OT: COVID-19 Megathread III (Please limit all COVID discussion to this thread)

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PredsV82

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For historical accuracy, smallpox did completely disappear due to the effectiveness of the vaccine. The only remaining smallpox virus is in a couple of labs. Measles was eradicated from the US until the anti vax idiots allowed it to regain a foothold.

COVID isnt likely to completely disappear because the immunity from both exposure and vaccines appears to be short lived. That said, if there is an effective vaccine and everybody takes it, COVID should effectively disappear to the point that special restrictions wont be necessary.
 

czechczech

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I've not read the Danish study, only news reports. Still, some questions:
  • Did the masked group only hang out with other masked people? What was the mask compliance for the general population? Seems important since the mask protects those around you first and yourself second. And high level of compliance(including mask mandates) is what helps to drive infectins down.
  • What time of year? Were people mostly indoors or outdoors?
  • Infection rate at time of study ?
  • Transmission rate at time of study?
  • Study assumptions?
Not sure I would draw any conclusions from this. Wear a mask! Please!
 

Armourboy

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This was not a study about transmission. And it did not just come out. It was run in April, and it was about the protective ability of masks. There were no controls, and test subjects admitted to varying levels of adherence to the protocol. 42 of 2,393 people in the masked group got Covid, and 53 of 2,470 in the no-mask group got Covid. (There weren't 6000 subjects either). But either way there is no statistical difference in these populations, and even the authors admitted that due to the lack of controls it really says nothing about the efficacity of masks as protections against acquiring Covid.

There HAVE been studys of masks in terms of fiber density and composition and all that vs. the virus size and binding affinity and you can look those up. They are scientific and controlled.

But what you misstated, and what is really important, again, about mask use IS the transmission. Or how a mask may affect the so-called R0 number. And that's a number that you won't be able to look up easily either, because it varies so much with environment. But the real thing you want to do, as a responsible member of society, is make your own contribution to keeping your personal Ro as low as possible. That encompasses several factors, but two easy ones are your social interactions and your ability to emit the virus if you get infected. If you interact with less people (i.e. shutdowns, social distancing), you won't be able to spread it as easily once you get the virus. If you wear a mask, you won't be able to spread it as easily once you get the virus. Those are the two biggies. And nobody says either of them are 100% effective either. (Well, I guess TOTAL true quarantine would be, but that's hard to do since most people get the virus before they even know they have it and so many people get asymptomatic or extremely mild symptoms, so it's not possible to truly quarantine everybody effectively in time).

Virus transmission is exponential. Just as an illustrative example, say your R0 is 3.0 (you can find a SLEW of different studies for Covid from basically 1 to 6, but those all essentially come down to environment). We won't ever have a real single number on it that applies equally to everybody everywhere at all times. But say it's 3.0. In that case, within 3 incubation cycles, a person infected with Covid would normally spread the virus to 40 people.

microbe-2.svg


Now suppose instead the infected person wears a mask whenever out and about, and that is NOT perfect, but suppose it reduces the R0 from 3 to 2 in your environment, thanks to the mask blocking some of your virus output. You think, wow, that's not super effective since you still infect 2 other people instead of 3. That's hardly effective at all! And yet, over 3 incubation cycles of a mask-wearing population, only 15 people in total get infected.

microbe-1.svg


People need to stop thinking in absolutes, and just get on with doing your part. Yes, nothing is perfect. But these things add up quickly. Again, I'm not saying these are the exact numbers, they are just illustrative examples. You can Google 20 different results. And what your media is going to do is cherry pick the result that gives you the answer you are already looking for. So yes, you WILL find an article that says Ro is not affected by masks. Bogus. And you WILL find an article that says Ro is 1 and one that says it is 5.7 and again, they have limitations. But the underlying principle is what matters. A mask WILL have an effect. It is not perfect, nor is it well quantified yet. But do you want to have a positive effect at limiting the spread of the virus, at whatever level, or don't you?
This study was released yesterday and there was 6024 test subjects involved. I've only seen the news article on it from Reuters, so I don't know the exact details other than what they provided, which wasn't much tbh. The test apparently ran from April to May though.

Frankly from the article I'm not even sure why they bothered with it because basically the scientists involved more or less talked out of both sides of their mouths. In one hand they put their findings out and then in the other they basically said to disregard for the most part. Kind of makes you scratch your head as to why they bothered releasing it in the first place.

I wear a mask so it's no sweat off my back, I'm basically just asking questions, like are masks that effective because it is a smaller micron than what most of the masks are effective at stopping. Yeah wearing a mask is fine and dandy, but if it's in aerosol form and just being blown through the mask then its just a false sense of security.

I also think they need to do a better job of notifying the public about what is and isn't effective, because I'm betting at least half of the masks I see would do good to stop a spit ball let alone you containing a virus to yourself.
 
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Porter Stoutheart

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This study was released yesterday and there was 6024 test subjects involved. I've only seen the news article on it from Reuters, so I don't know the exact details other than what they provided, which wasn't much tbh. The test apparently ran from April to May though.

Frankly from the article I'm not even sure why they bothered with it because basically the scientists involved more or less talked out of both sides of their mouths. In one hand they put their findings out and then in the other they basically said to disregard for the most part. Kind of makes you scratch your head as to why they bothered releasing it in the first place.

I wear a mask so it's no sweat off my back, I'm basically just asking questions, like are masks that effective because it is a smaller micron than what most of the masks are effective at stopping. Yeah wearing a mask is fine and dandy, but if it's in aerosol form and just being blown through the mask then its just a false sense of security.

I also think they need to do a better job of notifying the public about what is and isn't effective, because I'm betting at least half of the masks I see would do good to stop a spit ball let alone you containing a virus to yourself.
I don't think there's anything wrong with doing the study. On the number discrepancy, while they started with the 6024, only 4862 completed the study and hence were included in the final reported percentages. It seems to me that the authors had a realistic grasp of the limitations of their study. And caveated the findings correspondingly. That's not "talking out of both sides of their mouths"... that's just recognizing and acknowledging the limitations. That's how a fair bit of science gets done. You run a study or experiment. You find a result. You note what you did right and wrong, and you or other people can then come along and build on that with refinements to the study or experiment, to try to find a better and more meaningful result. It doesn't mean the initial study was "bad", or even "wrong", per se. And it doesn't mean you shouldn't release it. You release it, put in all necessary caveats, report your conclusions, and then the community can build on it.

And so it's a good study. The problem comes in when somebody wants to politicize it or cherry pick parts of it to fit their own agenda, without paying attention to the actual finer details. And that's where some of this reporting gets broken. It's not a problem with the study itself. It's with the misinterpretation of the study.

And it's entirely possible that a better controlled version of the same study would come to a similar less-caveated conclusion: that masks have a negligible effect on protecting you from catching the virus. And people ARE running studies of all these things and in both directions. But it doesn't move at the speed that is necessarily going to help us immediately on the ground. Like this study done in April, comes out in November. The next refinements, come out... when? And that sort of effect is something else that people aren't grasping well enough. Science takes time.

If you need an answer immediately, however, (and we did) what should you do? Nothing? Just wait a year or two for the properly controlled definitive final-word study to come out? Or take some best-guess preventative action that you easily can take in the meantime? It seems unlikely that masks will prove to actually have a negative effect on virus transmission, anyway. Maybe once the final perfect study is done, it will show they had zero effect? What have you really lost if that turns out to be the case yet you spent a year wearing a mask? Worst case is you tried your best with what you had available to react quickly with. But at least you tried.

And then that leads to the other thing that people aren't grasping well enough. Masks, whether they ultimately prove to work or don't, aren't the only thing people should be doing. If they give you a false sense of security, then... well, you aren't understanding the situation, and you shouldn't have that false sense of security. You should also be doing all the other things that are being constantly recommended too. Hand-washing. Avoiding gatherings and social interactions. People are too lax on all of that. Although I tend to see it more as a complete package... the people who are lax tend to be lax on all of it, including masks. But I'm sure there are all different kinds of lax around in all proportions, depending on the individual.
 

triggrman

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I'm sorry I still have a tough time with the numbers. How can 2 counties on opposite ends of the state report their largest spike ever on the same day? In fact, 80% of all the counties reported it on the exact same day.. How do you go from 6% positive rates to 12% in 20 days in every single county?

That's just tough to believe.

I do know hospitals are reporting more cases, I do know that more people are dying, I do know COVID is real. I just have a tough time with all the numbers.
 

Predsanddead24

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Here's a link to the mask study if you want to read it:

ACP Journals

I believe it is open access but I'm on my university network so I could be mistaken.

Mask usage in the general population during the study was estimated to be <5%. This study basically tested whether or not mask usage protects the wearer and it suggests it does not. However, there have been other studies that suggest there may be a benefit to the wearer so the science is mixed. It does not provide any insight into whether universal masking prevents the spread at the population level, however several other studies do suggest it does.

Here is a better cited and written response to the Danish mask study as well pointing out what it does and doesn't tell us and flaws in their study.

ACP Journals
 
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PredsV82

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I'm sorry I still have a tough time with the numbers. How can 2 counties on opposite ends of the state report their largest spike ever on the same day? In fact, 80% of all the counties reported it on the exact same day.. How do you go from 6% positive rates to 12% in 20 days in every single county?

That's just tough to believe.

I do know hospitals are reporting more cases, I do know that more people are dying, I do know COVID is real. I just have a tough time with all the numbers.

My counties numbers that our local health department releases have always varied from what the state releases. Some of this is due to when a case is counted(Midnight vs 5pm). Dont get too caught up in parsing the exact numbers, just look at the curve for trends.
 
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predfan24

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I'm sorry I still have a tough time with the numbers. How can 2 counties on opposite ends of the state report their largest spike ever on the same day? In fact, 80% of all the counties reported it on the exact same day.. How do you go from 6% positive rates to 12% in 20 days in every single county?

That's just tough to believe.

I do know hospitals are reporting more cases, I do know that more people are dying, I do know COVID is real. I just have a tough time with all the numbers.

You'd have to be more specific about which counties, but almost the entirety of the U.S., TN included, is in exponential growth.

https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/daily-cases-and-currently-hospitalized

The 7 day average of cases has more than doubled in TN since a month ago. Hospitalizations have more than doubled than Oct. 1.

U.S. graph: https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-positive

The curve going straight up is bad news. For example, on Sept 30 the 7-day average for cases in the U.S. was 42,514. Nov. 18 the 7 day average was 157,222. Almost quadrupled in a month and a half.

Exponential growth can be thought of in the RO, or reproductive rate of COVID. For example, and I'm just using this as an example not what the actual RO is, if the RO was 2 then every person who was infected on average would infect 2 more people. This can quickly spiral out of control. 1 infected 2, 2 infects 4, 4 to 16, 16 to 32, 32 to 64, and so on and so on. That's why cases can increase so dramatically over a short period of time.

I realized I suck at math and put 4 to 16 but you get the point lol.
 
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Bringer of Jollity

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You'd have to be more specific about which counties, but almost the entirety of the U.S., TN included, is in exponential growth.

https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/daily-cases-and-currently-hospitalized

The 7 day average of cases has more than doubled in TN since a month ago. Hospitalizations have more than doubled than Oct. 1.

U.S. graph: https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-positive

The curve going straight up is bad news. For example, on Sept 30 the 7-day average for cases in the U.S. was 42,514. Nov. 18 the 7 day average was 157,222. Almost quadrupled in a month and a half.

Exponential growth can be thought of in the RO, or reproductive rate of COVID. For example, and I'm just using this as an example not what the actual RO is, if the RO was 2 then every person who was infected on average would infect 2 more people. This can quickly spiral out of control. 1 infected 2, 2 infects 4, 4 to 16, 16 to 32, 32 to 64, and so on and so on. That's why cases can increase so dramatically over a short period of time.
We may only be seeing some of the Halloween-final election rallies-voting-mass celebration/demonstration numbers coming to fruition as well. Add the impending Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year spikes on top of that? We're screwed.
 

triggrman

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You'd have to be more specific about which counties, but almost the entirety of the U.S., TN included, is in exponential growth.

https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/daily-cases-and-currently-hospitalized

The 7 day average of cases has more than doubled in TN since a month ago. Hospitalizations have more than doubled than Oct. 1.

U.S. graph: https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-positive

The curve going straight up is bad news. For example, on Sept 30 the 7-day average for cases in the U.S. was 42,514. Nov. 18 the 7 day average was 157,222. Almost quadrupled in a month and a half.

Exponential growth can be thought of in the RO, or reproductive rate of COVID. For example, and I'm just using this as an example not what the actual RO is, if the RO was 2 then every person who was infected on average would infect 2 more people. This can quickly spiral out of control. 1 infected 2, 2 infects 4, 4 to 16, 16 to 32, 32 to 64, and so on and so on. That's why cases can increase so dramatically over a short period of time.
You'd have to be more specific about which counties, but almost the entirety of the U.S., TN included, is in exponential growth.

https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/daily-cases-and-currently-hospitalized

The 7 day average of cases has more than doubled in TN since a month ago. Hospitalizations have more than doubled than Oct. 1.

U.S. graph: https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-positive

The curve going straight up is bad news. For example, on Sept 30 the 7-day average for cases in the U.S. was 42,514. Nov. 18 the 7 day average was 157,222. Almost quadrupled in a month and a half.

Exponential growth can be thought of in the RO, or reproductive rate of COVID. For example, and I'm just using this as an example not what the actual RO is, if the RO was 2 then every person who was infected on average would infect 2 more people. This can quickly spiral out of control. 1 infected 2, 2 infects 4, 4 to 16, 16 to 32, 32 to 64, and so on and so on. That's why cases can increase so dramatically over a short period of time.
Pick 2 counties, you’ll see the same thing. The spikes are generally on the same days. That just seems unlikely to me.

Novel Coronavirus
 

predfan24

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We may only be seeing some of the Halloween-final election rallies-voting-mass celebration/demonstration numbers coming to fruition as well. Add the impending Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year spikes on top of that? We're screwed.

We are entirely screwed. I know some people cringe when they hear the “lockdown”, and that word has no real definition, but it seems inevitable serious restrictions will have to be put back in place temporarily. If not, hospitals could be overrun and don’t forget that affects a lot more than just COVID patients. That affects any non-COVID emergency. There are reports that doctors and nurses are getting burnt out and quitting. This is serious.
 

Bringer of Jollity

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We are entirely screwed. I know some people cringe when they hear the “lockdown”, and that word has no real definition, but it seems inevitable serious restrictions will have to be put back in place temporarily. If not, hospitals could be overrun and don’t forget that affects a lot more than just COVID patients. That affects any non-COVID emergency. There are reports that doctors and nurses are getting burnt out and quitting. This is serious.
I don't think it matters at this point. They can put any restrictions in place they want, too many people are still going to ignore them and continue to gather. And it's uphill sledding at this point to convince people they need to put the needs of everyone above themselves, too many people already feel like they've sacrificed far too much. I guess it shouldn't be all that surprising, but it somehow does feel a shock to still be in this state 8 months after it started (I figured I'd have to be back at work no later than last mid-April, now it's looking like next July, maybe).
 
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Armourboy

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I don't think it matters at this point. They can put any restrictions in place they want, too many people are still going to ignore them and continue to gather. And it's uphill sledding at this point to convince people they need to put the needs of everyone above themselves, too many people already feel like they've sacrificed far too much. I guess it shouldn't be all that surprising, but it somehow does feel a shock to still be in this state 8 months after it started (I figured I'd have to be back at work no later than last mid-April, now it's looking like next July, maybe).
The problem with a lockdown is it is only a temporary solution, and not a good one at that. Europe has shown us that the minute you end it that it will come roaring back.

I think things will moderate through the holidays. People are starting to take notice that it is getting bad again, so I think while people will still gather it will mainly be with close family. A good chunk of Holiday shopping has already shifted to online over the years and that will spike even harder this season.

Halloween is more a holiday that puts you around lots of different people. Elections put you around a lot of different people. Christmas and Thanksgiving I think will be much more small group oriented. The company Christmas parties will be cut out and other things like that.

The thing is by now we should have a pretty good indication of where the spread is happening the most. While shutting those places down isn't good economically it makes a heck of a lot more sense than shutting down every business. And then you can pin point where the financial support needs to be targeted to rather than this stupid idea of throwing money at everyone ( my company for instance got money while pulling record profits).

I said it the first go around that their time with a lockdown was limited. This is the US and most people aren't used to having their lives affected day in and day out by government. They will push back with both fingers flying. The whole country was basically built on that attitude.
 

PredsV82

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Kentucky is locking down again, and I think people are really scared because the numbers are accelerating so rapidly. I dont think there will be as much pushback as you think. With news that the vaccine is coming by new years I'm thinking people will just hunker down through the holidays and only start to push back if there is no light at the end of the tunnel by january
 

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In my family we curtailed TG to pretty much immediate family based celebrations. This was my year--we usually rotate hosting around the family members and I am always "election year" since it started with me in 1988. It's my favorite holiday--no gifts required, just celebrate family and food, two things dear to my heart. So I'm in mourning a bit, but this is the best way. Christmas has already been planned out--also separate. We're having a Zoom meeting. I do think I'll celebrate the new year a little more robustly than normal. I may be dancing in the street (properly distanced/masked, of course). Let's hope 2021 doesn't try to outdo 2020 in the horrible factor.
 

triggrman

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Outside of my kid going to school, and my daughter being broke (wait, that's still the case) not much will change if we lock back down from my house. If they do lock down though, my daughter would likely lose her job and her condo unless I bail her out again.
 

Armourboy

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Outside of my kid going to school, and my daughter being broke (wait, that's still the case) not much will change if we lock back down from my house. If they do lock down though, my daughter would likely lose her job and her condo unless I bail her out again.
Same for me. Nothing for me changed during any of this other than I had to work a bit more and I could only get carry out.

My family across the board is fairly insulated from a lockdown. I print labels in Franklin, we got busier. My brother is an officer in Nashville and my parents are retired.

Getting to the in laws in Ohio will be a bit tougher as we need to cross from Franklin,Ky all the way up to Ashland, KY. Gas wise we can make it without stopping and they won't close the rest areas or truck stops because truck drivers need somewhere to stop.
 

lstcyr

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Yeah, it sounds like it’s going to be endemic, but if the vaccines really are 90-95% effective and they provide coverage for a considerable length of time COVID could become a rare afterthought provided enough people get reliably and consistently vaccinated.
Are you thinking that we will need to be vaccinated every year like for the flu?
 

Armourboy

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Are you thinking that we will need to be vaccinated every year like for the flu?
That would be my guess. From a spread stand point this thing acts more like flu than say something like small pox. I listened to a podcast from a Yale doctor and he basically said they have no clue just how long a vaccine would work in our system, but he was leaning towards the yearly dose thing.
 

triggrman

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Same for me. Nothing for me changed during any of this other than I had to work a bit more and I could only get carry out.

My family across the board is fairly insulated from a lockdown. I print labels in Franklin, we got busier. My brother is an officer in Nashville and my parents are retired.

Getting to the in laws in Ohio will be a bit tougher as we need to cross from Franklin,Ky all the way up to Ashland, KY. Gas wise we can make it without stopping and they won't close the rest areas or truck stops because truck drivers need somewhere to stop.
I was more referring to my work still hasn’t returned
 

Armourboy

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I was more referring to my work still hasn’t returned
Ah ours never left and actually got crazy for a while with everyone buying everything. Its one reason I took several thousand less than I could have made working at some other places. People are always going to eat and they are always going to drink.
 
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Our work never left but it changed. A lot of projects we expected over the summer were canceled (convention related) but others showed up, so overall our numbers are only down about 25%. We've adjusted costs in other ways so no one has had their salary lowered or been laid off. The PPP loan and a grant from the state got us through the adjustment phase. We're mostly working from home. Our sense of oneness as a group has been changed by the isolation and the continuity of the animation process is becoming diminished--not the quality, just the communication process. During the long layover we moved buildings and combined with another company (kind of, it's complicated) so our VP used the time with everyone out of the building to really go through everything, dispose of junk, and upgrade the hardware. So in that respect it has been good but in pretty much every other respect I hate it.
 
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Armourboy

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Our work never left but it changed. A lot of projects we expected over the summer were canceled (convention related) but others showed up, so overall our numbers are only down about 25%. We've adjusted costs in other ways so no one has had their salary lowered or been laid off. The PPP loan and a grant from the state got us through the adjustment phase. We're mostly working from home. Our sense of oneness as a group has been changed by the isolation and the continuity of the animation process is becoming diminished--not the quality, just the communication process. During the long layover we moved buildings and combined with another company (kind of, it's complicated) so our VP used the time with everyone out of the building to really go through everything, dispose of junk, and upgrade the hardware. So in that respect it has been good but in pretty much every other respect I hate it.
Yeah I tend to think for most its probably a good/bad relationship. I know for instance one family member had moved from Ohio to Iowa to Texas over the years for his job. Now he's working from home and was just told recently that it would permanently be that way from now on. Several of his coworkers decided to move back home so now they are debating as to whether they should stay, go back to Des Moines, or move back to his original home town which would allow him to look after his mom and his wife's sister.

I'm sure that freedom is awesome, but I'm going to guess it comes with its own struggles as well.
 

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Yeah I tend to think for most its probably a good/bad relationship. I know for instance one family member had moved from Ohio to Iowa to Texas over the years for his job. Now he's working from home and was just told recently that it would permanently be that way from now on. Several of his coworkers decided to move back home so now they are debating as to whether they should stay, go back to Des Moines, or move back to his original home town which would allow him to look after his mom and his wife's sister.

I'm sure that freedom is awesome, but I'm going to guess it comes with its own struggles as well.
FWIW, have them discuss any moves with their HR person. Where you actually earn your money is where you are when you're earning it. So if you live in Georgia to WFH for a Tennessee based company you may be liable for that state's income taxes and the company may be liable for worker's comp rates for that area. Not knowing that fact isn't an acceptable excuse. Bigger companies are usually set up for WFH but smaller companies often are not. We had an employee who wanted to work out of Georgia and after I looked at all it would involve we had to tell him no--would have cost us (and him) a lot to do that. If he wants to do it he'll have to become a freelancer.

It's going to be a very complicated tax season.
 
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PredsV82

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Remember the "flatten the curve" strategy? And it worked but the shutdown lasted longer than the "two weeks"

We are now seeing exponential growth in cases, in the literal/mathematical sense not just hyperbole. If the Thanksgiving holiday produces a bunch of super spreader events, we will again be looking at potentially exceeding hospital capacity.

Its the perfect storm, sadly. Colder weather, lockdown fatigue, traditional time of year for large indoor gatherings, and a disengaged federal government, both the executive and congress.

The really sad thing is, we are on the cusp of getting a handle on things. The antibody cocktail getting approved and the vaccine near release means if we had the discipline (and the government support) for one more 6 week lockdown by the time we emerged in January we will have some real weapons against this thing.

But it will never happen, and governors will do good to institute half measures at best with no relief from the feds for those who the half measures will hurt.

Buckle up folks, December is going to be absolutely brutal.
 
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