David Bolland

Discussion in 'Toronto Maple Leafs' started by LeafOfBread, Oct 31, 2013.

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  1. LeafOfBread

    LeafOfBread Registered User

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    It's early still, but this guy has been such a great acquisition thus far. Nonis' trade for him seemed to receive a lot of criticism on HF, not on the Leafs board necessarily (though there were a few Grabo lovers who were throwing a hissy fit), but on the main board it was constant bashing, saying that he wouldn't be able to be better than Grabo, that it was a lateral move at best, and a lot of people were saying Bolland was even done.

    However, he's played very well, being a driving force on this team with his grit and great defensive play. Today, I was looking at some underlying numbers, and I was quite amazed by what I've taken in :amazed:

    Looking at just his basic statline:
    14GP, 6G, 10pts, +5, 22.2sh%
    Plays roughly 17 minutes a game, 2 of which come on the PK and close to a minute of PP time

    Now, for the possession numbers, this will boggle your mind. I've adjusted for players who have played at least 5+ games with the team, because guys like Fraser, Kulemin and Clarkson have wonky numbers due to the small sample sizes.

    Out of all of our forwards who have played over 5 games, David Bolland has the highest Corsi Rel QoC at 2.647, meaning he faces the hardest competition of all of our forwards. Not only that, but the only players on the entire team with a higher QoC number are Phaneuf and Gunnarsson.

    Additionally, he also starts a mere 37% of his shifts in the offensive zone, the 2nd lowest on the entire team, only ahead of McClement. Even more impressive? His offensive zone finish % is 50%, a whopping difference of 13%! This means that Bolland is able to drive the play up the ice effectively from his own zone.

    And to top it all off, he has a Corsi Relative of +12, the best on the entire team when you adjust for games played. This means for every 60 minutes that Dave Bolland plays 5 on 5 versus every 60 minutes that he doesn't play, the Leafs will be better off by a net 12 shots attempted.

    With Clarkson and Raymond on his line too, this is a dominant possession trio as all three have great numbers in that aspect and really control puck possession when they are on the ice together. Clarkson will likely get moved up soon, but even Kulemin is a decent possession player so this line is going to be money.

    So to sum it all up:

    Bolland faces the hardest competition of our forwards, has the lowest offensive zone starts after only Jay McClement on the team, has the best possession numbers, is very effective at shutting down top quality opposition, plays 2 minutes a game on the PK, and is STILL scoring at a 55+ pt pace. I don't expect him to keep up his offense the entire season, but I would be more than satisfied with a 40pt+ season from him. His shooting % will likely go down a little bit, but not by a lot as some people on HF would have you believe; Bolland actually shot 15-17% when he was in Chicago, and the Leafs have shown to be a high shooting team overall thus far, so I don't expect a huge regression from him. At this point, the key for him is to stay healthy as that's been a concern in recent years.

    Also I apologize if parts of my analysis may have been a bit amateur, I'm still a bit new to 'advanced stats' and only really took an interest in them over the off-season.
     
    Last edited: Oct 31, 2013
  2. Leafidelity

    Leafidelity Oh for sure

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    I have no problems considering Bolland a core piece. So clutch.
     
  3. HappyGilmourr

    HappyGilmourr Registered User

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    I really don't understand all the praise. He's been good, effective and a welcome addition... but he's not amazing either. He's a 3rd liner, leads by example and is chipping in offensively early on. But that's all he is... a 3rd liner. I remember reading a post on this forum someone claiming he could be a 70 point player lol. other posts suggesting he could get 5 + million dollars... He's been okay he's also taken a lot of penalties. I would like to keep him at 3.0 -3.4 million dollars but if you start giving 3rd liner 5 million (albeit a good one) you are going to be in cap hell... especially when you already have 2nd/3rd line guy make 5 + in Clarkson.
     
  4. Leafidelity

    Leafidelity Oh for sure

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    You can't see why people like Bolland but you're a McClement fan? He's still great even if the scoring dries up.

    That Paul Ranger goal was a Bolland pick off during a 6 on 4.
     
  5. Suntouchable13

    Suntouchable13 Registered User

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    He might be a 3rd liner but he can play in the top 6 in a pinch
     
  6. AwesomeMatthews

    AwesomeMatthews #34

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    I'm loving it so far, we just need to see how he holds up over the course of a season. He seems to be embracing his role on Toronto since it's clearly different from the one he held on Chicago, and he's been nothing but a hard-working, team player since he got here. I can't wait to see what he does in the playoffs. If he stays healthy, continues at a similar pace production wise and keeps up his level of play then I'd say we'd be remiss to not lock him up. He does have back and groin issues though, so let's hope those don't keep flaring up. Dave is an ideal mid-6 center, on a team that needs that particular role.
     
  7. Leafski

    Leafski Registered User

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    He's playing great.

    I wonder if Carlyle will put him and Kulemin together when Nikolai gets back into the line up.
     
  8. dangleitis91

    dangleitis91 Registered User

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    I'd love to resign him. He deserves at least Bozak money, guys like him and Clarkson are really going to pay dividends if we can make it into the playoffs again.
     
  9. HappyGilmourr

    HappyGilmourr Registered User

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    Jay Mcclement has one job and it's to kill penalties and protect leads and he does his job as good as anyone in the league... Mcclement is more important to this team then Bolland.
     
  10. ObnoxiousNeckbeard

    ObnoxiousNeckbeard Registered User

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    Anyone else ever notice that he looks a lot like Jesse from Breaking Bad?
     
  11. Leafidelity

    Leafidelity Oh for sure

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    Read the OP
     
  12. LeafOfBread

    LeafOfBread Registered User

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    Thank you. Good lord, some people come in here and just post without reading anything I've wrote. As much as I love Jay Mc, Bolland is better and beats him in every single metric possible.
     
  13. HappyGilmourr

    HappyGilmourr Registered User

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    so because you write that Bolland is better I have to agree? He adds more offence no doubt, he can shut down players, great... but I can argue Mcclement is as important to anyone on this team. Where would we be if Mcclement wasn't here and our PK was still bottom 5 instead of top 5? Some people are so blinded by hot starts and the "shiny new toy" Mcclement was a huge reason we made the playoffs last year... and we likely don't without him.
     
  14. Animal

    Animal Registered User

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    i know someone that's good friends with Bolland who told me that he HATES it here. He also said don't be surprised if Bolland is done in 3 years.

    I'm praying it isn't true, but I've heard it from 2 different people. He's married to my brother's friend's sister, so I'll try to find out from him if its true
     
  15. LeafOfBread

    LeafOfBread Registered User

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    No, I didn't just write "Bolland is better, you must agree" as my OP. I gave a thorough argument as to why Bolland has been the best shut-down forward on this team so far, and if you want to you can search up McClement's stats on your own because this thread isn't about him, but I can already tell you that Bolland has better numbers in every single aspect, both pure stats and advanced stats, and he does exactly what McClement does but better.

    McClement isn't the sole reason for a better PK, he's been an integral part of it but it's been a team effort overall, combined with coaching and great goaltending.
     
  16. KULEMINakajesus

    KULEMINakajesus Registered User

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    lol he's just mad because bolland is better than bozak in every aspect of the game.

    the fact of the matter is the teams better when naz is 1c, bolland 2c, and jay the 3c. Jay isn't a black hole on offence, and i feel as if he deserves more 5 on 5 time.
     
  17. HappyGilmourr

    HappyGilmourr Registered User

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    oh well the stats must be right... the stats also say the leafs should be a bottom 5 team in the NHL... I could care less about the stats you wrote...
     
  18. Confucius

    Confucius Registered User

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    Glad he's here.
     
  19. I'd rather have a way where we retain both of them. Bolland as 3rd C, McClement as 4th C.

    I am not saying we are going to win the cup this year (or next one for that matter), but I can definitely foresee JvR,Kadri,Kessel,Lupul,Clarkson,Kulemin,Bolland,McClement as the forwards you can win the cup with in their current role.
     
  20. LeafOfBread

    LeafOfBread Registered User

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    That makes no sense, I can understand him being upset that he had to leave Chicago but why would he hate playing for his home team, contributing to their success so far and playing the best hockey he has in a while for us?

    Not to mention this:

    http://www.torontosun.com/2013/10/30/leafs-bolland-wont-join-hawks-for-white-house-visit
     
  21. KuleminFan41

    KuleminFan41 Registered User

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    Bolland has 18 minutes in penalties, I don't see you complaining about Kadri who has 12. Like you said, its still early so the penalties can slowly go away over time no? Or are you one of those who will just complain about one thing yet totally ignore that it can go the other way as well?
     
  22. HappyGilmourr

    HappyGilmourr Registered User

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    presumptuous much? My username is Bozak it doesn't mean I think he's better then certain players. The day I signed up at HF was also the day we signed Bozak, it was just a coincedence so I used it as a username. anyways getting back to the point...
     
  23. LeafOfBread

    LeafOfBread Registered User

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    "I'm afraid of things I don't understand so I'm just going to chalk it up to gypsy magic"
     
  24. HappyGilmourr

    HappyGilmourr Registered User

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    the thread is about bolland... what are you even talking about
     
  25. Espher

    Espher Registered User

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    The Leafs are defying expectations based on our stats, not the stats themselves.

    We're winning despite the correlative analysis indicating our shot differential should place us firmly on the other side of the .500 line, but that doesn't mean we don't have a negative shot differential.
     

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