Hayton’s statistical output in this tournament was notably very poor, relative to the precedent set by his comparables in previous years. It was easily the worst of the bunch, and by a pretty large margin. I went through the last ten drafts and he was the worst. I’m pretty sure he was 40% lower than the 2nd worst guy. I didn’t tally anything up, but it looks like the average production rate was about double his.
I was not making a statement about WJC production as a measure of predicting future NHL success. That’s not the point. The point was that Hayton had a really disappointing tournament. If anyone’s feeling disappointed, it’s peoabbly because precedent begged for much better results. Given his age and draft position, we all should have expected at least a point per game.
Looked at his Draft Year CHL production relative to comps:
Went back 12 years. Nino Niederreiter, Bo Horvat, Jake Virtanen and Pavel Zacha are the only CHL forwards drafted in the top ten without being at least 1ppg in their draft season plus playoffs combined. Horvat and Virtanen missed by one point and each had 40 or more goals. Niederreiter also had greater than 40 goals. Both he and Zacha were rookie imports from Europe.
So the only guy as underwhelming statistically as Hayton in that group was Zacha. The other three had factors that made their production much more impressive.
Production-wise, Hayton is rock-bottom for draft eligible CHL forwards taken in the top ten over the last twelve years. Production-wise, he is also rock-bottom for Canadian forwards playing in the WJC after being selected in the top five, the year prior.
Does this prove he was a bad pick or won’t be a great NHL player? Nope. But his relative draft year production and relative WJC production certainly don’t make me FEEL any better about this pick.