Prospect Info: D Declan Chisholm (2018 5th, 150th overall) - Signed ELC

[BigZ65]

Pronman changed his rating of Chisholm from “not a prospect” to “chance to play.”

 

[surixon]

It appears Stanley was a single player draft strategy. The last defenseman drafted before him was Niku in the 7th round the season before and Green the pick directly after him. Don't see how Cederholm is any type of trend beginning or ending? The next season the first 2 defenseman picked were even bigger kids in Samberg and Kovacevic followed by Gawanke then a big kid in Evingson. Then Chisholm and Vallati last season. Going back before Niku you see the same variety in defenseman types being picked along the way.

Go look at some of the other d picks prior to 2017. Guys like Morrissey, Green and Niku are the exceptions. We drafted an awful lot of 6"3 lumbering players with limited skill like Cederholm, Seville, Halsted, Kostelek, Nogier, Karlstrom. Now it looks like those player types are the exception with guys like Chisholm, Gawnke etc being the new template. Also while Samberg and Kovacevik are big, they also have talent and produced points in their draft years.

It also shouldn't be that big of a surprise as a number of staff in the organization like their big physical crease clearers. There is a reason why we held onto Stuart way too long and why Chariot gets a larger role then he should. It's because those attributes are still valued highly within the org and would have influenced drafting philosophy. It seems that the org has grown and now sees the value in puck movers and transition defenders and has adapted it's philosophy accordingly.

 

[KingBogo]

Go look at some of the other d picks prior to 2017. Guys like Morrissey, Green and Niku are the exceptions. We drafted an awful lot of 6"3 lumbering players with limited skill like Cederholm, Seville, Halsted, Kostelek, Nogier, Karlstrom. Now it looks like those player types are the exception with guys like Chisholm, Gawnke etc being the new template. Also while Samberg and Kovacevik are big, they also have talent and produced points in their draft years.

It also shouldn't be that big of a surprise as a number of staff in the organization like their big physical crease clearers. There is a reason why we held onto Stuart way too long and why Chariot gets a larger role then he should. It's because those attributes are still valued highly within the org and would have influenced drafting philosophy. It seems that the org has grown and now sees the value in puck movers and transition defenders and has adapted it's philosophy accordingly.

Sorry but I still think you are over stating your position as the Jets also drafted guys like Kichton and Yuen that would add to your exceptions side making it pretty balanced between a variety of defenseman types. IMO there is differing opinions around the table and the Jets make their draft board based on a wide range of criteria, one of those being size.

 

[DJBiffWPG]

Sorry but I still think you are over stating your position as the Jets also drafted guys like Kichton and Yuen that would add to your exceptions side making it pretty balanced between a variety of defenseman types. IMO there is differing opinions around the table and the Jets make their draft board based on a wide range of criteria, one of those being size.

If you can get a player with both size and skill that’s great but size alone is useless.

 

[KingBogo]

If you can get a player with both size and skill that’s great but size alone is useless.

I don't disagree. My point is the Jets have drafted a wide variety of defenseman types since 2011 and have continued to do so. Once you look at each defenseman there is no real trend one way or the other on which traits carry sway with any given pick. I see their scouting staff to be quite eclectic for both defenseman and forwards. That might say more about the size of the staff and their wide range of opinions on players.

 

[DJBiffWPG]

I don't disagree. My point is the Jets have drafted a wide variety of defenseman types since 2011 and have continued to do so. Once you look at each defenseman there is no real trend one way or the other on which traits carry sway with any given pick. I see their scouting staff to be quite eclectic for both defenseman and forwards. That might say more about the size of the staff and their wide range of opinions on players.

There has been a change toward mobile puck moving D since the Stanley pick and that’s a fact. All we can do now is cross our fingers and hope Stanley is more than a 6/7 but the odds aren’t very good.

 

[Imcanadianeh]

There has been a change toward mobile puck moving D since the Stanley pick and that’s a fact. All we can do now is cross our fingers and hope Stanley is more than a 6/7 but the odds aren’t very good.

Fun fact. Just because you state it and add “and that’s a fact” doesn’t actually make it true.

 

[DJBiffWPG]

Fun fact. Just because you state it and add “and that’s a fact” doesn’t actually make it true.

Look at who they have drafted and the shift that’s happened in the NHL.

 

[garret9]

Fun fact. Just because you state it and add “and that’s a fact” doesn’t actually make it true.

I can make it a fact, sort of...

"Me and a guy I work with were talking about you yesterday and how you've been bang on. He's sick of drafting low scoring D and cited you lol."

"I've made headway with other guys on staff. You'll see us drafting defenders you like this coming draft I bet."

Both of these were texts/dms from late-2016/early-2017 from different members of the Jets' organization.

 

[Huffer]

I can make it a fact, sort of...

"Me and a guy I work with were talking about you yesterday and how you've been bang on. He's sick of drafting low scoring D and cited you lol."

"I've made headway with other guys on staff. You'll see us drafting defenders you like this coming draft I bet."

Both of these were texts/dms from late-2016/early-2017 from different members of the Jets' organization.

Can you please work some magic now and get Niku in the lineup?

Thanks.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Our D looks like it could be our strength in the future. These prospects seem better than Chariot Morrow and Myers

Chisholm sounds great but - a little perspective: Morrow was taken 23 OA, he scored over a ppg in his D+1 year. Myers was drafted 12th OA, he didn't score quite ppg pace in D+1, but he won the Calder in D+2. These guys looked very, very good at a similar stage in their careers. Chiarot was a 4th round pick. He has outperformed his draft position just by making it to the NHL.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It appears Stanley was a single player draft strategy. The last defenseman drafted before him was Niku in the 7th round the season before and Green the pick directly after him. Don't see how Cederholm is any type of trend beginning or ending? The next season the first 2 defenseman picked were even bigger kids in Samberg and Kovacevic followed by Gawanke then a big kid in Evingson. Then Chisholm and Vallati last season. Going back before Niku you see the same variety in defenseman types being picked along the way.

Agree that Cederholm doesn't belong in the same conversation. He isn't even particularly big, 6'3. He has just about zero offense but is supposed to have some defensive ability. I doubt it is much because if he had nothing but a decent break out pass he would pick up an occasional assist.

Edit: It isn't that being big is a bad thing. It is only that it doesn't substitute for skill.

 

[garret9]

Yeah?

What about the panicked narrative about Comeau/Hillier after Garret's week-long Stanley hatchet job? Was that educated? Because it's still lingering.

Panicked narrative? I just pointed out that Hillier was the strongest proponent for Stanley and Cederholm, and that the latter didn't even have the Jets' Euroscout's blessing.

That doesn't mean Hillier is a bad scout or anything... He also was a big Roslovic proponent.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't disagree. My point is the Jets have drafted a wide variety of defenseman types since 2011 and have continued to do so. Once you look at each defenseman there is no real trend one way or the other on which traits carry sway with any given pick. I see their scouting staff to be quite eclectic for both defenseman and forwards. That might say more about the size of the staff and their wide range of opinions on players.

I agree that Surixon is overstating his case but there does appear to have been a bit of a shift towards higher skill, regardless of size. They are still drafting big D men, but only if they also show some skill.

 

[garret9]

Is better skating better?
Is better puck handling better?
Is better scoring better?
Is smarter better?
Is bigger (without negatively impacting the other variables) better?
etc. etc.

No scout will say no to these questions, regardless of their beliefs...

What differs in scouts is two fold:
1) Their ability to properly evaluate who is better at each variable.
2) Their ability to properly evaluate which variable is more important than the other and by how much.

From my own experience, and the research of those doing machine learning testing on scouting notes, is that scouts are really, really, really good at the former, but not as much at the latter.

So, to bring it back on topic, if the Jets did change, it wouldn't be that they all of a sudden hate size. It would be more subtle, in that the relative size vs other variables would shift somewhat.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Chisholm sounds great but - a little perspective: Morrow was taken 23 OA, he scored over a ppg in his D+1 year. Myers was drafted 12th OA, he didn't score quite ppg pace in D+1, but he won the Calder in D+2. These guys looked very, very good at a similar stage in their careers. Chiarot was a 4th round pick. He has outperformed his draft position just by making it to the NHL.

Why would you do that and try and take away my cheerfulness?

 

[ps241]

Chisholm sounds great but - a little perspective: Morrow was taken 23 OA, he scored over a ppg in his D+1 year. Myers was drafted 12th OA, he didn't score quite ppg pace in D+1, but he won the Calder in D+2. These guys looked very, very good at a similar stage in their careers. Chiarot was a 4th round pick. He has outperformed his draft position just by making it to the NHL.

A few things to provide context from my point of view at least.

I am thrilled a 5th round pick is being lumped in with Myers and Morrow comp wise because they were both 1st round picks. Secondly, I can’t really speak to either of those guys as far as how rounded their games were back in their D+1 season but Chisholm sounds like the defensive side of his game is excellent right now and that is a huge plus.

Who knows if Declan makes it or not but he is a fun prospect to have in the pipeline.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Why would you do that and try and take away my cheerfulness?

Sorry.

Chisholm is still looking very promising, especially for a 5th rd pick. Its just that looking promising in D+1 or even D+2 is no guarantee. Does it help if I also mention that Parayko was a 3rd rd pick and Neal Pionk wasn't drafted at all? There are plenty more examples of very good D men who were unexpected successes.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Sorry.

Chisholm is still looking very promising, especially for a 5th rd pick. Its just that looking promising in D+1 or even D+2 is no guarantee. Does it help if I also mention that Parayko was a 3rd rd pick and Neal Pionk wasn't drafted at all? There are plenty more examples of very good D men who were unexpected successes.

Sorry not informed enough to know who pionk is. I'm not good st being level I'm either high or low so have been avoiding here and the misery after penguin game.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

A few things to provide context from my point of view at least.

I am thrilled a 5th round pick is being lumped in with Myers and Morrow comp wise because they were both 1st round picks. Secondly, I can’t really speak to either of those guys as far as how rounded their games were back in their D+1 season but Chisholm sounds like the defensive side of his game is excellent right now and that is a huge plus.

Who knows if Declan makes it or not but he is a fun prospect to have in the pipeline.

Yup, absotively. In fact, I would be happy with his performance to date, even if we had drafted him much earlier. But I wouldn't insert him into the lineup today (if I could) ahead of any of our current D. Not yet anyway.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Sorry not informed enough to know who pionk is. I'm not good st being level I'm either high or low so have been avoiding here and the misery after penguin game.

Penguin game? What Penguin game? Did anything happen? I mean anything good.

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

Chisholm sounds great but - a little perspective: Morrow was taken 23 OA, he scored over a ppg in his D+1 year. Myers was drafted 12th OA, he didn't score quite ppg pace in D+1, but he won the Calder in D+2. These guys looked very, very good at a similar stage in their careers. Chiarot was a 4th round pick. He has outperformed his draft position just by making it to the NHL.

If Chisolm was drafted by Oilers, I would say, good numbers but will never make it cause he is with the Oilers organization.

As he was drafted by Jets, I will say, good numbers and looks like he has a chance due to a great development program with the Jets.

 

[Evil Little]

Panicked narrative? I just pointed out that Hillier was the strongest proponent for Stanley and Cederholm, and that the latter didn't even have the Jets' Euroscout's blessing.

That doesn't mean Hillier is a bad scout or anything... He also was a big Roslovic proponent.

Not your narrative. Sorry--I should have been clearer about that.

Others took what you--I believe accurately--reported and began spinning this yarn that Stanley and Cederholm are the new normal. Because Hillier.

That's on them, not you, but it is still around.

(I will give you credit for turning the Battle of Stanley into the biggest conflict in the War of the Jets, though. )

 

[CorgisPer60]

Sorry.

Chisholm is still looking very promising, especially for a 5th rd pick. Its just that looking promising in D+1 or even D+2 is no guarantee. Does it help if I also mention that Parayko was a 3rd rd pick and Neal Pionk wasn't drafted at all? There are plenty more examples of very good D men who were unexpected successes.

Looking promising in his D+1 isn't a guarantee, in this you are right. There's no making the NHL until you make it. However, how a player does relative to personal history and his cohorts makes it easier to gauge just how likely (or unlikely) a prospect is to make the NHL. Chisholm is clipping along at a PPG in the OHL, while facing the top matchups on his team. He's leading his team in scoring by 7 points. He's just a scant handful of players on his team in positive double digits for +/-. Yes, I know that the stat is very flawed, but you can still get use out of it by seeing how the team stacks up against each other; there's someone with a -11, opposite of the +13 that another player has.

To summarize, he's:
- More than doubled his offensive production
- Increased his minutes played
- Is facing the best opposition each night

Declan Chisholm - Prospect-Stats

This is an excellent resource for advanced stats in the CHL. Take a look at how his stats and usage has changed in the 3 years he's been in the league. Looking at how much he's grown, it's hard to not get excited for the idea of him being good enough to play in the NHL.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If Chisolm was drafted by Oilers, I would say, good numbers but will never make it cause he is with the Oilers organization.

As he was drafted by Jets, I will say, good numbers and looks like he has a chance due to a great development program with the Jets.

How about if he had been drafted by almost any other team? I think his D+1 numbers so far say he has a chance with just about any team. The Oilers would probably trade him, giving him a chance.