Defining the Rebuild Thread

[Ivan13]

I see the Red Wings as the Avs when they made pushes for Hannan and Smyth. A mediocre team that's trying its hardest to cling to their once good past, instead of embracing reality and moving towards a full rebuild.

 

[Iceberg]

This is a poorly run franchise, so much so that people can't even tell when exactly our rebuild started, or if it failed and started again, or if it is/or will be starting again this year.

I don't believe even Sakic knows exactly what he is doing, or what he wants to do.

 

[Ivan13]

This is a poorly run franchise, so much so that people can't even tell when exactly our rebuild started, or if it failed and started again, or if it is/or will be starting again this year.

I don't believe even Sakic knows exactly what he is doing, or what he wants to do.

I think it's pretty clear it started in '09, failed miserably, got re-booted when Sacco got the sack and it's been coughing and dragging itself ever since. Now we're in a limbo not knowing which direction we should take.

 

[Iceberg]

I think it's pretty clear it started in '09, failed miserably, got re-booted when Sacco got the sack and it's been coughing and dragging itself ever since. Now we're in a limbo not knowing which direction we should take.

Me/us as fans not knowing the direction is fine (i guess), Sakic not knowing would be worrisome, and that is the impression i have right now.

 

[ABasin]

Hi guys, Visiting DRW fan here.

I was trying to write up a post on how long rebuilds take, and wouldn't mind your input and explanations into my rather boring timeline.

When do you define Colorado rebuild starting/ending.


Colorado Avalanche

Missed Playoffs in 07,09,11,12,13,15,16 Inbetween those times, 2 first round exits.
Key Pieces:
Shattenkirk (#14) 07;
Duchene (#3) 09; O'Reilly (#33) 09; Barrie (#64) 09;
Landeskog (#2) 11;
MacKinnon (#1) 13;
Last 3 picks are 23, 10,10 (Rantanen, Jost) So who knows there.

They have had 3 TOP 5 Picks, and some solid drafting of Shattenkirk (traded for Johnson), O'Reilly, Barrie. Yet This Rebuild is going on about 10 years now if you count Shattenkirk as a starting point. If you count Duchene as a starting point its 8 years.

Would like some input and context (I am not a Colorado Expert)... I was doing a little write up of several teams.

Colorado's rebuild began in 2009. They traded a couple of vets around then, jettisoned a HOF coach in favor of one with very little experience starting then, lived at the cap floor for years starting then, tanked at the end of seasons starting then, and therefore got really high draft picks starting then.

However, Colorado has always been a bit schizophrenic about their rebuild(s). Since they've never (literally never) been able to draft and develop a two-way 1st pairing defenseman - nor a legit high-end starting goaltender for that matter - they had to trade for those in the midst of their 2009 rebuild. Neither was in the system in 2009, and the organization had never once successfully drafted and developed them, so......... they traded high picks and quality prospects during a rebuild. Not an ideal thing to do to help a rebuild along, but there was really little choice, given their aforementioned ineptitude. Here we are 8 years later in 2016, and the Avs still have not successfully drafted and developed either position, though we are hopeful with Bigras and Pickard. I suppose one choice (as opposed to trading picks/prospects) during the 2009 rebuild would have been to solve that ineptitude issue, but alas....

I suspect a full rebuild - correctly done - takes 4-5 years. And to be successful, I am an open proponent of tearing it down and fully rebuilding. Otherwise, you end up sitting here 8 years later and having the team still rebuilding, sniffing outside the playoff bubble, generally mediocre in every way.

 

[Ivan13]

Colorado's rebuild began in 2009. They traded a couple of vets around then, jettisoned a HOF coach in favor of one with very little experience starting then, lived at the cap floor for years starting then, tanked at the end of seasons starting then, and therefore got really high draft picks starting then.

However, Colorado has always been a bit schizophrenic about their rebuild(s). Since they've never (literally never) been able to draft and develop a two-way 1st pairing defenseman - nor a legit high-end starting goaltender for that matter - they had to trade for those in the midst of their 2009 rebuild. Neither was in the system in 2009, and the organization had never once successfully drafted and developed them, so......... they traded high picks and quality prospects during a rebuild. Not an ideal thing to do to help a rebuild along, but there was really little choice, given their aforementioned ineptitude. Here we are 8 years later in 2016, and the Avs still have not successfully drafted and developed either position, though we are hopeful with Bigras and Pickard. I suppose one choice (as opposed to trading picks/prospects) during the 2009 rebuild would have been to solve that ineptitude issue, but alas....

I suspect a full rebuild - correctly done - takes 4-5 years. And to be successful, I am an open proponent of tearing it down and fully rebuilding. Otherwise, you end up sitting here 8 years later and having the team still rebuilding, sniffing outside the playoff bubble, generally mediocre in every way.

Great post, just one thing. Q left on his own accord in 08 and was replaced for a year with Granato in another move reeking with nepotism. Also, when Q left he said that the management thinks they have better players at their disposal than they actaully have, and looking back at it now, he was dead on.

 

[McMetal]

This is a poorly run franchise, so much so that people can't even tell when exactly our rebuild started, or if it failed and started again, or if it is/or will be starting again this year.

I don't believe even Sakic knows exactly what he is doing, or what he wants to do.

I think we're very clearly in a rebuild right now. Two key forwards are under 20, and three key top four upside defensemen are 21 or under. We traded a good #1C for futures that haven't seen the NHL yet just a year ago. It may not be a scorched earth reboot, but signing over the hill veterans aside Sakic has pretty much been running a rebuild since he started as GM.

 

[BinCookin]

Thanks for your input, updated the OP

 

[NOTENOUGHJTCGOALS]

Great post, just one thing. Q left on his own accord in 08 and was replaced for a year with Granato in another move reeking with nepotism. Also, when Q left he said that the management thinks they have better players at their disposal than they actaully have, and looking back at it now, he was dead on.

It was very much mutual decision for coach q to leave. And I think he was specifically referring to the young "core" such as wolski liles Stastny Stewart etc. That weren't any good. Boy was he right. Just shows the delusion of the management team back then. And as much as people want to believe the Lacroixs are gone, the influence is still seen. The way ROR and Barrie situations were/are being handled is textbook Lacroix. As is overestimating your core and signing washed up vets.

 

[Bonzai12]

I'd like to see Duchene mature a bit. Still think he is in kid phase, when this team clearly needs someone who is going to take over games when needed.

 

[Nihiliste]

There's been no vision to Colorado's rebuild. They've changed directions 3 or 4 times since 2009, sometimes in big ways, sometimes in small. Among other things, I can remember initially trying to build a speedy puck moving team, then completely flipping and building a slow-as-molasses D corps, trading for picks for players (Varly), acquiring rentals sensely, failing to get value out of departing players (e.g. Stastny). Top it all off with poor FA signings. We started with one flawed drafting philosophy and now have another. It's been fairly infuriating to watch.

 

[chet1926]

There's been no vision to Colorado's rebuild. They've changed directions 3 or 4 times since 2009, sometimes in big ways, sometimes in small. Among other things, I can remember initially trying to build a speedy puck moving team, then completely flipping and building a slow-as-molasses D corps, trading for picks for players (Varly), acquiring rentals sensely, failing to get value out of departing players (e.g. Stastny). Top it all off with poor FA signings. We started with one flawed drafting philosophy and now have another. It's been fairly infuriating to watch.

I just don't agree with much of what you've said when pertaining to the Sakic/Roy era of the rebuild. The Sacco years might as well be a throw away because no one in the organization had much of a clue how to do anything of value.

We haven't been all willy nilly with our draft picks since 2009. 2012 is the only year since 2009 we didn't have a 1st round pick, which was traded in a smart trade with Washington for a top end young goalie in Varlamov which we desperately needed. 2011 was a bad year for the draft we had 2 1sts (Landy, Siemens), then didn't pick until the 4th round. But outside of those 2 seasons, we have consistently kept the vast majority of our picks. Now if you want to talk about the quality of those picks, that's a whole different story as we've been fairly poor at picking anybody of value outside the first round.

As for getting value on departing players, we haven't been good at this. But in the case of Stastny we were between a rock and a hard place. That year we were sitting near the top of the league, we were going to make the playoffs, what were we supposed to do? Trade one of our best players that year, and signal to everyone on the roster that asset management was more important than making a run in the playoffs? Not sure that would have sat well with the team. Not to mention I think the Avs legitimately thought they had a good chance to bring him back, I don't think they were prepared for a team to offer 7M (a complete overpayment) to that caliber of player. As for other cases it would have been nice to see us sell off some off our aging vets to playoff teams, but you have to remember that it takes two to tango. There has to be a want for our vets, and who knows what the demand was on some of these type players.

Your UFA statement is just plain wrong, since Sakic/Roy took over. The only questionable UFA signing has been Iginla. But even then he has provided over 50 goals in his two seasons here despite his poor even strength play so at least he has done some good. Soderberg and Beauchemin were lauded as great UFA pickups by many national pundits. Comeau has been a solid depth guy and had a great year with us last season as has Mitchell (even though everyone loves to rag on him), Colborne has the potential to be a great pickup as well this season. I understand we really haven't brought in any sexy UFAs, and I understand that can be frustrating, as it annoys me as well. But you can't force a big name to come here. Despite not landing big fish Sakic and Roy have done a good job at finding guys that can help the team. Without killing all hope to sign our own young guns down the road. And they've done a great job not overpaying drastically to get a slightly above average addition like a Okposo or Lucic.

I'm not sure what you are talking about with "rentals" as we've really stayed out of the rental market up until last season, where we gave up very minimal pieces to get two guys that we thought could help us and for the most part they did. It's not their fault our two best players got hurt at the same time sending us into a downward spiral.

I'm also not sure sure how you can make a statement that Roy/Sakic/Hepple's drafting philosophy is flawed. They've had solid drafts IMO in 3 out of 4 seasons. 2014 was awful and our head scout got fired because of it.

 

[kulenova seka]

Our rebuild should have started right after lockout...no Forsberg, no Foote anymore, aging Sakic and Blake...

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I think its pretty obvious with the Avs and the rebuild. Kind of surprised others dont see it as being so obvious.



The rebuild started in 2009, we traded away some vets, got some younger players and some picks back, and drafted 3rd overall where we took Duchene.


Then, after a lot of struggling and mediocrity, in 2013 the Avs made personnel changes, and with Sakic and Roy came a retooling of the team rather then a rebuild. We already had some very nice young pieces on the team in 2013(Barrie, Duchene, Landy, EJ, Varly, ROR), so we didn't have a need to go into a full fledged rebuild at that point, but we did need to retool the team and that's what they did starting with Mack at #1. We're still in a retool phase now, and its been extended because of the Stastny leaving and ROR forcing himself out situations. Both of those things pushed the team back a couple of years in progress and that's why the retool has been extended.



I honestly think one of the major overlooked problems with the Avs and its rebuild struggles, was making the playoffs in that 09/10 season, and maybe even making the playoffs in 13/14.


By all rights the Avs in 09/10 should've easily bee a Bottom 10 team in the league. But a new coach with a fresh attitude, a couple of rookie forwards, and a Vezina caliber season from a mediocre goalie pushed the Avs from what should have been a Top 5-10 pick, into a #17 pick and a pick that turned out to be a huge mistake for the Avs.

Most teams when they enter a rebuild like the Avs did, will pick in the Top 5 or 6 spots for 3-4 or even 5 years. Just look at the Oilers, Sabres, and now Leafs. But also the Penguins, Kings, and Hawks back in the mid 2000's.




I definitely think if the Avs hadn't surprised with a few good seasons right after picking Top 3, and instead had themselves a Cam Fowler + Nik Ehlers right now this team would be in an entirely different spot.

 

[Iceberg]

I think we're very clearly in a rebuild right now. Two key forwards are under 20, and three key top four upside defensemen are 21 or under. We traded a good #1C for futures that haven't seen the NHL yet just a year ago. It may not be a scorched earth reboot, but signing over the hill veterans aside Sakic has pretty much been running a rebuild since he started as GM.

That is not what he is doing, like i said before, i don't believe Sakic has much of a plan, or at least know how to execute it.

He didn't trade ROR because the 2009 rebuild failed, it failed, among other things, because he HAD to trade ROR.

A rebuilding team doesn't lose Stastny for nothing and replace him with Iginla, a rebuilding team don't go for three years of Brad Stuart, or three years of Beauchemin for that matter, don't sign a fringe Soderberg to a 5 year deal (at least they shouldn't).

Don't trade a 2nd round pick and a nice prospect in Wood at the deadline, don't keep an underperforming 6M goalie when expansion draft is looming.

Roy didn't come in here to be a part of a rebuilding team.

 

[tigervixxxen]

I'm not going to argue the other points from Chet but the pundits did not applaud Soderberg and Beauch signings. They were considered some of the worst. I believe one if not both showed up on some "biggest FA mistake" lists. That said, they were wrong and I'm still happy with the signings. Hopefully Beauch can hold up but the first year was good.

 

[ABasin]

Our rebuild should have started right after lockout...no Forsberg, no Foote anymore, aging Sakic and Blake...

I have a new best friend.

Where were you back then? I could have used the support.

 

[ABasin]

I'm not going to argue the other points from Chet but the pundits did not applaud Soderberg and Beauch signings. They were considered some of the worst. I believe one if not both showed up on some "biggest FA mistake" lists. That said, they were wrong and I'm still happy with the signings. Hopefully Beauch can hold up but the first year was good.

I'm OK with the Beauchemin and Soderberg signings also - so far.

But a three year contract is a three year contract. I think there's a tendency for fans to be OK with a three year contract if the player did reasonably well in the first two years, regardless of what happens in that third year. And IMO, that's wrong. Unless the player played far above expectations in one year or something.

 

[Sea Eagles]

I'm not going to argue the other points from Chet but the pundits did not applaud Soderberg and Beauch signings. They were considered some of the worst. I believe one if not both showed up on some "biggest FA mistake" lists. That said, they were wrong and I'm still happy with the signings. Hopefully Beauch can hold up but the first year was good.

I agree mostly, but Beauchemin literally slowed as the season wore on, and he regressed badly from his fantastic start.

Soderberg is a good player, but just not great. He's paid far too much, and term is far too long.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Sometimes you don't have the choice but to give terms or the player is not going to sign with your team. Beauch is an example of that. Iggy is another. Where they were in their respective career they were not going to come to COL for only a two year contract.

 

[henchman21]

I'm OK with the Beauchemin and Soderberg signings also - so far.

But a three year contract is a three year contract. I think there's a tendency for fans to be OK with a three year contract if the player did reasonably well in the first two years, regardless of what happens in that third year. And IMO, that's wrong. Unless the player played far above expectations in one year or something.

I'm pretty sure Beauch did... he was the best overall defensemen on the team last season and was only 2 points behind a career high offensively. He was brought in to give EJ a partner that could suffice for a while, but Beauch was really our #1 last season.

 

[AvalancheFan19]

I'm pretty sure Beauch did... he was the best overall defensemen on the team last season and was only 2 points behind a career high offensively. He was brought in to give EJ a partner that could suffice for a while, but Beauch was really our #1 last season.

Agreed. Barrie and EJ had better stretches but Beauch was overall our best D last season. He came in big for some clutch moments as well. I really hope EJ can have a healthy season and consistently play at a top pairing level.

 

[chet1926]

I'm not going to argue the other points from Chet but the pundits did not applaud Soderberg and Beauch signings. They were considered some of the worst. I believe one if not both showed up on some "biggest FA mistake" lists. That said, they were wrong and I'm still happy with the signings. Hopefully Beauch can hold up but the first year was good.

I know they made the "bad signing lists" at the time of signings, but by midway through the year most agreed they were both solid pickups.

It just proves the Sakic is good at making shrewd signings that might get overlooked or undervalued. The guy knows hockey players and it's showing with these under the radar signings. I wish he could get some bigger name players here that aren't way over the hill but that doesn't take away the fact he has been solid with the bargain bin types. Plus he landed a really good signing in Colborne this year. He's taking a risk with the two dmen, but both are low risk as both are on 1 year contracts.

I think the real test for Sakic comes next offseason. He'll have some space with some bad contracts coming off the books, we'll see what he does with that space. Unfortunately looking at the 2017 crop of UFAs there isn't a ton of quality assuming some of the big name guys like Benn, Alzner, and Burns are probably going to be locked up before UFA. A guy like Marchand would be interesting, as would Kulikov, Shattenkirk if he makes it, Del Zotto would be semi interesting, Oshie would be a solid target. But outside those few guys it's pretty ugly.

 

[CobraAcesS]

I know they made the "bad signing lists" at the time of signings, but by midway through the year most agreed they were both solid pickups.

It just proves the Sakic is good at making shrewd signings that might get overlooked or undervalued. The guy knows hockey players and it's showing with these under the radar signings. I wish he could get some bigger name players here that aren't way over the hill but that doesn't take away the fact he has been solid with the bargain bin types. Plus he landed a really good signing in Colborne this year. He's taking a risk with the two dmen, but both are low risk as both are on 1 year contracts.

I think the real test for Sakic comes next offseason. He'll have some space with some bad contracts coming off the books, we'll see what he does with that space. Unfortunately looking at the 2017 crop of UFAs there isn't a ton of quality assuming some of the big name guys like Benn, Alzner, and Burns are probably going to be locked up before UFA. A guy like Marchand would be interesting, as would Kulikov, Shattenkirk if he makes it, Del Zotto would be semi interesting, Oshie would be a solid target. But outside those few guys it's pretty ugly.

No one will agree with this, but I'd love Marchand lol. A more skilled Downie.

 

[Pokecheque]

The Avs were met with some limited success once the cap was instituted, made some decent value additions both on defense and up front (those were actually some of the best offensive seasons the Avs had had in a long time). But things kinda went off the rails when they tried to prop things up with the additions of Smyth and Hannan. I suppose you could call what they were trying a rebuild-on-the-fly, but they finally had to admit it wasn't working and pulled the plug in '08-09.

I think the rebuild would've worked had the Avs gotten better drafting, but as it stands they had far, far too many misses. They obviously would've been in slightly better shape had Stewart and Wolski panned out.

But overall the utter failure of this organization to develop a single, solitary #1 defenseman is the biggest reason why they haven't turned it around. Ridiculously poor drafting/development on that front.

The O'Reilly trade was another setback, but one I think they can parlay into something good. It just depends on how Zadorov and Grigorenko develop. The organization cannot afford for both of them to miss.