Rumor: Dallas has had discussions about moving #3 pick

[Timani]

#3 in this draft won't be playing in the NHL next season. So, you're asking to get a legit top 4 NHL Dman for a player down the road from the other team. What teams are in a position to do that?

Of your list, Hanifin, he's still on ELC. Canes lack a top end Centre, but I doubt they roll the dice. I think all of the 3 other Centers after Patrick/Nico should be 2C, with a possibility of being a #1C. But, not a sure thing. Too much of a gamble, plus I get no benefit this season.

Muzzin, I would consider if I am LA, if I could send Gabby for Lehtonen as well. That allows the Kings cap flexibility much sooner. Straight up, it doesn't help me maximize Kopitar and Doughty's prime years which are right now.

Fowler, only if Anaheim deems he's the guy to move over Vats, which doesn't seem likely. Anaheim is contending now, so getting a high draft pick doesn't do much for them. They need someone who can play in the NHL if they move Fowler.

Trouba, how much longer can the Jets just stockpile assets without pushing for the playoffs? This would be a time to make a move to fill the LHD need or upgrade to get a veteran #1 goalie. It wouldn't help the Jets.

That's the problem with trying to move a high pick for a roster player. No incentive for the other team to take the risk of getting an 18 year old. Still have to wait for him to develop. Who has that kind of patience or job security to wait those 2-3 years?

Can Dallas upgrade their D core during Benn's prime years? Since the last work stoppage, there have been fewer than 20 players per season who have hit the 70 point mark (not factoring in PPG, just going by those who were healthy enough to play the games necessary to get to 70 points).

In 2017, Getzlaf was the oldest player to reach the 70 point mark. 2003 draft.
In 2016, Thornton (1997), then Pavelski (2003)
In 2015, Sedins (1999), then Hudler (2002)
In 2014, Thornton & Marleau (1997), then Sharp (2001)

Production obviously drops with age. The odd time an older player in their mid 30's has a great year, but it gets harder to score as you age.

I don't see a deal that would make sense to the other team to get Dallas the Dman that they want. If either Patrick/Nico were in play, then it would change the situation. I think Carolina would move Hannifin for one of those guys. But, that's not what will be on the table. Hard for a team to give up a sure thing for an unknown, no matter how high you may view the ceiling for the unknown.

Agree with most of what you say here. Nill will surely need to thread the needle to pull in a top pair LD, which I don't think will happen.

He could pull in a lesser guy either in FA, like B. Smith or through trading of lesser assets than the 3OA. I would like Murray from Columbus, but I know we want come to any agreement here on these boards for that. I wouldn't trade 3OA for him.

I also think some of the guys we have already like S. Johns and even Oleksiak could see marked improvement just through the structure of Hitchcock's system. That would help out greatly.

 

[Spotty 2 Hotty]

I would give up #3 for Muzzin in a heartbeat.

 

[CodeE]

I'd offer something around Pulock + 15OA for 3OA and hope whichever forward we take doesn't become yet another Strome/Dal Colle.

 

[57special]

3#oa of days past:

2013 Jonathan Drouin LW Halifax (QMJHL) Tampa Bay Lightning
2012 Alex Galchenyuk C Sarnia (OHL) Montreal Canadiens
2011 Jonathan Huberdeau C/LW Saint John (QMJHL) Florida Panthers
2010 Erik Gudbranson D Kingston (OHL) Florida Panthers
2009 Matt Duchene C Brampton (OHL) Colorado Avalanche
2008 Zach Bogosian D Peterborough (OHL) Atlanta Thrashers
2007 Kyle Turris C Burnaby (BCHL) Phoenix Coyotes
2006 Jonathan Toews C North Dakota (WCHA) Chicago Blackhawks
2005 Jack Johnson D U.S. Junior National Team (Intl) Carolina Hurricanes
2004 Cam Barker D Medicine Hat Tigers (WHL) Chicago Blackhawks
2003 Nathan Horton C Oshawa Generals (OHL) Florida Panthers
2002 Jay Bouwmeester D Medicine Hat Tigers (WHL) Florida Panthers
2001 Alexandr Svitov C Omsk Avangard (Russia) Tampa Bay Lightning
2000 Marian Gaborik LW Dukla Trencin (Slovak) Minnesota Wild
1999 Henrik Sedin C Modo Hockey Ornskoldsvik (SEL) Vancouver Canucks
1998 Brad Stuart D Regina Pats (WHL) San Jose Sharks
1997 Olli Jokinen C HIFK Helsinki (FNL) Los Angeles Kings
1996 J.P. Dumont RW Val-d'Or Foreurs (QMJHL) New York Islanders
1995 Aki-Petteri Berg D TPS Jrs. (Finland) Los Angeles Kings
1994 Radek Bonk C Las Vegas Thunder (IHL) Ottawa Senators
1993 Chris Gratton C Kingston Frontenacs (OHL) Tampa Bay Lightning
1992 Mike Rathje D Medicine Hat Tigers (WHL) San Jose Sharks
1991 Scott Niedermayer D Kamloops Blazers (WHL) New Jersey Devils
1990 Keith Primeau C Niagara-Falls Thunder (OHL) Detroit Red Wings
1989 Scott Thornton C Belleville Bulls (OHL) Toronto Maple Leafs
1988 Curtis Leschyshyn D Saskatoon Blades (WHL) Quebuc Nordiques
1987 Glen Wesley D Portland Winter Hawks (WHL) Boston Bruins
1986 Neil Brady C Medicine Hat Tigers (WHL) New Jersey Devils
1985 Craig Wolanin D Kitchener Rangers (OHL) New Jersey Devils
1984 Ed Olczyk C U.S. National Team (Intl) Chicago Blackhawks
1983 Pat LaFontaine C Verdun Juniors (QMJHL) New York Islanders
1981 Bobby Carpenter C St. John's Prep [Mass H.S.] Washington Capitals
1980 Denis Savard F Montreal Juniors (QMJHL) Chicago Blackhawks

Some great names, some good ones, some not so good.

 

[valente317]

There's no inherent value in looking at drafts further back than around 2005 because of the way that telecommunications has fundamentally changed player scouting. Scouting departments now have access to high quality shift-by-shift video footage of nearly every prospect across almost all of the significant prospect leagues, as well as the growing application of "fancy stats" even in the junior leagues.

This doesn't mean you're going to hit on every first round pick, but it means that teams have a much better idea of the type of player they're getting. For example, a guy like Lawson Crouse, who was lauded as a potential #1oa and likely would have been in a prior era, has predictably had difficulty translating his particular style into NHL production. Teams can much more easily identify players who fit their ideal "NHL skill set."

Looking back at 2006-2013, there was only one "bust" at 3OA in Gudbranson, and people still believe he can turn it around. Even in this apparently weak draft class, you are almost assured to land a quality core NHL player with the third pick.

The issue with trading that pick, as others have noted, is finding a partner who is willing to give up a current top6 forward or top4 defender in exchange for almost almost guaranteed similar player 3-5 years in the future, with the "lottery ticket" aspect of potentially becoming even better.