Player Discussion Craig Anderson vs low Shot Against/GP

[DanyHeatley]

Problem: How does Craig Anderson perform when we give up low shot against per game?

Hypothesis: Whenever we give up low shot against per game, Anderson tends to play below his average.

Variables:
league average for low shot against
GAA
SV%
W/L record

1st: Ive chosen to collect stats from the previous 7 seasons. The league average for low shot against from 2011/12-present is 26.5 - rounded it up to 27. Ive gathered this data by calculating the average of league leaders that give up the lowest shots against/game for each of the following 7 seasons (ie CAR 1st with 28.9 SA/GP this season, NJD was 1st with 23.1 SA/GP in 2012/13 season etc so on and so forth)

2nd: For each of the past 7 seasons, I've collected Anderson's win/lose record, GAA and SV% for games where he faced 27 shots or less. Games where he was pulled or games that he didnt start were not included as it would skew the stats.

RECORD:

Season	<27SA/GP	Record	GAA	SV%
2011/12	19 games	6 - 13 -0	2.40	.895
2012/13	12 games	5 - 6 - 1	3.66	.903
2013/14	7 games	1 - 5 - 1	3.71	.828
2014/15	6 games	1 - 4 - 1	2.33	.906
2015/16	12 games	6 - 5 - 1	2.25	.901
2016/17	12 games	9 - 3 - 0	2.00	.913
2017/18	9 games	3 - 6 -0	2.56	.875

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TOTALS:
77 games
31 - 42 - 4 record
GAA 2.70
SV% .889

In conclusion,although a small sample, going 31 - 42 - 4 with a 2.70 GAA and SV% of .889 in 77 games where we give up 27 or less shots is a pretty brutal record/stat for a starting goaltender. It is clearly well below Anderson's career numbers in Ottawa and also waaaay below the league average for a starting goaltender.

Solution: Anderson has been notoriously well known for playing lights out whenever we give up a high volume of shots/game (research and stats to back this up will follow). Do we ditch the 1 - 3 - 1 system and go run and gun ala Maclean style while we let anderson get hammered with shots? or do we trust Boucher to develop a hybrid system that'll allow us to play run and gun when the right opportunity comes and also, at the same time, be able to shut down opponents when the game calls for it? We now have a "Duchene", Karlson, Hoffman and Stone in their prime, a good supporting cast in Brassard, Ryan, JGP, Smith, Phanuef, Ceci, Pyatt, and a handful of promising prospects.



I hate to love that I hate and love this team.

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[Do Make Say Think]

Anderson isn't the goalie we should be looking to accommodate I'd day: he isn't done but he is on the down slope for sure.

Nice analysis though!

 

[Uchiha]

Shouldn't have signed him to an extension. Best goalie is Sens history though.

 

[Sun God Nika]

Yup, he doesn't play very well unless he sees a lot of pucks, if he does get a lot of shots then that means the team isn't playing very well. Not the goalie for this team, nice extension tho.

 

[Karl Prime]

He would have been awful on those early 2000 teams that gave up like 24 shots a game.

 

[Punchbowl]

Thanks for all that data collection!

I wonder how many of these games had the team give up an early lead prompting the other team to stop pressing offensively?

For the sake of argument (since I don't have the statistics), let's say that in most of these games Anderson gave up 2 or 3 goals in the first period. If we didn't quickly tie the game, the other team might then stop attacking and wouldn't rack up many shots over the remaining two periods -- meaning they'd finish with an unusually low number of shots.


As a result, you'd be looking at a sample biased towards high goals against and few shots (hence low S%).


Unfortunately, the only way to know for sure would require gathering more statistics (first period goals for/against) in those games.



Edit: the reason I assume the other team stops pressing with the lead is the same reason our corsi is frequently dreadful when we win -- many NHL teams opt for defensive play once they take a 2 goal lead (we're especially guilty of this).

 

[Korpse]

I've seen some work done on by the numbers board demonstrating the decrease in goaltender sv% when they see less shots. I can't seem to find it right now so it's hard to say how Anderson's numbers compare to others but that does seem low even when you consider an expect dip. The record is also concerning, as @Anaxagoras pointed out there is likely score effects in play here. There very slight change in GAA (2.67 vs 2.70) leads me to believe the record has a lot to do with score effects.

 

[PeterSidorkiewicz]

Anderson has said a few times in multiple interviews dating back to his Florida days that he prefers to see more shots per game. Nice analysis on this.

Actually, I would venture to say a lot of goalies feel this way. A nice sweet spot of shots or lots of shots from non high quality areas to get that feel for the puck and get into a rythym.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

"A watched pot never boils" applies here. Whether it's sitting on the bench for most of the game, or a goalie standing around with few shots, players generally play better when they're in the middle of the action. That's why Brodeur was special...he was one of those rare guys who was happy doing nothing for most of the game.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Thought:

Do we know of any goaltender that performs markedly better when facing a lower total amount of shots?

I remember when Miller was traded to the Blues, a few Blues fans said it wouldn't work because Miller does better when facing many shots. They were absolutely right.

I can't think of a goalie who's gone from a team where he faced a lot shots to one where he did not AND fared better.

 

[DanyHeatley]

Thought:

Do we know of any goaltender that performs markedly better when facing a lower total amount of shots?

I remember when Miller was traded to the Blues, a few Blues fans said it wouldn't work because Miller does better when facing many shots. They were absolutely right.

I can't think of a goalie who's gone from a team where he faced a lot shots to one where he did not AND fared better.

Brodeur probably. NJD in the early 2000s up til 2013 dominated the league in allowing the least amount of shots per game. A consistent top 10 in the league. If you even look at his stats during that span, he averaged something like 2.25-50 GAA with .910-20 SV

 

[DanyHeatley]

so far 23 shots in 27min TOI, no goals. see the correlation

 

[jbeck5]

Didn't elliott put up his best sv% in the low SA blues system? Didn't lalime have his better Sv% in ottawa's defensive system over chicago and buffalo's scrambly systems?

Some goalies can regularly allow only 0-2 goals when facing under 20-25 shots.

 

[jbeck5]

so far 23 shots in 27min TOI, no goals. see the correlation

That's not the type of goalie you want if you're trying to own the ice and control play. The better your team gets, the worse he gets and the more he loses...not a recipe for success. Good for a bubble team trying to squeak in.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

It just shows, that goalies can be 'specialists' just like skaters.

 

[Xspyrit]

Number of shots means nothing although I always said that Andy was a better goalie when he was facing more shots (maybe someone remember I talked about that several times). What is important is the shots quality and location.

The Uncomfortable Possibility with Craig Anderson

Anderson’s Situational SV%

Year	Low Danger SV% (Rank)	Medium Danger SV%	High Danger SV%
17-18	97.44 (19th)	88.14 (30th)	68.57 (30th)
16-17	98.21 (11th)	92.14 (16th)	84.62 (3rd)
15-16	98.54 (5th)	91.75 (29th)	77.19 (29th)
14-15	98.16 (13th)	92.83 (12th)	80.77 (14th)
13-14	97.87 (19th)	94.46 (3rd)	75 (28th)
12-13	99.21 (1st)	95.07 (1st)	78.26 (19th)

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These stats are ranked out of between 30-36 goalies (1500 minimum minutes played). Numbers do not include last night’s game

Usually, Andy is a good goalie to save the "first shot", the regular scoring chances but he's struggling vs all kind of shots this year.

I would really like to see this team with top notch goaltending. Andy has provided solid goaltending over the years (which was about league average despite what some seemed to think) but I'm talking about another level of goaltending.

IMO Dorion will have no choice to acquire a great goalie, or all that he has done would be in vain.

 

[Punchbowl]

That's a very interesting article, thanks for posting Xspyrit.

Those stats are enlightening. I find it hard to blame the goalies for any individual GA surrendered on a HDSC, but cumulatively it looks like the team deserves better.

I don't think goaltending is the only issue with this team, or necessarily even the most significant contributor to our nosedive, but it certainly hasn't helped.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Number of shots means nothing although I always said that Andy was a better goalie when he was facing more shots (maybe someone remember I talked about that several times). What is important is the shots quality and location.

The Uncomfortable Possibility with Craig Anderson

Anderson’s Situational SV%

Year	Low Danger SV% (Rank)	Medium Danger SV%	High Danger SV%
17-18	97.44 (19th)	88.14 (30th)	68.57 (30th)
16-17	98.21 (11th)	92.14 (16th)	84.62 (3rd)
15-16	98.54 (5th)	91.75 (29th)	77.19 (29th)
14-15	98.16 (13th)	92.83 (12th)	80.77 (14th)
13-14	97.87 (19th)	94.46 (3rd)	75 (28th)
12-13	99.21 (1st)	95.07 (1st)	78.26 (19th)

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Last year was uncommonly good in the High Danger zone (84.62) and this year is uncommonly bad.