Dany Heatley's "what if" career

[Big Phil]

Okay, I don't know about the rest of you, but I remember Heatley in 2003 as the more take control type than afterwards. Lots of it I think had to do with his car crash in 2003 that claimed Dan Snyder's life. Look at him in Atlanta. He wins the Calder in 2002, he comes in and ignores the sophomore jinx the year after, puts up 89 points, scores those 4 goals in the All-Star game and to put it in perspective in the summer of 2003 in a rare chance I joined a hockey pool I picked Heatley #1 overall. The Hockey News had him on the cover basically calling him the future best player in the NHL. Honestly, this was what was happening then.

Then the crash happened and I think it changed everything. He comes back after his own major injury and scored 25 points in 31 games at the end of the year. While he did well winning a Gold in the Worlds in 2004 he looked completely lost in the 2004 World Cup. Then the lockout happened, then the trade to Ottawa. He had back to back 50 goal and 100+ point seasons on that great Pizza line. You figure he's on his way to the HHOF right? Who wouldn't? But then he leaves Ottawa, has a pretty good year in his first with San Jose in 2010 and then fizzled and was finished by 2014.

Here is where I say the difference was. I know his first 2-3 years in Ottawa were great. The Hossa trade looked like a win for Ottawa at the time. But there was a change compared to him as a Thrasher. In Atlanta in 2003 he was a take charge guy. He was like this as a rookie, even as a junior in the WJC. He carried the puck, he rushed with confidence and he had that great laser shot. In Ottawa he basically turned into a player that benefitted more from being in the right spot at the right time and having a good centre (Spezza) feed him the puck. Thornton did this to him in San Jose too. It masked a lot of the problems I think he had. He wasn't explosive anymore and wasn't the type of player who carried the puck in as much. Still good seasons, but wasn't as good as his stats showed.

So my question is, what happens to his career in Atlanta - or wherever overall - without the crash? I honestly think he was well on his way to having a career that would have made him easily the best winger outside of Ovechkin in his era.

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[Killion]

No idea Phil and yes, of course..... that crash, tragedy.... no question somewhat derailed what had been a much more promising career than what actually transpired thereafter. That event in some ways as well derailing the franchise itself, something from which they never fully recovered though clearly the honest effort wasnt really there as the Atlanta Spirit Group (despite mouthing platitudes to the opposite) wanted that team gone from the building & market before they'd even closed the sale..... So, if one imagines that accident doesnt happen I dont know that the Thrashers fortunes as a team wouldve changed much at all given ownerships then hidden agenda... though I do believe that yes, Heatley's career could well have arc'd as it had promised to do coming out of Junior, as a rookie & so on.

 

[mrhockey193195]

I could be wrong, but I believe he lost a lot of footspeed after the crash and subsequent surgeries. Everyone seems to remember him always being slow as molasses, and therefore only adding value as a sniper off the wing, but in Atlanta (along the lines of your point that he was more of a "take charge" player) I remember him being much more quick and agile on his feet. To use a bad analogy, he changed from 1995 Jagr to 2005 Jagr overnight.

I think without the crash, he still is a player that drives the offense and could be the centerpiece of a team. Without the support and chemistry from the Pizza line, he maybe doesn't reach the same offensive heights, but I see him as a 70+ point player up until his mid thirties.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

dany heatley was a fantastic young player, but i wonder if we overrated him because of that spectacular all-star game. that one goal where roenick had to pick his jaw up off the floor was unforgettable. and it’s not like many of us watched too many thrashers games.

heatley was mobile and carried the puck well, but he wasn’t kovalchuk in those respects. from what i remember his physicality was also probably overstated due to him being canadian and being directly compared to kovalchuk. i think ppl talked about him like he was or was going to become the player jamie benn is.

but i saw him as more one dimensional: a really good goal scoring winger who wouldn’t shy away from contact but not a good defensive player (yes, he was young, tbf) and not a guy who impose his will physically.

part of me even wonders if the injury maybe actually forced heatley to really hone in on the one thing he was really really good at and that the pizza line heatley was his best self, even if he wasn’t dynamic almost at all.

 

[JackSlater]

Hard to say. I never thought that Heatley was better than Kovalchuk in Atlanta, so I'm not convinced that he does any better than Kovalchuk did down there even if healthy. Without the crash and injury I have to assume that Heatley has an elite season in 2004. I also assume that he stays in Atlanta following the lockout. A healthy Heatley was probably a better offensive player than Hossa, but it's close enough that I think we can guess what his production would have been, though probably a few more goals and maybe fewer assists. I don't know that post-injury Heatley playing with Spezza and Alfredsson (and then Thornton) is much worse off than healthy Heatley in Atlanta, as a great line or playmaker can compensate somewhat for lost mobility. The NHL was becoming a faster league so Heatley was always going to fade but I imagine that he would have aged much more gracefully with a good knee. There's no reason that a player with Heatley's size and shot couldn't have scored 20+ goals each season over the past few years if he'd had any sort of mobility left.

Overall I'd say that the accident and its effects, both mental and physical, changed Heatley from a likely HHOF type player to just an all star. Give Heatley a healthy and elite 2004 season have him age more gracefully and we're likely looking at a player with over 500 goals, 1000 points and a very strong international resume.

 

[Big Phil]

I could be wrong, but I believe he lost a lot of footspeed after the crash and subsequent surgeries. Everyone seems to remember him always being slow as molasses, and therefore only adding value as a sniper off the wing, but in Atlanta (along the lines of your point that he was more of a "take charge" player) I remember him being much more quick and agile on his feet. To use a bad analogy, he changed from 1995 Jagr to 2005 Jagr overnight.

I think without the crash, he still is a player that drives the offense and could be the centerpiece of a team. Without the support and chemistry from the Pizza line, he maybe doesn't reach the same offensive heights, but I see him as a 70+ point player up until his mid thirties.

I think he did for sure too. I can't find draft previews from 2000 but while he wasn't talked about with blinding speed I never remember him as being slow. I remember seeing him on the WJC and his early years with Atlanta. He was never slow that I remember at all. I think that accident definitely took away some speed. I just wish I could see some old clips of him as a Thrasher, there aren't many.

 

[tony d]

He had a good career but that crash really set him back. Didn't do himself any favors by the way he left the Sens.

 

[Troubadour]

He sorta looked like someone who should have played in the 70s. Can't explain why.

I liked him because of the shot and his great hockey smile and also the fact he seemed to know when to score. He also had a certain charisma and what I would describe as a strong personality. By which I mean he was being himself a lot.

Unfortunately, there were signs his diet and training may not always be very pro-athlete-like, which probably contributed to his fast decline.

I think he definitely had that extra something, whatever it is, that would have led to a HoF career under a bit different circumstances, one of them being a life without that life-and-a-half-taking accident.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

I don't know that post-injury Heatley playing with Spezza and Alfredsson (and then Thornton) is much worse off than healthy Heatley in Atlanta, as a great line or playmaker can compensate somewhat for lost mobility.

i think marc savard + heatley, and him setting up on the pp opposite kovalchuk and them being a matchuo nightmare teeing off one timers, would have put up some monster totals. (though did kovalchuk play a lot of point on the pp?)

Overall I'd say that the accident and its effects, both mental and physical, changed Heatley from a likely HHOF type player to just an all star.

you know, i think if you asked anyone after the 2007 season they would probably bet on heatley making the hhof someday.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

I think he's probably the 2nd best winger of his generation without the accident.

Before the accident, he played with a hunger that he never looked like he had again

.And yes vadim, Kovalchuk usually played point on the PP in Atlanta (and NJ).

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

I think he's probably the 2nd best winger of his generation without the accident.

Before the accident, he played with a hunger that he never looked like he had again

.And yes vadim, Kovalchuk usually played point on the PP in Atlanta (and NJ).

you have a healthy heatley over kovalchuk? wow.

i guess it’s impossible to know how heatley turns out between the ears without what happened, but i do think that his defensive deficiencies would not have been addresed in atlanta. the effort stuff, idk. was he always a lazy sulker, or did that come later? i honestly don’t remember.

 

[TheBradyBunch]

One thing that I don't think anyone has mentioned thus far is his eye injury during the lockout. IMO that had perhaps an equally significant effect on him as his mental and physical injuries from the accident.

 

[Neutrinos]

Who had the more disappointing career, Heatley or Nash?

Both were pegged as future Hall of Famers early in their careers

 

[Sticks and Pucks]

Considering how well Kovalchuk did in 03-04 with so little help, a healthy Heatley probably puts the two of them 1-2 in NHL scoring and probably 1-2 in goals too. Considering how wide open the Hart Trophy race was that year, if Heatley could have helped the Thrashers make the playoffs that year, he could probably have won the Hart that year. That tandem along with Marc Savard post lockout would undoubtedly made them the best line in hockey. I wonder if the Thrashers would still be in Atlanta. Hossa was good, but pre-accident Heatley was something else.

 

[JackSlater]

you know, i think if you asked anyone after the 2007 season they would probably bet on heatley making the hhof someday.

Even in 2010 I would have given him good odds. His deterioration had begun though. His scoring slipped in 2009 and his bounce back in 2010 was probably largely a product of Thornton. I remember that he looked really slow in San Jose and I would say that he was Canada's worst healthy forward at the Olympics.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

I once remember an article (or maybe it was TV commentator) saying that Heatley and Kovalchuk had the potential to become the Trottier and Bossy of their generation. Obviously that didn't pan out. Kovalchuk/Bossy is a decent comparison, but even before the accident, I never saw Heatley turning into the all-around player that Trottier was.

 

[Killion]

I once remember an article (or maybe it was TV commentator) saying that Heatley and Kovalchuk had the potential to become the Trottier and Bossy of their generation. Obviously that didn't pan out. Kovalchuk/Bossy is a decent comparison, but even before the accident, I never saw Heatley turning into the all-around player that Trottier was.

Yeah. They got the Bossy comparison ok but even at that a bit off.... but Trottier? Not seeing it. Not out of Jr nor as a Rookie. Not even close to the same type of player in terms of style, temperament.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

poor man’s naslund and bertuzzi is more like it maybe?

i was going through the scoring logs and they did play on the same line quite a bit. that surprised me because kovalchuk rarely played on a line with hossa.

ferraro centered them a lot in their rookie year, and up to the game kovalchuk got injured for the rest of the season they were neck in neck in scoring, heatley had one more point, kovalchuk had nine more goals.

then they were together for most of the first half of their second year, mostly with patrik stefan. they were neck and neck in points again, this time kovalchuk ahead by one point, but with double the goals. then they put heatley with savard and kozlov on january 13 and heatley doubles kovalchuk in goals the rest of the way, while putting up more than 20 more points. but man, who was left for kovy to play with?

 

[puckpilot]

Ferraro, who played with Heatley in Atl, does a regular spot on a radio station where I live. He was asked about Heatley and his decline, and he said Heatley was never the best skater or the most fleet of foot even in his young days. And as the years went on, Heatley never bothered to work on his skating to keep ahead of father time. Thus as the youthful enthusiasm and young legs started to fade, so did his ability to get open to use his world class shot.

Ferraro basically said at the end, Heatley still had the shot, but not the ability to get open to use it anymore.

 

[Neutrinos]

You'd think Heatley could still be a valuable powerplay specialist

 

[Asheville]

High offensive IQ. At the conclusion of the '02-'03 season, he was pegged as a star on the rise. The Snyder accident dramatically derailed Heatley's career. I think he'd be a HHOFer had he not made that stupid decision to speed.

 

[Killion]

High offensive IQ. At the conclusion of the '02-'03 season, he was pegged as a star on the rise. The Snyder accident dramatically derailed Heatley's career. I think he'd be a HHOFer had he not made that stupid decision to speed.

Yeah. Pelle Lindbergh another with even more tragic consequences.

 

[nhlfan79]

I watched every game Heatley played in Atlanta. He was a natural born team leader and easily destined to wear the "C" for a long time in Atlanta, but for the accident. His game was never about speed; it was about lowering the shoulder and power driving to the net. He was John LeClair Part Two, but with much better hands.

The accident obviously took a physical toll on his body, but his conduct following it revealed a lot of questionable character issues as well. From the way he approached his vehicular-manslaughter case (looking to avoid all legal responsibility when, at the time, there was a very real possibility of him spending many years in jail); to his demand to be outright released from his Thrashers contract; to the fact he never did any of his ordered community service here in Atlanta (a sentence that itself was widely criticized locally as grossly preferential treatment for a high-profile athlete); to his demand for a trade without regard to the impact it would have on the franchise's operations and growth. In every respect, he played it the worst way possible. By the time he left here, he'd squandered any goodwill or sympathy he would've otherwise gotten, and left with the reputation of a petulant, entitled arse.

We got Hossa in his prime in return, who was the best all-around player the franchise ever had, period.

 

[Tarantula]

Throwing this out there but perhaps the accident and death of Snyder nipped away at him. Surviving a bad accident like that one leaves much more then just the physical ails, let alone when one has caused the death of another. I know someone who had a similar accident by himself and was never quite the same, anxious, pensive, somewhat a shadow of himself before. He seemingly didn’t take responsibility afterwards in Atlanta but you never know what is happening between the ears.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

anyone else recall dan snyder’s dad taking a soft shot at heatley for the trade demand? not his last, of course.