garret9]

It also assumes that your input data and model are accurate. Call me skeptical that the data on shot quality is reliable enough. Can you share the methodology by which shot quality and expected goals are estimated? If you have a lot of variance from expected, the first assumption should be that the data or model are incorrect, especially with relatively small samples.

It will cost you, but basically think the old xG by DTM and then add passing information (and also my shot location data is slightly superior).

DTM's model was 0.82 in sample R^2 between ixG/60 and iG/60 at player level.
All I can say is mine is larger than that.

 

[JetsFan815]

I generally enjoy Dellow's articles and tweets but him tracking the Jets ranking on the all time "# of PP goals scored from the Ovi spot assisted by a forward" seems too much to me like Dennis Beyak's fascination with obscure and oddly specific stats like "such and such player leads the St Louis Blues in 3rd period goals when the first goal is scored by the other team and he is facing the backup goalie"

 

[Halberdier]

A game winning PP goal from a seam pass, again.

The key point for the success was not that excellent seam pass and that perfect execution itself, but the quick puck movement before that final play. Move the puck, make the PK team to change focus many times so that you then can make that seam pass and that one-timer.

Way too many times this season PP1 has been static on the right wall. That is not the key to success, and was pretty effective only because those guys (Laine, Scheifele) were so deadly when executing their rare changes.

 

[Tommigun]

I generally enjoy Dellow's articles and tweets but him tracking the Jets ranking on the all time "# of PP goals scored from the Ovi spot assisted by a forward" seems too much to me like Dennis Beyak's fascination with obscure and oddly specific stats like "such and such player leads the St Louis Blues in 3rd period goals when the first goal is scored by the other team and he is facing the backup goalie"

Hahaha that’s a great stat, I’d love to know who owns it