Phoenix CXXXVII - and the band plays on

[PredsHead]

Ozanian’s $50 million is a guess. Based upon estimates of interest costs and such. Doesn’t bother to cite any actual sources for it yet people are ready to treat it as a factual number.



The article does list an operating loss of $11 million. I would be more interested in taking that number and comparing it to similar data from previous years to see if the franchise is making any progress.

Also from Forbes so unless their practices have changed they should be at least calculated the same way. These are loses in Millions. From this its pretty easy to see why Bettman was so adamant about the subsidy, the outlook before and after is pretty bleak. All told its $156.4M in loses over the last 10 years, or $15.6M a year. Again that is theoretically not including any taxes or interest paid on non-arena debt.

2009 -18.5
2010 -20.1
2011 -24
2012 -20.6
2013 -8.9
2014 -4.6
2015 -4.5
2016 -8
2017 -19
2018 -10.6

 

[TheLegend]

Also from Forbes so unless their practices have changed they should be at least calculated the same way. These are loses in Millions. From this its pretty easy to see why Bettman was so adamant about the subsidy, the outlook before and after is pretty bleak. All told its $156.4M in loses over the last 10 years, or $15.6M a year. Again that is theoretically not including any taxes or interest paid on non-arena debt.

2009 -18.5
2010 -20.1
2011 -24
2012 -20.6
2013 -8.9
2014 -4.6
2015 -4.5
2016 -8
2017 -19
2018 -10.6

Thanks for putting all that together. Over the years there have so many numbers (usually exaggerated) that have been tossed out there at random this is refreshing.

What's interesting in that list off hand are the years 2009 - 13 when the NHL had ownership.

 

[aqib]

They can’t, but provide a better source and I’m sure we’ll use it. As it is, we’ll use the Bad Forbes figures from years ago as a baseline and figure up or down from there based on our personal feelings of the situation.

At least Forbes is neutral. They don’t care if the Coyotes move or not. That’s why I like them, outside of their clout in the non hockey world

I think the best thing to do is take the last couple of team sales and see what the Forbes valuation was just before the sale. For some reason I remember a couple of sales where the price was about 20% higher than the value Forbes put on there. So you could apply that to the revenue. Teams generally sell for about 4x revenue its a good way to back into a revenue figure.

Forbes would have more access to the debt information because there are databases lenders (banks and private lenders) use which have the orignal terms of debt if it had been shopped around. (I worked in this area a few lifetimes ago). If the debt had been shopped around the term sheet would have been posted on something like LPC LoanConnector so Forbes would have access to it (which is too expensive for regular people to subscribe to). If Barroway had just negotiated directly with one lender than it probably wouldn't be out.

 

[PredsHead]

Thanks for putting all that together. Over the years there have so many numbers (usually exaggerated) that have been tossed out there at random this is refreshing.

What's interesting in that list off hand are the years 2009 - 13 when the NHL had ownership.

No problem, and you you are right it does make you wonder what was going for the years the NHL owned the team. What was also interesting was when I compared this to the attendance figures, it seems fluctuations in attendance don't seem to make a huge impact to the bottom line. Without the subsidy the highest attendance years would have still produced a pretty hefty loss. It pretty well vindicates what Bettman was saying about Glendale being untenable. Here are the attendance figures if interested.

2009 - 14875
2010 -11989
2011 - 12188
2012 - 12421
2013 - 13924
2014 - 13776
2015 - 13345
2016 - 13350
2017 - 13095
2018 - 13041

 

[aqib]

One take away I get from this interview is that Arizona fans should be happy that Cohen is there instead of LeBlanc So at least you're getting honest answers about where you are and no more "two weeks." Remember the interview when LeBlanc said "I've heard it enough times on social media 'don't say two weeks' so I won't say two weeks" and then ended the interview with "so we should have something here in a couple of weeks oh man I said it again"

So you have more hope because you have a guy who isn't full of feces.

 

[Ciao]

The whole Coyotes-ownership drama is so abnormal that it defies any prognosis or predictions.

These are not normal business cycles and economic forces at work. There is an underlying agenda that is not transparent and is driving the funding strategy with respect to team financing and ownership.

I've already hazarded so many wrong guesses as to what is happening that I'm sick and tired of hazarding wrong guesses, and I'm not up to it anymore.

I'm now in the mode of believing what I'm seeing, which is that the Coyotes are still up and running in Glendale despite a decade's worth of dire predictions, and I'm expecting the status quo to continue until and unless something unforeseen changes things.

AFAIK, that might never happen.

 

[mesamonster]

One take away I get from this interview is that Arizona fans should be happy that Cohen is there instead of Barroway. So at least you're getting honest answers about where you are and no more "two weeks." Remember the interview when Barroway said "I've heard it enough times on social media 'don't say two weeks' so I won't say two weeks" and then ended the interview with "so we should have something here in a couple of weeks oh man I said it again"

So you have more hope because you have a guy who isn't full of feces.

Are you suggesting that Barroway is no longer the real owner? My take away is this is further confirmation that the public pronouncements issued by the Barroway regime were nothing more than flowery gibberish. Not one of them had a word of detail, they were simply PSA`s all done with the intention of deception and obfuscation. Internally, they were asking themselves,"what do we say this time to keep the public and the fans in the dark?" Barroway has never been much involved in the public eye, rather he has sent out his surrogates to propagate more half facts and half truths. My question still remains, if this franchise is worth what some people think it is, why are there no suitors willing too assume the debt of an asset that is theoretically worth more?

 

[Dale Gribble]

The Coyotes last shot at staying in Arizona ended when the City of Phoenix decided to help Sarver pay for renovations of Talking Stick Resort Arena, and it didn’t include anything to make it suitable long term for hockey.

Time for the League to get Tillman Fertitta on board, and move the team to Houston.

 

[Dirty Old Man]

The Coyotes last shot at staying in Arizona ended when the City of Phoenix decided to help Sarver pay for renovations of Talking Stick Resort Arena, and it didn’t include anything to make it suitable long term for hockey.

Time for the League to get Tillman Fertitta on board, and move the team to Houston.

The same Tillman Fertitta that believes "hockey struggles south of the Mason Dixon line"...where Houston is very much located? *That* Tillman Fertitta? Again, for those of you who cling to "Glendale won't work" but ignore Fertitta's statement, you gotta wonder why you do...

 

[gstommylee]

The same Tillman Fertitta that believes "hockey struggles south of the Mason Dixon line"...where Houston is very much located? *That* Tillman Fertitta? Again, for those of you who cling to "Glendale won't work" but ignore Fertitta's statement, you gotta wonder why you do...

That's called negotiating through Media. Here's the problem unless coyotes gets a huge $$$ willing to drop a billion for team and arena, the team will end up at some point relocating. It'll come down to who blinks first Fertitta or the league.

 

[Dirty Old Man]

That's called negotiating through Media. Here's the problem unless coyotes gets a huge $$$ willing to drop a billion for team and arena, the team will end up at some point relocating. It'll come down to who blinks first Fertitta or the league.

...unless it doesn't, and as the years go by the only Houston rumors you hear are right here. Right now google 'Houston NHL' and there's nothing newer than 2 months. Not weeks. Months.

 

[TheLegend]

...unless it doesn't, and as the years go by the only Houston rumors you hear are right here. Right now google 'Houston NHL' and there's nothing newer than 2 months. Not weeks. Months.

Oh c’mon..... you know that doesn’t mean anything.

It’ll be “confirmation” that something is definitely in the works for a move to Houston this coming fall.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

That's called negotiating through Media. Here's the problem unless coyotes gets a huge $$$ willing to drop a billion for team and arena, the team will end up at some point relocating. It'll come down to who blinks first Fertitta or the league.

Not sure I buy that. The team has stayed put for so long, even on year to year, even after it seemed ownership completely burned their bridges in Glendale.

If they can somehow limp to a new ownership structure, their best bet right now is to sign a longer term lease in Glendale.

The problem is the ownership structure has changed so often, and the team has been for sale in one form or another for at least a decade, so that new owner is really hard to find at this point.

But Gary's rolodex hasnt let this team down yet, and I've stopped underestimating this franchise a while ago.

 

[MNNumbers]

Not sure I buy that. The team has stayed put for so long, even on year to year, even after it seemed ownership completely burned their bridges in Glendale.

If they can somehow limp to a new ownership structure, their best bet right now is to sign a longer term lease in Glendale.

The problem is the ownership structure has changed so often, and the team has been for sale in one form or another for at least a decade, so that new owner is really hard to find at this point.

But Gary's rolodex hasnt let this team down yet, and I've stopped underestimating this franchise a while ago.

There is NO need for a long term lease in Glendale. NONE whatsoever. Glendale is happy with the current situation. Very happy. They would be happy with a multi-year deal, too, but COG is not going to be giving away subsidies any more.

Team doesn't need a long term deal. There is no benefit. The only people who really care about the lease situation are us, right here. I don't think the year by year nature of the lease affects things in Glendale with the finances of the Yotes to any appreciable degree.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

There is NO need for a long term lease in Glendale. NONE whatsoever. Glendale is happy with the current situation. Very happy. They would be happy with a multi-year deal, too, but COG is not going to be giving away subsidies any more.

Team doesn't need a long term deal. There is no benefit. The only people who really care about the lease situation are us, right here. I don't think the year by year nature of the lease affects things in Glendale with the finances of the Yotes to any appreciable degree.

I said longer, not long. Like max 5 years.

I try to choose my wording very carefully anywhere i write

 

[Dirty Old Man]

There is NO need for a long term lease in Glendale. NONE whatsoever. Glendale is happy with the current situation. Very happy. They would be happy with a multi-year deal, too, but COG is not going to be giving away subsidies any more.

I've seen no evidence my apartment complex analogy doesn't still hold. Is it viable forever? Well, it's not anyone's first choice, you'd rather have your own house/arena, but it's fine as long as it's needed. And they're certainly happy to have the 40-odd dates filled every winter.

 

[PredsHead]

There is NO need for a long term lease in Glendale. NONE whatsoever. Glendale is happy with the current situation. Very happy. They would be happy with a multi-year deal, too, but COG is not going to be giving away subsidies any more.

Team doesn't need a long term deal. There is no benefit. The only people who really care about the lease situation are us, right here. I don't think the year by year nature of the lease affects things in Glendale with the finances of the Yotes to any appreciable degree.

Exactly, without a subsidy there would be no reason for either party to be in a longer term lease. Right now co-habitation is a better scenario for both than marriage would be. Breakups are messy, divorces get downright ugly and litigious.

 

[mesamonster]

Not sure I buy that. The team has stayed put for so long, even on year to year, even after it seemed ownership completely burned their bridges in Glendale.

If they can somehow limp to a new ownership structure, their best bet right now is to sign a longer term lease in Glendale.

The problem is the ownership structure has changed so often, and the team has been for sale in one form or another for at least a decade, so that new owner is really hard to find at this point.

But Gary's rolodex hasnt let this team down yet, and I've stopped underestimating this franchise a while ago.

Seriously? Gary`s rolodex has done nothing but let this team down! The ice clowns into the fumbling Andy Barroway? You couldn`t make up two groups that are less qualified to be NHL ownership material than these imposters. I always thought that the first criteria for strong ownership emanated from the back pocket. From there we could all agree or disagree about their pedigree and passion. In the Coyotes case, perhaps there has been some passion, unfortunately the wallet has been an issue. Good luck GB, you are the issue with this operation and your pawn AB is about to be taken in this game of NHL chess!

 

[TheLegend]

Seriously? Gary`s rolodex has done nothing but let this team down! The ice clowns into the fumbling Andy Barroway? You couldn`t make up two groups that are less qualified to be NHL ownership material than these imposters. I always thought that the first criteria for strong ownership emanated from the back pocket. From there we could all agree or disagree about their pedigree and passion. In the Coyotes case, perhaps there has been some passion, unfortunately the wallet has been an issue. Good luck GB, you are the issue with this operation and your pawn AB is about to be taken in this game of NHL chess!

That rolodex has kept the team in Arizona ten years longer than you and.... a lot of others around here.... have felt they deserved to be.

And considering your admitted closeness to some of the players that have been involved with the Coyotes saga over the past decade I have to call into question your objectiveness about anything moving forward.

 

[objectiveposter]

the big difference between now and before is that the debt the team is carrying is larger than the franchise value. In the past owners like ice edge could absorb some losses knowing that once they sold the team they would be made whole.... that is no longer the case with the franchise. Even if Barroway is only losing 10 mill a year...that is before interest and with a high risk asset his interest payments could easily be north of 10 million which means he is losing 20 mill a year with losses compounding. It is simply not sustainable hence the comments where he needs partners. Does this mean the team is moving? No. But to suggest the team can stay status quo indefinitely and just keep signing 1 year deals with glendale is not realistic. Barroway is not that rich and is a shrewd businessman... he is not going to sit back and take 20 million dollar losses every year.

There HAS to be an injection of investment into this team sooner rather than later.

 

[Jeffrey93]

How much is a portable franchise's value going up every year?

That's the only way I can understand why anyone is still owning a team in this market. They're looking for an arena and looking for partners or to sell completely. If I'm in that state....and the team is losing big dollars (as they apparently still are), I'm looking to stop the bleeding immediately and get out of that market or sell to someone in another market.

The ONLY reason I can see someone taking this and staying put..is that the losses are less than the franchise value + the value of portability are. Lose $10M for 5 years....but during those 5 years the going price for a portable NHL franchise increased by $80M....so you're ahead $30M.

If that isn't the case......I don't understand how this is still happening. Unless the league is comp'ing them somehow.

 

[Bookie21]

the big difference between now and before is that the debt the team is carrying is larger than the franchise value..

No it's not

 

[mouser]

the big difference between now and before is that the debt the team is carrying is larger than the franchise value. In the past owners like ice edge could absorb some losses knowing that once they sold the team they would be made whole.... that is no longer the case with the franchise. Even if Barroway is only losing 10 mill a year...that is before interest and with a high risk asset his interest payments could easily be north of 10 million which means he is losing 20 mill a year with losses compounding. It is simply not sustainable hence the comments where he needs partners. Does this mean the team is moving? No. But to suggest the team can stay status quo indefinitely and just keep signing 1 year deals with glendale is not realistic. Barroway is not that rich and is a shrewd businessman... he is not going to sit back and take 20 million dollar losses every year.

There HAS to be an injection of investment into this team sooner rather than later.

How much debt are they carrying, and what’s the franchise value?

 

[mesamonster]

How much debt are they carrying, and what’s the franchise value?

No it's not

So tell us all, how much debt is this franchise carrying? If this franchise is worth more than the debt, then where are the investors/partners who would share your belief that this is an attractive deal?

 

[mesamonster]

That rolodex has kept the team in Arizona ten years longer than you and.... a lot of others around here.... have felt they deserved to be.

And considering your admitted closeness to some of the players that have been involved with the Coyotes saga over the past decade I have to call into question your objectiveness about anything moving forward.

Gee Legend, that's pretty harsh! My sources are perhaps no different than your own, so why do my opinions not matter yet yours do?