Cut Down Day - What Should Happen

[Bumper]

Super hugely plus and in no way influenced by linemates, defensemen or the goalie.

Plus/minus is just that super hugely good as metric for individual players.

relative plus/minus is a thing, yes. this is the type of plus I focus on. those guys make their linemates better with or without your understanding it.

 

[BlackFrancis]

For example, if you have a guy that is a minus player on a good defensive team or a guy that is a plus player on a bad team, that tells you something about their game.

First thing that came to mind was Seidenberg on the 2011 team. The man was +3 on a +55 team where the only better defender on the team was +33.

What is that +3 telling me? Zero.

I also think that if a player gets limited minutes and has a good plus/minus (better than guys who play more and have a worse plus/minus), that says a lot about a player.

I'm sure we could get into this pretty nicely, maybe to the point where I learn something. But my first instinct is the +/- tells me far less about a player than the fact his coach plays him fewer minutes regardless of his relatively good +/-. Might be a coach thing, might be the team has better metrics than +/- to base effectiveness on or it might be +/- is identifying an underutilized player. But while I have nothing on hand, I am pretty sure more than one person has done an R² regression to see if there is anything that correlates stronger with +/- than the relative strength of the team.

 

[GloryDaze4877]

First thing that came to mind was Seidenberg on the 2011 team. The man was +3 on a +55 team where the only better defender on the team was +33.

What is that +3 telling me? Zero.



I'm sure we could get into this pretty nicely, maybe to the point where I learn something. But my first instinct is the +/- tells me far less about a player than the fact his coach plays him fewer minutes regardless of his relatively good +/-. Might be a coach thing, might be the team has better metrics than +/- to base effectiveness on or it might be +/- is identifying an underutilized player. But while I have nothing on hand, I am pretty sure more than one person has done an R² regression to see if there is anything that correlates stronger with +/- than the relative strength of the team.

Probably an anomaly? Lol. McQ was a +30, Ference +22, Boychuk +15. I’m sure I can find examples supporting my theory.

As far as the 2nd part goes, it seems like you are making it too complicated. A lot of times the difference in TOI can be attributed to special teams.