Player Discussion Darnell Nurse - To bridge or not to bridge, that is the question.

[nexttothemoon]

Nurse had these stats all season long:

35th in ES scoring in the entire NHL (best dman stats on the Oilers)
52nd in ES GF% in the entire NHL (among the top 218 ES TOI dmen) ....(best dman stats on the Oilers)


It's easy to say Nurse was poor (when you are biased) but looking at his stats compared to the entire group of NHL dmen... he was clearly top pairing quality at ES in the stats that matter.

 

[Giggli G]

People treat the salary numbers as if nothing has changed in the last ten years. $4m isn't much for a defenseman anymore in the era of rising cap. I'd be down with an 8yx$5million for sure for Nurse. He's worth $4.5 now under new cap. Will likely be worth 6 in a few years relative to cap increases, and could be over 8-9 if he reaches his potential.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Nurse had these stats all season long:

35th in ES scoring in the entire NHL (best dman stats on the Oilers)
52nd in ES GF% in the entire NHL (among the top 218 ES TOI dmen) ....(best dman stats on the Oilers)


It's easy to say Nurse was poor (when you are biased) but looking at his stats compared to the entire group of NHL dmen... he was clearly top pairing quality at ES in the stats that matter.

How much time did he get to play with McDavid who, you know, had the best 5v5 numbers in a decade.

 

[Aerrol]

I'm shocked to see anyone arguing against 4.75mill long term for Nurse, and I've critiqued him plenty over the years. I still don't think he's going to ever develop truly great offence but he showed way more awareness this year and was already playing at a 4mill level minimum. Signing him for 5 or less long term would be huge for the team - which is why I suspect his agent wants 5.5-6 long term.

An insanely fast, physical defender who's good in his own zone is arguably worth 5.5 if he's truly reliable, and I think it's quite reasonable to expect his defensive play to improve more at the very least. The offence getting any better is the questionable part, but we can absolutely use him even if that area never comes.

 

[48g90a138pts]

I think technically the Oilers could sign Nurse to a long term deal, then do a paper transaction and send Puljujarvi to the Condors opening day and put Sekera on LTIR then bring up Puljujarvi after that. Then make any other signing(s) after that also.

 

[nexttothemoon]

How much time did he get to play with McDavid who, you know, had the best 5v5 numbers in a decade.

The old... he plays with xxx so his numbers don't count argument. How about looking at which dman McDavid actually benefited the most playing with... Nurse.

McDavids GF% at ES while playing with Nurse was better than any other dman on the team and contrary to many opinions here, hockey is still about keeping pucks out as much as it is about putting pucks in.


Here's another stat for you to try and discredit.

GF is only one side of the GF% equation... the other side is GA because defense is pretty important if you are a defenseman as well.

Nurse was 76th in the NHL in GA/60 among the 219 dmen with the most ES TOI last season. Not bad for a player on a team that was terrible in GA overall.

This is further highlighted by the fact Nurse was 18th in RelT GA/60 among those same 219 NHL dmen.



He had a great season defensively and adding to that he was top 40 in points at evens as well.

 

[CycloneSweep]

The old... he plays with xxx so his numbers don't count argument. How about looking at which dman McDavid actually benefited the most playing with... Nurse.

McDavids GF% at ES while playing with Nurse was better than any other dman on the team and contrary to many opinions here, hockey is still about keeping pucks out as much as it is about putting pucks in.


Here's another stat for you to try and discredit.

GF is only one side of the GF% equation... the other side is GA because defense is pretty important if you are a defenseman as well.

Nurse was 76th in the NHL in GA/60 among the 219 dmen with the most ES TOI last season. Not bad for a player on a team that was terrible in GA overall.

This is further highlighted by the fact Nurse was 18th in RelT GA/60 among those same 219 NHL dmen.



He had a great season defensively and adding to that he was top 40 in points at evens as well.

Still don't think he is worth 5+ on a long term deal when he has done that once. As we have seen with Klefbom, he could very easily had one great year and then go to shit.

Signing Nurse for that long at that much has a very decent chance of biting us in the ass. Could it turn out good? Sure but I wouldn't bet on it

 

[The Hound]

Bridge. I think Chia caves and signs long term.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Still don't think he is worth 5+ on a long term deal when he has done that once. As we have seen with Klefbom, he could very easily had one great year and then go to ****.

Signing Nurse for that long at that much has a very decent chance of biting us in the ass. Could it turn out good? Sure but I wouldn't bet on it

That's a fair view. Nurse does have to follow up last season... where he was definitely top pairing worthy when you look at performance at both ends of the ice... with more good seasons to come.

I think it's actually prudent to lock up Nurse to as low as possible now for as long as possible now... $5-5.5 million x 8 years so that he can become a cheap contract by year 3/4 and at worst fair value or only slightly overpaid if he stagnates over the next several years.

$5 million isn't going to buy much of a top 4 dman in 3-4 year's time.

Matheson is already getting almost that today and he's really nothing elite. By 2021/22... the cap will likely be $90+ million and a $5 million contract will be less than 6% of the total cap. $90 million/23 contracts means an average contract will be almost $4 million by then.

 

[780il]

I do agree that we don't yet know what we have in Nurse. He hasn't even played 200 games yet... so of course he's not a finished product.

The point to tying him up at something near the $5 million range (less if they can do it... but I think $5 million is likely as low as his agent would go in a rising cap environment) for long term is the same as was done with Klefbom/Larsson(by NJ).

You lock him up at a cost slightly more than current value but less than he will be worth longer term if he pans out the way he is projecting/trending.

Even if he plateaus as a 25 pt dman with decent defense and physicality... you have a Matheson type dman and likely still very moveable down the line at $5 million.

If he takes a step up though... you are laughing with a value contract that will be cheap in 3-4 years.

I thinks it's unlikely he takes a step down... but worst case, if he does and say he stays at the sub 20 pt level... well he's slightly overpaid... but he's not 35... he's 23 so you'd have a slightly overpaid #4 defensively sound dman in his prime. There are a hell of a lot worse assets than that in the NHL.

Couldnt agree more. Im happy with 8 years and anything less than 5.125m AAV. Now that Sekera will be on LTIR, thats possible, would be kinda dissapointing if they still went with a bridge now tbh. Mike Matheson is making 4.75 for 8 years, a guy that doesnt really have a chance at being a top pairing d. 8 years and around 5 million for Nurse would be a steal for us in the long run.

 

[CycloneSweep]

That's a fair view. Nurse does have to follow up last season... where he was definitely top pairing worthy when you look at performance at both ends of the ice... with more good seasons to come.

I think it's actually prudent to lock up Nurse to as low as possible now for as long as possible now... $5-5.5 million x 8 years so that he can become a cheap contract by year 3/4 and at worst fair value or only slightly overpaid if he stagnates over the next several years.

$5 million isn't going to buy much of a top 4 dman in 3-4 year's time.

Matheson is already getting almost that today and he's really nothing elite. By 2021/22... the cap will likely be $90+ million and a $5 million contract will be less than 6% of the total cap. $90 million/23 contracts means an average contract will be almost $4 million by then.

I mean if we sign Nurse for 5.5 long term that will look awful compared to the Ryan Ellis contract as yes Ellis got almost a mill more but Ellis is also worth more than a mill more than Nurse. Same with Dumba at 6.

5 mill may not buy much in 3/4 years time or it might. We have cap issues already and paying Nurse 5-5.5 long-term after half a good season is such an Oilers thing to do and isn't a great idea.

To add to this...

Looking at comparables in this range.

Slavin $5.3 mill Better than Nurse at almost all advanced stats except goals for % however that can be attributed to Slavin having no one close to McDavid on the team. Not saying thats the ONLY reason why Nurses is better but when Slavin has a better Scoring chance % and High Danger scoring chance %...it makes some sense

Klingberg $4.25 mill ($4.85 if using ch% today). Klingberg is massively better offensively, for most of their career their advanced stats are quite close. Klingberg is clearly better offensively and his defensive numbers have been on par with Nurse or slightly worse

Pesce $4 mill. Outside of this year, Pesce had much better offensive numbers. Main reason I think his numbers were worse this year was less games played. And his defensive Numbers are comparable.

So Long term I would say that $5 mill is definitely an overpay. $5.5 would be laughable.

$4.5-$4.75 is the most we should go.

 

[bone]

I think technically the Oilers could sign Nurse to a long term deal, then do a paper transaction and send Puljujarvi to the Condors opening day and put Sekera on LTIR then bring up Puljujarvi after that. Then make any other signing(s) after that also.

Koskinen is also an option for a one day demotion to get under the cap (i.e. keep Montoya for Day 1 then swap them Day 2), that allows for an additional $1.4M of season opening day cap space so they probably don't even need to delay a signing if it's someone they really want.

 

[Fourier]

Koskinen is also an option for a one day demotion to get under the cap (i.e. keep Montoya for Day 1 then swap them Day 2), that allows for an additional $1.4M of season opening day cap space so they probably don't even need to delay a signing if it's someone they really want.

LTIR is a bit tricky. It is actually in the Oilers best interest to be as close to the cap as possible before putting Sekera on LTIR.

 

[Raab]

Sign Nurse to a 5 year 4.25M per deal and call it a day. Sure you don't get the 8 years. At the same time you don't get the risk involved with a 8 year deal. We've all seen a lot of players wash out of the league due to injury. If Nurse has an injury that effects his skating he'd be done in the NHL.

 

[nexttothemoon]

I mean if we sign Nurse for 5.5 long term that will look awful compared to the Ryan Ellis contract as yes Ellis got almost a mill more but Ellis is also worth more than a mill more than Nurse. Same with Dumba at 6.

5 mill may not buy much in 3/4 years time or it might. We have cap issues already and paying Nurse 5-5.5 long-term after half a good season is such an Oilers thing to do and isn't a great idea.

To add to this...

Looking at comparables in this range.

Slavin $5.3 mill Better than Nurse at almost all advanced stats except goals for % however that can be attributed to Slavin having no one close to McDavid on the team. Not saying thats the ONLY reason why Nurses is better but when Slavin has a better Scoring chance % and High Danger scoring chance %...it makes some sense

Klingberg $4.25 mill ($4.85 if using ch% today). Klingberg is massively better offensively, for most of their career their advanced stats are quite close. Klingberg is clearly better offensively and his defensive numbers have been on par with Nurse or slightly worse

Pesce $4 mill. Outside of this year, Pesce had much better offensive numbers. Main reason I think his numbers were worse this year was less games played. And his defensive Numbers are comparable.

So Long term I would say that $5 mill is definitely an overpay. $5.5 would be laughable.

$4.5-$4.75 is the most we should go.

Notice how the Stars signed Klingberg to a 7 year deal as soon as he finished his 1st NHL season where he had 40 pts in 65 games?

That's how they got such a cheap deal on Klingberg... waiting and bridging would have been a disaster and they knew that... lock him up cheap and long.

Pesce was signed to a long term 6 year deal after only 2 NHL seasons of ~20 pts in each... they were smart enough to avoid a bridge and to lock him up long term as well at a discount knowing they had a solid defensive dman who's offense would likely grow... but even if it didn't, he was solid enough defensively that a $4 million dollar deal was decent and moveable if needed down the line.

Slavin had a little more offense in his game to go along with solid defense and they locked him up to a 7 year deal after playing only 2 years in the NHL. Again, they were smart enough to avoid doing a bridge deal which for certain would make his cap hit higher in 2 years.


We can argue the value on Nurse... but I think the bridge vs long term debate is pretty clearly in favour of a long term deal. A bridge deal is like playing with fire and with a tight cap team like the Oilers are, you are just more likely to get burnt.

If you can sign him to $4.5 million long term that's great... I'm all for it, but I just don't think that's realistic. I think any long term contract will start with a 5 as that's the rising cap environment we are in now. I think the success of Vegas (and another expansion team soon on the way) is creating an optimistic cap expectation environment around the league and that combined with the cap rising each year by several million is contributing to cap inflation. I think $5-5.5 million is generally what it will take to sign him long term.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Sign Nurse to a 5 year 4.25M per deal and call it a day. Sure you don't get the 8 years. At the same time you don't get the risk involved with a 8 year deal. We've all seen a lot of players wash out of the league due to injury. If Nurse has an injury that effects his skating he'd be done in the NHL.

I don't think you can really factor injury concerns into a contract.

Any player can get injured at any time and if it's a larger contract I'm sure the team pays to have at least part of the contract insured.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Notice how the Stars signed Klingberg to a 7 year deal as soon as he finished his 1st NHL season where he had 40 pts in 65 games?

That's how they got such a cheap deal on Klingberg... waiting and bridging would have been a disaster and they knew that... lock him up cheap and long.

Pesce was signed to a long term 6 year deal after only 2 NHL seasons of ~20 pts in each... they were smart enough to avoid a bridge and to lock him up long term as well at a discount knowing they had a solid defensive dman who's offense would likely grow... but even if it didn't, he was solid enough defensively that a $4 million dollar deal was decent and moveable if needed down the line.

Slavin had a little more offense in his game to go along with solid defense and they locked him up to a 7 year deal after playing only 2 years in the NHL. Again, they were smart enough to avoid doing a bridge deal which for certain would make his cap hit higher in 2 years.


We can argue the value on Nurse... but I think the bridge vs long term debate is pretty clearly in favour of a long term deal. A bridge deal is like playing with fire and with a tight cap team like the Oilers are, you are just more likely to get burnt.

If you can sign him to $4.5 million long term that's great... I'm all for it, but I just don't think that's realistic. I think any long term contract will start with a 5 as that's the rising cap environment we are in now. I think the success of Vegas (and another expansion team soon on the way) is creating an optimistic cap expectation environment around the league and that combined with the cap rising each year by several million is contributing to cap inflation. I think $5-5.5 million is generally what it will take to sign him long term.

If it takes that much to sign him long term you take the risk for the bridge. If he is second half of the season for most of the contract he would be close to unmovable and a detriment to the cap

 

[Raab]

I don't think you can really factor injury concerns into a contract.

Any player can get injured at any time and if it's a larger contract I'm sure the team pays to have at least part of the contract insured.

You have to factor injuries into contracts. In fact thats why I think we see a lot of GM's being hesitant to give out long term deals over 5 or 6 years. The only type of player you dont worry about it with is stars like Mcdavid or Draisaitl. Klefbom should never have gotten 7 years, and neither should Nurse.

 

[Raab]

If it takes that much to sign him long term you take the risk for the bridge. If he is second half of the season for most of the contract he would be close to unmovable and a detriment to the cap

Why not go half way between and sign him to a 4 or 5 year deal to half decent money?

 

[shoop]

If it takes that much to sign him long term you take the risk for the bridge. If he is second half of the season for most of the contract he would be close to unmovable and a detriment to the cap

Bingo.

That's why I think a bridge is best for both parties. The divide between first and second half of the season was really stark. It's quite rare to see such a level of play drop off mid way through the season in absence of an injury.

I suspect his agent is focusing on the first half of the season while management is looking at the whole season. That could explain how long it is taking to get this deal done.

 

[nexttothemoon]

If it takes that much to sign him long term you take the risk for the bridge. If he is second half of the season for most of the contract he would be close to unmovable and a detriment to the cap

Well if you want to focus on the 2nd half... I could just point to the 1st half where he was looking pretty close to a #1 stud dman... so it works both ways.

You take the season as a whole as the bigger the sample the better. Otherwise we get into cherry picking certain games and stretches and it's just one bias vs another.

$5 million isn't an immovable contract. I'm speculating (as we all are in this thread)... but I think there's a LOT of teams around the league that would take that contract on as his toughness/skating are above average and his defense is strongly trending that way as well.

It only becomes an immovable contract if he becomes the Clarkson of dmen... anything could happen sure... but Clarkson wasn't 23 when he got that contract either and Nurse almost certainly has more upside to reach as he continues to develop.

Klefbom is an interesting comparison. I personally think Nurse is the more well rounded dman and is easily better defensively with room to improve offensively. I'd feel just as confident that Nurse at $5 million lives up to that contract as Klefbom will at $4.2 million.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Well if you want to focus on the 2nd half... I could just point to the 1st half where he was looking pretty close to a #1 stud dman... so it works both ways.

You take the season as a whole as the bigger the sample the better. Otherwise we get into cherry picking certain games and stretches and it's just one bias vs another.

$5 million isn't an immovable contract. I'm speculating (as we all are in this thread)... but I think there's a LOT of teams around the league that would take that contract on as his toughness/skating are above average and his defense is strongly trending that way as well.

It only becomes an immovable contract if he becomes the Clarkson of dmen... anything could happen sure... but Clarkson wasn't 23 when he got that contract either and Nurse almost certainly has more upside to reach as he continues to develop.

Klefbom is an interesting comparison. I personally think Nurse is the more well rounded dman and is easily better defensively with room to improve offensively. I'd feel just as confident that Nurse at $5 million lives up to that contract as Klefbom will at $4.2 million.

If Nurse is second half Nurse than 5+ mill would be extremely hard to move without having to pay someone to take it or retain

 

[Perfect_Drug]

I want to change my answer from bridge to longterm.

 

[Aerchon]

Well if you want to focus on the 2nd half... I could just point to the 1st half where he was looking pretty close to a #1 stud dman... so it works both ways.

You take the season as a whole as the bigger the sample the better. Otherwise we get into cherry picking certain games and stretches and it's just one bias vs another.

$5 million isn't an immovable contract. I'm speculating (as we all are in this thread)... but I think there's a LOT of teams around the league that would take that contract on as his toughness/skating are above average and his defense is strongly trending that way as well.

It only becomes an immovable contract if he becomes the Clarkson of dmen... anything could happen sure... but Clarkson wasn't 23 when he got that contract either and Nurse almost certainly has more upside to reach as he continues to develop.

Klefbom is an interesting comparison. I personally think Nurse is the more well rounded dman and is easily better defensively with room to improve offensively. I'd feel just as confident that Nurse at $5 million lives up to that contract as Klefbom will at $4.2 million.

Klefbom, after this last year, is not as "valuable" as Nurse. A stitch in time where Nurse had more good than bad and visa versa for Klefbom.

Many defensemen dont truly hit thier top end until 28. So both defensemen have time to improve and get more consistent but niether at this point should be considered locks to be top pairing types. Both have not so suspiciously had career years while playing with an Uber shutdown defenseman in Larsson. Playing with Larsson covers up a lot of warts and allows more freedom to be more offensive.

Take away Larsson and both are number 3/4/5 level defenders. Sometimes not even that... Nurse was legitimately terrible at the worlds without Larsson and Larsson was awesome. Larsson was even playing with one of the worst defensive defenseman in the entire nhl last regular season. OEL had a career -28 year and at one point was leading the league in minus.

Nurse, primarily due to one recent good year with Larsson and inflation, is due to make anywhere from 4.5 to 5.5 on a long term 8ish year deal.

I like bridge deals better because I believe players develop better with a greater monetary incentive to be better. In a cap world however, if you have the data and proper self motivating/competitive type of player, you take advantage of a long term deal and lower cap hit.

Really fine with either for Nurse but if he gets a long term deal I really hope he comes in South of 5 mill per. Risk goes up the more you pay him.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Klefbom, after this last year, is not as "valuable" as Nurse. A stitch in time where Nurse had more good than bad and visa versa for Klefbom.

Many defensemen dont truly hit thier top end until 28. So both defensemen have time to improve and get more consistent but niether at this point should be considered locks to be top pairing types. Both have not so suspiciously had career years while playing with an Uber shutdown defenseman in Larsson. Playing with Larsson covers up a lot of warts and allows more freedom to be more offensive.

Take away Larsson and both are number 3/4/5 level defenders. Sometimes not even that... Nurse was legitimately terrible at the worlds without Larsson and Larsson was awesome. Larsson was even playing with one of the worst defensive defenseman in the entire nhl last regular season. OEL had a career -28 year and at one point was leading the league in minus.

Nurse, primarily due to one recent good year with Larsson and inflation, is due to make anywhere from 4.5 to 5.5 on a long term 8ish year deal.

I like bridge deals better because I believe players develop better with a greater monetary incentive to be better. In a cap world however, if you have the data and proper self motivating/competitive type of player, you take advantage of a long term deal and lower cap hit.

Really fine with either for Nurse but if he gets a long term deal I really hope he comes in South of 5 mill per. Risk goes up the more you pay him.

I don't disagree with much there.

I agree that Larsson makes his D partners better and allows them room to do more offensively.

Larsson is CLEARLY a top pairing dman imo even though many will say he's not... they'll say he's just a solid 2nd pairing dmen etc because he doesn't have the offense.

Stick him with any halfway decent offensive dman though and that pairing flourishes and improves and that's the mark of an exceptionally good dman.. not just what they do themselves... but what they allow others to do as well.

Larsson will help Bouchard as well if/when he's paired with him (yes I know they are both righties) and will allow him to likely excel offensively as he gets his feet under him at the NHL level.

I also agree that $5 million is obviously preferable to $5.5 million and obviously $4.5 million is even better... but in the long run, a locked in (and improving) Nurse at ~$5 million (give or take) is a solid contract and Larsson will be here on the Oilers in that rock solid anchor role going forward for whomever he plays with... Klefbom/Nurse.