credit where credit is due

[TK 421]

Sad to see Reaves go, but I support both of these trades.

I read this TSN article, and man, what's the deal? It seems pretty misinformed.

http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-blues-busy-dealing-at-draft-1.788038

It's funny because Schenn is exactly the kind of net front presence we needed and we dumped Lehtera at center for Sobotka who is a much better fit for us. So apparently Ryan Reaves and a lottery protected 1st in 2018 leaves us worse on the ice next year? Yeah...not seeing it.

 

[DatDude44]

It's funny because Schenn is exactly the kind of net front presence we needed and we dumped Lehtera at center for Sobotka who is a much better fit for us. So apparently Ryan Reaves and a lottery protected 1st in 2018 leaves us worse on the ice next year? Yeah...not seeing it.

I'm actually not convinced that we'll move soby back to C.

I actually think Stastny-Barbashev-Berglund will be our top9 C's while Soby stays on LW like he did in the playoffs.

 

[TK 421]

I'm actually not convinced that we'll move soby back to C.

I actually think Stastny-Barbashev-Berglund will be our top9 C's while Soby stays on LW like he did in the playoffs.

Possibly. Armstrong previously indicated that they wouldn't just throw Sobotka into the center position after being out of the league for 2 years but this is a guy who led the league in FO win % in his last full NHL season. It's possible he takes the draw then shifts over to LW as well. I don't see a benefit to Berglund at center over Sobotka other than being a bit more aware defensively and being a bigger body if its required for a particular mathcup which is largely cancelled out if Soby is winning draws to get possession.

 

[DatDude44]

Possibly. Armstrong previously indicated that they wouldn't just throw Sobotka into the center position after being out of the league for 2 years but this is a guy who led the league in FO win % in his last full NHL season. It's possible he takes the draw then shifts over to LW as well. I don't see a benefit to Berglund at center over Sobotka other than being a bit more aware defensively and being a bigger body if its required for a particular mathcup which is largely cancelled out if Soby is winning draws to get possession.

100% agree. I'd be shocked if soby didn't take alot of draws.

All i know is if names like berglund, sobotka and steen are being tossed around for playing on our 3RD LINE, then i'm pumped.


I'd love to see Schwartz-Stastny-Tarasenko, Fabbri-Barbashev-Schenn(I think i'd fall in luv with this line), Sobotka/berg-berg/sobotka- Steen, Paajarvi-Brodziak-Sundqvist

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

Sad to see Reaves go, but I support both of these trades.

I read this TSN article, and man, what's the deal? It seems pretty misinformed.

http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-blues-busy-dealing-at-draft-1.788038

Just a symptom of nobody caring at all enough about St. Louis to have any sort of authority when talking about us (and, the Catch-22 being that the local press doesn't know enough about hockey to be all that reliable either, but I prefer them bc at least they're watching). Cullen's off-season To-Do List for the Blues was pretty bad this year too.

But 99% of the stories about the Reaves trade aren't about "oh the Blues robbed Pittsburgh," they're mostly about "the Pens did what they had to do to get the guy in the league who is the best at what he does," or at worst "the Penguins made this horrible decision and this hockey team from St. Louis was involved somehow." The Schenn trade is being reported as "the Flyers got two 1st rounders," and not "the Blues got rid of Lehtera and added a forward who fits their style to a T."

The Blues improved a ton this weekend, and are getting very little press about it, certainly much less than Chicago taking steps backwards.

So, more than anything I'm just not really interested in what they have to say about our team. They have no idea what Schenn's role here will be, or how we are planning on using him. This is part of my beef with using stats to predict how a player will perform on another team. Cullen is talking about how his stats are only good because he was playing with Giroux and Simmonds... well, (A) he was obviously good enough to be playing with them, and (B) Giroux and Simmonds aren't Schwartz, Tarasenko, Barbashev, Stastny, Fabbri or any of the other players he might be playing with. What's to say he doesn't click with our group and break the 2.00pts/60 mark and stay there? What's to say he doesn't put the time and work in with Ott and Stastny and get better at faceoffs? What's to say that having different wingers with different skillsets than G and Simmonds doesn't enable him to be an effective center? It's unlikely that he becomes a PPG player all of a sudden, but I can absolutely see him finding chemistry here and putting in some Zach Parise-level seasons for us.

 

[DatDude44]

Just a symptom of nobody caring at all enough about St. Louis to have any sort of authority when talking about us (and, the Catch-22 being that the local press doesn't know enough about hockey to be all that reliable either, but I prefer them bc at least they're watching). Cullen's off-season To-Do List for the Blues was pretty bad this year too.

But 99% of the stories about the Reaves trade aren't about "oh the Blues robbed Pittsburgh," they're mostly about "the Pens did what they had to do to get the guy in the league who is the best at what he does," or at worst "the Penguins made this horrible decision and this hockey team from St. Louis was involved somehow." The Schenn trade is being reported as "the Flyers got two 1st rounders," and not "the Blues got rid of Lehtera and added a forward who fits their style to a T."

The Blues improved a ton this weekend, and are getting very little press about it, certainly much less than Chicago taking steps backwards.

So, more than anything I'm just not really interested in what they have to say about our team. They have no idea what Schenn's role here will be, or how we are planning on using him. This is part of my beef with using stats to predict how a player will perform on another team. Cullen is talking about how his stats are only good because he was playing with Giroux and Simmonds... well, (A) he was obviously good enough to be playing with them, and (B) Giroux and Simmonds aren't Schwartz, Tarasenko, Barbashev, Stastny, Fabbri or any of the other players he might be playing with. What's to say he doesn't click with our group and break the 2.00pts/60 mark and stay there? What's to say he doesn't put the time and work in with Ott and Stastny and get better at faceoffs? What's to say that having different wingers with different skillsets than G and Simmonds doesn't enable him to be an effective center? It's unlikely that he becomes a PPG player all of a sudden, but I can absolutely see him finding chemistry here and putting in some Zach Parise-level seasons for us.

You and i have been on the same wavelength the last couple of days

oh and

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f0sDMFFq4dY

also from 3 years ago.... I'm excited...

 

[Alklha]

Sad to see Reaves go, but I support both of these trades.

I read this TSN article, and man, what's the deal? It seems pretty misinformed.

http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-blues-busy-dealing-at-draft-1.788038

To say that we overpaid in the Schenn deal is maybe right. To say that we offset that overpayment with the Reaves deal is right.

His assessment takes into account to loss of Perron in the expansion draft, but then fails to mention who replaces Lehtera. Sure... if we lose Perron, Lehtera and Reaves and replace them with Schenn and Sundqvist, we are worse off.

I don't really understand all the criticism of his production being on the PP. A big part of the reason we went out in the second round is because our PP was brutal. If people want to complain about players production being all about the PP, go look at Lucic.

 

[tfriede2]

To say that we overpaid in the Schenn deal is maybe right. To say that we offset that overpayment with the Reaves deal is right.

His assessment takes into account to loss of Perron in the expansion draft, but then fails to mention who replaces Lehtera. Sure... if we lose Perron, Lehtera and Reaves and replace them with Schenn and Sundqvist, we are worse off.

I don't really understand all the criticism of his production being on the PP. A big part of the reason we went out in the second round is because our PP was brutal. If people want to complain about players production being all about the PP, go look at Lucic.

Agreed - looking at the Schenn trade in a vacuum, it's a bit of an overpayment. The Blues said they made that trade knowing they would be trading Reaves. So looking at the Schenn trade alone, it's two first rounders and Lehtera for Schenn. But taking into account the Reaves trade, it's basically Lehtera, Reaves, a 2nd, and a 1st for Sundqvist and Schenn. If we didn't have two 1st rounders this year, I would have been a bit more skeptical.

But the above analysis doesn't even take into account Lehtera's negative value. Schenn out-produces him by double. To receive a 55-60 point guy in return for a 25-30 point guy (who played mostly on the 1st and 2nd line), a 2nd, and a 1st for only $500k more is incredible.

On the other hand, it kind of feels like all of these trades just got us back to where we were 2-3 years ago when we had Oshie. Schenn will likely take the 2nd line RW spot (I don't think he'll produce at center, but we'll see). Both players produce at similar paces (over the past 2 years) and make around the same amount. Imagine if we had just kept Oshie and used our 2nd/1st to actually get the center we need...ugh. But again, that's all hindsight - Schenn fills a huge need, whether it be at center or RW, and we got rid of one of the worst contracts in the league (and we got younger - Schenn being 4.5 years younger than Oshie and 3.5 years younger than Lehtera).

Edit: The last line of that article - it's tough to look at the trades (and losing Perron) and believe that the Blues are better than before? No, it's incredibly easy to believe.

 

[carter333167]

To say that we overpaid in the Schenn deal is maybe right. To say that we offset that overpayment with the Reaves deal is right.

His assessment takes into account to loss of Perron in the expansion draft, but then fails to mention who replaces Lehtera. Sure... if we lose Perron, Lehtera and Reaves and replace them with Schenn and Sundqvist, we are worse off.

I don't really understand all the criticism of his production being on the PP. A big part of the reason we went out in the second round is because our PP was brutal. If people want to complain about players production being all about the PP, go look at Lucic.

Agreed....the two trades together make a nice blend of improving the current roster and stocking the pool....present and future both addressed.

If we wanted to go "all future," we make the Pens trade and not the Philly trade. I think Army's move was proper....address them both at the same time.

If we want to recoup next year's first, we have some assets that might allow us to do so.

Based upon what Philly fans have said, I do hope that Schenn ends up on RW. We have adequate centers and, if he simply is better at RW, let's maximize his goal scoring at his best position...second line RW is a need.

 

[LetsGoBooze]

I have come to assess the weekend moves in this manner:

20-Robert Thomas
27-Klim Kostin
51-Paid to cap-dump Lehtera

Reaves traded for Sundqvist
1st(2018) traded for Schenn

Love all these moves/picks.

 

[tfriede2]

I have come to assess the weekend moves in this manner:

20-Robert Thomas
27-Klim Kostin
51-Paid to cap-dump Lehtera

Reaves traded for Sundqvist
1st(2018) traded for Schenn

Love all these moves/picks.

This is a great way of looking at it...sure, it's the most optimistic way to look at it from the Blues' perspective, but there is nothing really disingenuous here (except the 27th was really converted to the 31st, but given the player we selected, it's kind of a moot point).

 

[LetsGoBooze]

except the 27th was really converted to the 31st

Yes, i was just listing(on the left) the assets we had going into the weekend.

 

[DatDude44]

Yes, i was just listing(on the left) the assets we had going into the weekend.

Another way to look at it is

20. Thomas

51, Lehtera Cap dump and reaves for sundqvist and kostin

1st(2018) for schenn


basically.... LGB

 

[wannabebluesplayer]

I think it was a good weekend by Armstrong to get this team back to square/even. He didn't vastly improve the team, but he dug himself out of a big hole. Now the Blues can focus on improving again over the rest of the off-season/year. The prospect pool looks good again, and if absolutely need be, he could make another move.

Side Note: I'm curious why people think Schenn won't center Tarasenko/Schwartz or Fabbri/Steen? I get his faceoff numbers aren't great, but neither were anyone's last year, except Stastny. I could see a lineup of:

Schwartz Stastny Tarasenko
Fabbri Schenn Steen
Sobotka Barbashev Berglund
Sanford Brodziak Paajarvi

Jaskin/Sundqvist

I mean, I still think they need to grap a top9 RW but if they don't I think the Blues would be ok. Obviously, Sobotka could take faceoffs as well if someone is struggling, but the above, to me, seemed like Armstrong's plan.

 

[trevorftw]

To say that we overpaid in the Schenn deal is maybe right. To say that we offset that overpayment with the Reaves deal is right.

His assessment takes into account to loss of Perron in the expansion draft, but then fails to mention who replaces Lehtera. Sure... if we lose Perron, Lehtera and Reaves and replace them with Schenn and Sundqvist, we are worse off.

I don't really understand all the criticism of his production being on the PP. A big part of the reason we went out in the second round is because our PP was brutal. If people want to complain about players production being all about the PP, go look at Lucic.

I thought including perron showed some weird bias. It was like he was looking for something to undercut the Reaves deal. It's not like the blues were the only team in the league to give up a player in the expansion draft. It seems like a malicious manipulation of the facts.

Also weird that he'd value Lehtera so highly, but I guess that is more of an ignorance of the team sort of thing.

I usually find TSN to be a good source of hockey related information. I wish the blues were better perceived by the national hockey audience.
Maybe media bias is part of the issue.

 

[Brian39]

I was hoping Perron was exposed as part of a move with Vegas and I voiced my displeasure about it when the expansion draft came and went with nothing else happening.

Time to eat some crow. I thought Perron had more value than Reaves on the trade market. I was very clearly mistaken in that belief as Reaves ended up having way more value than any of us thought. As we stand here today, I'd be shocked if Army hadn't talked about a Reaves trade with the Pens before finalizing our protected list.

I'm very happy with the past week by Army. Regardless of how you value each individual transaction, this is the total balance sheet for he week:

Lose: Perron, Reaves, Lehtera, #27 overall , #51 overall, and a 2018 1st rounder.

Gain: Schenn, Sundqvist, #31 overall (selected Kostin), and $3.325 in cap space

On top of that, we held on to the #20 overall and drafted Thomas.

Considering what some teams lost to expansion (either a good roster player or the price paid to protect roster pieces), that is a damn good week. It is very likely that we would have taken Kostin at #27 if we had kept the pick, so those feel like a wash (and from where I'm sitting, I like Kostin more than anyone picked from #27-30). Shedding Lehtera is a positive. Schenn (while not a perfect forward) should be a good fit on the team and provides elements were were lacking last year. He had more goals than any player on the roster besides Tarasenko and would have been tied for 2nd in points. He adds a secondary threat to score on the PP, which should help a ton. We could have gotten by the Preds with a good PP and this mitigates the loss of Shatty moving forward.

All in all, I'm extremely happy with the way Army handled the 2 drafts this year. Our NHL roster is in better shape than it was a week ago. Our cap structure is in better shape than it was a week ago and we accomplished those goals without mortgaging much future. Not having a 1st next year hurts a bit, but that is mitigated by picking twice in the 1st round this year.

Now it's on to free agency. I think we are positioned well for the next couple weeks. We have plenty of room for Parayko's extension and to address the rest of the roster. CapFriendly has us with $10.9 mil in space, but they are a bit off. They still have Opilka on the roster as a 3rd goalie, which won't be the case at the start of the year. Taking him off the roster gives us about $11.5 mil to fill 6 roster spots (Parayko, 7th D, and forwards 11-14). Penciling in Barby and an internal call up for D #7, you're looking at a shade under $10 mil for Parayko and 3 depth forwards. That's exceedingly doable and is enough space to upgrade a forward position over the summer if we move a roster player such as Gunnar or Sobotka.

I'm excited to see what we do. We have flexibility and we're looking good enough to be a top team in the West this year.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Schenn will definitely be an upgrade over Berglund/whoever in the net front/low slot area, but he's not going to offset the impact of losing one of the best PPQBs in the league.

It's possible the Blues might switch the PP up from past years, but there's very little chance the Blues are going to run things through the left half-wall. They don't have a single dangerous RH forward to put there, much less Giroux, and that's not exactly the ideal role for Pietrangelo or Parayko.

That basically eliminates Schenn's one-timer from the slot (a significant part of his PP arsenal) as a viable option. Think Brouwer on the PP (another net front guy/interior slot trigger-man on the PP) if everything was flowing through the left side from the half-wall down instead of the right. That reduces his options, and thus his effectiveness, a significant amount.

The Blues simply don't have the personnel to take full advantage of what Schenn has to offer on the PP. Even if they did, I'd still think it wouldn't fully mitigate losing Shattenkirk.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

Schenn will definitely be an upgrade over Berglund/whoever in the net front/low slot area, but he's not going to offset the impact of losing one of the best PPQBs in the league.

It's possible the Blues might switch the PP up from past years, but there's very little chance the Blues are going to run things through the left half-wall. They don't have a single dangerous RH forward to put there, much less Giroux, and that's not exactly the ideal role for Pietrangelo or Parayko.

That basically eliminates Schenn's one-timer from the slot (a significant part of his PP arsenal) as a viable option. Think Brouwer on the PP (another net front guy/interior slot trigger-man on the PP) if everything was flowing through the left side from the half-wall down instead of the right. That reduces his options, and thus his effectiveness, a significant amount.

The Blues simply don't have the personnel to take full advantage of what Schenn has to offer on the PP. Even if they did, I'd still think it wouldn't fully mitigate losing Shattenkirk.

I see what you're saying, but I am confident we'll find a way to make it work. Berube is very good at engineering a quality PP. I think we'll see something pretty different from what we saw with Shattenkirk. I would like to see us playing a lot more down behind the net, for example. We did that a lot two years ago, and were really successful doing it. I'm thinking of the little give-and-go play that Fabbri/Stastny/Brouwer used to run.

Even if he just posts up down low, and waits to deflect pucks in, it will be better than what we had last year.

 

[2 Minute Minor]

I'd like to see Schenn pad his stat sheet cleaning up pucks and teeth off Parayko slapshots. That could work. Just not Schenn's own teeth, please.

 

[EastonBlues22]

I see what you're saying, but I am confident we'll find a way to make it work. Berube is very good at engineering a quality PP. I think we'll see something pretty different from what we saw with Shattenkirk. I would like to see us playing a lot more down behind the net, for example. We did that a lot two years ago, and were really successful doing it. I'm thinking of the little give-and-go play that Fabbri/Stastny/Brouwer used to run.

Even if he just posts up down low, and waits to deflect pucks in, it will be better than what we had last year.

You can't work with what you don't have.

A setup with a LH shot on the right half-wall, a LH shot in the right corner, and a RH shot near the net or in the low slot has a bunch of complementary options. The LH shot on the half-wall can pass to the slot for a one-timer/deflection, take his own one-timer off a pass, press the middle himself for a shot, or threaten any of the above and ultimately pass it down low. The guy in the corner can make either pass (one-timer in the slot or back to the half-wall), or press the middle himself for a forehand shot/stuff attempt. The guy in the slot is always available and always dangerous. The defense has a lot of dangerous possibilities to worry about as the puck moves around the perimeter, and any misstep leads to a potential scoring opportunity.

A LH shot on the left half-wall, a LH shot in the left corner, and a LH shot near the net or in the low slot doesn't have anywhere near the same options. There's no one-timer threat from the half-wall, and neither the half-wall nor the corner can threaten the middle quickly/effectively to create their own dangerous scoring opportunity. That makes it much easier to focus on the only real threat in the middle, even when the offensive team's perimeter puck movement is crisp.

With the people we have, anything down low really should run through the right side unless they want to experiment with running a PP through Pietrangelo or Parayko at the left half-wall with Steen on the point. That seems less than ideal to me, unless you're hoping to use Tarasenko on the right side like Ovechkin is used on the left. Even then, Pietrangelo and Parayko aren't anything close to Backstrom.

 

[trevorftw]

I'd like to see Schenn pad his stat sheet cleaning up pucks and teeth off Parayko slapshots. That could work. Just not Schenn's own teeth, please.

Seems like the kind of guy who wouldn't miss a shift after losing a few teeth. A parayko slapshot tho...

 

[DatDude44]

Schenn will definitely be an upgrade over Berglund/whoever in the net front/low slot area, but he's not going to offset the impact of losing one of the best PPQBs in the league.

It's possible the Blues might switch the PP up from past years, but there's very little chance the Blues are going to run things through the left half-wall. They don't have a single dangerous RH forward to put there, much less Giroux, and that's not exactly the ideal role for Pietrangelo or Parayko.

That basically eliminates Schenn's one-timer from the slot (a significant part of his PP arsenal) as a viable option. Think Brouwer on the PP (another net front guy/interior slot trigger-man on the PP) if everything was flowing through the left side from the half-wall down instead of the right. That reduces his options, and thus his effectiveness, a significant amount.

The Blues simply don't have the personnel to take full advantage of what Schenn has to offer on the PP. Even if they did, I'd still think it wouldn't fully mitigate losing Shattenkirk.

I don't think schwartz, fabbri or senko will have a problem finding schenn in the slot if he's open for a 1-t. the only issue not having a righty on that side does is eliminate any seam pass one-timer opportunities(outside of a cross body one-T), tho if there's anybody i'd want either taking a cross body one-t or a soft catch & shoot would be #91. Maybe we just keep senko on that side(which we've done a ton of times previously) to help offset not having a righty since even tho he's not on his natural right side, he's still such a dangerous threat from the left side it could atleast help makeout for the lack of a righty on that side. Also, i kinda prefer tarasenko catching passes and either walking and passing or walking and shooting rather than him just ripping one-t's at the top of the circle, vladdy's snapper is so deceptive and so accurate and so quick that i'd rather have him just take snappers on the left and allow somebody else to rip the 1-t opportunities on the right side

 

[EastonBlues22]

I don't think schwartz, fabbri or senko will have a problem finding schenn in the slot if he's open for a 1-t. the only issue not having a righty on that side does is eliminate any seam pass one-timer opportunities(outside of a cross body one-T), tho if there's anybody i'd want either taking a cross body one-t or a soft catch & shoot would be #91. Maybe we just keep senko on that side(which we've done a ton of times previously) to help offset not having a righty since even tho he's not on his natural right side, he's still such a dangerous threat from the left side it could atleast help makeout for the lack of a righty on that side. Also, i kinda prefer tarasenko catching passes and either walking and passing or walking and shooting rather than him just ripping one-t's at the top of the circle, vladdy's snapper is so deceptive and so accurate and so quick that i'd rather have him just take snappers on the left and allow somebody else to rip the 1-t opportunities on the right side

That's just it, even Tarasenko's not much of a threat off the left half-wall. The shooting angle is so much worse for a lefty than it is for a righty, you usually can't shoot it off a pass before the defense and goalie set, you can't shoot it while moving towards the middle (i.e. while significantly changing the goaltender's angle and improving your own), and any pass from a shooting position is across the body (which means they are slower and more telegraphed).

I remember seeing him over there a decent amount of the time last year, and some the previous year even, and the PP rarely generated anything dangerous while he was there. Usually I found myself wondering what the hell they were trying to accomplish.

We'll see what the Blues do, but I'll be very surprised if they find any sustained success running the PP through the left half-wall and left corner down low regardless of who they put there. Maybe they can work some touch passes to Schenn in the slot from the left wall from an umbrella setup or off a rotation play, but the Blues like having a guy near the net so I doubt something like that becomes a regular focus of what they're trying to do.

 

[carter333167]

^^So how would you all arrange the PP1 and PP2 units?

 

[DeuceNine]

shedding lehtera was worth giving up the 27th....now we bring in a 55-60 pt hard nosed all around top 6 fwd who can play all 3 positions on a contract relatively the same as lehteras....yeah i'm ok giving up next years non top 10 1st for that. Especially since we then got rid of a 4th liner and drafted Kostin, makes losing next years 1st even easier.

Plenty of sources placed Kostin as the top European skater in this draft. We stole this guy. Now let's see if everyone else was wrong about him.