Friedman: Could the pens retain salary on phil kessel?

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Fancy Gina Carano
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If they are, it's a way to increase value to get a higher pick/better player. Would have to see the trade proposal to determine if that was something I was winning to do.

I see LA mentioned, so I will use them as an example.

For argument sake, assume the deal is: Pearson+Martinez for Kessel+something. Now if the deal went from that to Toffoli+Martinez for Kessel ($1mil retained). I would say yes.

Pens have the benefit of being okay with keeping Phil...and i"m sure that makes a lot of us Pens fans happy. The luxury of not "having" to move him, I believe, outweighs the leverage of asking for retaining unless the return is too enticing.
 

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You’d think Armstrong would be in on him if he’s actually available. He’d fit wonderfully with Schwartz/Schenn. Tarasenko would play with whatever center we pick up, and one of Fabbri/Steen. Would make for a wonderful top 6.

You guys have a lot of interesting young players in Fabbri, Kostin, Thompson, and Barbrashev.

Two of them would probably do it. Problem is, I think the players JR would target from St. Louis would be the very guys you would want Phil playing with in the first place. On defense, I think you guys need the guys we would target. Hard to determine what St. Louis "could" even offer.
 

Filthy Dangles

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Why on Earth would PIT deal him? They're going nowhere and he just came off a career high in points. Makes their PP go and their 3rd line go.
 
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rent free

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I'm just speaking from experience because Leafs fans thought they would get a fair value in return knowing Kessel's potential for scoring goals. So that's why Penguins fans should not assume the same thing until it actually happens.
the leafs wanted to get rid of kessel so they took an underwhelming offer to do so. the penguins don't want to get rid of kessel so it would take a fair/overwhelming offer to do so
 

Son Goku

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The Malkin/Crosby factor, age (31 when the season starts), and the fact that he probably can't run in all systems makes me think his value probably wouldn't be as high as some people here expect. He'll still get a nice return, but it's not going to be a kings ransom.

Yes, the guy put up 92 points, but 42 were on the PP with Crosby AND Malkin, and he played a large chunk of the season, EV on Malkin's wing. Kessel is a fantastic player, but if you think he's driving the play more than a Malkin or Crosby, you're dreaming. His stats are INFLATED. Think of it like this, and this is a much more exaggerated example, would you pay top dollar for 2005-06 Cheechoo? He put up 50 something goals, 90 something points. No way, cause everyone knows the reason for his success was his center.
Except that's f***ing ridiculous because Kessel has produced like this or close to it his entire career regardless of WHO his center was even when it was Tyler Freaking Bozak. No, he didn't play on Malkin's wing for a chunk of the season he mainly played on the 3rd line because of Sullivan. "Crosby\Malkin" factor is a ridiculous claim when it comes to Kessel, he can create his own offense. (it doesn't matter if if was on the pp, Crosby puts up a fair amount of PP points does that make him not as good?)
 

CanadianPensFan1

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Except that's ****ing ridiculous because Kessel has produced like this or close to it his entire career regardless of WHO his center was even when it was Tyler Freaking Bozak. No, he didn't play on Malkin's wing for a chunk of the season he mainly played on the 3rd line because of Sullivan. "Crosby\Malkin" factor is a ridiculous claim when it comes to Kessel, he can create his own offense. (it doesn't matter if if was on the pp, Crosby puts up a fair amount of PP points does that make him not as good?)

Which is even more amusing since the biggest reason that his name is out there is that he was frustrated he wasn't playing with Malkin. Yet .. he mostly played with Malkin to pad his stats. Derp.
 
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greasysnapper

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The Pens scored more with Kessel pairing with one of Sheahan and Brassard than they did with Malkin this season. Haven't worked out whether that's reflected in his personal stats, but if you compare his ES stats with his ES stats from his days in Toronto and, unless you think he's declined drastically, there's nothing suspicious or surprising about Kessel putting up 50 ES points without a superstar's help. Being with Malkin/Crosby/Hornqvist is probably inflating his PP stats, but Kessel was also a hugely important part of that unit.

He's likely a ~80 point winger at any half-decent team on the NHL; he doesn't need Sid and Geno for that.

That's a lie.

Kessel with Malkin EV - Pittsburgh had 26 GF
Kessel with Sheahan EV - Pittsburgh had 15 GF
Kessel with Brassard EV - Pittsburgh had 5 GF

Perhaps you want to actually look at the stats as you said. The team was scoring more with Malkin and Kessel together than him with Sheahan AND Brassard.

And I specifically said age is another factor. When he put up 50 ES points those 2 seasons he was what ~24-26?

"Being with Malkin/Crosby/Hornqvist is probably inflating his PP stats"

Yep, I agree. And that's what I said.

"but Kessel was also a hugely important part of that unit."

I also agree, I think he's a good fit here and it's a system his skillsets mesh with. As I said I don't think he's right for every system.
 

CanadianPensFan1

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Nowhere as in they're still stanley cup contenders

Ok. Just making sure :) the way it read was that the pens were going nowhere as in they suck.

For whatever it's worth.. I'm sure the pens brass doesn't WANT to get of Kessel. But if he is unhappy with his role / is at odds with the coach ...

I mean you talk to the guy. Try to find a common ground. Sully is stubborn. Kessel seems stubborn so that may not be easy. Bit other than that... what else are they supposed to do?

To throw my hat in on those thread... I don't think the pens will get a kings ransom. But they won't accept an underwhelming return either.

- kessel was putting up big numbers well before sid and Geno so using that as a con is bullshit
- he's 31 and signed for 4 more years bringing him to 35. Let's not pretend that he's gonna fall off a cliff tomorrow. He also plays a passive game and, in his last 8 seasons, has played 82 games in 7 of them
- he just had 92 points
- 2 monster playoff runs

- he's a moody teenager


There are far more pros to kessel than cons. Anyone saying otherwise is ridiculous.
 

Peat

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That's a lie.

Kessel with Malkin EV - Pittsburgh had 26 GF
Kessel with Sheahan EV - Pittsburgh had 15 GF
Kessel with Brassard EV - Pittsburgh had 5 GF

Perhaps you want to actually look at the stats as you said. The team was scoring more with Malkin and Kessel together than him with Sheahan AND Brassard.

And I specifically said age is another factor. When he put up 50 ES points those 2 seasons he was what ~24-26?

"Being with Malkin/Crosby/Hornqvist is probably inflating his PP stats"

Yep, I agree. And that's what I said.

"but Kessel was also a hugely important part of that unit."

I also agree, I think he's a good fit here and it's a system his skillsets mesh with. As I said I don't think he's right for every system.

Work it out per 60. He was productive with Brassard and Sheahan combined, then Sheahan, then Brassard, then Malkin.
 

BrettM

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I'm wondering if we see Phil Kessel get jetisonned to Buffalo with Sam Reinhart as part of the return.
 

Empoleon8771

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I'm wondering if we see Phil Kessel get jetisonned to Buffalo with Sam Reinhart as part of the return.

I can't see Kessel saying yes to being traded to Buffalo, and Buffalo is pretty awful in terms of enticing assets for Kessel. They can have Sheary, but that's about all they have the assets for IMO.
 

MagicalRazor

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Kessel just put up 92 points and is like 0.90+ PPG in play offs over his play off career with a salary of less than E Kane . 1 they don't have to retain and 2 if they did he would commend alot . who ever thinks a player coming off a 90 point season with 2 cups in years 3 isn't gonna fetch you a high demand is roasted
 

greasysnapper

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Work it out per 60. He was productive with Brassard and Sheahan combined, then Sheahan, then Brassard, then Malkin.

LWL has Kessel Sheahan and Brassard as a COMBINED GF of a measly 2. Sure seems like a productive line.

The stats show he had more of an impact helping the Pens score EV when he played alongside Malkin than anyone else.
 

Riptide

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When the Leafs traded Kessel to Pittsburgh they retained $1.2 million of his contract and it was not an overpayment in terms of value.

I agree completely. However, when Toronto traded Kessel to Pittsburgh the following were all things that were part of the picture:

Negating Kessel's value (then as a Maple Leaf):
- 8 team NTC list that effectively limited Toronto to Pittsburgh.
- Kessel was seen as someone a team couldn't win with. Now he's someone who was instrumental in the first back to back champions in the cap era.
- 8m cap hit at a 71.4m cap. Now it's 6.8m at a ~80m limit. 11.2% vs ~8.5%.
- He was also owed 54m. Now he's only owed 26m. Doesn't seem like much, but there's a lot less risk there for GMs/Owners who have to write the checks. Fans only care about the cap hits... but most teams really do care about the actual dollars and cents.

Pros:
- He was younger. He had just turned 28 when he played his first game as a Penguin. He will be 31 in Oct.
- He was faster 3 years ago. I don't think that's decreased by a ton, but it's still there.

Still issues/concerns:
- NTC still limits him to 8 teams. This however is slightly negated by the fact that he's now seen as a "winner" vs someone you can't/don't win with. The higher cap, lower cap hit and the fact that PIT will likely want a "win now" type of player back should remove most of the cap issues from the equation.
- Kessel's attitude/moodyness, or coach killer (not sure I like the term of the latter, but you get the picture). This is clearly still an "issue/concern", as it would be one of the main reasons why Pittsburgh would even be considering trading him.

Bottom line, I think Pittsburgh could easily fetch the same return that they gave up (value wise) if they were willing to accept futures. However I think they would be after much more proven players as a key part of the return if they were moving Kessel, so the value from what they get vs what they gave up will probably be a little harder to judge, but I think at the end of the day, a bad Kessel deal will see them getting back something comparable to what they gave up.
 

Riptide

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LWL has Kessel Sheahan and Brassard as a COMBINED GF of a measly 2. Sure seems like a productive line.

The stats show he had more of an impact helping the Pens score EV when he played alongside Malkin than anyone else.

Care to post a link to that... because every other number I've seen for Brassard and Sheahan was significantly higher then that.
 

Peat

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Care to post a link to that... because every other number I've seen for Brassard and Sheahan was significantly higher then that.

That is the correct number for all three as a line.

LWL has Kessel Sheahan and Brassard as a COMBINED GF of a measly 2. Sure seems like a productive line.

The stats show he had more of an impact helping the Pens score EV when he played alongside Malkin than anyone else.

As I said -

Work it out per 60. I am talking about goals per 60.
 

greasysnapper

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That is the correct number for all three as a line.



As I said -

Work it out per 60. I am talking about goals per 60.

Right after you mow my lawn bud. I don't have time to figure out your stats for you lol. If you want to prove to me that's a factor, compile it or find it. It would be an interesting point of research to say the least.
 

Riptide

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The stats show he had more of an impact helping the Pens score EV when he played alongside Malkin than anyone else.

Really? You sure about that? Because that's not what the stats actually show.

Kessel and Brassard together are 6GF, 5GA in 111:58 minutes. GF/60 of 3.21
Kessel and Crosby together are 5GF, 5GA in 89:07 minutes. GF/60 of 3.37
Kessel and Malkin together are 26GF, 28GA in 562:31 minutes. GF/60 of 2.77
Kessel and Sheahan together are 15GF, 14GA in 252:31 minutes. GF/60 of 3.56

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick
 

Peat

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Right after you mow my lawn bud. I don't have time to figure out your stats for you lol. If you want to prove to me that's a factor, compile it or find it. It would be an interesting point of research to say the least.

Oh I already know - there's a reason I stated it as a fact to begin with. Just figured if you were already looking at the numbers, you'd find it quickly enough yourself and would trust seeing it yourself more than me. Apologies for being short with you, quite unnecessary.

Anyhoo, Riptide's posted them up. I'd add that the GF/60 of Kessel/Malkin is very similar for their 1st season together and as an average over the past three seasons, its below Kessel/Non-Malkin/Crosby; and that Kessel and Crosby had a great GF/60 this season, but its the first time its been non-crap. The Pens have not seen a notable hit from pairing Kessel up with non-elite players at 5v5 - I doubt other teams would either.

If anything, I think building a line around Kessel would get more out of him, and other teams can put better players around him as part of that process.

Just on the age thing - yeah, he was younger (25-27) but then I'm not expecting him to net 60 ES points a season like he did there. 50 points is already a 12% decline, I don't think more than that should be expected at his current age.
 

justafan22

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- Kessel's attitude/moodyness, or coach killer (not sure I like the term of the latter, but you get the picture). This is clearly still an "issue/concern", as it would be one of the main reasons why Pittsburgh would even be considering trading him.

I like the guy, but it's been enough teams now that maybe he has a shelf life with a coaching staff.
 

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