Crazy predictions for next season

Dynamite Time

Where Is My Mind?
Jan 23, 2018
3,579
1,765
Austin, TX
A little hint who may have took guidance from me with expansion draft specific questions about my Cup Core Theory atbthe blog Lowetide run by TSN 1260,s Allan Mitchell since 05-06.

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/murray-or-fleury.2218937/#post-131063635

Thier was a repeatative wondering about Fluery.
I had not visited video or data of his play since the cup win under a Murray an elite Table hockey movement goalie.

I was in the final year of 9 yrs of data chase and non linear capital based emperical modeling for coal power plant conversion anslysis in alberta.

What they had discovered was Fluery went from scatter movement to table hockey movement like Murray. Fluery had the open shot acceleration needed to be elite. He was now a #7 HD goalie.

Cup core Theory: expansion draft guidance from blog posts.
1. HD system coach (2 elite available)
Tippett and Gallant
Dallas: Montgomery ???

2. Top 10 HD goalie (1 available)
Fluery
Dallas:
Bishop #27 HD goalie
Khodobin #25 HD goalie.

3. 3+ top 60 HD dmen (9 available to Vegas)
3 top 10 Mcnabb, Stoner, Schmidt
2 top 25 Methot, TVR
2 top 45 Sbisa, C. Miller
2 top 60 Engelland Garrison.

Offensive dmen abandon free path to HD area yielding high HD sh rates. But we fen double the standard Open shot rates.

Dallas,s d established a well below average HD save% to perform around. Sub .910.
It is the brutal open shots rates off dmen subject thevgoalie to that is not fair.

Methot is a unique dman in that he can individually HD defend successfully in a 1R - 1D - 1G structure.
Look at Karlsdons unit diff number without Methot.

Polak is a fringe top 60 HD Dman. Great cup core add.

(theory: off dmen are OFFENSIVE)
Off dmen generate even offence 4 times less effectively than forwards. 270-300 fwds generate offence than most dmen. Puck in fwds ASAP.

Sbisa a top 45 HD dman till injury is still available.

Martin was a HD dman who could cover (1R - 1D - 1G). Structure playing 2nd comp with burns the 2 years before.
He is still a strong HD sys dman canidate.

4. Top 8 team in Cummulative Top 125 fwd production (16g 39p)
There is 185 groups (16g 39p) of Top 125 fwd production from the top 125 fwds. Mcdavid = 2.65

(5 available in exp) Neal, Perron, Smith, Marchesault, Eakin Top 125 1 yr in Dallas. Plus prospects that would be clear Top 125 with increased. PP & EV TOI. Karlsdon, Haula, Tuch.

Dallas is well above needed gf production.
Constantly fixing a thing that does not need to be fixed.

5. +ve goal diff special teams.
Even g/60 = 2.35
PP GF/60 =7.35
So break even is 2.35 for Even and 7.35 for PP.
Requires 3 times more goals before you see a +ve goal diff affect.
PP points have 1/3 the value of Even points.
Yet we pay outrageous cap rates for PP production.
Brutal goal diff cap expenditure.

Seek out the best PK skaters available cause there Special team goal diff cap cost is cheapest.
Vegas acquired the best PK forwards available.

I like 2 pairs with HD dmen to establish above league average HD save% base.
Reduction in open shot density.

Bishop has never been a cup caliber goalie.
He allways had top HD sys teams.

Poor HD def can make a slightly above avg goalie look bad.
Lehotonen
Great HD def can make a below average goalie look good.

GA is a reflection of def triangles HD performance relative to CA count.

Bishop bad
Khodobin better than bishop

Methot elite
Polak Top 60
Should have 2 above average HD pairs.
Might allow forwards to generate offence needed to snag playoffs.
What, can you repeat that? I didn’t catch it all.
 

FirstRowUpperDeck

Registered User
May 20, 2014
5,386
1,410
Arlington, TX
One thing I will be looking for is how long they play Monty's system before reverting to the dump and chase that is familiar. They were exciting and relentless in puck pursuit early last year, then, not so much.

They seemed to stick with Ruff's up tempo style.

I was never sure what Gully's style was supposed to be, but it was a hot mess most of the time.

And who can forget Crawford's up tempo that lasted until he found out the team wasn't in good enough shape to play it. In a way, Hitches system might have been more draining than Ruff's.

Hopefully, Monty finds the middle ground and they stick with it.
 

serp

Registered User
Jan 17, 2016
20,545
12,391
Maybe not that crazy but : Heiskanen wins the Calder

Talent wise it wouldn't be but the way Dallas gets treated by the hockey media it def would be crazy.
 
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LT

Global Moderator
Jul 23, 2010
41,543
12,925
He'd have to put up around 50 points amongst a weak forward crop for him to get consideration.

He'll also have to significantly outproduce Dahlin (a good 5-10 points). Calder typically seems to be pretty narrative-driven when there isn't a clear choice.
 

FirstRowUpperDeck

Registered User
May 20, 2014
5,386
1,410
Arlington, TX
Monty seems to like to keep the top line together, but boy, if they could find a RW to skate with them, pushing Rads to second line, scoring might improve. Janmark and Spezza have chemistry. Only potential problem is Rads tends to be a playmaking wing, not a finisher. Janmark might end up with more goals than him.

Who would be top line RW then? Nuke, Comeau, Shore, Pitlick (surprise choice, but had a surprising amount of speed and skill)
See Comeau as the perfect third liner, and not sold on Nuke being the superstar he was predicted to be.
Am discounting Smith, Elie (although they have the speed) and Ritchie.
 

Kcb12345

Registered User
Jun 6, 2017
28,979
22,203
Monty seems to like to keep the top line together, but boy, if they could find a RW to skate with them, pushing Rads to second line, scoring might improve. Janmark and Spezza have chemistry. Only potential problem is Rads tends to be a playmaking wing, not a finisher. Janmark might end up with more goals than him.

Who would be top line RW then? Nuke, Comeau, Shore, Pitlick (surprise choice, but had a surprising amount of speed and skill)
See Comeau as the perfect third liner, and not sold on Nuke being the superstar he was predicted to be.
Am discounting Smith, Elie (although they have the speed) and Ritchie.

Should at least try Nichushkin up there
 
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Kcb12345

Registered User
Jun 6, 2017
28,979
22,203
Team Green won the scrimmage today, 5-3.

Scoring:

Robertson, Gurianov (2), Spezza, Seguin (PS), Caamano (PS), Pitlick, Nichushkin

The team with Seguin, Benn, Heiskanen, Robertson, Dellandrea, etc. lost.


Beautiful shootout goal by Robertson
 
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Starsfansfromqc

Registered User
Sep 8, 2018
158
66
Stars will be in the top 10 of team scoring goal!

I think the new coach will find some magic in these group of guy's.
 

FirstRowUpperDeck

Registered User
May 20, 2014
5,386
1,410
Arlington, TX
He has made trades earlier. I think Jason Demers came just before Thanksgiving, maybe a month and a half into the season. That was one of his better trades, although, Dillon is still playing third pair for SJ, while JD has joined Gaunce and Goli as the AZ "former Dallas D" club.
 

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