OT: Coronavirus XXIX: Is This Even the Right Damn Roman Numeral? New Measures to Curb Stomp COVID?

[Stoneman89]

Because they waited too f***ing long to lockdown. And it probably has mitigated the cases from being even MORE of a sh** show. It's ALWAYS going to get to a point where you lockdown so why not do it when it's more manageable so the lockdown can be shorter in length?

Yup, agreed. Actually, should have started end of August. Got waaaay ahead of the curve, just to be sure. And I think it would have worked out well going forward. By the time we got to November, there would be no business's left to go out to anyhow, so everyone could keep inside, safe and sound in their basements, until they got the call to come out for vaccine shots.

 

[yukoner88]

The Simpsons were the Kings of the explosion jokes. Family Guy has tried but they will never sniff at how good the Simpson's did it

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

So why not just get ahead of it and put in the restrictions/lockdown now? The higher we allow the numbers to rise the harder it will be to mitigate and the longer it will take to mitigate. Foolish handling by Kenney.

It’s a fair question.

People’s freedoms to run a business, to go to school, and to work jobs to provide for themselves and their families is obviously very important. At what point to we remove these rights on people deemed “none-essential” because our health care system can’t handle it? It’s a very difficult question to answer.

 

[bellagiobob]

So why not just get ahead of it and put in the restrictions/lockdown now? The higher we allow the numbers to rise the harder it will be to mitigate and the longer it will take to mitigate. Foolish handling by Kenney.

How much of a further lockdown can you put on private residences, where a good chunk of the spread is happening? We’ve already banned all visitors, have enforcement teams roaming neighbourhoods looking for trouble spots and fining people. Other than welding the doors shut, not sure what else can be done in that area.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I’m betting further restrictions will be put in place prior to Christmas. As the ICUs fill, more and more are going to miss their surgeries.

Pay close attention to the details. Lots of testing done lately, and its the Calgary numbers that are increasing now every day, not so much Edmonton numbers. I mean they are testing a shitload right now. Over 20K every day, to be seeing these kinds of daily numbers.

 

[Drivesaitl]

How much of a further lockdown can you put on private residences, where a good chunk of the spread is happening? We’ve already banned all visitors, have enforcement teams roaming neighbourhoods looking for trouble spots and fining people. Other than welding the doors shut, not sure what else can be done in that area.

Why don't we just wait for the numbers to go down, which they will, as the restrictions levied begin to take effect? It hasn't been the two weeks yet to eve be seeing the results of the last shutdowns. gee its barely been days. Not saying you, just saying to the thread.

But anyway I'm gonna lock things down further in our house. Wife upstairs watching shite programming and country music, me downstairs with Led Zep, Rec Room, fireplace, nice stocked bar, and whatever I want to watch on telly. I think I got this!

Whoops, kitchen is upstairs..

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

Pay close attention to the details. Lots of testing done lately, and its the Calgary numbers that are increasing now every day, not so much Edmonton numbers. I mean they are testing a shitload right now. Over 20K every day, to be seeing these kinds of daily numbers.

Ya I don’t pay attention to the daily COVID cases numbers as I do the hospitalization and ICU numbers. I wonder how high they let these numbers go. I believe they said Alberta has ICU capacity in the 400s. Do we let it get that close? I’m not sure.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I think Diwali was one of the reasons for a large increase of cases in the south asian community. It's one of the major celebrations in the year for them and it occurred just before the restrictions on private gathering. People definitely had entire 20 people + parties going on.

In Millwoods people seemed quite respectful of limited gatherings and all the local businesses seemed to be taking distancing and precautions seriously. Stores where we are had self limited amount of people in stores people waiting to go in (lots) and even putting some heaters outside for people waiting in line to get into the stores. I mean for sure lots of customers, but wearing masks, taking precautions. People even staying in cars and one per family going in we observed a lot of. I love where we live.

 

[bone]

Pay close attention to the details. Lots of testing done lately, and its the Calgary numbers that are increasing now every day, not so much Edmonton numbers. I mean they are testing a shitload right now. Over 20K every day, to be seeing these kinds of daily numbers.

One detail of concern is that 1/3 of all ICU beds in Edmonton are now locked up with COVID patients (using the April modelling numbers), and province wide about 5 more ICU beds a day on average are taking on COVID patients over the past week. That needs to at least start slowing down. Yes they can ramp things up, but ideally that should only be a last resort if you can slow it down before reaching that critical point.

Testing though it is increasing, positivity has been steadily rising as well from about 4% at Halloween almost to 8% the last few days. You know I'm not a lock it down person and have said a few times that it takes a couple of weeks for the effects of restrictions to kick in, but at some point, it would be nice to see at least one of these measures settle down a little. Yes, it's still a little early to see it, but everyone's going to be on edge until something gives.

 

[bone]

Why don't we just wait for the numbers to go down, which they will, as the restrictions levied begin to take effect? It hasn't been the two weeks yet to eve be seeing the results of the last shutdowns. gee its barely been days. Not saying you, just saying to the thread.

But anyway I'm gonna lock things down further in our house. Wife upstairs watching shite programming and country music, me downstairs with Led Zep, Rec Room, fireplace, nice stocked bar, and whatever I want to watch on telly. I think I got this!

Whoops, kitchen is upstairs..

Just setup curbside pickup for a heat plate, then you are set.

 

[Drivesaitl]

One detail of concern is that 1/3 of all ICU beds in Edmonton are now locked up with COVID patients (using the April modelling numbers), and province wide about 5 more ICU beds a day on average are taking on COVID patients over the past week. That needs to at least start slowing down. Yes they can ramp things up, but ideally that should only be a last resort if you can slow it down before reaching that critical point.

Testing though it is increasing, positivity has been steadily rising as well from about 4% at Halloween almost to 8% the last few days. You know I'm not a lock it down person and have said a few times that it takes a couple of weeks for the effects of restrictions to kick in, but at some point, it would be nice to see at least one of these measures settle down a little.

Well, we are peak of our Covid Pandemic and it is nothing close to as bad as the first forcasts showed even in "most optimistic" projections. I mean 75 Covid specific beds in the province were seen as the starting point. It was always assumed we would be increasing the amount allotted to dealing with Covid. The Province even had made arrangements for 20o extra ventilators. I mean the reality is we are actually doing acceptably well compared to what any of the best case projections where forcasting for our peak covid. I mean that perspective has to be there. I mean consideration of things not being as bad as originally thought is why we were able to open schools, have kids in class for months. Alberta has really done a very job of allowing functioning and life to continue to go on and keeping vital things like schools going as much as possible during a worst in a century pandemic.

%+ has hovered around 8 for the last dozen days. Sask and Manitoba are much worse. Theres variance day to day, just yesterday we had 6.5.

Did the do the R value yet for Alberta? In UK its .9, they just released some data, and appears to be headed down.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Just setup curbside pickup for a heat plate, then you are set.

Got two packed freezers downstairs, a bar fridge, two portable heating plates, looks like I could be set.. Fried everything..we'll see how this goes.

and yes, 2 bottles of Gosling Black Seal rum. whole bag of limes, shitload of coke, ice, among other things...

Doing my part for my country.. I'll battle on the couch, I'll batlle at the bar fridge, I'll battle stuffing wood in the fireplace, I'll battle carving limes, frying food, not so bad..

 

[bone]

Well, we are peak of our Covid Pandemic and it is nothing close to as bad as the first forcasts showed even in "most optimistic" projections. I mean 75 Covid specific beds in the province were seen as the starting point. It was always assumed we would be increasing the amount allotted to dealing with Covid. The Province even had made arrangements for 20o extra ventilators. I mean the reality is we are actually doing acceptably well compared to what any of the best case projections where forcasting for our peak covid. I mean that perspective has to be there. I mean consideration of things not being as bad as originally thought is why we were able to open schools, have kids in class for months. Alberta has really done a very job of allowing functioning and life to continue to go on and keeping vital things like schools going as much as possible during a worst in a century pandemic.

Did the do the R value yet for Alberta? In UK its .9, they just released some data, and appears to be headed down.

My only concern with any of your post is that it's not actually clear to me that we are peak yet here in Alberta. Fortunately because this is happening six months later than the modelling we're at least in a better position to respond to those models, but we still could see some of those models come to light just later than predicted. And the intent with the models was to at least have a plan, but it wasn't to suggest implementing would be easy to do.

Unfortunately I can't figure out how to calculate R value for Alberta. Last week Kenney alluded to something like 1.2 or 1.3 and that they need to see less than 1.0. Considering nothing has stabilized yet I'm sure it has dropped signicantly if at all.

Since you added the % item as well. I understand that, but when we've gone from 4% to almost 8% in just over four weeks, it isn't suggesting to me we're at peak yet.

 

[Drivesaitl]

My only concern with any of your post is that it's not actually clear to me that we are peak yet here in Alberta. Fortunately because this is happening six months later than the modelling we're at least in a better position to respond to those models, but we still could see some of those models come to light just later than predicted. And the intent with the models was to at least have a plan, but it wasn't to suggest implementing would be easy to do.

Unfortunately I can't figure out how to calculate R value for Alberta. Last week Kenney alluded to something like 1.2 or 1.3 and that they need to see less than 1.0. Considering nothing has stabilized yet I'm sure it has dropped signicantly if at all.

Since you added the % item as well. I understand that, but when we've gone from 4% to almost 8% in just over four weeks, it isn't suggesting to me we're at peak yet.

In the entire northern hemisphere, with the exclusion of the US, Covid follows a pattern of 2-3mth waves, in winters. we've already had close to 2mths, I doubt our wave looks much different than any other comparable jurisdiction. Its the same virus, same pandemic. Look at the Euro numbers going down everywhere, and with pretty much identical restrictions.

You neglect to mention that we also went from testing all people wanting tests to just symptomatic cases, which also is a factor in the % going up. In anycase its normal for that number to rise in winter, and realistically we get early winters here and so 6weeks of winterish weather thus far. If this isn't peak, we're not far off in my estimation.

 

[Beerfish]

2000 more active cases than Ontario, what a travesty.

 

[bone]

In the entire northern hemisphere, with the exclusion of the US, Covid follows a pattern of 2-3mth waves, in winters. we've already had close to 2mths, I doubt our wave looks much different than any other comparable jurisdiction. Its the same virus, same pandemic. Look at the Euro numbers going down everywhere, and with pretty much identical restrictions.

You neglect to mention that we also went from testing all people wanting tests to just symptomatic cases, which also is a factor in the % going up. In anycase its normal for that number to rise in winter, and realistically we get early winters here and so 6weeks of winterish weather.

Asymptomatic was discontinued in September so it isn't relevant when comparing positivity at the end of October to today. To illustrate, here's the data I'm using when saying positivity has doubled since just before Halloween. I understand the 2 month theory, but we're not there yet so there will remain some unease until we know we're over the hump.

---
edit, I just caught myself it was late October where they stopped asymptomatic, where the September was just a move to do asymptomatic only on priority groups. But I think it still suggests the Halloween numbers are relevent to compare to today.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Because they waited too f***ing long to lockdown. And it probably has mitigated the cases from being even MORE of a sh** show. It's ALWAYS going to get to a point where you lockdown so why not do it when it's more manageable so the lockdown can be shorter in length?

Locking down or shutting things down earlier, I think its clear we've seen, results in longer periods of lockdowns, shutdowns, whatever. Its mitigation, it suppresses numbers, it doesn't stop the wave.

 

[bellagiobob]

My only concern with any of your post is that it's not actually clear to me that we are peak yet here in Alberta. Fortunately because this is happening six months later than the modelling we're at least in a better position to respond to those models, but we still could see some of those models come to light just later than predicted. And the intent with the models was to at least have a plan, but it wasn't to suggest implementing would be easy to do.

Unfortunately I can't figure out how to calculate R value for Alberta. Last week Kenney alluded to something like 1.2 or 1.3 and that they need to see less than 1.0. Considering nothing has stabilized yet I'm sure it has dropped signicantly if at all.

Since you added the % item as well. I understand that, but when we've gone from 4% to almost 8% in just over four weeks, it isn't suggesting to me we're at peak yet.

Thought I read that the R factor was now going to be published weekly?

 

[Drivesaitl]

Asymptomatic was discontinued in September so it isn't relevant when comparing positivity at the end of October to today. To illustrate, here's the data I'm using when saying positivity has doubled since just before Halloween. I understand the 2 month theory, but we're not there yet so there will remain some unease until we know we're over the hump.

View attachment 377759

Just for clarity I don't know your dates are accurate.

Asymptomatic testing no longer available to Albertans without known exposure to COVID-19 | Edmonton Journal

Alberta diverted in sept 18 to do more symptomatic testing. Alberta was still doing Asymptomatic testing well into October.

Thanks for the data.

edit, just saw your edit..

 

[Drivesaitl]

Thought I read that the R factor was now going to be published weekly?

Was supposed to be today anyway.

 

[bone]

Just for clarity I don't know your dates are accurate.

Asymptomatic testing no longer available to Albertans without known exposure to COVID-19 | Edmonton Journal

Alberta diverted in sept 18 to do more symptomatic testing. Alberta was still doing Asymptomatic testing well into October.

Thanks for the data.

Caught my error just before this and added a quick edit. I still feel my comment that comparing Halloween to today is relevent as it was discontinued by Halloween.

September 17th, they moved asymptomatic only to priority groups where before it was anybody, then they further restricted it at the end of October.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Caught my error just before this and added a quick edit. I still feel my comment that comparing Halloween to today is relevent as it was discontinued by Halloween.

September 17th, they moved asymptomatic only to priority groups where before it was anybody, then they further restricted it at the end of October.

Further clarity that it takes a little time for the changes to take effect, lots of lag time. So while they stated they discontinued all asymptomatic tests on I believe October 21, people still had scheduled tests, asymptomatic were still scheduling tests, and it takes a while to get that backlog out of the way, and to get those test results back. I bet some asymptomatic test RESULTs were still entering data stream at start of November. Small quibble.

 

[nabob]

How much of a further lockdown can you put on private residences, where a good chunk of the spread is happening? We’ve already banned all visitors, have enforcement teams roaming neighbourhoods looking for trouble spots and fining people. Other than welding the doors shut, not sure what else can be done in that area.

Close all small businesses, you know the places that aren’t accounting for any of the spread. Close them all!! Can’t have people earning a living for themselves.

 

[Stoneman89]

2000 more active cases than Ontario, what a travesty.

Must be a bunch of maskless, packed BBQ places that opened up again.

 

[Gregsky99]

Jeez this is getting insane!!! Can we get a new thread title already?!? That’s the only reason I’ve been checking in today.