COVID-19/Coronavirus Talk - Part II

[Ranksu]

I am convinced that if we did periodic hard shutdowns, a hard closing of borders, mandatory quarantines and better contract tracing that our economic reduction would have been less severe, while also saving more lives. We were too loose with the strategy and it caused things to get worse instead of better. It also didn’t help that the buy in was not up to the level it needed to be to be successful. The selfish and foolish nature of too many citizens cost lives, jobs and mental health.

The evidence bears out when you look at the countries that successfully did the thing I mentioned versus those countries that did not, those engaging those activities faired better.

Well I dont know is it proper to say this, but I think Finland has manage with this covid decent level. Well take for example our neighbor Sweden. They fail big time. We both have top notch health care.

Sweden are now forced to lockdown boards, 'cus they have worrisome if british variant will spread how poorly they follow quidelines.

Finland:
Total Cases: 47,262 (+368 today)
Active Cases: 15,574
Critical Cases: 23
Deaths: 688
Recoveries: 31,000
Total Tests: 2,915,972
Tests/1M Pop: 525,789


Sweden:
Total Cases: 588,062
Active Cases: N/A
Critical Cases: 240
Deaths: 12,115
Recoveries: N/A
Total Tests: 5,499,317
Tests/1M Pop: 542,498

 

[SaintLouHaintBlue]

It sucks to be unemployed. Sorry you are going through that. Best of luck finding something!

I hope so too - thank you for your kind words.

 

[SaintLouHaintBlue]

I am convinced that if we did periodic hard shutdowns, a hard closing of borders, mandatory quarantines and better contract tracing that our economic reduction would have been less severe, while also saving more lives. We were too loose with the strategy and it caused things to get worse instead of better. It also didn’t help that the buy in was not up to the level it needed to be to be successful. The selfish and foolish nature of too many citizens cost lives, jobs and mental health.

The evidence bears out when you look at the countries that successfully did the thing I mentioned versus those countries that did not, those engaging those activities faired better.

I do have one question about your approach, however.
If the "hard shutdowns" and "mandatory quarantines" happen to be catastrophic to particular industries, what then? How does one gain exception?

One of the things I have watched unfold in my state is, in the midst of the very shutdowns you describe - particular seasonal industries were included, and NO exception was given, despite numerous pleas.
Many seasonal businesses, particularly those who rely heavily on tourism, were deemed "nonessential" and required to be closed, with no successful appeal process.

Many of them have found creative ways to stay afloat - but it is uncertain how long that will last. With winters as cold as they are, it requires a lot of savings to be able to last the months where tourism cannot be relied on.

 

[Celtic Note]

I do have one question about your approach, however.
If the "hard shutdowns" and "mandatory quarantines" happen to be catastrophic to particular industries, what then? How does one gain exception?

One of the things I have watched unfold in my state is, in the midst of the very shutdowns you describe - particular seasonal industries were included, and NO exception was given, despite numerous pleas.
Many seasonal businesses, particularly those who rely heavily on tourism, were deemed "nonessential" and required to be closed, with no successful appeal process.

Many of them have found creative ways to stay afloat - but it is uncertain how long that will last. With winters as cold as they are, it requires a lot of savings to be able to last the months where tourism cannot be relied on.

Inevitably lockdowns cause hardships. Seasonal or otherwise, any lockdown can and will be trying.

To clarify on the definition of hard lockdown, I would say we should have been more stringent than we have seen on our lockdowns. The essential services definition was too broad. Too many were able to communicate the disease even during the lockdowns. Paired with that were the as you see fit individual quarantines. The required self isolations were too lax. In softening these requirements we opened the opportunity for greater spread, which caused longer term lockdowns. If we had been firm, the lockdown period could have been limited and short. Instead it got drawn out. A 2-3 week quarantine would sting, but if done right and supported properly with some financial support, it’s a lot more doable then long term lock downs where the virus continues to spread and those of us under the upper 10% income class suffer.

Flash forward to where we are now, we half asses this thing and now we are bleeding money out of middle and low income households and the virus has still caused +300k more deaths then in the prior year.

Honestly, if we were both united and smart, I guarantee that we would have saved more lives and jobs. Regrettably, that didn’t happen.

 

[SaintLouHaintBlue]

Inevitably lockdowns cause hardships. Seasonal or otherwise, any lockdown can and will be trying.

Ah yes - but my point is that - these businesses, due to there seasonal nature - have only a short time to capitalize.
Against lockdowns, these businesses are the very definition of a sitting duck. In terms of how much they are needed to sustain human life, most people would likely classify them as non-essential.
No one "needs" golf courses in Traverse City, or wineries, or boat docks and marinas.
*For the record, I am not exactly in the same boat as these places (no pun intended), but I do share their pain, just in a different industry.

There are only a small window where these businesses can really capitalize (very late Spring, Summer, and a very brief window in the fall), and these months faced the strictest lockdowns.
This is because, besides lumberjacks and Eskimos, people do not generally travel almost to Canada to golf and drink wine in sub-zero temperatures.

So, what was attempted - was that these businesses tried to put together a business case that they could manage to stay open the best they could - with as many guaranteed precautions as they could come up with. Officials needed to act quickly, but business owners were arguing for a way to stay open during the months they rely on the most for income, before closing - seasonally.
What they got instead, was a double-down on lockdowns, plus further restrictions on personal travel (see: travel between residences ban). The pain of not making enough money during those months is that it doesn't get any better during the winter. It gets worse, and the people running these businesses are now precariously dependent, which they are not used to being.

So, generally speaking - I am very much against lockdowns, unless the officials enacting them do something to acknowledge their subjects' desire for independence AND share in the pain equally.
I do understand what you are saying, and I do even agree, to a point - but if we are going to go the route of a short, but effective lockdown period - then the arguments needed to be short, pithy, and open to adjustments.

But oh well.. what can any of us really do now?

 

[SaintLouHaintBlue]

I just thought of this, but an analogy that I've thought if (in the way that I perceive lockdowns) is war.
So many times, war is declared by politicians from the comfort of their desk, yet they are nowhere to be seen once the grisly details start coming out.

If a politician wants to declare war - my expectation is that they would state clearly the reasons for doing so, almost as a business case - and be open to rebuttal.
Then, they would take their place on the battlefield along with the people they represent and that they have issued into war.

 

[Celtic Note]

Ah yes - but my point is that - these businesses, due to there seasonal nature - have only a short time to capitalize.
Against lockdowns, these businesses are the very definition of a sitting duck. In terms of how much they are needed to sustain human life, most people would likely classify them as non-essential.
No one "needs" golf courses in Traverse City, or wineries, or boat docks and marinas.
*For the record, I am not exactly in the same boat as these places (no pun intended), but I do share their pain, just in a different industry.

There are only a small window where these businesses can really capitalize (very late Spring, Summer, and a very brief window in the fall), and these months faced the strictest lockdowns.
This is because, besides lumberjacks and Eskimos, people do not generally travel almost to Canada to golf and drink wine in sub-zero temperatures.

So, what was attempted - was that these businesses tried to put together a business case that they could manage to stay open the best they could - with as many guaranteed precautions as they could come up with. Officials needed to act quickly, but business owners were arguing for a way to stay open during the months they rely on the most for income, before closing - seasonally.
What they got instead, was a double-down on lockdowns, plus further restrictions on personal travel (see: travel between residences ban). The pain of not making enough money during those months is that it doesn't get any better during the winter. It gets worse, and the people running these businesses are now precariously dependent, which they are not used to being.

So, generally speaking - I am very much against lockdowns, unless the officials enacting them do something to acknowledge their subjects' desire for independence AND share in the pain equally.
I do understand what you are saying, and I do even agree, to a point - but if we are going to go the route of a short, but effective lockdown period - then the arguments needed to be short, pithy, and open to adjustments.

But oh well.. what can any of us really do now?

We have to have lockdowns or hospitals would be completely overwhelmed and more people would have lost their lives. This was already a problem of capacity with lockdowns. Without them the problem amplifies at an exponential rate. In addition, there is an exponential spike in deaths. I am not sure what the exact number of lost live would have been, but it’s probably safe to say that over 1M additional live would have been lost over the annual average.

While it sucks to lose jobs and businesses, both of those can be resilient and come back. Lost lives cannot.

Have certain groups been hit harder than others as a result of the virus and lockdowns? Absolutely. It’s not fair. It does illustrate many of the flaws with our society and our economic structures. Will we learn and change? That’s the real question.

Another question is how to respond to those hit hardest. Governments are spending an exorbitant amount of money in stimulus. If we were smart that stimulus would be directed to those hit hardest with less given to those hurting less and none given to people not hurting. Why do I say that? Well, it’s in society’s best interest. Do you want to keep our social systems from being overloaded and costing us all more? I would hope so. Do we realize that these handouts will have to be paid for later and that it’s not free money? Again, I hope so. Do we realize that people being out of work increases the number of crimes in our communities because people are acting out of desperation? We should. So, we need to keep people afloat where possible for their interest and our collective ones as well. We need to avoid creating more problems through sloppily constructed responses. We have enough to worry about by not compounding problems.

 

[SneakerPimp82]

I do have one question about your approach, however.
If the "hard shutdowns" and "mandatory quarantines" happen to be catastrophic to particular industries, what then? How does one gain exception?

One of the things I have watched unfold in my state is, in the midst of the very shutdowns you describe - particular seasonal industries were included, and NO exception was given, despite numerous pleas.
Many seasonal businesses, particularly those who rely heavily on tourism, were deemed "nonessential" and required to be closed, with no successful appeal process.

Many of them have found creative ways to stay afloat - but it is uncertain how long that will last. With winters as cold as they are, it requires a lot of savings to be able to last the months where tourism cannot be relied on.

Better COVID relief policy, i.e. unemployment or monthly checks. It's really the easiest way to keep people afloat during these lockdowns. But of course, Congress disagrees.

 

[Ranksu]

No lockdown and quidelines hospitals would reach their full capacity = anarchy. Rest of world can watch USA's path.

I feel bad that poor ppl suffer this situation more. How bad health care system is in USA.

 

[SaintLouHaintBlue]

While it sucks to lose jobs and businesses, both of those can be resilient and come back. Lost lives cannot.

I promise I'm not trying to force in the last word - but people can (and do) lose hope when they are in that situation, and sometimes life ends that way.
A failure in leadership will cause that to happen. It's very similar to what the rat race does to people.

It's been at least half a year for me. The only way I have gotten through it is being incredibly resourceful with money. None of my expenses have stopped, I have had to coast on zero income for at least half a year, and I have been denied all of my applications for financial aid.
When I was employed - I watched very similar situations unfold practically right in the middle of conference calls, so I have said what I could to defend those people. It becomes very taxing on the mind.. hell - this is a lockdown!.

Now, I have explained what I have thought of lockdowns to others, in positions that carry more clout than my own - for the sake of being a mediator - since I understand how they can be effective, but do not agree with them at all unless they can be executed by people that actually have the maturity to use them.

My opinion is - if strict lockdowns with flawless execution (for a short duration) have a chance at success, - then the only way this can be achieved in a country this large and diverse is if there were protocols already defined and regularly practiced - in a similar fashion to any other preparedness drill, such as hurricanes or earthquakes.
My opinion has been shaped from working with South Koreans, and having traveled to South Korea. They have a practiced and refined pandemic response because they tend to face pandemics more often (less contagious) - from neighboring countries. They are a small, densely populated country with a homogenous culture.

It is unfortunate that no one was forward thinking enough to come up with such a plan.

 

[Celtic Note]

I promise I'm not trying to force in the last word - but people can (and do) lose hope when they are in that situation, and sometimes life ends that way.
A failure in leadership will cause that to happen. It's very similar to what the rat race does to people.

It's been at least half a year for me. The only way I have gotten through it is being incredibly resourceful with money. None of my expenses have stopped, I have had to coast on zero income for at least half a year, and I have been denied all of my applications for financial aid.
When I was employed - I watched very similar situations unfold practically right in the middle of conference calls, so I have said what I could to defend those people. It becomes very taxing on the mind.. hell - this is a lockdown!.

Now, I have explained what I have thought of lockdowns to others, in positions that carry more clout than my own - for the sake of being a mediator - since I understand how they can be effective, but do not agree with them at all unless they can be executed by people that actually have the maturity to use them.

My opinion is - if strict lockdowns with flawless execution (for a short duration) have a chance at success, - then the only way this can be achieved in a country this large and diverse is if there were protocols already defined and regularly practiced - in a similar fashion to any other preparedness drill, such as hurricanes or earthquakes.
My opinion has been shaped from working with South Koreans, and having traveled to South Korea. They have a practiced and refined pandemic response because they tend to face pandemics more often (less contagious) - from neighboring countries. They are a small, densely populated country with a homogenous culture.

It is unfortunate that no one was forward thinking enough to come up with such a plan.

People can and do lose hope in tough financial situations. I heard that suicides are up which makes sense. I am fairly in touch with how mental health issues can cause a myriad of issues when stress loads increase. Unemployment and financial hardship are significant stressors. So mental health will undoubtedly take a hit. The weight of all of this is heavy. It’s certainly something that needs to be factored in.

You are right about the rat race too.

To me the strategy should be to help the greatest number possible with the overarching big decision. Then, make smaller more targeted moves to support as many that are left behind in the overall big move. That way you limit the number impacted and the number of resources it takes to help keep those afloat who need it. What we saw happen wasn’t that strategic. It was more like reactive flailing.

I agree that there should have been a strategy developed and practiced ahead of time. We do fire drills and test tornado sirens, we even used to do drills for bombs during the Cold War (not sure that was all that valuable though). There has been a looming threat of both viruses and contagions (including biowarfare). The government has facilities to study both. So why not prepare citizens when we co it for other things? I am sure there are reasons. Who knows if they are good ones.

 

[Ranksu]

Over 500 000 death.

USA:
Total Cases: 28,838,481 (+12,174 today)
Active Cases: 9,200,783
Critical Cases: 16,561
Deaths: 513,214 (+624 today)
Recoveries: 19,124,484
Total Tests: 349,995,715
Tests/1M Pop: 1,053,389

 

[Ranksu]

Got my 2nd vaccine. Fever, muscle pain everywhere and eye pain was strange.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Got my 2nd vaccine. Fever, muscle pain everywhere and eye pain was strange.

That's part of the 5G tracking chip settling in. Don't worry, you should be able to do telekinesis by the weekend, quantum shiftshaping by the weekend after if you got the elite version of the chip. If you didn't, ... bummer, it's pretty cool putting your hand through the wall and moving stuff around the neighbor's house. Freaks their dog out when it sees me blink, which is an extra bonus.

 

[Ranksu]

CDC projected 250k deaths and usa is over 600k deaths.


USA:
Total Cases: 33,747,638 (+199 today)
Active Cases: 5,944,794
Critical Cases: 7,790
Deaths: 600,535 (+2 today)
Recoveries: 27,202,309
Total Tests: 467,222,796
Tests/1M Pop: 1,404,331

 

[ChicagoBlues]

I’d like one of those, please.

I want extra more.

 

[Ranksu]

Florida rock concert tickets are $18 if you're vaccinated – $1,000 if you're not

 

[Ranksu]

 

[Celtic Note]

Pretty standard fare at this point. We missed the opportunity to nip this in the bud twice and so now we are left with it perpetually being in our lives, like the flu. Fortunately, the people who are vaccinated are likely protected from the mortality of the virus.

 

[The Note]

Pretty standard fare at this point. We missed the opportunity to nip this in the bud twice and so now we are left with it perpetually being in our lives, like the flu. Fortunately, the people who are vaccinated are likely protected from the mortality of the virus.

Yup. People are eating horse dewormer rather than a readily available, effective vaccine. The (horse)paste isn’t going back in the tube.

 

[Ranksu]

Yup. People are eating horse dewormer rather than a readily available, effective vaccine. The (horse)paste isn’t going back in the tube.

What is the thing behind of it? Just American way of thinking or does it have any science evidence?

 

[AjaxManifesto]

Pretty standard fare at this point. We missed the opportunity to nip this in the bud twice and so now we are left with it perpetually being in our lives, like the flu. Fortunately, the people who are vaccinated are likely protected from the mortality of the virus.

Doubtful.

Inside Israel's recent outbreak: Why mostly vaccinated people are testing positive

 

[AjaxManifesto]

Yup. People are eating horse dewormer rather than a readily available, effective vaccine. The (horse)paste isn’t going back in the tube.

Yes...queue up the angry internet mob to attack, mock, and destroy people who don't follow the othodoxy of the one chosen solution to this problem. In my view there should be multiple solutions. From prophylaxis treatments to therapeutics. Sadly our government and Big Tech companies have selected just one approach to this and anything that deviates from this is either openly mocked or censored. I've never seen anything like this in my lifetime.

Joe Rogan says he has Covid, took widely discredited drug ivermectin

I'm in the category of vaccine hesitancy. I'm not anti-vax. In fact, I'm up to date on my vaccinations for a host of diseases and I usually get a yearly flu vaccine. But there is zero long term safety data on mRNA based vaccines. Yes, ZERO long term safety data. I'm waiting for a more conventional COVID vaccine to roll out. One based on technologies with decades of use and data. Novovax is one that I'm keeping my eye on.

The problem today is everything is political and tribal. Moreover, we have traded person liberty for a perception of safety. We've closed ourselves down to looking outside the box and questioning what we are told. We approach this across all age and health groups in a "one solution fits all" approach when we should be multifaceted in how we tackle this. It's comply and obey with what you are told by the government, else you are public enemy #1.

Just my thoughts 18+ months into this pandemic. I believe I caught COVID early on (Feb/Mar 2020) during a business trip to Seattle (a hot zone at the time). I've never had a flu like I experience at that time. I recovered in a few days, but it was very strange.

I'm willing to keep questioning things and not just going along for convenience. If that puts me in your cross hairs for derision, so be it.

 

[AjaxManifesto]

Agree or disagree with Tim Pool, but he discusses the topic openly. Like I said, it's all getting tribal and very close minded.

 

[Celtic Note]

Doubtful.

Inside Israel's recent outbreak: Why mostly vaccinated people are testing positive

What does that have to do with what I said?