Could the Tri-Cities (Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge) support an NHL team?

[Melrose Munch]

but that's not the narrative being put out here by many posters. People have been saying that any Canadian market can support an NHL franchise. This is why we see nonsense such as Halifax or Saskatoon or Regina or wherever being thrown out. Ottawa is proving this wrong with every game.

Well obviously there were wrong or only referring to Toronto and Montreal . But I think you know they mean that they feel the Canadian markets are stronger then the american ones.

 

[edog37]

Well obviously there were wrong or only referring to Toronto and Montreal . But I think you know they mean that they feel the Canadian markets are stronger then the american ones.

No doubt they think that, but the reality just doesn't bear out. Sure, adding back Quebec would be great for nostalgic reasons, but until the dollar situation is more stable, it's largely a non-starter.

But to go further into your point, that depends on the markets being compared. If you put say Carolina up against Edmonton, chances are Edmonton wins out. But if you put Minneapolis up against Halifax, then no. There aren't absolutes here....

 

[GuelphStormer]

But to go further into your point, that depends on the markets being compared. If you put say Carolina up against Edmonton, chances are Edmonton wins out. But if you put Minneapolis up against Halifax, then no. There aren't absolutes here....

how about Phoenix compared to Hamilton?

 

[edog37]

how about Phoenix compared to Hamilton?

double down, Pittsburgh compared to Hamilton....

 

[GuelphStormer]

double down, Pittsburgh compared to Hamilton....

no doubt, Pittsburgh is a great and storied hockey market ... but there's also no doubt, a team in Hamilton would have higher revenues and an overall higher valuation ...

 

[Cellee]

I don't know anything about them, but I drove through them with my girlfriend when I was in Ontario last month and they seem like a pretty big metro to me. Could an NHL franchise succeed there?

Just humble bragging about having a gf!

 

[TheLegend]

double down, Pittsburgh compared to Hamilton....

Go for the trifecta and add Nashville.

Seriously tho.... the NHL already admitted what a Hamilton franchise was worth back in 2009.

 

[Bjorn Le]

Hamilton would be the front runner because it has an arena that could be updated to NHL standards for about 150-200M. I'm not sure how long it will be before building a new stadium is roughly the same price as updating First Ontario Centre.

The $150-200m figure hasn't really been true for at least years. To make it the equivalent of a modern NHL arena, you're looking at closer to $500m (on top of the price it would cost to buy it). We're already at the point where building a new arena is more viable than updating the FOC.

Absolutely but they would not be playing out of the Tri City area but would be part of a regional team based in Hamilton in a renovated FirstOntario Center or a new arena in Hamilton or in one of it's many suburbs such as Flambrough , Waterdown or Ancaster for example .

My prediction is a regional NHL. team for Southern Ontario in the Hamilton area will happen by 2030 .

I'm wondering when you're going to give this schtick up. In 2030, will it be Hamilton will happen by 2050? You need to understand that Hamilton is not the type of city the NHL wants to go to.

 

[coolboarder]

I don't think that it would be successful. Look at Ottawa having some issues with attendance for years even they were a playoff contender during that era. Quebec City would have a better chance of having a stronger market than Ottawa if it were to be relocated than a 2nd team in Southern Ontario. They used to have a 2nd team in Southern Ontario and they folded despite having a bigger population at that time. Hamilton Bulldog used to be in NHL that time and wasn't successful. Buffalo Sabres is the closest to 2nd team in Ontario but it's still not even close and located in Western NY and they were still mediocre in term of attendance with majority of fans in Southern Ontario. I honestly having some doubt about having 2nd team in Ontario.

 

[Jeffrey93]

It could....but 3 unknown Canadian cities hosting a team that would draw from Hamilton....compared to one possibly unknown city that would draw from the 3 unknown.

You could make a case for it, being farther from Toronto & Buffalo would help. I'm not sure how you'd get an arena built in one location in that area but have all 3 cities contribute to it and all 3 cities benefit somehow.

It's fine to draw from all three as well as further....but one of those places has to go it alone in building a rink and providing the infrastructure needed for an NHL venue and team. That's not likely to happen, not impossible...but building an arena in one city for one city is hard enough.

The population of the "Tri-cities" is about 525,000.....the population of Hamilton is 536,000. Both are doing well...both are growing....one has all the population within one city...the other is the sum of three.

In theory I think it could be supported.....but it would never happen due to political and money issues as well as the lack of familiarity of the region in most NHL markets. I mean, not everyone knows about Hamilton either....but they do have a CFL team, had an AHL team for 20 years or so....were in the spotlight numerous times as a potential NHL market. There is some knowledge of the city in the USA within the sports/hockey community.

If it ever happened it would rely on surrounding area for support.....as would Hamilton, but moving further east drops the surrounding area population significantly. Having said that....it also increases the miles as the crow flies from Toronto & Buffalo. So, there's that too.

I'm rambling now. It COULD....but realistically there is next to zero chance that it will get the opportunity.

 

[Fourier]

The $150-200m figure hasn't really been true for at least years. To make it the equivalent of a modern NHL arena, you're looking at closer to $500m (on top of the price it would cost to buy it). We're already at the point where building a new arena is more viable than updating the FOC.

This is definitely the case. In fact I might argue that having the existing arena might make the case more difficult. A significant portion of the population will argue that the existing facility is "good enough". This is precisely what happened in Edmonton and is now happening in Calgary.

The Waterloo region is not likely to push for an arena anytime soon but I could see it happening down the line. This is a community with money and having to go to Toronto for major events is not so convenient. But since the NHL is extremely unlikely to ever put a franchise in a location no one outside of Ontario even knows where it is, my guess is that the scale of such an arena might be more like the MTS center.

 

[edog37]

no doubt, Pittsburgh is a great and storied hockey market ... but there's also no doubt, a team in Hamilton would have higher revenues and an overall higher valuation ...

I wouldn't bet the farm on the former & certainly not on the latter....

 

[Killion]

This is definitely the case. In fact I might argue that having the existing arena might make the case more difficult. A significant portion of the population will argue that the existing facility is "good enough". This is precisely what happened in Edmonton and is now happening in Calgary.

The Waterloo region is not likely to push for an arena anytime soon but I could see it happening down the line. This is a community with money and having to go to Toronto for major events is not so convenient. But since the NHL is extremely unlikely to ever put a franchise in a location no one outside of Ontario even knows where it is, my guess is that the scale of such an arena might be more like the MTS center.

Not seeing it Fourier. Yes iot could support a team at the gate... if this was 1988 or whatever. But the sponsors, corporate, not seeing it out there. Secondly. homogeneous region. Lack of identity. Like a Quaker Oats factory exploded back in 56 when they first thought about Amalgamation. Doesnt get any more bland. Even in the late 60's early 70's when I played Jr the once famous rivalries just gone baby gone. You walked into those old arenas, period pieces, smelling 80yrs of tears & joy but the crowds? The teams? Dead.... then we had immigration. Massive. What % of the residents have the time for or could care less about Jr let alone pro hockey?

 

[Fourier]

Not seeing it Fourier. Yes iot could support a team at the gate... if this was 1988 or whatever. But the sponsors, corporate, not seeing it out there. Secondly. homogeneous region. Lack of identity. Like a Quaker Oats factory exploded back in 56 when they first thought about Amalgamation. Doesnt get any more bland. Even in the late 60's early 70's when I played Jr the once famous rivalries just gone baby gone. You walked into those old arenas, period pieces, smelling 80yrs of tears & joy but the crowds? The teams? Dead.... then we had immigration. Massive. What % of the residents have the time for or could care less about Jr let alone pro hockey?

To be clear I think there is 0 chance this area gets an NHL team but I think you may be underestimating the corporate strength of the region. In addition to the insurance companies there is a growing and very vibrant tech sector that is community focused. They want the region to expand its facilities to help them attract and retain talent. The workforce is young and has the money to spend on recreation. Lots of companies could afford various levels of sponsorship investment as a perk for their workforce. Add in only Guelph (which would be about a 15 minute drive to where I expect that arena to be ) and the GDP is a little more than that of Winnipeg.

I am not sure if you are suggesting that the area is not interested in hockey but it is my sense that this is not the case. The Rangers draw about 7000 per game even when they are not so good. There are also some rather successful GOJHL franchises in the region as well and healthy minor league system.

 

[Masked]

The area doesn't have the infrastructure for an NHL team. There's no airport, instead they'd have to bus in from YYZ and that's about an hour on a day with good traffic on the 401. AFAIK, there's no NHL calibre hotels in the region for the players to stay at. Their downtown road networks couldn't handle the traffic generated by an NHL game but if they put the rink by the 401, we all know how suburban rinks tend to fare.

 

[garbageteam]

Canada is 100% maxed out despite what fivethirtyeight thinks, with the notable exception of QC. I'm not convinced the GTA or the Greater Golden Horseshoe is in need of a second team. KW is so far down the pecking order for the league, which will possibly be wrestling with overexpansion that this might as well be an NHL to Saskatoon or Halifax thread.