Define a 1st/2nd/3rd/4th liner?

[BinCookin]

In a few different threads we have started to discuss that a player is a "2nd liner" or "3rd liner"

How do you guys define a

1st vs 2nd vs 3rd vs 4th line Forward?
Points?
Ice time?
Points + Intangibles (Grit, defense, FOW)?

How do we define a 1st vs 2nd vs 3rd pairing D man?

this discussion seems important in player evaluation.

Click to read more...

 

[Frk It]

People overestimate what a 1st and 2nd liner are for the most part.

This is old now, but still think it’s a good reference point: Common Misconceptions: How Much Should That Forward Score?

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

I’m a first line player, whereas someone like, say, Bench, is a second line player, at best.

 

[BinCookin]

LOL Cyborg

 

[BinCookin]

People overestimate what a 1st and 2nd liner are for the most part.

This is old now, but still think it’s a good reference point: Common Misconceptions: How Much Should That Forward Score?

Good post!

 

[jkutswings]

Take 90% of this roster.
Drop them down a line or pairing.
That's their level.

 

[Goalie guy]

1st line- Your best center has the best vision both on offense and defense, Wings are most times someone one who gets in wins puck battles on the boards, gets open can feed the puck and receive the puck and finish plays along with coming back.
2nd line guys depending on depth of the team can interchange with the first line with out much of a difference. Just a touch off the top tier players.
3rd liners at the NHL level good players may not be up to the task vision wise, skill wise, still good players but just not the best on the team. the so called complement players.
4th liners high energy, hitting shut down players might not score a ton of points but can go out and frustrate and shut down players.
1st pair D the best D on the team best in their own end, best getting the puck out, best in the O zone. same as the rest same as the rest as it goes down in pairs.
But here is the thing at this level I think it has more so to do with chemistry on the top 2 lines than any thing else.

 

[kliq]

In a few different threads we have started to discuss that a player is a "2nd liner" or "3rd liner"

How do you guys define a

1st vs 2nd vs 3rd vs 4th line Forward?
Points?
Ice time?
Points + Intangibles (Grit, defense, FOW)?

How do we define a 1st vs 2nd vs 3rd pairing D man?

this discussion seems important in player evaluation.

For me its simply doing the math.

A 1C in my opinion is someone who is in the top 31 Centers in the league.
A top 6 guy is a guy who is in the top 96 forwards in the league.
A third liner is a guy who is in the top 279 forwards in the league.
etc.

To me this is our biggest issue. To be a good team, you need to have multiple players that rank at the top of their respective "position". In our case, everyone either ranks at the bottom, or they are in the next tier.

Take Z for example, I'm not looking at any stats right now, but I would have to guess that he would rank in the 25-40 range when it comes to centers. Your not going to have a good team when your 1C is the 34th best center in the league.

 

[TheMule93]

For me its simply doing the math.

A 1C in my opinion is someone who is in the top 31 Centers in the league.
A top 6 guy is a guy who is in the top 96 forwards in the league.
A third liner is a guy who is in the top 279 forwards in the league.
etc.

so in fantasy land say there is a league with 31 gretzkys and one Mario Lemieux. Mario would be the 32nd best center, but you wouldnt consider him a 1C? i think Mario would obviously be a 1C. Your rankings seem arbitrary to me. There shouldnt just be some random cutoff point that doesnt take into consideration the ability of the players.

If a league had Datsyuk, Zetterberg, and then a bunch of glendenings would you consider 29 of those glendenings to be 1Cs? I sure wouldnt, i would say there are two 1Cs in that league.

What if each team in the league had a 1C that was equal to each other. And then another team had another center that was equivalent in every measurably way to the rest of those 1Cs. Essentially you have 32 centers that are equal to each other, but by definition, one of them wouldnt be considered a 1C. Doesnt this sound wrong?

i think the amount of 1Cs in the league can change depending on the actual talent in the league. Sure some guys will be forced to play 1C because their team has no better option, but that doesnt make them a true 1C. I dont know how i would define whether or not someone is a 1C though...

 

[BinCookin]

So I ran some numbers because im a nerd:

Here is what i got for Forwards 2017-2018 (2 years) of data.
I have extrapolated GP to 82 (thus this works on more of a PPG result)

P.S. i used a formula similar to FRK-its link: I used player #4-7 for a good first liner, 14-17 for an average first liner, and 24-27 for a poor first liner.

etc.

 

[BinCookin]

Should note my numbers are only slightly higher "erasing" injuries.

 

[BinCookin]

data (extrapolated) stats from our players 2017 and 2018 (yes i know 2018 isnt done, i extrapolated the rest) (should have minimal error 7GP remaining)

 

[kliq]

so in fantasy land say there is a league with 31 gretzkys and one Mario Lemieux. Mario would be the 32nd best center, but you wouldnt consider him a 1C? i think Mario would obviously be a 1C. Your rankings seem arbitrary to me. There shouldnt just be some random cutoff point that doesnt take into consideration the ability of the players.

If a league had Datsyuk, Zetterberg, and then a bunch of glendenings would you consider 29 of those glendenings to be 1Cs? I sure wouldnt, i would say there are two 1Cs in that league.

What if each team in the league had a 1C that was equal to each other. And then another team had another center that was equivalent in every measurably way to the rest of those 1Cs. Essentially you have 32 centers that are equal to each other, but by definition, one of them wouldnt be considered a 1C. Doesnt this sound wrong?

i think the amount of 1Cs in the league can change depending on the actual talent in the league. Sure some guys will be forced to play 1C because their team has no better option, but that doesnt make them a true 1C. I dont know how i would define whether or not someone is a 1C though...

But there would never be a league with 31 Gretzky's and one Lemieux, and if there was, then yes, a center who is the 32nd best center in the league would not be a 1C.
I don't understand why you are using the word arbitrary. Arbitrary means I am basing what I am saying on a random choice rather than any reason. I am litteraly giving you a specific criteria. You can disagree and that's totally cool, but you are using "arbitrary" out of context.

Based on your second comment, I think where you and I differ, is I think you are are considering a 1C an elite center, I am not. I consider a 1C, a player who has the skill set to be the top center on an NHL team. Since there are 31 teams, the top 31 Centers are 1C.
"Elite" centers IMO are based on skill set, and in that context I would consider Lemieux (based on your analogy) an elite center in said fantasy land.

 

[Pavels Dog]

1st line: 50+ points
2nd line: 40-50 points
3rd line: 20-40 points
4th line: 10-20 points

Pretty simplified this is how I look at it. In reality it’s harder to define.

 

[NickH8]

In a few different threads we have started to discuss that a player is a "2nd liner" or "3rd liner"

How do you guys define a

1st vs 2nd vs 3rd vs 4th line Forward?
Points?
Ice time?
Points + Intangibles (Grit, defense, FOW)?

How do we define a 1st vs 2nd vs 3rd pairing D man?

this discussion seems important in player evaluation.

It's mostly arbitrary. In my opinion chemistry matters more than if a player is more skilled than the players "below" him. The Penguins always have Crosby, Malkin, and Kessel split up. I'd rather have three scoring lines that are roughly the same in production than one that produces everything and two checking lines.

 

[Redder Winger]

Justin Abdelkader is a what?
He's spent most of the year on line 3. He's fifth among team forwards with 155 minutes on the powerplay though - even though he's missed 7 games or so.
So really he's 3rd in PP icetime at 2:20 per game.

At 5 on 5, he's playing 12:35/game -- 9th on the team. He's sixth in PK time at 1:24. Overall he's 5th at 16:41. So you tell me? Is Abdelkader a 3rd liner?

How many other NHL 3rd liners are 3rd on their team in powerplay points?

 

[kliq]

Justin Abdelkader is a what?
He's spent most of the year on line 3. He's fifth among team forwards with 155 minutes on the powerplay though - even though he's missed 7 games or so.
So really he's 3rd in PP icetime at 2:20 per game.

At 5 on 5, he's playing 12:35/game -- 9th on the team. He's sixth in PK time at 1:24. Overall he's 5th at 16:41. So you tell me? Is Abdelkader a 3rd liner?

How many other NHL 3rd liners are 3rd on their team in powerplay points?

I wonder where Holmstrom landed. He would probably match that criteria.

 

[Henkka]

Take 90% of this roster.
Drop them down a line or pairing.
That's their level.

Pretty much.

I'll take a 1st line from Nashville:

Forsberg - Johansen - Arvidsson
Nyquist - Zetterberg - Mantha
Athanasiou - Larkin - Abdelkader
Bertuzzi - Nielsen - Svechnikov
(Helm - Glendening - Frk)
(Booth, Witkowski)

Ekholm - Subban
Dekeyser - Green
Ericsson - Daley

Of course not possible with cap, but informative.

 

[BinCookin]

My General Summary on points per line for forwards would be this.

	1	2	3
C	85-60	55-45	40-30
W	75-55	50-40	35-25

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[kliq]

Pretty much.

I'll take a 1st line from Nashville:

Forsberg - Johansen - Arvidsson
Nyquist - Zetterberg - Mantha
Athanasiou - Larkin - Abdelkader
Bertuzzi - Nielsen - Svechnikov
(Helm - Glendening - Frk)
(Booth, Witkowski)

Ekholm - Subban
Dekeyser - Green
Ericsson - Daley

Of course not possible with cap, but informative.

That's exactly what we are missing. You add those top lines, and we have a very very good team.

 

[Redder Winger]

I wonder where Holmstrom landed. He would probably match that criteria.

Holmstrom was almost always on Line 1-2

2007-08 - Holmstrom was 4th in forward TOI at 5 on 5.
Datsyuk 13:29
Zetterbeg 13:28
Filppula 12:27
Holmstrom 12:26

In PP Icetime
Zetterberg 4:25
Holmstrom 4:13
Datsyuk 4:13

 

[Redder Winger]

My General Summary on points per line for forwards would be this.

	1	2	3
C	85-60	55-45	40-30
W	75-55	50-40	35-25

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Points are kind of useless since they're predicated on PP usage.

Lines are used at 5 on 5.
So I'd look at 5 on 5 ice time and 5 on 5 points

On the Red Wings here's 5 on 5 icetime/game

Top line
Zetterberg 15:39 (more than he played in f***ing 2008)
Nyquist 14:26
Larkin 14:26
-----2nd Line---
Mantha 13:59
Tatar 13:21
Helm 12:42
--- 3rd line ---
Bertuzzi 12"11
Abdelkader 12:10
Athanasiou 12:10
Nielsen 12:09
---4th line---
Glendening 10:02
Frk 7:36
Svechnikov 7:36

In terms of points:

---first line--
Larkin 37
Mantha 31
Zetterberg 31
-------2nd line--
Nyquist 27
Athanasiou 25
Abdelkader 23
---------
Helm 19
Nielsen 17
Bertuzzi 17
--4th line--
Tatar 14
Frk 14
Glendening 12

 

[BinCookin]

Ok but how do you compare those numbers to what an average player produces 5on5 on most other teams.

Z and Larkin may be "1st line" by your "ill just pick 3 guys thing"
but how do they rate vs league averages?

I.e. Is Larkin a 2nd liner or 1st liner based on this data... we all know most red wings have horrid production.

 

[kliq]

Holmstrom was almost always on Line 1-2

2007-08 - Holmstrom was 4th in forward TOI at 5 on 5.
Datsyuk 13:29
Zetterbeg 13:28
Filppula 12:27
Holmstrom 12:26

In PP Icetime
Zetterberg 4:25
Holmstrom 4:13
Datsyuk 4:13

I just double checked, and for the most part you are right. I manually track the lines year to year, and from what I have he played (keep in mind this is where he played to end the year):

2002 - Line 2
2003 - Line 1
2004 - Line 2
2006 - Line 3
2007 - Line 2
2008 - Line 1
2009 - Line 3
2010 - Line 2
2011 - Line 1
2012 - Line 4

 

[Redder Winger]

I just double checked, and for the most part you are right. I manually track the lines year to year, and from what I have he played (keep in mind this is where he played to end the year):

2002 - Line 2
2003 - Line 1
2004 - Line 2
2006 - Line 3
2007 - Line 2
2008 - Line 1
2009 - Line 3
2010 - Line 2
2011 - Line 1
2012 - Line 4

Surprised he played that much in 02.
I'm just going back as far as I can find 5 on 5 numbers