OT: Coronavirus XXXV: Y'all Got Any More of Them Vaccines?

[Stoneman89]

so the "Christmas bump" hasn't occurred
I guess we will see if the New Year's bump did

Followed by "the school bump".

 

[Stoneman89]

Calling Car HK47? Where are you?

 

[Oilhawks]

Calling Car HK47? Where are you?

Probably somewhere doing something like this

 

[BlueCheeseWithWings]

Calling Car HK47? Where are you?

What is the context?

I love inside jokes. I'd love to be a part of one someday. - Michael Gary Scott

 

[Stoneman89]

What is the context?

I love inside jokes. I'd love to be a part of one someday. - Michael Gary Scott

 

[bellagiobob]

A thread by Dr. Deena Hinshaw

Here is a summary of today’s #COVID19AB update:

AHS has been working hard to expand contact tracing capacity & are now reaching out within 24hrs to all high-priority cases incl school-aged children, healthcare/critical response & long-term care workers. (1/6)

With more contact tracers & fewer cases we’re reducing the # of cases w/unknown exposure. About 47% of active cases have an unknown source – down from about 80% Dec. 10-15. We’re making progress & continue to build capacity. (2/6)

Over the last 24 hours, we have identified 652 new cases of COVID-19 & completed about 9.3K tests. Our positivity rate is at 6.8%. 819 ppl are in hospital, incl 132 in ICU. (3/6)

Sadly, 38 new deaths were reported in the last 24 hrs. Remember these are not just numbers, but lives. Every death involved someone who loved and was loved by many. My thoughts go to everyone mourning the loss a loved one from any cause. (4/6)

Thank you to the frontline health care workers signing up ASAP to receive the vaccine. You have done remarkable work for months, often putting your own health and well-being at risk. Getting immunized will help protect you as well as patients. (5/6)

Thank you to ABs for being patient. As we get a clearer picture on the number of vaccines available, we will continue expanding our approach. We must all continue to make good choices & follow public health measures to keep reducing the spread of COVID-19. (6/6)

 

[nabob]

Please feel free to tell me if what I’m saying make no sense. Just a thought I had and lots of them make more sense in my head than they do on paper.

so even though positive case numbers are significantly reduced the last 3 weeks or so compared to the three weeks before them we are still seeing the same (relatively) number of people in the hospital and ICU with Covid. This tells me that the very strict restrictions put in place are doing nothing to take the strain off of the healthcare system or preventing any deaths from Covid. We all know by now that harsh restriction have a lot of “collateral damage” effects on the rest of society ranging from suicide increases, drug over dose increases, poverty, families breaking up, and loads of mental health problems. If the restrictions that are in place aren’t doing anything to take the stress off the healthcare system and aren’t preventing Covid deaths...are they worth it? Are they working? Or are they actually causing more problems than they are solving? Are the decisions being made actually weighing the positives vs the negatives and striving for the best possible outcomes for Albertans? Would the previous restrictions that were put in place and only given 10 days have sufficed to allow us to be at the same place we’re at right now with regards to hospital and ICU numbers?

 

[AM]

Followed by "the school bump".

The bump, bump, bump might be deus ex machina

 

[bellagiobob]

Please feel free to tell me if what I’m saying make no sense. Just a thought I had and lots of them make more sense in my head than they do on paper.

so even though positive case numbers are significantly reduced the last 3 weeks or so compared to the three weeks before them we are still seeing the same (relatively) number of people in the hospital and ICU with Covid. This tells me that the very strict restrictions put in place are doing nothing to take the strain off of the healthcare system or preventing any deaths from Covid. We all know by now that harsh restriction have a lot of “collateral damage” effects on the rest of society ranging from suicide increases, drug over dose increases, poverty, families breaking up, and loads of mental health problems. If the restrictions that are in place aren’t doing anything to take the stress off the healthcare system and aren’t preventing Covid deaths...are they worth it? Are they working? Or are they actually causing more problems than they are solving? Are the decisions being made actually weighing the positives vs the negatives and striving for the best possible outcomes for Albertans? Would the previous restrictions that were put in place and only given 10 days have sufficed to allow us to be at the same place we’re at right now with regards to hospital and ICU numbers?

All fair questions. It is frustrating seeing hospital numbers not decreasing more rapidly, but we have around 150 less people in hospital now than we did at the peak, and the peak was only 2 weeks ago, so think a little more patience is required. Rate of new hospitalizations continues to decrease daily, now down to 10/M, so about 43 new hospitalizations a day. Not sure the average stay, but even if you estimate it is 14 days, which seems high, that would be around 600 hospitaizations expected at some time in the next few weeks if daily numbers stay the same. I think it's just getting thru some of the people that have been in hospital awhile, and I suspect/hope that a good whack of them will be released soon, and numbers will continue to decrease.

 

[ghostnights]

I’m wondering if tests and numbers are low because people gathered over the holidays and are ashamed to get tested .

 

[Spawn]

Please feel free to tell me if what I’m saying make no sense. Just a thought I had and lots of them make more sense in my head than they do on paper.

so even though positive case numbers are significantly reduced the last 3 weeks or so compared to the three weeks before them we are still seeing the same (relatively) number of people in the hospital and ICU with Covid. This tells me that the very strict restrictions put in place are doing nothing to take the strain off of the healthcare system or preventing any deaths from Covid. We all know by now that harsh restriction have a lot of “collateral damage” effects on the rest of society ranging from suicide increases, drug over dose increases, poverty, families breaking up, and loads of mental health problems. If the restrictions that are in place aren’t doing anything to take the stress off the healthcare system and aren’t preventing Covid deaths...are they worth it? Are they working? Or are they actually causing more problems than they are solving? Are the decisions being made actually weighing the positives vs the negatives and striving for the best possible outcomes for Albertans? Would the previous restrictions that were put in place and only given 10 days have sufficed to allow us to be at the same place we’re at right now with regards to hospital and ICU numbers?

Hospitalizations were climbing at a near exponential rate until late December. They have since peaked and are slowly beginning to decline. The restrictions saved our healthcare system from collapse.

I also take massive issue with your assertion that "collateral damage" is solely due to lockdowns, and not largely due to the fact that we've got a once in century pandemic ravaging the planet killing millions of people around the globe.

My own personal experience during this pandemic: My mental health has been a disaster the past ~year since this began. It has been very severe and very frightening for me at times. It is not due to lockdowns. It is due to the pandemic. Pretending like none of these issues would exist without lockdowns is ignorant and offensive. I can tell you unequivocally that my mental health would have been significantly worse than it already has been without restrictions being put in place.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Please feel free to tell me if what I’m saying make no sense. Just a thought I had and lots of them make more sense in my head than they do on paper.

so even though positive case numbers are significantly reduced the last 3 weeks or so compared to the three weeks before them we are still seeing the same (relatively) number of people in the hospital and ICU with Covid. This tells me that the very strict restrictions put in place are doing nothing to take the strain off of the healthcare system or preventing any deaths from Covid. We all know by now that harsh restriction have a lot of “collateral damage” effects on the rest of society ranging from suicide increases, drug over dose increases, poverty, families breaking up, and loads of mental health problems. If the restrictions that are in place aren’t doing anything to take the stress off the healthcare system and aren’t preventing Covid deaths...are they worth it? Are they working? Or are they actually causing more problems than they are solving? Are the decisions being made actually weighing the positives vs the negatives and striving for the best possible outcomes for Albertans? Would the previous restrictions that were put in place and only given 10 days have sufficed to allow us to be at the same place we’re at right now with regards to hospital and ICU numbers?

Hospitalizations lag behind cases. The rate it was climbing was very bad and it's dropping instead of climbing which is proof that it's working

COVID-19 Alberta statistics

Click the link, interactive app, hospitalizations. Shows charts showing the numbers and rates dropping pretty well recently.

 

[bellagiobob]

Hospitalizations were climbing at a near exponential rate until late December. They have since peaked and are slowly beginning to decline. The restrictions saved our healthcare system from collapse.

I also take massive issue with your assertion that "collateral damage" is solely due to lockdowns, and not largely due to the fact that we've got a once in century pandemic ravaging the planet killing millions of people around the globe.

My own personal experience during this pandemic: My mental health has been a disaster the past ~year since this began. It has been very severe and very frightening for me at times. It is not due to lockdowns. It is due to the pandemic. Pretending like none of these issues would exist without lockdowns is ignorant and offensive. I can tell you unequivocally that my mental health would be been significantly worse than it already has been without restrictions being put in place.

Sorry to hear of your mental health issues. You are definitely not alone in that regard, as this has been a very stressful year for everyone. Some due to the virus, some due to the restrictions imposed, etc. Wishing you better mental health in the days ahead.

 

[Spawn]

Sorry to hear of your mental health issues. You are definitely not alone in that regard, as this has been a very stressful year for everyone. Some due to the virus, some due the restrictions imposed, etc. Wishing you better mental health in the days ahead.

I appreciate it.

And maybe I should clarify that I don't for a second think there aren't repercussions to lockdowns. I know the cost is high for some. It just drives my insane thinking that people try and pin everything on lockdowns ignoring the very real pandemic and what it is doing to all of us.

 

[nabob]

Hospitalizations were climbing at a near exponential rate until late December. They have since peaked and are slowly beginning to decline. The restrictions saved our healthcare system from collapse.

I also take massive issue with your assertion that "collateral damage" is solely due to lockdowns, and not largely due to the fact that we've got a once in century pandemic ravaging the planet killing millions of people around the globe.

My own personal experience during this pandemic: My mental health has been a disaster the past ~year since this began. It has been very severe and very frightening for me at times. It is not due to lockdowns. It is due to the pandemic. Pretending like none of these issues would exist without lockdowns is ignorant and offensive. I can tell you unequivocally that my mental health would have been significantly worse than it already has been without restrictions being put in place.

I didn’t claim those were solely due to lockdowns. Just stating that lockdowns make those issues worse. Sorry if you misinterpreted what I was saying. I agree the pandemic itself and the panic surrounding it have caused those issues for many.

“We all know by now that harsh restriction have a lot of “collateral damage” effects on the rest of society ranging from suicide increases, drug over dose increases, poverty, families breaking up, and loads of mental health problems.”

This was my statement and I think it’s a very fair one. No where do I say lockdowns are the only cause of these problems. No where do I say that if there were no lockdowns we wouldn’t have some of these issues still. I think you took my post out of context due to your own feelings on the issues. Sorry if I offended you, and I’m sorry to hear how hard the pandemic has been on your mental health. Hope that with vaccines and falling cases in general it can improve and we can put the worst of COVID-19 behind us and move forward.

 

[nabob]

Hospitalizations lag behind cases. The rate it was climbing was very bad and it's dropping instead of climbing which is proof that it's working

COVID-19 Alberta statistics

Click the link, interactive app, hospitalizations. Shows charts showing the numbers and rates dropping pretty well recently.

Thanks! Guess I’m not really considering that enough. I just keep hearing on the news that hospitalization numbers and icu numbers remain constant and it’s discouraging.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Please feel free to tell me if what I’m saying make no sense. Just a thought I had and lots of them make more sense in my head than they do on paper.

so even though positive case numbers are significantly reduced the last 3 weeks or so compared to the three weeks before them we are still seeing the same (relatively) number of people in the hospital and ICU with Covid. This tells me that the very strict restrictions put in place are doing nothing to take the strain off of the healthcare system or preventing any deaths from Covid. We all know by now that harsh restriction have a lot of “collateral damage” effects on the rest of society ranging from suicide increases, drug over dose increases, poverty, families breaking up, and loads of mental health problems. If the restrictions that are in place aren’t doing anything to take the stress off the healthcare system and aren’t preventing Covid deaths...are they worth it? Are they working? Or are they actually causing more problems than they are solving? Are the decisions being made actually weighing the positives vs the negatives and striving for the best possible outcomes for Albertans? Would the previous restrictions that were put in place and only given 10 days have sufficed to allow us to be at the same place we’re at right now with regards to hospital and ICU numbers?

I suspect its hospitals doing what they often do, in that once patients are in for awhile and have rooms they tend to be overserviced vs those waiting for rooms or never getting rooms. They really aren't turning over patients as efficiently as one would expect here and most jurisdictions are doing better. A lack of using pharmacological treatments some of which are either not approved here or not available much here is part of a problem. But its that problem that always plagues public health hospitals in that it seems there no end of treatment for those that are already connected with the DR's and nurses and this type of thing creates backlogs whether there is a pandemic or not. Hospitals play favorites with patients and like to see some through to complete health while many others are given the bums rush. My take would be a tendency to keep patients too long in hospital wards is continuing unabated. While the hospitals continually cry about not enough space.

Heres the standard problem. In a public health model there is no incentive to move patients out, and the patients are falsely reassured to remain as well. The patients aren't paying for their care. Whereas in private care everything from patients, to insurers, coverage, staff, they want patients out as soon as they are treated. Public health models are innately inefficient models.

Theres no way the hospital or ICU numbers should still be this high in what has been 3 weeks of drastically reduced new case infections. Many of the cases in hospitals ought to have been resolved by now. Or at least enough to be removed from hospital and assigned home care visits or followup.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Thanks! Guess I’m not really considering that enough. I just keep hearing on the news that hospitalization numbers and icu numbers remain constant and it’s discouraging.

The numbers staying constant is better than them constantly increasing. They were constant for a while as the people recovering and new ones were on par, now more are recovering than new hospitalizations so it starts to drop. Remember that it can take up to 2 weeks to start showing symptoms and usually they don't get bad enough to hospitalize you for at least a bit after that.

I've learned that looking at the raw numbers feels much more depressing but when you look at the graphs with the rates, gives you a truly outlook on how it's going.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Hospitalizations lag behind cases. The rate it was climbing was very bad and it's dropping instead of climbing which is proof that it's working

COVID-19 Alberta statistics

Click the link, interactive app, hospitalizations. Shows charts showing the numbers and rates dropping pretty well recently.

They shouldn't be lagging a month behind. The Hospital numbers and ICU have dropped very little. Keep in mind a lot of cases have resolved to death as well. We've had inordinate deaths even while the lag of hospital and ICU is pronounced. As if nobody thats seeing hospitals is getting better very quick. What this even suggests to me, and this has been the case with hospital envrironments the world over, is that patients are getting extra doses of Covid while in hospital, due to things like less than ideal air circulation, filtration, contacts with various patients. etc.

In short the last place I would want to be if I contracted Covid and got ill would be a hospital. I would rather be in a much more distanced and prescribed setup of a field hospital.
Hospitals are not great at reducing containing spread of infectious disease. So it seems incredibly ironic to be putting patients there.

Tons of reports as well that Covid patients have been contracting secondary complication conditions while in hospitals. This is why for instance intubation is far less commonly used right now. It was simply introducting any nature of infection to the patient, from the hospital, in addition to damaging lungs, respiratory system.

Heres the thing we don't even know. How many patients in hospitals have been there for other reasons but are contracting Covid while in the hospitals. I would assume some of this is occurring. We need more facilities, field hospitals, or isolated quarters where people are getting care away from huge numbers of others who are also covid sick.

Studies in Italy already told us this. Get the Covid patients OUT of hospitals.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Hospitalizations were climbing at a near exponential rate until late December. They have since peaked and are slowly beginning to decline. The restrictions saved our healthcare system from collapse.

I also take massive issue with your assertion that "collateral damage" is solely due to lockdowns, and not largely due to the fact that we've got a once in century pandemic ravaging the planet killing millions of people around the globe.

My own personal experience during this pandemic: My mental health has been a disaster the past ~year since this began. It has been very severe and very frightening for me at times. It is not due to lockdowns. It is due to the pandemic. Pretending like none of these issues would exist without lockdowns is ignorant and offensive. I can tell you unequivocally that my mental health would have been significantly worse than it already has been without restrictions being put in place.

either you're working throughout this pandemic or you can live on EI no problem

but I can you my brother hasn't worked since March and his mental health is in shambles due to lack of money...he'd gladly "risk" getting the virus by working if it meant providing for his family

 

[CycloneSweep]

I suspect its hospitals doing what they often do, in that once patients are in for awhile and have rooms they tend to be overserviced vs those waiting for rooms or never getting rooms. They really aren't turning over patients as efficiently as one would expect here and most jurisdictions are doing better. A lack of using pharmacological treatments some of which are either not approved here or not available much here is part of a problem. But its that problem that always plagues public health hospitals in that it seems there no end of treatment for those that are already connected with the DR's and nurses and this type of thing creates backlogs whether there is a pandemic or not. Hospitals play favorites with patients and like to see some through to complete health while many others are given the bums rush. My take would be a tendency to keep patients too long in hospital wards is continuing unabated. While the hospitals continually cry about not enough space.

Theres no way the hospital or ICU numbers should still be this high in what has been 3 weeks of drastically reduced new case infections. Many of the cases in hospitals ought to have been resolved by now. Or at least enough to be removed from hospital and assigned home care visits or followup.

That is true, although the one thing to look at is not ever case is the same and it already being flu season etc part of me wonders if the time of year is making the cases more complicated.

 

[nabob]

The numbers staying constant is better than them constantly increasing. They were constant for a while as the people recovering and new ones were on par, now more are recovering than new hospitalizations so it starts to drop. Remember that it can't take up to 2 weeks to start showing symptoms and usually they don't get bad enough to hospitalize you for at least a bit after that.

I've learned that looking at the raw numbers feels much more depressing but when you look at the graphs with the rates, gives you a truly outlook on how it's going.

can or can’t?

I thought that once a person had Covid for two weeks that if you didn’t have any symptoms you were pretty much in the clear?

true, and I guess listening to quick radio blurbs or only having time to read the headlines doesn’t give a person a great picture of things either

 

[CycloneSweep]

either you're working throughout this pandemic or you can live on EI no problem

but I can you my brother hasn't worked since March and his mental health is in shambles due to lack of money...he'd gladly "risk" getting the virus by working if it meant providing for his family

I've said this before but I don't think the mental health state of the nation would be any better without restrictions and lockdowns overall, just different people would be suffering for different reasons.

 

[CycloneSweep]

can or can’t?

I thought that once a person had Covid for two weeks that if you didn’t have any symptoms you were pretty much in the clear?

true, and I guess listening to quick radio blurbs or only having time to read the headlines doesn’t give a person a great picture of things either

That's why I said it can take up to two weeks. Usually by the time you go get tested it's been a few days since exposure. I think it's closer to 10 days though

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

I've said this before but I don't think the mental health state of the nation would be any better without restrictions and lockdowns overall, just different people would be suffering for different reasons.

and I've been saying all alone there's need to be clear evidence of transmission before we shut these places down and killing people's livelihoods...also, there's no consistency

malls are open but salons and barbershops are closed why?
large indoor gatherings should absolutely be banned but other closure make little sense