OT: COVID-19 general thread (read OP, post #841)

[Emperoreddy]

Do not post pieces from the opinion sections of news sites as Facts.

it’s listed under opinion for a reason.

 

[njdevils309]

1) Literally not possible in a free society. You're talking about confiscation. Even if you support scary confiscation, HTH do you even manage that. Where is your warehouse? Does it just get used once in 100 years? Spanish flu 1917 & COVID19 2020.
What you're stating sounds so simple, in reality it's enormously complex re: global supply chains. Not to mention constitutional issues.

2) In January WHO was still saying human-to-human transmission wasnt a thing. In February it was much in doubt whether this would 100% be a huge problem until mid-to-late February. Even if you ignore all that, most of the flipping **** is made in China. In other words, good luck with all that.

Don't know if you listen to podcasts, but you should check out the Planet Money episode on vaccines, Episode 977. They explain how the government created a market for vaccines for diseases that were not common, so we would have a supply of them. Rarely ever used, but after the Bird Flu in the early 00's, the US realized they were relying too much on other countries for obscure vaccines, so to get them made here, they paid for the supply (otherwise companies wouldn't make them).

Similar logic can be applied here, all it takes is money really, and the government can create a stockpile by purchasing the supplies over time, and maintain it. There was another podcast I listened to talking about how California had a stockpile for years, but when their economy started to struggle they kinda scrapped it. But with the federal government, no reason they can't maintain it at all times.

 

[My3Sons]

Don't know if you listen to podcasts, but you should check out the Planet Money episode on vaccines, Episode 977. They explain how the government created a market for vaccines for diseases that were not common, so we would have a supply of them. Rarely ever used, but after the Bird Flu in the early 00's, the US realized they were relying too much on other countries for obscure vaccines, so to get them made here, they paid for the supply (otherwise companies wouldn't make them).

Similar logic can be applied here, all it takes is money really, and the government can create a stockpile by purchasing the supplies over time, and maintain it. There was another podcast I listened to talking about how California had a stockpile for years, but when their economy started to struggle they kinda scrapped it. But with the federal government, no reason they can't maintain it at all times.

Money also probably explains why we don't have a vaccine for this virus. While both SARS and MERS were evolving, there was at least one company that had worked on a vaccine and they were making progress but as each potential deadly pandemic fizzled out their funding and incentive dried up. Had they kept working at it we might very well have had a sort of universal Coronavirus type of vaccine.

To me what's amazing is we (US medicine) figure out something of a treatment for Ebola and were able to get people through that, yet with a more widespread and less severe (than Ebola) virus we are floundering. Something seems counterintuitive to me about that.

 

[Azathoth]

Money also probably explains why we don't have a vaccine for this virus. While both SARS and MERS were evolving, there was at least one company that had worked on a vaccine and they were making progress but as each potential deadly pandemic fizzled out their funding and incentive dried up. Had they kept working at it we might very well have had a sort of universal Coronavirus type of vaccine.

To me what's amazing is we (US medicine) figure out something of a treatment for Ebola and were able to get people through that, yet with a more widespread and less severe (than Ebola) virus we are floundering. Something seems counterintuitive to me about that.

One note about Ebola is that the first outbreak for Ebola occurred in the 1970's so scientists and doctors have had a few decades to work on treatments and a vaccine (which didn't come out until 2019). There were pressures to develop SARS and MERS vaccines but they were much more easily contained than Covid-19 has been, so by the time a vaccine candidate was potentially available to move forward to clinical trials the diseases were contained and went away.

 

[My3Sons]

One note about Ebola is that the first outbreak for Ebola occurred in the 1970's so scientists and doctors have had a few decades to work on treatments and a vaccine (which didn't come out until 2019). There were pressures to develop SARS and MERS vaccines but they were much more easily contained than Covid-19 has been, so by the time a vaccine candidate was potentially available to move forward to clinical trials the diseases were contained and went away.

I may have diluted my message.

My point about Ebola was solely that they developed a treatment that helped without having a vaccine.

My point about SARS and MERS was exactly what you said. Those viruses were contained and as a result the incentive to create a vaccine went away. Had they continued research we'd at least likely have something like a flu vaccine in that years when they miss on the flu strain in the vaccine you still get some level of immunity and if you catch the flu it isn't as bad. Maybe they would have developed a more widely applicable coronavirus vaccine and we wouldn't have to worry about them at all.

I shouldn't have offered two different thoughts.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Had they kept working at it we might very well have had a sort of universal Coronavirus type of vaccine.

Scientifically doubtful, every virus is different, binds in a different manner or binding substrate, etc.

 

[My3Sons]

Scientifically doubtful, every virus is different, binds in a different manner or binding substrate, etc.

I read an article that was quoting a team working on a coronavirus vaccine that explained viruses are like lollipops. The candy part may change but the stick typically stays the same. If we could have developed a vaccine for the stick we'd have something more universal. I'm neither a virologist nor an infectious disease specialist. I'll defer to others. That just reflects a reasonably reliable source for something I read. You may be 100% correct.

 

[Azathoth]

I read an article that was quoting a team working on a coronavirus vaccine that explained viruses are like lollipops. The candy part may change but the stick typically stays the same. If we could have developed a vaccine for the stick we'd have something more universal. I'm neither a virologist nor an infectious disease specialist. I'll defer to others. That just reflects a reasonably reliable source for something I read. You may be 100% correct.

Its not quite as simple as that. If you look a flu as an example, the vaccine primes the immune system against the H and N antigens present in/on the flu virus. Since Flu mutates quite easily, we fine tune the vaccine each season against the possible combos of H and N the virus can produce. Those antigens, even though they are same proteins, are still variable enough that if we "guess" wrong, the vaccine is not nearly as effective as it could be (though it can still convey some protection).

To the point of a SARS/MERS vaccine working against the current Covid-19, the answer is maybe it would work a little bit, but probably not. Based the few phylogenetic trees I just quickly looked up, I think there is probably enough divergence between the 3 viruses that a vaccine for one would probably not be all that effective against another (though I'm saying this without really much knowledge as to what viral antigens the candidate vaccines would be targeting etc.).

 

[My3Sons]

Its not quite as simple as that. If you look a flu as an example, the vaccine primes the immune system against the H and N antigens present in/on the flu virus. Since Flu mutates quite easily, we fine tune the vaccine each season against the possible combos of H and N the virus can produce. Those antigens, even though they are same proteins, are still variable enough that if we "guess" wrong, the vaccine is not nearly as effective as it could be (though it can still convey some protection).

To the point of a SARS/MERS vaccine working against the current Covid-19, the answer is maybe it would work a little bit, but probably not. Based the few phylogenetic trees I just quickly looked up, I think there is probably enough divergence between the 3 viruses that a vaccine for one would probably not be all that effective against another (though I'm saying this without really much knowledge as to what viral antigens the candidate vaccines would be targeting etc.).

You are almost certainly right but had they had money to continue working on these things since the first SARS outbreak they'd have a much better head start and just might have gotten their act together on a vaccine before we were in the mess we are in now.

 

[Azathoth]

You are almost certainly right but had they had money to continue working on these things since the first SARS outbreak they'd have a much better head start and just might have gotten their act together on a vaccine before we were in the mess we are in now.

Absolutely. I wish politicians would value science funding WAY more than they do (and I say this for both sides of the political spectrum).

 

[BenedictGomez]

Our CDC has been an absolute unmitigated disaster from the start.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

 

[BenedictGomez]

Accidental double post. I guess it's the perfect time to share my favorite Lewis Carroll poem.

THE WALRUS & THE CARPENTER

The sun was shining on the sea,
Shining with all his might:
He did his very best to make
The billows smooth and bright—
And this was odd, because it was
The middle of the night.
The moon was shining sulkily,
Because she thought the sun
Had got no business to be there
After the day was done—
"It's very rude of him," she said,
"To come and spoil the fun!"
The sea was wet as wet could be,
The sands were dry as dry.
You could not see a cloud because
No cloud was in the sky:
No birds were flying overhead—
There were no birds to fly.
The Walrus and the Carpenter
Were walking close at hand:
They wept like anything to see
Such quantities of sand:
"If this were only cleared away,"
They said, "it would be grand!"
"If seven maids with seven mops
Swept it for half a year,
Do you suppose," the Walrus said,
"That they could get it clear?"
"I doubt it," said the Carpenter,
And shed a bitter tear.
"0 Oysters, come and walk with us!"
The Walrus did beseech.
"A pleasant walk, a pleasant talk,
Along the briny beach:
We cannot do with more than four,
To give a hand to each."
The eldest Oyster looked at him,
But never a word he said;
The eldest Oyster winked his eye,
And shook his heavy head—
Meaning to say he did not choose
To leave the oyster-bed.
But four young Oysters hurried up,
All eager for the treat:
Their coats were brushed, their faces washed,
Their shoes were clean and neat—
And this was odd, because, you know,
They hadn't any feet.
Four other Oysters followed them,
And yet another four;
And thick and fast they came at last,
And more and more and more—
All hopping through the frothy waves,
And scrambling to the shore.
The Walrus and the Carpenter
Walked on a mile or so,
And then they rested on a rock
Conveniently low:
And all the little Oysters stood
And waited in a row.
"The time has come," the Walrus said,
"To talk of many things:
Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
Of cabbages—and kings—
And why the sea is boiling hot—
And whether pigs have wings."
"But wait a bit," the Oysters cried,
"Before we have our chat;
For some of us are out of breath,
And all of us are fat!"
"No hurry!" said the Carpenter.
They thanked him much for that.
"A loaf of bread," the Walrus said,
"Is what we chiefly need:
Pepper and vinegar besides
Are very good indeed—
Now, if you're ready, Oysters dear,
We can begin to feed."
"But not on us!" the Oysters cried,
Turning a little blue.
"After such kindness, that would be
A dismal thing to do!"
"The night is fine," the Walrus said,
"Do you admire the view?
"It was so kind of you to come!
And you are very nice!"
The Carpenter said nothing but
"Cut us another slice.
I wish you were not quite so deaf—
I've had to ask you twice!"
"It seems a shame," the Walrus said,
"To play them such a trick.
After we've brought them out so far,
And made them trot so quick!"
The Carpenter said nothing but
"The butter's spread too thick!"
"I weep for you," the Walrus said:
"I deeply sympathize."
With sobs and tears he sorted out
Those of the largest size,
Holding his pocket-handkerchief
Before his streaming eyes.
"0 Oysters," said the Carpenter,
"You've had a pleasant run!
Shall we be trotting home again?"
But answer came there none—
And this was scarcely odd, because
They'd eaten every one.

 

[My3Sons]

Accidental double post. I guess it's the perfect time to share my favorite Lewis Carroll poem.

THE WALRUS & THE CARPENTER

The sun was shining on the sea,
Shining with all his might:
He did his very best to make
The billows smooth and bright—
And this was odd, because it was
The middle of the night.
The moon was shining sulkily,
Because she thought the sun
Had got no business to be there
After the day was done—
"It's very rude of him," she said,
"To come and spoil the fun!"
The sea was wet as wet could be,
The sands were dry as dry.
You could not see a cloud because
No cloud was in the sky:
No birds were flying overhead—
There were no birds to fly.
The Walrus and the Carpenter
Were walking close at hand:
They wept like anything to see
Such quantities of sand:
"If this were only cleared away,"
They said, "it would be grand!"
"If seven maids with seven mops
Swept it for half a year,
Do you suppose," the Walrus said,
"That they could get it clear?"
"I doubt it," said the Carpenter,
And shed a bitter tear.
"0 Oysters, come and walk with us!"
The Walrus did beseech.
"A pleasant walk, a pleasant talk,
Along the briny beach:
We cannot do with more than four,
To give a hand to each."
The eldest Oyster looked at him,
But never a word he said;
The eldest Oyster winked his eye,
And shook his heavy head—
Meaning to say he did not choose
To leave the oyster-bed.
But four young Oysters hurried up,
All eager for the treat:
Their coats were brushed, their faces washed,
Their shoes were clean and neat—
And this was odd, because, you know,
They hadn't any feet.
Four other Oysters followed them,
And yet another four;
And thick and fast they came at last,
And more and more and more—
All hopping through the frothy waves,
And scrambling to the shore.
The Walrus and the Carpenter
Walked on a mile or so,
And then they rested on a rock
Conveniently low:
And all the little Oysters stood
And waited in a row.
"The time has come," the Walrus said,
"To talk of many things:
Of shoes—and ships—and sealing-wax—
Of cabbages—and kings—
And why the sea is boiling hot—
And whether pigs have wings."
"But wait a bit," the Oysters cried,
"Before we have our chat;
For some of us are out of breath,
And all of us are fat!"
"No hurry!" said the Carpenter.
They thanked him much for that.
"A loaf of bread," the Walrus said,
"Is what we chiefly need:
Pepper and vinegar besides
Are very good indeed—
Now, if you're ready, Oysters dear,
We can begin to feed."
"But not on us!" the Oysters cried,
Turning a little blue.
"After such kindness, that would be
A dismal thing to do!"
"The night is fine," the Walrus said,
"Do you admire the view?
"It was so kind of you to come!
And you are very nice!"
The Carpenter said nothing but
"Cut us another slice.
I wish you were not quite so deaf—
I've had to ask you twice!"
"It seems a shame," the Walrus said,
"To play them such a trick.
After we've brought them out so far,
And made them trot so quick!"
The Carpenter said nothing but
"The butter's spread too thick!"
"I weep for you," the Walrus said:
"I deeply sympathize."
With sobs and tears he sorted out
Those of the largest size,
Holding his pocket-handkerchief
Before his streaming eyes.
"0 Oysters," said the Carpenter,
"You've had a pleasant run!
Shall we be trotting home again?"
But answer came there none—
And this was scarcely odd, because
They'd eaten every one.

I am the walrus - JOHN Lennon 1967

And here’s another clue for you all,
The walrus was PAUL - John Lennon 1968

 

[Azathoth]

I am the walrus - JOHN Lennon 1967

And here’s another clue for you all,
The walrus was PAUL - John Lennon 1968

I am the walrus - Theodore Donald Kerabatsos

 

[BenedictGomez]

I am the walrus - JOHN Lennon 1967

And here’s another clue for you all,
The walrus was PAUL - John Lennon 1968

Well done.

 

[None Shall Pass]

I just figured that once Jim heard about a pandemic, he went finally went fully off the grid with a trusty bow and a solid stock of whiskey.

 

[njdevils1982]

what a f***ing joke…..cant say much more as per site rules

Dr. Fauci says it's 'mind-boggling' that any of China's wet markets are still operating

 

[Emperoreddy]

The issue isn’t money. It’s time.

there is a lot of work developing a vaccine and then a lot of time in testing it both to verify it is effective and to verify it’s safe. That takes months if not years. You have to do animal trials, then limited human trials, then larger human trials.

Then you have to mass produce it once you get to that point and that also takes time.

 

[Davegarri]

I just figured that once Jim heard about a pandemic, he went finally went fully off the grid with a trusty bow and a solid stock of whiskey.

I imagine he's somewhere out in the mountains of Wyoming or Utah fishing out of the Green river and pounding whiskey on his nights off.

 

[glenwo2]

The issue isn’t money. It’s time.

there is a lot of work developing a vaccine and then a lot of time in testing it both to verify it is effective and to verify it’s safe. That takes months if not years. You have to do animal trials, then limited human trials, then larger human trials.

Then you have to mass produce it once you get to that point and that also takes time.

So in other words, it's going to be awhile.

 

[njdevils1982]

I imagine he's somewhere out in the mountains of Wyoming or Utah fishing out of the Green river and pounding whiskey on his nights off.

 

[None Shall Pass]

Official Counts Understate the U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll

Across the United States, even as coronavirus deaths are being recorded in terrifying numbers — many hundreds each day — the true death toll is likely much higher.

More than 9,100 people with the coronavirus have been reported to have died in this country as of this weekend, but hospital officials, doctors, public health experts and medical examiners say that official counts have failed to capture the true number of Americans dying in this pandemic, as a result of inconsistent protocols, limited resources and a patchwork of decision-making from one state or county to the next.

In many rural areas, coroners say they don’t have the tests they need to detect the disease. Doctors now believe that some deaths in February and early March, before the coronavirus reached epidemic levels in the United States, were likely misidentified as influenza or only described as pneumonia.

With no uniform system for reporting coronavirus-related deaths in the United States, and a continued shortage of tests, some states and counties have improvised, obfuscated and, at times, backtracked in counting the dead.

 

[Edmonton East]

Official Counts Understate the U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll

Lol what trash journalism.

Counterpoint - you can use the exact logic from that crappy article and argue deaths are overstated because docs are just labeling people corona out of an abundance of caution when they don't have sufficient tests.

Which btw is actually what happening during bird and swine flu. Hell, the article even says some states have backtracked on numbers at times.

I am so sick of these articles that say NOTHING of value and just have click-bait titles. Let's try some common sense journalism. Based on how contagious it is and daily US/China travel (nevermind other countries), it was definitely hitting the US hard in December. So yea, in that sense, deaths are probably understated. BUT, that also means the mortality rate is certainly drastically overstated.

 

[Billdo]

I feel like with the increased amount of tests being done there will obviously be a ton more positive tests yet nobody is reporting the amount of people who HAVENT died. You have to do the math yourself and for a lot of people they're just not doing it. That by no means is me discounting the deaths as it's obviously horrifying but in a land of negativity people can use some positivity and a report on the amount of people recovering would be nice to see.

 

[TheUnseenHand]

I feel like with the increased amount of tests being done there will obviously be a ton more positive tests yet nobody is reporting the amount of people who HAVENT died. You have to do the math yourself and for a lot of people they're just not doing it. That by no means is me discounting the deaths as it's obviously horrifying but in a land of negativity people can use some positivity and a report on the amount of people recovering would be nice to see.

There are many many thousands of people who were infected and either showed no symptoms or just got over it. You can likely count me in the "got over it" group back in late November, early December when, for the first time in like 15 years I got a fever, felt like crap for an entire week, and had a nagging cough and shortness of breath for 6 weeks afterward. None of those will get counted in the numbers.

There is far far far more we don't know than we do right now. I'm really tired of headline reading experts. I'm really tired of the headline writers. I'm really tired of the education system that has so completely failed people that the ability to think critically is a concept 95% of this country doesn't understand, and I'm really tired of the sensationalism and the other extreme of "it's nothing". I don't know, you don't know, no one on this site knows (no matter how much they act like they do); even those most educated on the subject working on developing a vaccine don't know. Some people need to calm down, and others need to take it seriously so we can all meet in the middle which is 1. Take precautions. Simple hygiene rules still apply and should after this is "over". 2. If you have symptoms, stay home. Limit your travels otherwise. If you are in a really bad way, go to the hospital.