Morry83
14-90-91
- Mar 16, 2013
- 2,240
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Crazy predictions for next season
- Thread starter Kcb12345
- Start date
We sure need a step up season from some secondary scores and youth. Having one of Hintz, Robertson or AM step up to the big club would be great.
And that would be in addition to pleasant surprises from one or more of Nuke, Comeau and Pitlick in the scoring department.
And that would be in addition to pleasant surprises from one or more of Nuke, Comeau and Pitlick in the scoring department.
- Pitlick thrives in Montgomery's system and becomes a 25-goal scorer.
- Heiskanen and Johns become a good second defensive pairing.
- Seguin re-signs prior to the season.
- Michael Mersch makes the team and develops chemistry with Spezza and Janmark.
- Heiskanen and Johns become a good second defensive pairing.
- Seguin re-signs prior to the season.
- Michael Mersch makes the team and develops chemistry with Spezza and Janmark.
hagan88
Registered User
Toronto tanks and disgruntled Tavares wants out and we trade Sequin for Tavares at the deadline. Tavares disappears in the playoffs and Faksa wins Conn Smythe.
Are we predicting Nill actually bites his tongue while Monty reverses his policy of letting prospects get over cooked in the AHL? Sounds like he is thinking along those lines (and may have to if he doesn't pick up a UFA scoring forward)
Starry Knight
Tele-Wyatt
I hope so. It's a monumentally stupid policy. Stop wasting ELCs in the AHL and have them sink or swim in the NHL first.
beepeearr
@beepeearr
He's been saying it since the end of the season that the NHL has changed and that teams need younger players having big impacts on other teams. One of the reasons I think he hired montgomery is because he's let coaches make all lineup calls under Ruff and Hitch, and it meant some of our younger D never really developed. He's also said he intends to have more input on things like how the team plays and those roster decisions moving forward, as well as wanting to give younger players more of a chance
Kcb12345
Registered User
- Jun 6, 2017
- 29,275
- 22,498
I don't mind the Comeau signing since it's cheap, but I don't really understand it. Polak I assume is just there to be a physical experienced 7th dman that can come in when the kids struggle, but I do not like the signing at all. Polak is not an improvement over anyone. Maybe he is just there to stand in front of the net on the PK or go up against a bigger forward group (Jets for example)
joshik
In Duchene we believe
1. Roman Polak will broke the record in most hits in single season.
2. Nichushkin will be our point leader.
3. Janmark will have breakout season and prove that he is 2nd liner who scores 25+ goals
4. Miro wins the Calder and Norris and show that he is better than Erik.
5. Faksa find his offence and be next Couturier
6. Hanzal will be healty.
7. Seguin win the Maurice.
8. Benn win the Clancy.
9. Devin Shore will be in + and score 20 goals.
10. Julius score more points thaan Klinger
Bonus. We still miss the playoffs.
2. Nichushkin will be our point leader.
3. Janmark will have breakout season and prove that he is 2nd liner who scores 25+ goals
4. Miro wins the Calder and Norris and show that he is better than Erik.
5. Faksa find his offence and be next Couturier
6. Hanzal will be healty.
7. Seguin win the Maurice.
8. Benn win the Clancy.
9. Devin Shore will be in + and score 20 goals.
10. Julius score more points thaan Klinger
Bonus. We still miss the playoffs.
Benn and Seguin combine for 12 goals....How the **** do we miss the playoffs with all that?
Do we play without a goalie in net for 2/3 of the season?
LT
Global Moderator
- Jul 23, 2010
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AveryStar4Eva
Registered User
- Aug 28, 2014
- 7,453
- 5,782
1. We have eight players break 40 points (Benn, Seguin, Radulov, Klingberg, Nichushkin, Janmark, Faksa, Heiskanen)
2. Spezza completely falls off the map. Skating is to slow and doesn’t mesh well with Monty.
3. Hintz plays about half the games due to injuries, but doesn’t light the world on fire.
4. Khudobin looks lights out and gets around 35 games.
5. Honka plays very strong putting up around 25 points.
6. Two of Smith, Ritchie, Elie, or Dickinson get waived or traded.
7. Hanzal comes back mid way through the year to hold down the third line.
8. We make a big deadline splash.
Lines look like this going into the playoffs;
Benn - Seguin - Janmark
XXX - Faksa - Radulov
Comeau - Hanzal - Nichushkin
Shore - Dickinson - Pitlick
Smith - Spezza
Lindell - Klingberg
Heiskanen - Johns
Methot - Honka
Polak
2. Spezza completely falls off the map. Skating is to slow and doesn’t mesh well with Monty.
3. Hintz plays about half the games due to injuries, but doesn’t light the world on fire.
4. Khudobin looks lights out and gets around 35 games.
5. Honka plays very strong putting up around 25 points.
6. Two of Smith, Ritchie, Elie, or Dickinson get waived or traded.
7. Hanzal comes back mid way through the year to hold down the third line.
8. We make a big deadline splash.
Lines look like this going into the playoffs;
Benn - Seguin - Janmark
XXX - Faksa - Radulov
Comeau - Hanzal - Nichushkin
Shore - Dickinson - Pitlick
Smith - Spezza
Lindell - Klingberg
Heiskanen - Johns
Methot - Honka
Polak
joshik
In Duchene we believe
AveryStar4Eva
Registered User
- Aug 28, 2014
- 7,453
- 5,782
That would put him at 66th overall in defencemen scoring last year. Times be changing.
ZeHockeyFan
Registered User
- Apr 9, 2014
- 2,246
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MBTendy
Registered User
- May 6, 2009
- 8,800
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Don't think it's bad given his situation last year, and the fact he'll be on the 3rd pair for the upcoming season. It's a step in the right direction for a young dman.
Ub the Bub
Registered User
- Feb 9, 2010
- 464
- 179
If we win the first game of the season we're atleast reaching the conference semi-final, if we lose the first game we're gonna miss the playoffs.
oilerbear
Registered User
- Jun 2, 2008
- 3,168
- 199
When I started analyzing Hockey I took an imperical (real large ratio) non linear ( anti game theory) aproach to sports analysis.
I made critical observations relative to large ratio affects to the game of hockey.
1. Top 5 GA teams can win a cup with bottom 25-30 GF
TOP 5 GF teams can only win with better than top 15 GA
Superior GA teams achieve much larger % levels of playoffs ( rd16; rd8; Conf final; cup final) than Superior GF teams.
1a. Teams must achieve .31 evgf/60 more than the evga/60 established by def triangle.
1b. Player situation 3d matrix 512 groups of team, comp, ZS
(2D version copies are now around) we see the avg unit goal diff for varying from -26 to +26 and +/- ranges take it to -35 to +35.
1c. Off dmen create 2 play structures diffrent than the standard
(3f - 2D - 1G). Based on OZ, NZ, DZ location time off dmen can actually a rover (3fwd - 1R - 1D - 1G) or a 4th Fwd (4f - 1D - 1G)
When it comes to GA 1D is not a good idea. I talk to many WHL scouts about my theory. The ones I talk regularly to all believe Off dmen are not dmen but rovers.
1D. 40% of ZS is the coach deciding whether a player comes on the ice with or without pocession of puck. Which is the largest influence to a players CF - CA.
1e. Running a NZ trap causes the highest reduction in Zone entry.
And therefore reduction in CA. Forwards deep and Off dmen deep cause teams to fail in NZ trap execution.
1f. Quick transition passes ( not letting NZ trap set up) yeild High than avg Zone entry. Dmen skating up the puck allows opp to set up NZ trap and lower zone entry.
2. The violence of the Clarke, Leach, Stoughton flin Flon bombers was about penetrating to the net. Almost 50 year old observation.
This is the first part of def measure route tree. Breaking down mechanisms in +ve and -ve results that can direct you to any location on goal diff success map. ( non linear) avg HD sh goes in 17.5% (.825 save%) and avg LD sh goes in 3.5% (.965 save%)
A 17.5:3.5 ratio ie. 5:1 ratio.
My resulting HD theories mostly developed 11-13 years ago.
2a. High Danger shot theory: (home plate)
I noticed you could find a line in the sand we’re shooting for accuracy rewarded you more than volume shooting.
Thier are no Med danger shots. Data calculator sites ( copying, borrowing) and poorly executing my theories. Corsica, Nat stat, .....
2b. Elite HD dmen allow the lowest cummulative shot density scoring potential per CA. It has to realative to the CA.
The failings of fwds & Off dmen subject the D triangle (2D - 1) or line (1D - 1G) to CA rates.
2c. Dpairs establish the save% average ( expected save%) the Goalies performance is measured against. In a 30 shot game
7 avg HDsh and 23 avg LD SH = .932 save%
10.5 HD and 19.5 LD = .916
14.5 HD and 15.5 LD = .897
Poor HD sh/gm teams (bad defence) make it hard for thier goalies.
2D. Goalies are measured +/- save% performance relative to Dpairs save% avg established.
Data calculator sites presented save% avg established as xGA.
Once again completely failing to understand it was meant to be a save% measure for separating def affect of the d and goalie in a triangle (2-1) or line (1-1)
2e. On the GF side you want the forwards with the best Even HD shooting penetration. Real tough ( flin Flon bombers tough) not fighter tough. Be a team with high top 125 fwd production
(16 39p)
3. Table hockey goalie movement (tracking PH1) is the other path of GA success route tree map. Which leads to group of theories
3a. Open/ closed shot theory
3b. 0% corsi = (blocks + misses + closed shots)
3c. Elite 0% corsi dmen: highest % of (0% corsi)/CA
#1&2 flip flopping last 2 years Russell, DeHaan.
3d. Open sh scoring potential shot chart
3e. Open shot avg save% established by
3f. True goalie performance: +/- performance relative to open shot avg save % established by Dmen.
Spring 2014 I ran into mike Vallee on the water gun bridge of river rapids ride Disney Animal kingdom. We started talking hockey.
I started to explain some of my 20+ base hockey theories. He said he was involved in goalie play. So I explained stated I had identified the 2 key High ratio goal diff acters. He identified himself as the Dallas goalie coach. Told me he was on holidays with Shawn Horcoff friend from BCHL days. We discussed more and he asked me to forward my theories.
Team re organized likely leading to mis communication.
All this relates to my cup core theory the Dallas Stars would have been able to use 4 years before I saw its first real use this year.
I made critical observations relative to large ratio affects to the game of hockey.
1. Top 5 GA teams can win a cup with bottom 25-30 GF
TOP 5 GF teams can only win with better than top 15 GA
Superior GA teams achieve much larger % levels of playoffs ( rd16; rd8; Conf final; cup final) than Superior GF teams.
1a. Teams must achieve .31 evgf/60 more than the evga/60 established by def triangle.
1b. Player situation 3d matrix 512 groups of team, comp, ZS
(2D version copies are now around) we see the avg unit goal diff for varying from -26 to +26 and +/- ranges take it to -35 to +35.
1c. Off dmen create 2 play structures diffrent than the standard
(3f - 2D - 1G). Based on OZ, NZ, DZ location time off dmen can actually a rover (3fwd - 1R - 1D - 1G) or a 4th Fwd (4f - 1D - 1G)
When it comes to GA 1D is not a good idea. I talk to many WHL scouts about my theory. The ones I talk regularly to all believe Off dmen are not dmen but rovers.
1D. 40% of ZS is the coach deciding whether a player comes on the ice with or without pocession of puck. Which is the largest influence to a players CF - CA.
1e. Running a NZ trap causes the highest reduction in Zone entry.
And therefore reduction in CA. Forwards deep and Off dmen deep cause teams to fail in NZ trap execution.
1f. Quick transition passes ( not letting NZ trap set up) yeild High than avg Zone entry. Dmen skating up the puck allows opp to set up NZ trap and lower zone entry.
2. The violence of the Clarke, Leach, Stoughton flin Flon bombers was about penetrating to the net. Almost 50 year old observation.
This is the first part of def measure route tree. Breaking down mechanisms in +ve and -ve results that can direct you to any location on goal diff success map. ( non linear) avg HD sh goes in 17.5% (.825 save%) and avg LD sh goes in 3.5% (.965 save%)
A 17.5:3.5 ratio ie. 5:1 ratio.
My resulting HD theories mostly developed 11-13 years ago.
2a. High Danger shot theory: (home plate)
I noticed you could find a line in the sand we’re shooting for accuracy rewarded you more than volume shooting.
Thier are no Med danger shots. Data calculator sites ( copying, borrowing) and poorly executing my theories. Corsica, Nat stat, .....
2b. Elite HD dmen allow the lowest cummulative shot density scoring potential per CA. It has to realative to the CA.
The failings of fwds & Off dmen subject the D triangle (2D - 1) or line (1D - 1G) to CA rates.
2c. Dpairs establish the save% average ( expected save%) the Goalies performance is measured against. In a 30 shot game
7 avg HDsh and 23 avg LD SH = .932 save%
10.5 HD and 19.5 LD = .916
14.5 HD and 15.5 LD = .897
Poor HD sh/gm teams (bad defence) make it hard for thier goalies.
2D. Goalies are measured +/- save% performance relative to Dpairs save% avg established.
Data calculator sites presented save% avg established as xGA.
Once again completely failing to understand it was meant to be a save% measure for separating def affect of the d and goalie in a triangle (2-1) or line (1-1)
2e. On the GF side you want the forwards with the best Even HD shooting penetration. Real tough ( flin Flon bombers tough) not fighter tough. Be a team with high top 125 fwd production
(16 39p)
3. Table hockey goalie movement (tracking PH1) is the other path of GA success route tree map. Which leads to group of theories
3a. Open/ closed shot theory
3b. 0% corsi = (blocks + misses + closed shots)
3c. Elite 0% corsi dmen: highest % of (0% corsi)/CA
#1&2 flip flopping last 2 years Russell, DeHaan.
3d. Open sh scoring potential shot chart
3e. Open shot avg save% established by
3f. True goalie performance: +/- performance relative to open shot avg save % established by Dmen.
Spring 2014 I ran into mike Vallee on the water gun bridge of river rapids ride Disney Animal kingdom. We started talking hockey.
I started to explain some of my 20+ base hockey theories. He said he was involved in goalie play. So I explained stated I had identified the 2 key High ratio goal diff acters. He identified himself as the Dallas goalie coach. Told me he was on holidays with Shawn Horcoff friend from BCHL days. We discussed more and he asked me to forward my theories.
Team re organized likely leading to mis communication.
All this relates to my cup core theory the Dallas Stars would have been able to use 4 years before I saw its first real use this year.
oilerbear
Registered User
- Jun 2, 2008
- 3,168
- 199
A little hint who may have took guidance from me with expansion draft specific questions about my Cup Core Theory atbthe blog Lowetide run by TSN 1260,s Allan Mitchell since 05-06.
https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/murray-or-fleury.2218937/#post-131063635
Thier was a repeatative wondering about Fluery.
I had not visited video or data of his play since the cup win under a Murray an elite Table hockey movement goalie.
I was in the final year of 9 yrs of data chase and non linear capital based emperical modeling for coal power plant conversion anslysis in alberta.
What they had discovered was Fluery went from scatter movement to table hockey movement like Murray. Fluery had the open shot acceleration needed to be elite. He was now a #7 HD goalie.
Cup core Theory: expansion draft guidance from blog posts.
1. HD system coach (2 elite available)
Tippett and Gallant
Dallas: Montgomery ???
2. Top 10 HD goalie (1 available)
Fluery
Dallas:
Bishop #27 HD goalie
Khodobin #25 HD goalie.
3. 3+ top 60 HD dmen (9 available to Vegas)
3 top 10 Mcnabb, Stoner, Schmidt
2 top 25 Methot, TVR
2 top 45 Sbisa, C. Miller
2 top 60 Engelland Garrison.
Offensive dmen abandon free path to HD area yielding high HD sh rates. But we fen double the standard Open shot rates.
Dallas,s d established a well below average HD save% to perform around. Sub .910.
It is the brutal open shots rates off dmen subject thevgoalie to that is not fair.
Methot is a unique dman in that he can individually HD defend successfully in a 1R - 1D - 1G structure.
Look at Karlsdons unit diff number without Methot.
Polak is a fringe top 60 HD Dman. Great cup core add.
(theory: off dmen are OFFENSIVE)
Off dmen generate even offence 4 times less effectively than forwards. 270-300 fwds generate offence than most dmen. Puck in fwds ASAP.
Sbisa a top 45 HD dman till injury is still available.
Martin was a HD dman who could cover (1R - 1D - 1G). Structure playing 2nd comp with burns the 2 years before.
He is still a strong HD sys dman canidate.
4. Top 8 team in Cummulative Top 125 fwd production (16g 39p)
There is 185 groups (16g 39p) of Top 125 fwd production from the top 125 fwds. Mcdavid = 2.65
(5 available in exp) Neal, Perron, Smith, Marchesault, Eakin Top 125 1 yr in Dallas. Plus prospects that would be clear Top 125 with increased. PP & EV TOI. Karlsdon, Haula, Tuch.
Dallas is well above needed gf production.
Constantly fixing a thing that does not need to be fixed.
5. +ve goal diff special teams.
Even g/60 = 2.35
PP GF/60 =7.35
So break even is 2.35 for Even and 7.35 for PP.
Requires 3 times more goals before you see a +ve goal diff affect.
PP points have 1/3 the value of Even points.
Yet we pay outrageous cap rates for PP production.
Brutal goal diff cap expenditure.
Seek out the best PK skaters available cause there Special team goal diff cap cost is cheapest.
Vegas acquired the best PK forwards available.
I like 2 pairs with HD dmen to establish above league average HD save% base.
Reduction in open shot density.
Bishop has never been a cup caliber goalie.
He allways had top HD sys teams.
Poor HD def can make a slightly above avg goalie look bad.
Lehotonen
Great HD def can make a below average goalie look good.
GA is a reflection of def triangles HD performance relative to CA count.
Bishop bad
Khodobin better than bishop
Methot elite
Polak Top 60
Should have 2 above average HD pairs.
Might allow forwards to generate offence needed to snag playoffs.
https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/murray-or-fleury.2218937/#post-131063635
Thier was a repeatative wondering about Fluery.
I had not visited video or data of his play since the cup win under a Murray an elite Table hockey movement goalie.
I was in the final year of 9 yrs of data chase and non linear capital based emperical modeling for coal power plant conversion anslysis in alberta.
What they had discovered was Fluery went from scatter movement to table hockey movement like Murray. Fluery had the open shot acceleration needed to be elite. He was now a #7 HD goalie.
Cup core Theory: expansion draft guidance from blog posts.
1. HD system coach (2 elite available)
Tippett and Gallant
Dallas: Montgomery ???
2. Top 10 HD goalie (1 available)
Fluery
Dallas:
Bishop #27 HD goalie
Khodobin #25 HD goalie.
3. 3+ top 60 HD dmen (9 available to Vegas)
3 top 10 Mcnabb, Stoner, Schmidt
2 top 25 Methot, TVR
2 top 45 Sbisa, C. Miller
2 top 60 Engelland Garrison.
Offensive dmen abandon free path to HD area yielding high HD sh rates. But we fen double the standard Open shot rates.
Dallas,s d established a well below average HD save% to perform around. Sub .910.
It is the brutal open shots rates off dmen subject thevgoalie to that is not fair.
Methot is a unique dman in that he can individually HD defend successfully in a 1R - 1D - 1G structure.
Look at Karlsdons unit diff number without Methot.
Polak is a fringe top 60 HD Dman. Great cup core add.
(theory: off dmen are OFFENSIVE)
Off dmen generate even offence 4 times less effectively than forwards. 270-300 fwds generate offence than most dmen. Puck in fwds ASAP.
Sbisa a top 45 HD dman till injury is still available.
Martin was a HD dman who could cover (1R - 1D - 1G). Structure playing 2nd comp with burns the 2 years before.
He is still a strong HD sys dman canidate.
4. Top 8 team in Cummulative Top 125 fwd production (16g 39p)
There is 185 groups (16g 39p) of Top 125 fwd production from the top 125 fwds. Mcdavid = 2.65
(5 available in exp) Neal, Perron, Smith, Marchesault, Eakin Top 125 1 yr in Dallas. Plus prospects that would be clear Top 125 with increased. PP & EV TOI. Karlsdon, Haula, Tuch.
Dallas is well above needed gf production.
Constantly fixing a thing that does not need to be fixed.
5. +ve goal diff special teams.
Even g/60 = 2.35
PP GF/60 =7.35
So break even is 2.35 for Even and 7.35 for PP.
Requires 3 times more goals before you see a +ve goal diff affect.
PP points have 1/3 the value of Even points.
Yet we pay outrageous cap rates for PP production.
Brutal goal diff cap expenditure.
Seek out the best PK skaters available cause there Special team goal diff cap cost is cheapest.
Vegas acquired the best PK forwards available.
I like 2 pairs with HD dmen to establish above league average HD save% base.
Reduction in open shot density.
Bishop has never been a cup caliber goalie.
He allways had top HD sys teams.
Poor HD def can make a slightly above avg goalie look bad.
Lehotonen
Great HD def can make a below average goalie look good.
GA is a reflection of def triangles HD performance relative to CA count.
Bishop bad
Khodobin better than bishop
Methot elite
Polak Top 60
Should have 2 above average HD pairs.
Might allow forwards to generate offence needed to snag playoffs.
brighteststars
Registered User
- Feb 11, 2014
- 791
- 375
ZeHockeyFan
Registered User
- Apr 9, 2014
- 2,246
- 497
Stars start off horribly a la 2007-08 season. Nill is fired a la Doug Armstrong during a horrible losing streak, one of which is a 5-4 loss at the hands of Minnesota after leading 4-0. Stars hire Shane Churla as GM, who rights the ship by doing basically nothing and the team wins the cup.
