Peat
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- Jun 14, 2016
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Warning - This will be an extremely lengthy post set of posts, because of the limits on media in a post. And full of videos. And what the post about is the results of my curiousity into who'd be Sid's best right wing next season, so mightn't actually be worth reading anyway.
That's been sparked somewhat by the debate of just how important Bryan Rust - the probable favourite to be that guy - is to the team, and these two posts in particular:
At the time, I agreed whole-heartedly with ZeroPucksGiven's post. But on further thought, I wondered whether we weren't downplaying the RW's role and to what extent the line succeeded because it was given the hot hand. Also, even if true that Sid and Guentzel were the Alpha and Omega of that line last season, it didn't hold that they'd continue to be so going forwards. I dug out the following stats in reply to ZPG's post:
(Sid and Jake's line stats together)
16/17 RS - 3.50 GF/60 - 56.25 GF% - 3.66 xGF/60 - 57.30 xGF%
16/17 PO - 2.95 GF/60 - 45.16 GF% - 2.46 xGF/60 - 49.22 xGF%
17/18 RS - 1.90 GF/60 - 42.86 GF% - 3.01 xGF/60 - 55.58 xGF%
17/18 PO - 7.11 GF/60 - 73.08 GF% - 2.83 xGF/60 - 58.31 xGF%
18/19 RS - 3.91 GF/60 - 66.67 GF% - 2.89 xGF/60 - 56.89 xGF%
18/19 PO - 1.09 GF/60 - 25.00 GF% - 2.37 xGF/60 - 47.22 xGF%
There's been some big swings there. An optimist would hold that you can see the growth in Jake as a player and that last POs were an aberration and that things will be strong going forwards; they might be right too, but help will be necessary.
Between those thoughts, and thinking "Actually, there is some video we can find" a day after reading Pixies' post, I ended up deciding to do a deep dive into how Sid's various third wheels had performed with him and what might be expected going forwards.
Before I get into the nitty-gritty -
I'm limiting this study to McCann, Rust, Simon and Hornqvist. It is possible that someone else (coughKahuncough) will end up getting a lot of time there, but those are the four where we have reasonable amounts of sample with Sid to look at and I didn't want to make too many guesses on what they'd do with Sid based on time with not-Sid.
All stats are 5v5 as that's the most common scenario for the line. The ability to do Michael Grabner impressions on empty nets is valuable, but shouldn't decide who is with Sid for the majority of the game.
While I'll try to indicate where stats came from in the text, assume all possession stats are from NaturalStatTrick unless indicated otherwise, and all zone entry/exit stats are from Corey Sznajder's work
This study will mainly focus on attacking play and scoring goals; while I do appreciate the necessity of stopping them as well, it's a lot harder to find video on and I wanted to look at stats and video together.
And speaking of video, I've had some trouble embedding the NHL videos. If anyone has a solution, or YouTube links or whatever for the videos involved, please let me know. For the meantime I've included links under what should be embedded, but it's not a great solution.
What do Sid and Jake need?
The qualities of the ideal linemate for the Magician and his apprentice seem the obvious starting point.
For the most part, rounding out Crosby's line is about adding to its strengths as there are very few weaknesses to counteract; Sid and Jake are defensively reliable, play strong possession games, and have extremely potent and well-rounded attacking skillsets. However, there are two areas where I believe the line could be stronger:
1) Physicality - Guentzel's game, but he is also a flyweight and at times that shows. Crosby's a mini-tank but can still be overmatched, particularly in cases where he's forced to be static and the opposition can be dynamic in their approach a puck battle. Nobody wants a goon on Sid's line but increasing the physicality is useful, particularly when it comes to
2) Zone Exits - I was somewhat surprised to find out that Crosby was one of our worst forwards for zone exits with possession last season. Guentzel wasn't much better. It's tempting to write this off as one of those things, but I remember the way the line got hemmed in against Columbus in Round 1 of 16/17. That problem disappeared with Sheary, but the two combined means I'm inclined to give some credence to the idea paying a bit of attention to how the third forward on the line does with Zone Exits is a good idea (even bearing in mind that Letang is usually out there with them and good at that sort of thing).
Beyond those two things though, I believe the Penguins should be looking for players who compliment the transition and cycle game of Crosby and Guentzel; ideally players with good hands, vision, speed and a willingness to go to the net. Also, if we continue to give Crosby influence over who's on his line, then compete level and ability in all three zones will be important.
Jared McCann
McCann had 10 games where he was with Crosby for a substantial proportion of the match last season, which can be broken down as follows:
He was first placed with Crosby on the 2nd of March vs MON and played the next two vs CBJ and FLA there; he was moved away for a game then put back there for a five game stretch from the 10th to 17th March (BOS, WSH, BUF, STL, PHI). He did play with Crosby again until the last two games of the season - DET on Apr 4, NYR on Apr 6.
The raw results of that period was that we outscored teams 7-5. Most of the success came in the very first game, where the line had 3 5v5 goals vs MON. Most of the fail came against STL, where the line gave up 3 5v5 goals. Take those two games out and you're left with a very boring but successful period of games, which was consistent with the Penguins in general in March. Some will be saying at this point "But they scored a lot more goals!". They did, but those were ENers and not 5v5.
So how did McCann and Crosby score? This goal, the first they combined on, probably tells the best story:
In it, McCann makes the all important interception by reading where Jordie Benn will try to put the puck. He has the hands and IQ to find Crosby, whose quick interplay with Guentzel sets up the goal.
Out of the line's 7 goals, 3 came from pressuring the opposition into a mistake in their own zone and quick passing to set up a fantastic opportunity, including this highlight reel steal by McCann. This is both good and bad; good in that it displays how effective McCann's IQ and hands can be, bad in that it's somewhat unsustainable. There's simply not that many lines scoring half their goals from defensive zone turnovers. If we're talking consistent scoring, we're probably talking off of zone entries and off of the cycle.
Crosby's line only scored 3 goals in those scenarios with McCann on ice (one goal was directly off a face-off win) and McCann only registered a point on one of them; this breakaway effort:
It's a blink and you miss it type assist, but McCann's ability to spot the breakout pass quickly and make it accurately after receiving the puck with his back to the opposition net is vital. McCann receives more than the occasional piece of criticism regarding tunnel vision (including from me) but this video, and the opening one, shows what he can do as a playmaker. The question has to be is whether those videos are representative; after all, these are the successes. What happens in the failures?
And what does it mean that McCann's involvement in these goals is solely about being defensively responsible and making quick bang-bang plays, and never holding onto the puck to make a play himself? The one goal on the cycle that Crosby's line scored with McCann there shows him being responsible and diligent, first battling with opposition dmen then falling back to cover for the activating Maatta, but not involved with the puck.
It's not like one can easily find evidence of McCann's creativity elsewhere with the Pens; in fact, I believe he only had 2 assists without Sid on ice his entire time here. One of them was Blueger scoring off of his rebound and the other was a simple pass to Bjugstad. Maybe there's evidence in Florida videos, but that falls outside the scope of this research. It looks strongly like McCann just doesn't do great with the puck on his stick for extended periods of time. That could be a problem.
He didn't seem to be scoring goals himself with Crosby either which could also be a problem. The source of that's not hard to find. While McCann has a very nice release and likes to shoot (only Pearson had a higher s/60 as a Pens forward last season), he does so from unprofitable areas. Only Grant, Brassard and Cullen had a lower rate of scoring chances; only Grant and Sprong had a lower rate of high danger chances. Not getting close to the net doesn't bode well for playing with Sid at all, and might explain a little why so few goals went off from cycling opportunities for the line. That said - the line's HDCF /60 remain unchanged at 14.06 with and without McCann. So maybe that isn't the reason.
In any case, the video and stats suggest that as an ideal attacking zone wing for Crosby, McCann is a work in progress. His zeal in performing his defensive duties has helped create goals and he is capable of the bang bang plays beloved by Sid. His ability to hold onto the puck and create plays, as well as score 5v5, both look to need improvement - it is difficult to imagine him sticking long term with Sid without improvements there, particularly if Crosby or Guentzel go dry.
Outside of the attacking zone, we have to rely on McCann's stats in Florida for exit and entry, which means caveat emptor on all of this. He was one of their better zone exit choices as a forward - better than average at exiting with possession and very safe - but a void in terms of entering it. Arguably, this works out - he is strong at least season's weakness and they are strong at his weakness. If McCann's presence on Sid's line lets Sid spend a bit less time deep in his zone, that could be a bigger attacking boost than anything anyone can do in the opposition zone. Whether it does work out in practice remains to be seen. In terms of possession he was remarkably similar to Crosby's line without him except for a startlingly low HDCA/60 (which was consistent with the team as a whole in March); as a result, the line with McCann's xGF% was 5% higher than the line without, although the line’s xGF was 0.1 lower with McCann. However, given how absurdly good March's stats were, this doesn't feel sustainable.
In summation, I would suggest that McCann looks like he'd overall neither detract or add significantly to Crosby as a rule, but if he continues to improve or joins the line on a hot streak, he could be a great option.
Patric Hornqvist
Hornqvist started the season on Crosby's line, playing over 10 minutes vs WSH and MON. He played 4 minutes with Crosby the next game vs VGK. His next return to the line was vs DAL on the 21st of Nov; he played the next game vs BOS, then not again until 23rd Feb where he played PHI, CBJ and BUF.
The raw results is that we outscored teams 7-4. Most of the action took place in the first game of each mini-period, with Crosby's line scoring 2-1 vs WSH, DAL and PHI. I will return to this at a later date, but there seems to be some evidence for Crosby thriving off of fresh linemates.
Posting video of what Hornqvist offers to Crosby and Guentzel seems to be the most redundant thing I could do. We all know what he does. He'll offer screens. Hornqvist will offer all the screens. He will pick up loose pucks and either score himself (not with Guentzel there but whatevs), or he'll pick them up and pass to someone in a good position. That goes for in the defensive zone too - this isn't as impressive as McCann's breakout pass, but it still got the job done.
His best contribution to a Crosby line goal is this one though:
Something people often bring up about the need for quality to support Crosby and Malkin is "What happens when the opposition double team the star and ask the support players what they're going to do about it?". In this case, Hornqvist keeps skating until Columbus have to pay attention to him, at which point he makes a neat little pass to an unmarked Crosby who can find an unmarked Guentzel. That's how goals happen. I'm not saying that's what Hornqvist does everytime - if anything, the fact I only have one video of this for you tells its own story - but it is good to be reminded every now and again that Hornqvist can make things happen if given space and isn't just good within the 10 yards around each net. And it happens because Hornqvist backs himself. Would the younger kids do that, or would they force a pass early to Crosby or Guentzel?
It should also be noted that that's the 2nd goal that started with Hornqvist collecting a puck in his own zone and making a simple play. As the chart for Crosby shows, Hornqvist was the Pens' 3rd best source of controlled zone exit among forwards last season. There is, sometimes, a perception that Hornqvist is something of a black hole when it comes to transition play. It's justified - nobody did worse than Hornqvist for controlled zone entries for the Pens last season - but not the whole story.
Hornqvist also had strong possession stats; the line with him beat the line without him by at least 3% in all of HDCF, SCF, FF and CF shares. Unsurprisingly the line was 3% higher of xGF% too; it was projected to score a tad less, and concede a lot less. This supremacy in possession stats was true last season as well.
One can somewhat understand Crosby's reluctance to play with Hornqvist; he is not great at giving the line clean opportunities to play in the offensive zone, he can't play at the same speed as Crosby and Guentzel with the puck on his stick. But things still work there and not just due to Hornqvist's ability to lurk near the net. And the line becomes better defensively. One doesn't entirely understand the reluctance; it is frequently a better line with him there. Based on this glance, it looks one of the safest versions of Sid's line, and Hornqvist's great strength will probably make it likely to be involved come the POs.
That's been sparked somewhat by the debate of just how important Bryan Rust - the probable favourite to be that guy - is to the team, and these two posts in particular:
This is the key takeaway from last year:
Whoever was good with Jake/Sid probably had little to do with whoever that 3rd wheel was and more if Jake/Sid were bringing it that particular night (and they indeed did)
So if you're basing it on last year's results, whoever we throw on RW won't make that line appreciably better or worse
But then you wonder if Sid/Jake can duplicate what was a fantastic year- is it repeatable?
And I’d say this is where actual footage is needed because statistically Simon crushed it with Sid and I’d argue out of all three they had the worst chemistry.
Also, I think we are getting a little overboard here in the analytics. Rust and Simon both had solid stat lines analytically with Sid and Jake as a line. Just because one is better doesn’t mean Jake - Sid - Rust wasn’t good.
At the time, I agreed whole-heartedly with ZeroPucksGiven's post. But on further thought, I wondered whether we weren't downplaying the RW's role and to what extent the line succeeded because it was given the hot hand. Also, even if true that Sid and Guentzel were the Alpha and Omega of that line last season, it didn't hold that they'd continue to be so going forwards. I dug out the following stats in reply to ZPG's post:
(Sid and Jake's line stats together)
16/17 RS - 3.50 GF/60 - 56.25 GF% - 3.66 xGF/60 - 57.30 xGF%
16/17 PO - 2.95 GF/60 - 45.16 GF% - 2.46 xGF/60 - 49.22 xGF%
17/18 RS - 1.90 GF/60 - 42.86 GF% - 3.01 xGF/60 - 55.58 xGF%
17/18 PO - 7.11 GF/60 - 73.08 GF% - 2.83 xGF/60 - 58.31 xGF%
18/19 RS - 3.91 GF/60 - 66.67 GF% - 2.89 xGF/60 - 56.89 xGF%
18/19 PO - 1.09 GF/60 - 25.00 GF% - 2.37 xGF/60 - 47.22 xGF%
There's been some big swings there. An optimist would hold that you can see the growth in Jake as a player and that last POs were an aberration and that things will be strong going forwards; they might be right too, but help will be necessary.
Between those thoughts, and thinking "Actually, there is some video we can find" a day after reading Pixies' post, I ended up deciding to do a deep dive into how Sid's various third wheels had performed with him and what might be expected going forwards.
Before I get into the nitty-gritty -
I'm limiting this study to McCann, Rust, Simon and Hornqvist. It is possible that someone else (coughKahuncough) will end up getting a lot of time there, but those are the four where we have reasonable amounts of sample with Sid to look at and I didn't want to make too many guesses on what they'd do with Sid based on time with not-Sid.
All stats are 5v5 as that's the most common scenario for the line. The ability to do Michael Grabner impressions on empty nets is valuable, but shouldn't decide who is with Sid for the majority of the game.
While I'll try to indicate where stats came from in the text, assume all possession stats are from NaturalStatTrick unless indicated otherwise, and all zone entry/exit stats are from Corey Sznajder's work
This study will mainly focus on attacking play and scoring goals; while I do appreciate the necessity of stopping them as well, it's a lot harder to find video on and I wanted to look at stats and video together.
And speaking of video, I've had some trouble embedding the NHL videos. If anyone has a solution, or YouTube links or whatever for the videos involved, please let me know. For the meantime I've included links under what should be embedded, but it's not a great solution.
What do Sid and Jake need?
The qualities of the ideal linemate for the Magician and his apprentice seem the obvious starting point.
For the most part, rounding out Crosby's line is about adding to its strengths as there are very few weaknesses to counteract; Sid and Jake are defensively reliable, play strong possession games, and have extremely potent and well-rounded attacking skillsets. However, there are two areas where I believe the line could be stronger:
1) Physicality - Guentzel's game, but he is also a flyweight and at times that shows. Crosby's a mini-tank but can still be overmatched, particularly in cases where he's forced to be static and the opposition can be dynamic in their approach a puck battle. Nobody wants a goon on Sid's line but increasing the physicality is useful, particularly when it comes to
2) Zone Exits - I was somewhat surprised to find out that Crosby was one of our worst forwards for zone exits with possession last season. Guentzel wasn't much better. It's tempting to write this off as one of those things, but I remember the way the line got hemmed in against Columbus in Round 1 of 16/17. That problem disappeared with Sheary, but the two combined means I'm inclined to give some credence to the idea paying a bit of attention to how the third forward on the line does with Zone Exits is a good idea (even bearing in mind that Letang is usually out there with them and good at that sort of thing).
Beyond those two things though, I believe the Penguins should be looking for players who compliment the transition and cycle game of Crosby and Guentzel; ideally players with good hands, vision, speed and a willingness to go to the net. Also, if we continue to give Crosby influence over who's on his line, then compete level and ability in all three zones will be important.
Jared McCann
McCann had 10 games where he was with Crosby for a substantial proportion of the match last season, which can be broken down as follows:
He was first placed with Crosby on the 2nd of March vs MON and played the next two vs CBJ and FLA there; he was moved away for a game then put back there for a five game stretch from the 10th to 17th March (BOS, WSH, BUF, STL, PHI). He did play with Crosby again until the last two games of the season - DET on Apr 4, NYR on Apr 6.
The raw results of that period was that we outscored teams 7-5. Most of the success came in the very first game, where the line had 3 5v5 goals vs MON. Most of the fail came against STL, where the line gave up 3 5v5 goals. Take those two games out and you're left with a very boring but successful period of games, which was consistent with the Penguins in general in March. Some will be saying at this point "But they scored a lot more goals!". They did, but those were ENers and not 5v5.
So how did McCann and Crosby score? This goal, the first they combined on, probably tells the best story:
In it, McCann makes the all important interception by reading where Jordie Benn will try to put the puck. He has the hands and IQ to find Crosby, whose quick interplay with Guentzel sets up the goal.
Out of the line's 7 goals, 3 came from pressuring the opposition into a mistake in their own zone and quick passing to set up a fantastic opportunity, including this highlight reel steal by McCann. This is both good and bad; good in that it displays how effective McCann's IQ and hands can be, bad in that it's somewhat unsustainable. There's simply not that many lines scoring half their goals from defensive zone turnovers. If we're talking consistent scoring, we're probably talking off of zone entries and off of the cycle.
Crosby's line only scored 3 goals in those scenarios with McCann on ice (one goal was directly off a face-off win) and McCann only registered a point on one of them; this breakaway effort:
It's a blink and you miss it type assist, but McCann's ability to spot the breakout pass quickly and make it accurately after receiving the puck with his back to the opposition net is vital. McCann receives more than the occasional piece of criticism regarding tunnel vision (including from me) but this video, and the opening one, shows what he can do as a playmaker. The question has to be is whether those videos are representative; after all, these are the successes. What happens in the failures?
And what does it mean that McCann's involvement in these goals is solely about being defensively responsible and making quick bang-bang plays, and never holding onto the puck to make a play himself? The one goal on the cycle that Crosby's line scored with McCann there shows him being responsible and diligent, first battling with opposition dmen then falling back to cover for the activating Maatta, but not involved with the puck.
It's not like one can easily find evidence of McCann's creativity elsewhere with the Pens; in fact, I believe he only had 2 assists without Sid on ice his entire time here. One of them was Blueger scoring off of his rebound and the other was a simple pass to Bjugstad. Maybe there's evidence in Florida videos, but that falls outside the scope of this research. It looks strongly like McCann just doesn't do great with the puck on his stick for extended periods of time. That could be a problem.
He didn't seem to be scoring goals himself with Crosby either which could also be a problem. The source of that's not hard to find. While McCann has a very nice release and likes to shoot (only Pearson had a higher s/60 as a Pens forward last season), he does so from unprofitable areas. Only Grant, Brassard and Cullen had a lower rate of scoring chances; only Grant and Sprong had a lower rate of high danger chances. Not getting close to the net doesn't bode well for playing with Sid at all, and might explain a little why so few goals went off from cycling opportunities for the line. That said - the line's HDCF /60 remain unchanged at 14.06 with and without McCann. So maybe that isn't the reason.
In any case, the video and stats suggest that as an ideal attacking zone wing for Crosby, McCann is a work in progress. His zeal in performing his defensive duties has helped create goals and he is capable of the bang bang plays beloved by Sid. His ability to hold onto the puck and create plays, as well as score 5v5, both look to need improvement - it is difficult to imagine him sticking long term with Sid without improvements there, particularly if Crosby or Guentzel go dry.
Outside of the attacking zone, we have to rely on McCann's stats in Florida for exit and entry, which means caveat emptor on all of this. He was one of their better zone exit choices as a forward - better than average at exiting with possession and very safe - but a void in terms of entering it. Arguably, this works out - he is strong at least season's weakness and they are strong at his weakness. If McCann's presence on Sid's line lets Sid spend a bit less time deep in his zone, that could be a bigger attacking boost than anything anyone can do in the opposition zone. Whether it does work out in practice remains to be seen. In terms of possession he was remarkably similar to Crosby's line without him except for a startlingly low HDCA/60 (which was consistent with the team as a whole in March); as a result, the line with McCann's xGF% was 5% higher than the line without, although the line’s xGF was 0.1 lower with McCann. However, given how absurdly good March's stats were, this doesn't feel sustainable.
In summation, I would suggest that McCann looks like he'd overall neither detract or add significantly to Crosby as a rule, but if he continues to improve or joins the line on a hot streak, he could be a great option.
Patric Hornqvist
Hornqvist started the season on Crosby's line, playing over 10 minutes vs WSH and MON. He played 4 minutes with Crosby the next game vs VGK. His next return to the line was vs DAL on the 21st of Nov; he played the next game vs BOS, then not again until 23rd Feb where he played PHI, CBJ and BUF.
The raw results is that we outscored teams 7-4. Most of the action took place in the first game of each mini-period, with Crosby's line scoring 2-1 vs WSH, DAL and PHI. I will return to this at a later date, but there seems to be some evidence for Crosby thriving off of fresh linemates.
Posting video of what Hornqvist offers to Crosby and Guentzel seems to be the most redundant thing I could do. We all know what he does. He'll offer screens. Hornqvist will offer all the screens. He will pick up loose pucks and either score himself (not with Guentzel there but whatevs), or he'll pick them up and pass to someone in a good position. That goes for in the defensive zone too - this isn't as impressive as McCann's breakout pass, but it still got the job done.
His best contribution to a Crosby line goal is this one though:
Something people often bring up about the need for quality to support Crosby and Malkin is "What happens when the opposition double team the star and ask the support players what they're going to do about it?". In this case, Hornqvist keeps skating until Columbus have to pay attention to him, at which point he makes a neat little pass to an unmarked Crosby who can find an unmarked Guentzel. That's how goals happen. I'm not saying that's what Hornqvist does everytime - if anything, the fact I only have one video of this for you tells its own story - but it is good to be reminded every now and again that Hornqvist can make things happen if given space and isn't just good within the 10 yards around each net. And it happens because Hornqvist backs himself. Would the younger kids do that, or would they force a pass early to Crosby or Guentzel?
It should also be noted that that's the 2nd goal that started with Hornqvist collecting a puck in his own zone and making a simple play. As the chart for Crosby shows, Hornqvist was the Pens' 3rd best source of controlled zone exit among forwards last season. There is, sometimes, a perception that Hornqvist is something of a black hole when it comes to transition play. It's justified - nobody did worse than Hornqvist for controlled zone entries for the Pens last season - but not the whole story.
Hornqvist also had strong possession stats; the line with him beat the line without him by at least 3% in all of HDCF, SCF, FF and CF shares. Unsurprisingly the line was 3% higher of xGF% too; it was projected to score a tad less, and concede a lot less. This supremacy in possession stats was true last season as well.
One can somewhat understand Crosby's reluctance to play with Hornqvist; he is not great at giving the line clean opportunities to play in the offensive zone, he can't play at the same speed as Crosby and Guentzel with the puck on his stick. But things still work there and not just due to Hornqvist's ability to lurk near the net. And the line becomes better defensively. One doesn't entirely understand the reluctance; it is frequently a better line with him there. Based on this glance, it looks one of the safest versions of Sid's line, and Hornqvist's great strength will probably make it likely to be involved come the POs.
