OT: Covid-19 (Part 43) Let 'em in

[Adam Michaels]

 

[OnTheRun]

As usual Australia don't f*** around. 35 cases over a 3 days period in a city of 5 million? Lockdown.

 

[Adam Michaels]

As usual Austria don't f*** around. 35 cases over a 3 days period in a city of 5 million? Lockdown.

You mean Australia.

 

[OnTheRun]

You mean Australia.

I do indeed. Fixed it.

 

[Adam Michaels]

So for people who had the AZ vaccine for their first dose, need to make sure that at least 8 weeks pass before their second dose.

 

[ClasslessGuy]

So for people who had the AZ vaccine for their first dose, need to make sure that at least 8 weeks pass before their second dose.

Without any additional information, this will spark more discussion around this vaccine (not that I agree)

 

[OnTheRun]

Un cas de COVID-19 sur deux passe sous le radar au Québec

Serology study estimate the number of infection up to March 2021 in Quebec at 600k (287k officially reported) so we missed roughly half. Which isn't too bad compared to the CDC estimate of catching only one in four cases during the peak of the pandemic in the US.

 

[OnTheRun]

So for people who had the AZ vaccine for their first dose, need to make sure that at least 8 weeks pass before their second dose.

Without any additional information, this will spark more discussion around this vaccine (not that I agree)

"Par ailleurs, à la suite d’un nouvel avis du Centre sur l’immunisation du Québec (CIQ), Québec réduit de 16 à 8 semaines l'intervalle recommandé pour recevoir la deuxième dose du vaccin d'AstraZeneca.

Ainsi, les personnes de 45 ans et plus qui ont reçu une première dose de vaccin AstraZeneca avant le 3 avril pourront recevoir leur deuxième dose dans les cliniques sans rendez-vous à compter du 29 mai.

De surcroît, le ministère de la Santé recommande aux gens qui ont reçu une première dose d’AstraZeneca d’opter pour le même vaccin pour la seconde dose.
[...]
Les personnes qui préféreraient recevoir une dose de vaccin ARNm (Pfizer ou Moderna) comme deuxième dose plutôt qu’une d’AstraZeneca pourront le faire. Elles ne pourront toutefois pas devancer la date de leur deuxième rendez-vous. "

Québec promet un calendrier des deuxièmes doses pour la semaine prochaine | Coronavirus

 

[lo striver]

last day of the curfew (for now). can we start outdoor party at midnight?

 

[River Meadow]

I want to move to Australia.

I would feel so safe.

 

[OnTheRun]

I want to move to Australia.

I would feel so safe.

 

[MasterD]

Its insane that we had a curfew for 5 months. Feels surreal and it's actually coming to an end.

Now if unvaccinated peeps can take some appointments. Nothing would suck more then quebec delaying reopening because we don't hit the 75% 1 dose in 3 weeks. We better not get stuck at 65-70%...

75% is a totally subjective number that they got our of their ***. We don't know where the actual treshold is, could be 60%, less, more... If they delay reopening stuff because of this while the numbers are trending down, it's just a power trip.

 

[SOLR]

75% is a totally subjective number that they got our of their ***. We don't know where the actual treshold is, could be 60%, less, more... If they delay reopening stuff because of this while the numbers are trending down, it's just a power trip.

Not really. They continuously study what vaccination rates to go after what R-naught, and they've been doing it for a long time.

 

[MasterD]

Not really. They continuously study what vaccination rates to go after what R-naught, and they've been doing it for a long time.

Can't know what % of the population is required to reach mass immunity if we don't know how many people had asymptomatic infections. They can guesstimate, but they don't know. If more people are immune to covid after infection (symptomatic or not), we need less vaccinated people to reach mass immunity.

 

[knuck]

As usual Australia don't f*** around. 35 cases over a 3 days period in a city of 5 million? Lockdown.

sure but they're also late as hell when it comes to vaccination

COVID-19 Data Explorer

 

[SOLR]

Can't know what % of the population is required to reach mass immunity if we don't know how many people had asymptomatic infections. They can guesstimate, but they don't know. If more people are immune to covid after infection (symptomatic or not), we need less vaccinated people to reach mass immunity.

They have a clear range for this R-naught, it's quite a bit more than a guesstimate. Most don't understand this but, a range with a 5-7% margin of error is quite a precise number in the real world. I manage such challenges often, and such range is more than enough to make a good call.

 

[SOLR]

sure but they're also late as hell when it comes to vaccination

COVID-19 Data Explorer

Very poor vaccination plan. They might be stuck in the pandemic for another 6-9 months.

 

[OnTheRun]

sure but they're also late as hell when it comes to vaccination

COVID-19 Data Explorer

Yeah well, their main vaccine is AZ so they get the two main problem that come with it: shaky supply chain and people hesitancy.

 

[MasterD]

They have a clear range for this R-naught, it's quite a bit more than a guesstimate. Most don't understand this but, a range with a 5-7% margin of error is quite a precise number in the real world. I manage such challenges often, and such range is more than enough to make a good call.

I didn't say they're making a horrible call, I'm saying that 75% is a ballpark number, that perhaps 73 or 71% would do just fine, it's all about realizing there's a confidence interval. With the numbers of vaccinated+appointments we have right now, delaying opening up for a few % points wouldn't make sense.

 

[SOLR]

I didn't say they're making a horrible call, I'm saying that 75% is a ballpark number, that perhaps 73 or 71% would do just fine, it's all about realizing there's a confidence interval. With the numbers of vaccinated+appointments we have right now, delaying opening up for a few % points wouldn't make sense.

It's not about a few points, keep in mind that it takes 3 weeks for these vaccines to work well. We are at 55% but 3 weeks ago we were under 40% (not sure about Quebec numbers, going by Ontario's). It's the last time we have to be patient for a long while if they manage this well.

 

[MasterD]

It's not about a few points, keep in mind that it takes 3 weeks for these vaccines to work well. We are at 55% but 3 weeks ago we were under 40% (not sure about Quebec numbers, going by Ontario's). It's the last time we have to be patient for a long while if they manage this well.

Yup, we're already at 55% 1st dose received, 65% including people with appointments taken. We'll get to 70% in no time. No reason to delay opening up.

That's not mentioning people protected by having had the infection and snowbirds vaxxed in the USA.

 

[OnTheRun]

Yup, we're already at 55% 1st dose received, 65% including people with appointments taken. We'll get to 70% in no time. No reason to delay opening up.

That's not mentioning people protected by having had the infection and snowbirds vaxxed in the USA.

The re-opening is not directly based on the number of people vaccinated. It's the weekly average of cases per 100k that determine a region color code. The dates given earlier are estimates based on both current cases trend and people getting vaxxed.

 

[danyhabsfan]

Updated stats

looking good. We'll get 80%+.

 

[GoodKiwi]

So is curfew lifted right now?

 

[Holystik]

Sorry a bit random, but got a promotion yesterday for CIUSSS project pilot leader for the vaccination's organization in Quebec/Portneuf/Charlevoix. I am so happy! Had to reinvent myself after being laidoff at Air Canada(20 years seniority). Will be making sure that all the ministerial directives and staff get the best of coaching for the pandemic!

Lets keep going forward!

Anyone with a vaccination question can PM me. Health to all of you!