Speculation: David Backes House For Sale

[Majorityof1]

I can't agree with you, Grouch. Eriksson doesn't play near as demanding of a game that will cause him to decline quicker than Backes. And if you're going to name power forwards that didn't decline, I can name several players that play like Eriksson that didn't either. Backes is becoming a different player, his physical game shows that.

I think you're underrating Eriksson. How is adding a guy who just put up 63 points making us a worse team? Who would be better than him?

I think I side more with Grouch on this one, although I definitely see both points of view. As we discussed, Eriksson is a good addition but leaves us missing a key element that Backes brings. We'd have to find it elsewhere with limited cap/roster spots. So on that note, Backes may be more valuable than Eriksson even if Eriksson typically is a slightly better point producer. Backes could fill Brouwer's role on the Fabbri-Stastny line better than Eriksson could as well. Stastny tends to do better when playing with power-forwards. That's something we failed to give him until Brouwer, and that's when he finally clicked with us.

As to the point about decline, the thing all these examples of both power-forwards and skill forwards who don't decline should tell you that it is hard to predict who will and won't decline. You really have to look at what skill-set they use, and how that skill set ages. Hockey IQ and vision age well. Speed, quickness and hand-eye coordination drop off. With power-forwards, you have to worry about injuries and damage taking their toll. Even with that, some players just defy convention.

Eriksson relying hand-eye and vision will decline, but its hard to say to what extent as one ages well and the other doesn't. Backes, for a power-forward hasn't missed a lot of games in his career to injury. But he plays through a lot of injuries. Hard to say if those will take their toll. Either player could drop off toward the end of a 5 year contract. Backes, is probably more likely, as he is 2 years older. But is that likelihood worth losing what he brings that the team NEEDS going forward. I think like every off-season question, it depends on what other moves we can make.

 

[The Grouch]

I can't agree with you, Grouch. Eriksson doesn't play near as demanding of a game that will cause him to decline quicker than Backes. And if you're going to name power forwards that didn't decline, I can name several players that play like Eriksson that didn't either.

I agree that you could name more comparable players to Eriksson. Players like Backes are extraordinarily rare, which means not as many comparables. I've observed that it is players who rely on their speed that tend to be the earliest to decline, not physicality. Ultimately both players are a similar age and will begin to decline fairly soon.

Backes is becoming a different player, his physical game shows that.

Isn't that better? I thought that's what Blues fans wanted, a more reserved David Backes. This isn't specifically directed at you, but it seems like Blues fans are upset when he's physical but are also upset when he's not physical enough. There seems to be very little agreement on what is enough/too much when it comes to Backes' physical play. His hit numbers this season are right in line with his averages.

I think you're underrating Eriksson. How is adding a guy who just put up 63 points making us a worse team? Who would be better than him?

David Backes! That's the entire premise of my argument. If Eriksson was exposed to the same usage/system as Backes I think his offensive 'advantage' would dwindle. Backes' most common linemate last season was Troy Brouwer compared to David Krejci for Eriksson. Before this season Eriksson hadn't put up a better offensive season than Backes has since 2012. Obviously I don't know who will produce more going forward but I think Backes has the advantage of having a skillset that affords the Blues more options on offense, especially when compared to Eriksson's offensive game which is already similar to a number of Blues players.


I'm not underrating Eriksson. I like him! Personally I think Armstrong does want Eriksson, probably at the expense of Backes. I just think that would be a huge mistake.

 

[Evocable Manager]

I agree that you could name more comparable players to Eriksson. Players like Backes are extraordinarily rare, which means not as many comparables. I've observed that it is players who rely on their speed that tend to be the earliest to decline, not physicality. Ultimately both players are a similar age and will begin to decline fairly soon.





Isn't that better? I thought that's what Blues fans wanted, a more reserved David Backes. This isn't specifically directed at you, but it seems like Blues fans are upset when he's physical but are also upset when he's not physical enough. There seems to be very little agreement on what is enough/too much when it comes to Backes' physical play. His hit numbers this season are right in line with his averages.





David Backes! That's the entire premise of my argument. If Eriksson was exposed to the same usage/system as Backes I think his offensive 'advantage' would dwindle. Backes' most common linemate last season was Troy Brouwer compared to David Krejci for Eriksson. Before this season Eriksson hadn't put up a better offensive season than Backes has since 2012.



I'm not underrating Eriksson. I like him! Personally I think Armstrong does want Eriksson, probably at the expense of Backes. I just think that would be a huge mistake.

From what I've heard, he was used in a similar role the years his offense dropped.

I don't think there is a definite answer to whether we'd be better with Eriksson or Backes. Both are great players.

I didn't think we'd be better with Brouwer over Oshie but we were, despite Brouwer being the worse player.

 

[2 Minute Minor]

I could get in board with signing Erickson, if that was part of a formula to play faster. But you'd still need to replace Backes' net front presence. I think the Blues have been grooming Jaskin for that, but I'm unconvinced he's going to be ready for that so soon, maybe ever.

Sounds like Armstrong has made his best offer and both parties have agreed to see what happens in Free agency. Will Backes get an offer good enough to make him decide to leave? Or will he get ones in the same ballpark and come back to accept Armstrong's? I think that's still a likely possibility.

Is Brouwer an option for Backes' role at a cheaper contract? He's not as good, but I don't see a lot of great cheap options in free agency, nor already on the roster.

 

[SteenMachine]

From what I've heard, he was used in a similar role the years his offense dropped.

I don't think there is a definite answer to whether we'd be better with Eriksson or Backes. Both are great players.

I didn't think we'd be better with Brouwer over Oshie but we were, despite Brouwer being the worse player.

No we were better with Fabbri, Brouwer could barely hit an open net from the crease.

 

[Ranksu]

I could get in board with signing Erickson

Schwartz - Lehterä - Tarasenko
Fabbri - Stastny - Rattie
Steen - Berglund - Eriksson 
Jaskin - Sobotka - Reaves

Ofc Eriksson might be best option for 2nd RW, but I add him 3rd line that we could get Super Sweds line-up.

 

[Dbrownss]

Eriksson wanted the whole brinks truck. Wasn't it rumored he wants 6m+ for 6yrs?

A lot of money to the AARP members. Especially if we extend Steen again

 

[Frenzy31]

Eriksson wanted the whole brinks truck. Wasn't it rumored he wants 6m+ for 6yrs?

A lot of money to the AARP members. Especially if we extend Steen again

I am going to toss out an idea, and I think most will jump on me. But what about Staal. You could get him short term prove it contract: he had a lousy season and didn't mesh with the Rangers.

Would not be a bad low risk high reward contact. One year larger or 2 years at 4.5 or so.

 

[Dbrownss]

I don't care for Staal at all

 

[MissouriMook]

I wouldn't consider Staal to be an optimal addition for a team looking to get faster.

 

[Video Coach]

Hey guys, Habs fan coming in peace. Just wanted to see if you do in fact lose Backes this summer if you might be interested in Tomas Plekanec? He's really a pure centre, unlike Backes, and lacks the grit, but is an excellent 2 way guy that could be a great 2nd line C.

If the Habs were to trade Plekanec it would likely be because they made a big move to acquire another top 6 centre, so most likely they'd be looking for something like a 1st round pick or perhaps a pick and a prospect.

Just seeing if there's interest. If not, what are you plans for replacing Backes?

 

[Overkamp]

Hey guys, Habs fan coming in peace. Just wanted to see if you do in fact lose Backes this summer if you might be interested in Tomas Plekanec? He's really a pure centre, unlike Backes, and lacks the grit, but is an excellent 2 way guy that could be a great 2nd line C.

If the Habs were to trade Plekanec it would likely be because they made a big move to acquire another top 6 centre, so most likely they'd be looking for something like a 1st round pick or perhaps a pick and a prospect.

Just seeing if there's interest. If not, what are you plans for replacing Backes?

He's got quite a large cap hit and doubt Blues would take that on.

My guess is they will move Fabbri to center.

 

[Majorityof1]

Hey guys, Habs fan coming in peace. Just wanted to see if you do in fact lose Backes this summer if you might be interested in Tomas Plekanec? He's really a pure centre, unlike Backes, and lacks the grit, but is an excellent 2 way guy that could be a great 2nd line C.

If the Habs were to trade Plekanec it would likely be because they made a big move to acquire another top 6 centre, so most likely they'd be looking for something like a 1st round pick or perhaps a pick and a prospect.

Just seeing if there's interest. If not, what are you plans for replacing Backes?

To be fair, I be pretty f@#$ing pissed if the Blues did that. Why would we let the better player, Backes, go because we don't want to pay him $6M, only to trade our futures away for Plekanec who...makes $6M. I mean, I guess Plax's term is more favorable @ 2 years wheras Backes wants 5+. But I'd much, much rather have Backes. So no, that would be really stupid from the Blues point of view. I'd much rather we were the ones to make the big move for the top 6 center while you kept Plekanec.

 

[Ranksu]

**** yeah bring polo-neck in Blues!

 

[Frenzy31]

I wouldn't consider Staal to be an optimal addition for a team looking to get faster.

He isn't slow.

I would view him as a replacement for Backes, who didn't have a ton of speed. Plus he was a legit number 1 center who has declined, but he didn't have much to work with in Carolina. He is better the Kadri and quite frankly Backes.

I think he would be a solid and if all $$$$ are equal, then I would prefer him to Backes... Defensively solid, but not to Backes level. Better offensively then Backes.

Plus, scoring depth is important. There isn't much else out there- and please don't bring up Stamkos. That isnt realistic.

So we lose Backes, we get skill and size and someone who may have a bug in his bonnet and the need to prove he can play at a high level.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

He isn't slow.

I would view him as a replacement for Backes, who didn't have a ton of speed. Plus he was a legit number 1 center who has declined, but he didn't have much to work with in Carolina. He is better the Kadri and quite frankly Backes.

I think he would be a solid and if all $$$$ are equal, then I would prefer him to Backes... Defensively solid, but not to Backes level. Better offensively then Backes.

Plus, scoring depth is important. There isn't much else out there- and please don't bring up Stamkos. That isnt realistic.

So we lose Backes, we get skill and size and someone who may have a bug in his bonnet and the need to prove he can play at a high level.

He isn't my first choice but I think if you put him on a line with Tarasenko and Fabbri/Schwartz/Steen, you would see his point production jump right back up. It'd be a total Army move if we don't get a C for Shatty.

 

[Frenzy31]

He isn't my first choice but I think if you put him on a line with Tarasenko and Fabbri/Schwartz/Steen, you would see his point production jump right back up. It'd be a total Army move if we don't get a C for Shatty.

I think Staal's production will outlast Backes. I think he style of play will lead him to be healthy longer - kind of like Joe Thorton - productive past 36. I just don't see that happening with Backes.

 

[bleedblue1223]

I think Staal's production will outlast Backes. I think he style of play will lead him to be healthy longer - kind of like Joe Thorton - productive past 36. I just don't see that happening with Backes.

Neither of them are going to be very productive, even in the next couple of seasons. Staal doesn't play a game like Thornton. Thornton's top skills remain when his physical attributes slow down, but when Staal's body slows down, so will his skills. Staal will be solid for a team at a certain price, but he is going to have a Vinny type decline. Those 2 are the closest comps IMO.

 

[Frenzy31]

Neither of them are going to be very productive, even in the next couple of seasons. Staal doesn't play a game like Thornton. Thornton's top skills remain when his physical attributes slow down, but when Staal's body slows down, so will his skills. Staal will be solid for a team at a certain price, but he is going to have a Vinny type decline. Those 2 are the closest comps IMO.

That could be true. Vinny was never a great skater, Joe T. always has been. Vinny did have a nasty injury prior to UFA and had really slowed down.

I don't know how Staal compares physical (skating to Vinny). I think he is in better shape, but he did stink up the year.

 

[NHLNUT04]

Backes unlikely to re-sign in St. Louis

 

[Vladys Gumption]

Backes unlikely to re-sign in St. Louis

Except that's not what Armstrong said. He said it's likely that Backes will test the market because the deal needs to work for both sides. There's a distinct difference. The title is misleading.

 

[Note Worthy]

Yeah that title is very much an opinion; not fact.

 

[bleedblue1223]

I love bloggers...

 

[Majorityof1]

I love bloggers...

But we shouldn't be sad because we can replace C/RW Backes who we didn't resign because we fear a decline with exclusively LW Hartnell who is already in decline.

 

[SteenMachine]

But we shouldn't be sad because we can replace C/RW Backes who we didn't resign because we fear a decline with exclusively LW Hartnell who is already in decline.

From Captain to Cap Dump HOORAY!