A little hint who may have took guidance from me with expansion draft specific questions about my Cup Core Theory atbthe blog Lowetide run by TSN 1260,s Allan Mitchell since 05-06.
https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/murray-or-fleury.2218937/#post-131063635
Thier was a repeatative wondering about Fluery.
I had not visited video or data of his play since the cup win under a Murray an elite Table hockey movement goalie.
I was in the final year of 9 yrs of data chase and non linear capital based emperical modeling for coal power plant conversion anslysis in alberta.
What they had discovered was Fluery went from scatter movement to table hockey movement like Murray. Fluery had the open shot acceleration needed to be elite. He was now a #7 HD goalie.
Cup core Theory: expansion draft guidance from blog posts.
1. HD system coach (2 elite available)
Tippett and Gallant
Dallas: Montgomery ???
2. Top 10 HD goalie (1 available)
Fluery
Dallas:
Bishop #27 HD goalie
Khodobin #25 HD goalie.
3. 3+ top 60 HD dmen (9 available to Vegas)
3 top 10 Mcnabb, Stoner, Schmidt
2 top 25 Methot, TVR
2 top 45 Sbisa, C. Miller
2 top 60 Engelland Garrison.
Offensive dmen abandon free path to HD area yielding high HD sh rates. But we fen double the standard Open shot rates.
Dallas,s d established a well below average HD save% to perform around. Sub .910.
It is the brutal open shots rates off dmen subject thevgoalie to that is not fair.
Methot is a unique dman in that he can individually HD defend successfully in a 1R - 1D - 1G structure.
Look at Karlsdons unit diff number without Methot.
Polak is a fringe top 60 HD Dman. Great cup core add.
(theory: off dmen are OFFENSIVE)
Off dmen generate even offence 4 times less effectively than forwards. 270-300 fwds generate offence than most dmen. Puck in fwds ASAP.
Sbisa a top 45 HD dman till injury is still available.
Martin was a HD dman who could cover (1R - 1D - 1G). Structure playing 2nd comp with burns the 2 years before.
He is still a strong HD sys dman canidate.
4. Top 8 team in Cummulative Top 125 fwd production (16g 39p)
There is 185 groups (16g 39p) of Top 125 fwd production from the top 125 fwds. Mcdavid = 2.65
(5 available in exp) Neal, Perron, Smith, Marchesault, Eakin Top 125 1 yr in Dallas. Plus prospects that would be clear Top 125 with increased. PP & EV TOI. Karlsdon, Haula, Tuch.
Dallas is well above needed gf production.
Constantly fixing a thing that does not need to be fixed.
5. +ve goal diff special teams.
Even g/60 = 2.35
PP GF/60 =7.35
So break even is 2.35 for Even and 7.35 for PP.
Requires 3 times more goals before you see a +ve goal diff affect.
PP points have 1/3 the value of Even points.
Yet we pay outrageous cap rates for PP production.
Brutal goal diff cap expenditure.
Seek out the best PK skaters available cause there Special team goal diff cap cost is cheapest.
Vegas acquired the best PK forwards available.
I like 2 pairs with HD dmen to establish above league average HD save% base.
Reduction in open shot density.
Bishop has never been a cup caliber goalie.
He allways had top HD sys teams.
Poor HD def can make a slightly above avg goalie look bad.
Lehotonen
Great HD def can make a below average goalie look good.
GA is a reflection of def triangles HD performance relative to CA count.
Bishop bad
Khodobin better than bishop
Methot elite
Polak Top 60
Should have 2 above average HD pairs.
Might allow forwards to generate offence needed to snag playoffs.