COVID-19: The final countdown

Discussion in 'Pittsburgh Penguins' started by ColePens, Dec 12, 2020.

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  1. Jacob as seen on TV

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    Nate Silver hasn’t gotten anything right since like 2008 though.
     
  2. metalan2 Registered User

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  3. DocEmrickSkitters Registered User

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  4. EightyOne My posts are jokes. And hockey is just a game.

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    Even if you think there will be a majority of 'herd immunity' by April...it isnt April yet, so, no it is not insane that fan attendance is still being limited.
     
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  5. ColePens RIP parabola & Fugu

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    It's beating a drum of agree to disagree, but I am often blown away by how many people will say "Science, science, science" and then when science is shown, I can tell who really wants to follow science and who just wants to force a narrative. It's so blatantly obvious that it is sad. It's sad because there could be a lot of healthy discussion out there for the betterment of the good.

    For example.. I'll throw out why do we even need herd immunity to open up? If the science fully supports under 70 with no pre-existing condition has a very very very very very low fatality rate, then let people make their choice once our vulnerable are vaccinated. Let's focus mainly on getting our vulnerable vaccinated and please dear lord stop giving young healthy people the vaccine first. Herd immunity isn't needed but will be a likely causation of what an open country will be. And I fully believe we COULD have that by April, but then you have states like PA who f*** up around every corner.

    And I'll throw schools out there as "holy shit.. open the f***ing schools" :laugh: because my goodness they don't need to be closed.
     
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  6. DocEmrickSkitters Registered User

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    Ultimately we're in the end-game of C19 with like 35-40% having been infected naturally, 10% vaccinated, more widespread vaccination in the springtime at the likes of CVS, Walmart, Walgreens etc. and warmer weather allowing people to congregate outside again. Yeah reinfections will happen but not as often and not nearly as severely.

    Deaths will continue to plummet and at some point overall excess mortality will drop to 0 or below even though C19 will still be a cause of death.

    There will be upcoming fights about whether vaccine proof is required by law or something at a businesses discretion, whether employers can force employees to come back into the office at threat of firing, the loosening of mask mandates, and of course the schools (mostly due to the political leanings of the teachers unions and college professors). I guess too about whether PPG Paints will be full or half-full if the Pens make the playoffs. All of that pales in comparison to whether you're a bad person for wanting to see your family/friends in person. Normality will be here and faster than you think.
     
  7. ColePens RIP parabola & Fugu

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    I like the bolded, my friend. As for everything else - I'm willing to wait and see, digest the info, and then come up with an opinion. If businesses want to make it mandatory - i respect their freedom to do that. I'm willing to cross those bridges when we get there.
     
  8. DocEmrickSkitters Registered User

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    The pandemic ends when we say it does, person-by-person. For most people it will be the moment that needle goes in their arm (or a 2nd time). The numbers of cases and especially deaths will be microscopic or at least microscopic compared to 3000/day.

    Excess mortality will be nil, an unfortunate offsetting effect of the tragic "pull-forward" of deaths we had in 2020. Track it here; though you have to go 8-10 weeks back to get full baked numbers.
    Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

    At some point people will bring their masks into places but others won't be wearing them and they'll stop caring. That may take a bit longer but I don't think it's that far off either. After all we had the "Roaring 20s" without exactly eradicating the Spanish Flu which killed many more people than C19. People should always wear masks when they're sick and maybe on airplanes and such.

    Maybe it's the weather turning but I'm a big time optimist about where this is going soon.
     
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  9. Jaded-Fan Registered User

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    The one flaw with your argument, at least now, is that you could get the virus and give it to a vulnerable person close to you. As we vaccinate the most vulnerable your argument becomes a bit easier to defend.
     
  10. Jaded-Fan Registered User

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  11. bambamcam4ever 107 and counting

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    Remember some of those are 2nd doses though, I think we're at 13 or 14% of people with at least one dose.
     
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  12. bambamcam4ever 107 and counting

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    The WSJ is certainly a legitimate publication. The Daily Wire is not.
     
  13. Jaded-Fan Registered User

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    If so then Europe and Canada are only at a pathetic 2.5 percent.

    Also, even if so one dose gives 92 percent immunity. Only 2 to 3 percent less than two shots.
     
  14. ColePens RIP parabola & Fugu

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    As of right this minute, I'm still 1000% on board with you. I'm speaking about when our vulnerable all get the 2nd shot. And i'm talking for most states 1 A/B. Once that part is done, that should be it, really. That doesn't mean we can't take whatever responsibility we feel is necessary. It just means it's time to go back to normal and educate ourselves on the risk but also be able to make that final decision.

    Then I would say it falls on the individual to make the best decision for themselves, as opposed to right now nobody has any call in anything.
     
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  15. Jaded-Fan Registered User

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    Israel has vaccinated north of 80 percent of its population. Their "Green Pass" is a pretty good window into the not so distant future as more get vaccinated.

     
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  16. Fordy Registered User

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    you won't catch me carrying my goddamn papers around to go out in public
     
  17. Jaded-Fan Registered User

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    Even if it means that you won't get access to places that you want to go?

    As an aside, we should all be forever grateful to those who developed the MRNA vaccines. Multiple virus variations keep developing. And traditional vaccines like AstraZeneca are not proof against them all. The South Africa varient as an example. But the MRNA versions that only use the protein that attaches to cells work against them all.
     
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  18. Fordy Registered User

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    i already do. try to keep me out, lol
     
  19. Jacob as seen on TV

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    They specifically mentioned *private* places: gyms, hotels and theaters.
     
  20. Jaded-Fan Registered User

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    Although I would imagine that it would extend to public, or quasi- public places as well. Airports, sporting events, etc. And for purely public places like the courts, etc. they very likely would be more restrictive with those not vaccinated. Separated in waiting areas with enforced heightened safety measures.

    I also will predict that once most who are willing to get the vaccine have done so the pressure will be enormous on those who are holding out. The story will be that all of you vaccinated people could return to normal, no masks, no distancing, it would be pre-pandamic already. Just like in some countries like Israel where everyone is being vaccineate. Except for your dweeb neighbor who still refuses to vaccinate. So another year of your glasses fogging up with a mask and limitations on numbers in sporting events, etc. because some refuse to play along.
     
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2021 at 2:17 PM
  21. Jaded-Fan Registered User

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    And from the country who has vaccinated north of 80% of the over 9 million people who live there:



     
  22. The Old Master Registered User

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    well then, how do you think i'm going to be able to steal them?
     
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  23. ColePens RIP parabola & Fugu

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    :laugh:
     
  24. 2wayPlay Registered User

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    I respect the posts you make Jaded and think you are a fairly intelligent individual however.........

    Stop the Vax shaming man. Not everyone who is young and healthy will want to inject something relatively unknown into their body. At the end of the day it should be a choice for individuals to make. Some point down the road when more scientific data is out then maybe it should be a more mandated Vax. If you want it so bad go get it and good for you! My parents both got it because they are upper 60s and wanted it. Just sick of the belittling mindset on here.
     
  25. Jaded-Fan Registered User

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    It was more a prediction of a general for want of a better word peer pressure when the only thing delaying a return to normalcy and no masks and so forth is some refusing to vaccinate.

    Like any prediction it could be wrong. And even if true it would not neccisarily impact anyone's decision. Time will tell.
     
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