Covid-19: The "Immunity" Question

AttackBeacher

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Feb 1, 2019
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Ill be honest my wife is a nurse so she passes this stuff to me when she sees it or when it moves through her inbox.

If this is the stuff that interests you I'd throw a follow to @youyanggu

He's lights out with taking away all the emotion and just dealing with what is actually happening and not worrying about what we think we know, political angles, etc. He all data and numbers and non of the hyperbole that drives me mad among some out there.
 

periferal

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Jul 5, 2007
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Circling back on the immunity question...

You don't need scientists to prove what minimal observation can do:

  • As of today there have been about 70 million proven worldwide Covid cases.
  • Of that they think maybe 20 people have gotten Covid a 2nd time...
  • ...and some of those have been proven to be incorrect.
  • And the first "confirmed" reinfection of Covid in the US was reported in October - 9 months after the first reported case in the US
  • And we haven't even talked about all the asymptomatic and minor cases that never were proven/recorded

In summation...70+million PROVEN cases, and maybe twenty (20) reinfections. That's a 0.00000029 reinfection rate in toughly a year of tracking (again not even counting the asymptomatic cases). And again there are questions still unanswered in almost all the "reinfection" cases.

I'd say when you add it all up immunity essentially lasts at least a year and probably a lot longer than that
 

Knave

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Mar 6, 2007
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Herd immunity certainly worked with measles when it was first identified in 9th century (likely pre-dates that) and we got herd immunity to it and everything was hunky dory. We didn't need to develop a vaccine for it, no no. Herd immunity worked.

In 1978, CDC set a goal to eliminate measles from the United States by 1982. Although this goal was not met, widespread use of measles vaccine drastically reduced the disease rates. By 1981, the number of reported measles cases was 80% less compared with the previous year.

History of Measles.

And to be clear here:
In the decade before 1963 when a vaccine became available, nearly all children got measles by the time they were 15 years of age. It is estimated 3 to 4 million people in the United States were infected each year. Also each year, among reported cases, an estimated 400 to 500 people died, 48,000 were hospitalized, and 1,000 suffered encephalitis (swelling of the brain) from measles.

So yes, everyone was getting infected but that didn't stop it from taking a toll every single year.

Herd immunity is a f***ing fantasy based not in evidence but pseudo-scientific bullshit. The only time herd immunity has been seriously talked about in science is in reference to vaccines. You vaccinate enough people that everyone is protected (like with measles in America until parents stopped vaccinating their kids and now we have the occasional outbreak pop up, yay antivaxxers! From 0 measles deaths a year to a couple here and there every few years).
 

Mario_is_BACK!!

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Nov 29, 2003
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Circling back on the immunity question...

You don't need scientists to prove what minimal observation can do:

  • As of today there have been about 70 million proven worldwide Covid cases.
  • Of that they think maybe 20 people have gotten Covid a 2nd time...
  • ...and some of those have been proven to be incorrect.
  • And the first "confirmed" reinfection of Covid in the US was reported in October - 9 months after the first reported case in the US
  • And we haven't even talked about all the asymptomatic and minor cases that never were proven/recorded

In summation...70+million PROVEN cases, and maybe twenty (20) reinfections. That's a 0.00000029 reinfection rate in toughly a year of tracking (again not even counting the asymptomatic cases). And again there are questions still unanswered in almost all the "reinfection" cases.

I'd say when you add it all up immunity essentially lasts at least a year and probably a lot longer than that

I know someone who had it twice and was hit hard again. Unless it’s a fluke and he just HAPPENS to be one of the “20” I’m guessing second infection rates are higher than you’re putting here.
 

periferal

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Jul 5, 2007
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I know someone who had it twice and was hit hard again. Unless it’s a fluke and he just HAPPENS to be one of the “20” I’m guessing second infection rates are higher than you’re putting here.

Odds are it was a fluke.

Just go on to Google and do a search for how many people have been PROVEN to have gotten it again. And even some of those "reinfections" have questions around them like...Did the people get a false-negative/positive in one of the tests, or did the virus not fully leave the body (despite it looking like it was gone) and just flare up again.

Literally late summer I had a call with a doctor in my practice (a massive one) and he said if I had Covid again the case would be written up in the New England Journal of Medicine.

You're talking over 70 million confirmed cases (and probably tens of millions more unconfirmed) and they *think* maybe like 20 have gotten it again. 20 out of 70,000,000+. Even if 100,000 had gotten it again confirmed that's still only a minuscule 0.0014 reinfection rate.

And even if there are lots of asymptomatic/untested/unhospitalized/unreported 2nd cases...It speaks well to that fact that most of the 2nd cases are not as bad as the first.

Literally no matter how you slice it...The evidence is overwhelming that either there are barely any 2nd cases (so good immunity), and/or those 2nd cases are overwhelmingly not as bad.
 
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Snauen

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Dec 27, 2017
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I know someone who had it twice and was hit hard again. Unless it’s a fluke and he just HAPPENS to be one of the “20” I’m guessing second infection rates are higher than you’re putting here.
" I know someone" and "Im guessing" are not strong enough arguments to win me over to the "immunity wont last long"-camp, sorry. Im in the other camp: " Immunity is still there to this day, so far, from the first cases reported to now atleast (middle of december)". Wich is around 10 months now.
 

Mario_is_BACK!!

ACK! ACK ACK! ACK!!!
Nov 29, 2003
8,363
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Charleston, SC
www.caseandpointsports.com
" I know someone" and "Im guessing" are not strong enough arguments to win me over to the "immunity wont last long"-camp, sorry. Im in the other camp: " Immunity is still there to this day, so far, from the first cases reported to now atleast (middle of december)". Wich is around 10 months now.

I'm sure my friend who tested positive for the second time, and multiple times to make sure it wasn't a fluke, will be comforted that you're blowing off his experience.

Odds are it was a fluke.

Just go on to Google and do a search for how many people have been PROVEN to have gotten it again. And even some of those "reinfections" have questions around them like...Did the people get a false-negative/positive in one of the tests, or did the virus not fully leave the body (despite it looking like it was gone) and just flare up again.

Literally late summer I had a call with a doctor in my practice (a massive one) and he said if I had Covid again the case would be written up in the New England Journal of Medicine.

You're talking over 70 million confirmed cases (and probably tens of millions more unconfirmed) and they *think* maybe like 20 have gotten it again. 20 out of 70,000,000+. Even if 100,000 had gotten it again confirmed that's still only a minuscule 0.0014 reinfection rate.

And even if there are lots of asymptomatic/untested/unhospitalized/unreported 2nd cases...It speaks well to that fact that most of the 2nd cases are not as bad as the first.

Literally no matter how you slice it...The evidence is overwhelming that either there are barely any 2nd cases (so good immunity), and/or those 2nd cases are overwhelmingly not as bad.

So which is it? Only 20 or people get it again and it's just not bad so its not worth knowing? Because my friend that had it twice is was still knocked on his ass the second time, just not as bad in this case means still really bad.
 
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Treb

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May 31, 2011
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Odds are it was a fluke.

Just go on to Google and do a search for how many people have been PROVEN to have gotten it again. And even some of those "reinfections" have questions around them like...Did the people get a false-negative/positive in one of the tests, or did the virus not fully leave the body (despite it looking like it was gone) and just flare up again.

Literally late summer I had a call with a doctor in my practice (a massive one) and he said if I had Covid again the case would be written up in the New England Journal of Medicine.

You're talking over 70 million confirmed cases (and probably tens of millions more unconfirmed) and they *think* maybe like 20 have gotten it again. 20 out of 70,000,000+. Even if 100,000 had gotten it again confirmed that's still only a minuscule 0.0014 reinfection rate.

And even if there are lots of asymptomatic/untested/unhospitalized/unreported 2nd cases...It speaks well to that fact that most of the 2nd cases are not as bad as the first.

Literally no matter how you slice it...The evidence is overwhelming that either there are barely any 2nd cases (so good immunity), and/or those 2nd cases are overwhelmingly not as bad.

I'm sure my friend who tested positive for the second time, and multiple times to make sure it wasn't a fluke, will be comforted that you're blowing off his experience.

So which is it? Only 20 or people get it again and it's just not bad so its not worth knowing? Because my friend that had it twice is was still knocked on his ass the second time, just not as bad in this case means still really bad.

From another thread:
Probably accurate.

There's a lot we don't know yet about reinfections. But we know it's starting to be more common.
The virus is basically 10 months old, and they say that the antibodies last at least 3 to 6 months......

Do you know many people catching the flu twice in a season?
I think I caught the Flu once in the last 10 years.
So you still have to be extremely unlucky to catch it twice in 10 months

We actually have 28 confirmed cases of reinfection proven clinically cause the patient had 2 differents strain of Sars-cov-2, but very few can actually be proven since they don't keep this info on most people and honestly, they don't have the time or the money to investigate at length.

115 cases: State reviewing possible COVID-19 reinfections in Michigan prisoners (freep.com)
150 cases: 150 återinsjuknade utreds – Andreas smittades två gånger - DN.SE
54 (up to 243) cases: Assessment of the risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection in an intense re-exposure setting | medRxiv
285 cases: Predictors of severe symptomatic laboratory-confirmed SARS-COV-2 reinfection | medRxiv
WHO warns Covid reinfections may occur as data suggests antibodies wane (cnbc.com)

But, it's not that surprising either. The vaccine is 95% effective so it still mean it won't work on 1 out of 20 people.
The chances of getting reinfected still remains extremely low for many reasons.

And I don't think we can take that infos and used to predict how long the vaccine will protect us.
I just think we lack infos on this to even talked about it at this point.
 

Snauen

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Dec 27, 2017
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From another thread:
Reasonable post! Yet someone comparing it to the flu there. Dosent the flu virus change/mutate much more generally than a more stable corona-virus? Im no expert, yet that is what I've heard so the chances of beeing "unlucky" should be more slim than whit the flu.
 

Treb

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May 31, 2011
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Reasonable post! Yet someone comparing it to the flu there. Dosent the flu virus change/mutate much more generally than a more stable corona-virus? Im no expert, yet that is what I've heard so the chances of beeing "unlucky" should be more slim than whit the flu.

The flu mutates a lot more and the vaccine-acquired immunity has some question regarding the duration of immunity. Flu changes a lot from season to season.

Sars-Cov-2 doesn't have a rate of mutation as pronounced. However, coronaviruses have been known to induce waning immune response. Current data seems somewhat promising for a longer lasting immunity though.

It's hard to make a statement one way or the other.
 
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blankall

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Herd immunity certainly worked with measles when it was first identified in 9th century (likely pre-dates that) and we got herd immunity to it and everything was hunky dory. We didn't need to develop a vaccine for it, no no. Herd immunity worked.



History of Measles.

And to be clear here:


So yes, everyone was getting infected but that didn't stop it from taking a toll every single year.

Herd immunity is a f***ing fantasy based not in evidence but pseudo-scientific bullshit. The only time herd immunity has been seriously talked about in science is in reference to vaccines. You vaccinate enough people that everyone is protected (like with measles in America until parents stopped vaccinating their kids and now we have the occasional outbreak pop up, yay antivaxxers! From 0 measles deaths a year to a couple here and there every few years).

Measles affects children. Covid largely does not.

It's also funny that you use measles as the example, as measles was where the concept of herd immunity largely arose. And yes, you can get herd immunity from measles, the process to get there is horrifying. Measles is a lot easier to contain. The strategy was always to contain outbreaks or measles instead of allowing it to get to the point of herd immunity.

Herd immunity was recognized as a naturally occurring phenomenon in the 1930s when it was observed that after a significant number of children had become immune to measles, the number of new infections temporarily decreased, including among the unvaccinated.[8] Mass vaccination to induce herd immunity has since become common and proved successful in preventing the spread of many infectious diseases.[9]

Could we please end this "herd immunity" doesn't exist thing. Vaccinations rely on the concept of herd immunity. This Covid vaccine will likely be only 90% effective, but herd immunity will protect the other 10%, assuming everyone gets vaccinated.

Herd immunity in the context of covid, will be reached through a combination of exposure and vaccination. And of course herd immunity exists.

I'm sure my friend who tested positive for the second time, and multiple times to make sure it wasn't a fluke, will be comforted that you're blowing off his experience.



So which is it? Only 20 or people get it again and it's just not bad so its not worth knowing? Because my friend that had it twice is was still knocked on his ass the second time, just not as bad in this case means still really bad.

All viruses have some rate of reinfection. The rate of reinfection for Covid thus far seems to be fairly low. Even if your friend got it twice that doesn't say anything about rates of mutation, long term immunity, etc...it just says your friend got it twice. Until we start seeing rates of reinfection that are much higher than a few anecdotal cases, there's no reason to be alarmed.
 
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Knave

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Measles affects children. Covid largely does not.

It's also funny that you use measles as the example, as measles was where the concept of herd immunity largely arose. And yes, you can get herd immunity from measles, the process to get there is horrifying. Measles is a lot easier to contain. The strategy was always to contain outbreaks or measles instead of allowing it to get to the point of herd immunity.



Could we please end this "herd immunity" doesn't exist thing. Vaccinations rely on the concept of herd immunity. This Covid vaccine will likely be only 90% effective, but herd immunity will protect the other 10%, assuming everyone gets vaccinated.

Herd immunity in the context of covid, will be reached through a combination of exposure and vaccination. And of course herd immunity exists.



All viruses have some rate of reinfection. The rate of reinfection for Covid thus far seems to be fairly low. Even if your friend got it twice that doesn't say anything about rates of mutation, long term immunity, etc...it just says your friend got it twice. Until we start seeing rates of reinfection that are much higher than a few anecdotal cases, there's no reason to be alarmed.

LMAO no. Herd immunity is not everyone gets affected over the centuries. Herd immunity is not the infection slowing down slightly in some years versus others.

Herd immunity is so many people are vaccinated and unable to get infected the virus has nowhere to go. By extension those who can't actually get vaccines or who don't respond to vaccines and build immunity... are also protected.

Cite a single example of any population anywhere achieving actual herd immunity of measles through infection. It's been around for centuries. There must be some place, right?

You state proudly "it affects children". Yeah and COVID-19 can also infect children. It doesn't matter if they get sick or not. What matters is if they can transmit. And they can. That keeps the virus circulating. You get that, right?
 
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blankall

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LMAO no. Herd immunity is not everyone gets affected over the centuries. Herd immunity is not the infection slowing down slightly in some years versus others.

Herd immunity is so many people are vaccinated and unable to get infected the virus has nowhere to go. By extension those who can't actually get vaccines or who don't respond to vaccines and build immunity... are also protected.

Cite a single example of any population anywhere achieving actual herd immunity of measles through infection. It's been around for centuries. There must be some place, right?

Herd immunity is when a single population gets immunity, because they have enough people immune to a virus to stop general spread within the population.

Measles never generally spread through the whole population. It's death rate was extremely high and outbreaks were contained vigorously. It also affected children, unlike Covid. So it would spread through a population and then affect the children in the next generation. There was no lasting herd immunity beyond a few years with that disease, but that was specific to that disease. It doesn't meant that herd immunity doesn't exist.

There are many viruses that have existed through humanity's history, because the population as a whole never gets it: polio, malaria, etc...the viruses do cycle through individual populations, and come back in later genrations.

There are other viruses where herd immunity is established, and then those viruses mutate. For example, the flu and various colds. Covid-19 has far more in common with the flu or colds. In fact, several colds are caused by other closely related coronaviruses and

You have no clue what you're talking about. So keep laughing your ass off, you're the Yin to the anti-vaxxer Yang.

And once again, the concept of herd immunity was discovered in the context of measles, where populations had been exposes, and had degree of immunity afterwards. The pattern of measles was an outbreak within a population followed by a period of immunity.
 

StarDucks

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Herd immunity is when a single population gets immunity, because they have enough people immune to a virus to stop general spread within the population.

Measles never generally spread through the whole population. It's death rate was extremely high and outbreaks were contained vigorously. It also affected children, unlike Covid. So it would spread through a population and then affect the children in the next generation. There was no lasting herd immunity beyond a few years with that disease, but that was specific to that disease. It doesn't meant that herd immunity doesn't exist.

There are many viruses that have existed through humanity's history, because the population as a whole never gets it: polio, malaria, etc...the viruses do cycle through individual populations, and come back in later genrations.

There are other viruses where herd immunity is established, and then those viruses mutate. For example, the flu and various colds. Covid-19 has far more in common with the flu or colds. In fact, several colds are caused by other closely related coronaviruses and

You have no clue what you're talking about. So keep laughing your ass off, you're the Yin to the anti-vaxxer Yang.

And once again, the concept of herd immunity was discovered in the context of measles, where populations had been exposes, and had degree of immunity afterwards. The pattern of measles was an outbreak within a population followed by a period of immunity.

1) measles was infecting 3-5million people a year in the US alone before the vaccine. The death rate was/is less than 1%.(google is a thing)
2) malaria is not a virus(seriously you know google is a thing)
3) we don’t have heard Immunity to the flu, or the common cold. (What point are you even trying to make here?)
4) all viruses mutate, at varying rates.
5) the flu and coronavirus families are completely different. Saying one thing is “ more like the flu and colds” is like saying something is more like birds and squirrels. It doesn’t make sense
 
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blankall

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1) measles was infecting 3-5million people a year before the vaccine. The death rate was/is less than 1%.
2) malaria is not a virus
3) we don’t have heard Immunity to the flu, or the common cold.
4) all viruses mutate, at varying rates.
That malaria was a slip. It was supposed to say measles.

Yes we do get herd immunity to various strains of the flu and cold. They just mutate injury new strains. The flu is a new strain every season.

I agree with on the measles thing. Not that many people became infected. Hence why we never achieved herd immunity. Even then like I said, it strongly affects children So new generations are not immune. Measles death rate is only due to modern medicine. The death rate is far higher in developing countries.

All viruses mutate. Many at not enough of a rate for us to avoid herd immunity.
 
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StarDucks

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Sep 14, 2020
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That malaria was a slip. It was supposed to say measles.

Yes we do get herd immunity to various strains of the flu and cold. They just mutate injury new strains. The flu is a new strain every season.

I agree with on the measles thing. Not that many people became infected. Hence why we never achieved herd immunity. Even then like I said, it strongly affects children So new generations are not immune. Measles death rate is only due to modern medicine. The death rate is far higher in developing countries.

All viruses mutate. Many at not enough of a rate for us to avoid herd immunity.

heard immunity has never been achieved for a major viral infection in the greater population without a vaccine. Saying we get heard immunity to “strains” of a closely related family of viruses is useless.
 

blankall

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heard immunity has never been achieved for a major viral infection in the greater population without a vaccine. Saying we get heard immunity to “strains” of a closely related family of viruses is useless.
Herd immunity occurs ever year with strains of the cold. Some mutate into new strains but not all of them.

Many populations have gotten herd immunity to many viruses, but herd immunity only lasts one generation. Immunity is not passed through generations.
 

StarDucks

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Sep 14, 2020
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Herd immunity occurs ever year with strains of the cold. Some mutate into new strains but not all of them.

Many populations have gotten herd immunity to many viruses, but herd immunity only lasts one generation. Immunity is not passed through generations.

Again, saying we got heard immunity to a strain of anything is useless. People don’t care if they don’t catch a particular strain of a deadly virus. They care if they contract the disease.
 

blankall

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Again, saying we got heard immunity to a strain of anything is useless. People don’t care if they don’t catch a particular strain of a deadly virus. They care if they contract the disease.
How is that useless? You typically only get the flu once a year. Presumably covid mutates less then the flu and it doesn't affect children, for the most part.

Hopefully covid does not mutate enough to become a yearly threat and we do maintain herd immunity after the vaccine is administered widely.
 

StarDucks

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Sep 14, 2020
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How is that useless? You typically only get the flu once a year. Presumably covid mutates less then the flu and it doesn't affect children, for the most part.

Hopefully covid does not mutate enough to become a yearly threat and we do maintain herd immunity after the vaccine is administered widely.

Vaccines are created with efficacy in mind. Meaning they specifically target non volatile parts of a virus. The idea is to try and guarantee that the same markers that the original vaccine was developed around are still viable when a mutation happens. That’s harder to predict with viruses that mutate more often. This is why Pfitzer is only “ pretty sure” the vaccine will work on this new strain of coronavirus.

the human immune system does not work that way.

so, unless your proposed plan here is to repeat “2020” every time the coronavirus mutates, it’s useless to say naturally acquired heard immunity to any particular strain of a virus that causes the same disease is somehow a useful feat.
 

blankall

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Jul 4, 2007
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Vaccines are created with efficacy in mind. Meaning they specifically target non volatile parts of a virus. The idea is to try and guarantee that the same markers that the original vaccine was developed around are still viable when a mutation happens. That’s harder to predict with viruses that mutate more often. This is why Pfitzer is only “ pretty sure” the vaccine will work on this new strain of coronavirus.

the human immune system does not work that way.

so, unless your proposed plan here is to repeat “2020” every time the coronavirus mutates, it’s useless to say naturally acquired heard immunity to any particular strain of a virus that causes the same disease is somehow a useful feat.
That's not true. Firstly we have no idea where the mutations would be. Secondly vaccines are very poor at providing long term immunity, especially when there's mutations, as they produce a limited immune response. Hence why we can't create a long term vaccine for hiv, the cold, or the flu.

For the record I'm not arguing for naturally acquired herd immunity. I'm just stating it's possible.
 

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