Could Albuquerque support a big 5 sports team?

Could Albuquerque support a big 5 sports team?


  • Total voters
    22

MMC

Global Moderator
May 11, 2014
47,803
38,362
Orange County, CA
I plan on making a series of threads/polls about markets that don’t currently have a
Big 5 team to see if other people think it could be a possibility. I’ll make one every week or so or whenever the threads lose interest. I’m starting with Albuquerque. Do you think they could support a team in the MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, or MLS team?
 

KevFu

Registered User
May 22, 2009
9,007
3,239
Phoenix from Rochester via New Orleans
I plan on making a series of threads/polls about markets that don’t currently have a
Big 5 team to see if other people think it could be a possibility. I’ll make one every week or so or whenever the threads lose interest. I’m starting with Albuquerque. Do you think they could support a team in the MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, or MLS team?

MLS is in a totally different group than the other four. The average MLS payroll is about $10 million. Without knowing anything about soccer in that market, I'd say "Could a metro area of 918,018 people generate $17 million in revenue? Probably."

But knowing a lil bit about New Mexico United? Definitely.

It's a tough sell on the other four. But MLS absolutely.
 
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Barclay Donaldson

Registered User
Feb 4, 2018
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I plan on making a series of threads/polls about markets that don’t currently have a
Big 5 team to see if other people think it could be a possibility. I’ll make one every week or so or whenever the threads lose interest. I’m starting with Albuquerque. Do you think they could support a team in the MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, or MLS team?

There is fewer than a million people in the metro Albuquerque area. That is smaller than the metro areas for Omaha, Grand Rapids, Bakersfield, Bridgeport, Honolulu, and Tucson. And a huge portion of the population is well below the poverty line.... soooo what the heck do you think the answer is?

Albuquerque is about as suitable for a Big 5 sports league as Oxnard and Albany. And seriously, these threads got old a long time ago. Starting threads just to start threads isn't necessary.
 

MMC

Global Moderator
May 11, 2014
47,803
38,362
Orange County, CA
soooo what the heck do you think the answer is?
I don't know the answer that's why I wanted to make a thread about it. This board is full of posters that are much more knowledgeable than I am on what would make a successful pro sports market, so I thought it would be fun to hear their insight.

Starting threads just to start threads isn't necessary.
I'm not starting it just to start a thread, I'm starting it because it's an interesting conversation to me. If it doesn't interest you, you don't have to participate...
 

Barclay Donaldson

Registered User
Feb 4, 2018
2,531
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Tatooine
I don't know the answer that's why I wanted to make a thread about it. This board is full of posters that are much more knowledgeable than I am on what would make a successful pro sports market, so I thought it would be fun to hear their insight.

There's not nearly enough people, corporate support, or market interest in Albuquerque to get a Big 5 sports team. That isn't called insight. That is called being obvious.

I'm not starting it just to start a thread, I'm starting it because it's an interesting conversation to me. If it doesn't interest you, you don't have to participate...

Typically try doing 30 second of Google research. You'll find most of these things, like this, San Antonio in the NHL, and the rest, are answered well within that timeline. And these are the types of threads where people say they think the NHL is going to Halifax and ridiculous places like that. That stupidity spreads quickly. Better to stamp it out, the harsher the better.
 

HisIceness

This is Hurricanes Hockey
Sep 16, 2010
40,108
70,026
Charlotte
I voted no. Although I suppose you could make an argument for MLS as KevFu did, MLS is at 30 teams and there's bigger markets like Phoenix, San Diego, and Las Vegas that have a better shot for teams 31 and 32. It would seem to me that ABQ would not be high on the radar unless the right owner stepped up to the plate.

Everything else though, I think is a solid no. Albuquerque isn't very big, its metro population is below a million and also below MSAs like Bridgeport, Omaha, and Tulsa among others. There doesn't appear to be a lot of corporate support for a franchise, the two largest employers according to Wikipedia are the Air Force base and the University of New Mexico. As such, wealth is not as aplenty in bigger markets. I googled "New Mexico billionaires" and got the Maloof brothers as the state's richest resident, which is interesting because I wasn't aware they resided there since they are based out of Las Vegas and are minority owners of the Knights. After them is a gentleman named Mack Chase, valued at $900 million. So not really a potential owner here unless someone from Texas or California wanted to get involved.

Interestingly in their favor however, their TV market ranking is higher than markets like Memphis, Buffalo, and Louisville, and only a few ticks below OKC and Jacksonville. There's also the factor that they would have a pretty big geographical state to themselves, albeit sparsely populated. But ultimately I don't think there's enough here to make it work, and I doubt the market is high on the "radar".

I said this in another thread. I think if there's one "untapped" market left in the USA, that market would be Louisville (Austin got their MLS franchise). Everything after Louisville is going to be a very hard sell for the BoG's regardless of what league they represent.
 

ponder719

Haute Couturier
Jul 2, 2013
6,414
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Philadelphia, PA
I voted yes, but it's a highly qualified yes. If MLS remains a closed entity, then I expect Albuquerque to be on the outside looking in. If, as people bandy about from time to time, US Soccer moves to a pro-rel system, then I could see New Mexico United surviving as an MLS team should they win promotion. They'd be one of the smaller clubs, naturally, but I think in those circumstances they could survive.
 
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MMC

Global Moderator
May 11, 2014
47,803
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Orange County, CA
I voted no. Although I suppose you could make an argument for MLS as KevFu did, MLS is at 30 teams and there's bigger markets like Phoenix, San Diego, and Las Vegas that have a better shot for teams 31 and 32. It would seem to me that ABQ would not be high on the radar unless the right owner stepped up to the plate.

Everything else though, I think is a solid no. Albuquerque isn't very big, its metro population is below a million and also below MSAs like Bridgeport, Omaha, and Tulsa among others. There doesn't appear to be a lot of corporate support for a franchise, the two largest employers according to Wikipedia are the Air Force base and the University of New Mexico. As such, wealth is not as aplenty in bigger markets. I googled "New Mexico billionaires" and got the Maloof brothers as the state's richest resident, which is interesting because I wasn't aware they resided there since they are based out of Las Vegas and are minority owners of the Knights. After them is a gentleman named Mack Chase, valued at $900 million. So not really a potential owner here unless someone from Texas or California wanted to get involved.

Interestingly in their favor however, their TV market ranking is higher than markets like Memphis, Buffalo, and Louisville, and only a few ticks below OKC and Jacksonville. There's also the factor that they would have a pretty big geographical state to themselves, albeit sparsely populated. But ultimately I don't think there's enough here to make it work, and I doubt the market is high on the "radar".

I said this in another thread. I think if there's one "untapped" market left in the USA, that market would be Louisville (Austin got their MLS franchise). Everything after Louisville is going to be a very hard sell for the BoG's regardless of what league they represent.
Thank you for taking the time to write this out, very informative and gave me a better idea of what to consider in terms of what all it takes for a city to support a major sports team.
 
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Primary Assist

The taste of honey is worse than none at all
Jul 7, 2010
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OP, I think this is a totally valid question and would also like to point out that the negative comments on this thread are in themselves distracting and of particularly low-effort.

Two things that have not yet been mentioned might help you in determining the viability of Albuquerque as a metropolitan division: Minor league popularity and public/private partnerships in sports infrastructure funding.

The Isotopes are the 16th most valuable minor league baseball team in the country, which really isn't too bad. When you account for the fact that the Rockies aren't a particularly valuable MLB team then this seems to highlight Albuquerque's attractiveness as a market. Ultimately though, it seems like the market is just OK and not really a location that financiers will see as particularly lucrative. This will definitely stifle any putative benefits of my next point, the private/public partnerships.

There is an abundance of information out there that the payback for a municipality to sponsor a private stadium and its infrastructure is severely lacking. Bluntly, it's a horrible investment. It would cost several hundred million dollars in fixed costs for the taxpayers and the Albuquerque metro division just does't seem to have the tourism industry or other potential synergies to justify public investment.

All of this being said, I think baseball MIGHT be viable as an option. MLB teams make most of their revenues from local TV contracts, and New Mexico is an under-served market with a decent population size. Local sponsors from all over the state would have to justify this contract, and I'm just not familiar enough with New Mexico industry to determine whether or not there might be a potential for big marketing and advertising dollars. It seems like this would be a long-shot.

So ultimately, at this time I would say Albuquerque is certainly not an ideal location for a major professional team, and the opportunity costs of foregoing an entrance into other markets are just too substantial to justify a team in New Mexico.
 

DaveG

Noted Jerk
Apr 7, 2003
51,016
47,853
Winston-Salem NC
MLS is a yes... but the problem is there's others on the list of potential MLS cities that are interested that would likely get the nod before them (Indy, Detroit, Vegas, and possibly Phoenix, San Diego, and Raleigh).

The other 4 sports? absolutely not, the city just doesn't have the financial base to pull it off.
 

IU Hawks fan

They call me IU
Dec 30, 2008
28,516
2,813
NW Burbs
I don't consider MLS to be a "Big League".

I agree with others that financially it could support that, but won't get the chance. Maybe if the league expands into the 40s.

As for the "Big 4", absolutely no chance.
 
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HisIceness

This is Hurricanes Hockey
Sep 16, 2010
40,108
70,026
Charlotte
Thank you for taking the time to write this out, very informative and gave me a better idea of what to consider in terms of what all it takes for a city to support a major sports team.

You bet! Regardless of what others say, I enjoy these topics. You could say I'm kind of a nerd for them :)

For the record, Albuquerque is an interesting city and NM is an interesting state if you've never been. ABQ has the Sandia Peak Tramway which gives a really cool view of the city and the surrounding area, the food is top notch (some of the best BBQ I've ever had was at a place called Sugars near Espanola), and the national parks are awesome. I went in the summer of 2006 for my churchs high school mission trip and it's one of my favorite trips ever, vacation or not. I even met a former Hockey player and coach while on one of our mission sites (he noticed my Canes champ swag). But major league sports I just don't think are in their near future.
 
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KevFu

Registered User
May 22, 2009
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Phoenix from Rochester via New Orleans
I voted yes, but it's a highly qualified yes. If MLS remains a closed entity, then I expect Albuquerque to be on the outside looking in. If, as people bandy about from time to time, US Soccer moves to a pro-rel system, then I could see New Mexico United surviving as an MLS team should they win promotion. They'd be one of the smaller clubs, naturally, but I think in those circumstances they could survive.

I still think MLS could/should have stopped expanding at 18 teams, but established MLS-2, built it up to 24 teams over 15 to 20 years, and then expanded MLS via promotion from MLS-2.

OR, they could just keep expanding to 72 teams and have four 18-team Conferences that only play conference games until the playoffs. Treat it each region like a domestic league, with the playoffs being continental. Essentially, like the European model, only with the playoffs at the end of the calendar year instead of during the next season.
 
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AKL

Danila Yurov Fan Club President
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Dec 10, 2012
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I don't think they would be at the top for attendance, but when you consider some of the markets that do have a big 5 sports team, I don't see why Albuquerque couldn't support an NBA team for example. The metro population is nearly 1M, which isn't that far off places like Memphis or Oklahoma City, or Raleigh in the NHL for that matter. I'd be hard pressed to believe they could pull 60, 70 thousand for an NFL team regularly, but 16, 17 for the NBA is plausible.
 

garbageteam

Registered User
Jan 7, 2010
1,403
641
Resounding no, for every league, even including MLS. The Big 4 doesn't need any explanation, and MLS is increasingly upping its payrolls year on year. The smallest market cities in the league like Kansas, Salt Lake City and Columbus would not be considered in the 2020s (though they are honestly better run than some of the bigger league teams). These are going to be legacy cities kept around because they've been with the league since the early days.
 

JianYang

Registered User
Sep 29, 2017
17,753
16,114
MLS is in a totally different group than the other four. The average MLS payroll is about $10 million. Without knowing anything about soccer in that market, I'd say "Could a metro area of 918,018 people generate $17 million in revenue? Probably."

But knowing a lil bit about New Mexico United? Definitely.

It's a tough sell on the other four. But MLS absolutely.

I have this perception that MLS payrolls, while smaller, are rising pretty quickly over the years.

The commissioner has criticized the Vancouver whitecaps for not spending more money on players in recent times. I think the mls might be trending to a space where expansion into smaller, non traditional markets might not be the best plan either.
 

KevFu

Registered User
May 22, 2009
9,007
3,239
Phoenix from Rochester via New Orleans
I would agree that they are trending upward, but the cost of being the 7th best league in the world is always going to remain behind the cost of being the best league in the world, which MLB, NFL, NBA and NHL are; and MLS never will be.
 

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