Coronavirus XV: Keep Up the Good Work (no off-topic discussions)

Discussion in 'Edmonton Oilers' started by Bryanbryoil, May 28, 2020.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. oobga Tier 2 Fan

    Joined:
    Aug 1, 2003
    Messages:
    17,335
    Likes Received:
    8,121
    Trophy Points:
    231
    SB Cash:
    $ 100,000
    I think I'll leave you to just living in the world of statistics without taking in any other possible factors. And hey, I'll even take your 2% as a qualifier for my comment that it's not unfathomable that 0 people were infected there. That's better than the Oilers cup winning odds by most analytics people.
     
  2. Drivesaitl Stupid dumb punter ;)

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2017
    Messages:
    15,758
    Likes Received:
    10,048
    Trophy Points:
    132
    SB Cash:
    $ 100,000
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Edmonton
    This is a gigantic leap. For the reasons I mentioned earlier. The selected subset that attended the rally all did so ignoring the health precautions and health guidelines. That pretty much precludes what you wrote in the bolded. Now if you want to say that people that attended THINK they are the most conscientious, and think that regardless of their rule breaking activity, and hugging and smoking spliffs during a pandemic, that they cornered the market on virtue, then I would more agree with you.

    The subset is more inclined to think rules don't apply to them.

    In anycase I won't entertain the sidebar further. It stands to reason that people that were assembled in thousands contrary to health guideline stipulation during a pandemic do not necessarily make up a subset of the most conscientious people in society. Every one of those people would have family members that are susceptible to serious harm from the virus, and they are themselves. It was irresponsible activity, during a pandemic.
     
    Last edited: Jun 16, 2020
  3. Drivesaitl Stupid dumb punter ;)

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2017
    Messages:
    15,758
    Likes Received:
    10,048
    Trophy Points:
    132
    SB Cash:
    $ 100,000
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Edmonton
    Its astounding that in a place with a name like "Redondo Beach" that the gym equipment wouldn't just be outside, where it be MUCH safer, and in a fenced in or enclosed facility. Kind of what like Venice beach was at one time. Outdoor gyms are cost effective, much cheaper, and should proliferate in warmer climes where people can use them 4 seasons.

    Just moving all that equipment outside in the sun and putting a fence up would be safer than all the indoor effort taking place judging from the picture. Also the cubicles are all for nothing if the AC blows the Covid infection around or people contract it in washrooms, drinking fountains (egads, anybody using these).
     
    Scoopie likes this.
  4. bellagiobob Registered User

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2006
    Messages:
    3,917
    Likes Received:
    4,099
    Trophy Points:
    156
    SB Cash:
    $ 100,000
    Location:
    Sin City
     
    Leo360 and Skar like this.
  5. oobga Tier 2 Fan

    Joined:
    Aug 1, 2003
    Messages:
    17,335
    Likes Received:
    8,121
    Trophy Points:
    231
    SB Cash:
    $ 100,000
    Hehe, I'm sure lots fall under that category of thinking they are conscientious more than actually being. Even that can still lead to more careful behavior than the average albertan before this global movement caught their eye. Many in AB are just outright defiant about putting any effort into distancing and being careful. I'd be interested to hear the stories of the people involved in these recent case jumps originating from gatherings.

    The act of social distancing and mask wearing IMO are excellent opportunities for any person trying to signal virtue to show their quality :) Loads of opportunity to try to shame others about it too.
     
    Last edited: Jun 16, 2020
    Skar, nabob and Drivesaitl like this.
  6. Scoopie Registered User

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2020
    Messages:
    465
    Likes Received:
    280
    Trophy Points:
    46
    SB Cash:
    $ 100,000
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Edmonton
    That is your support for people attending the BLM rallies are more conscientious than the average person in our population?

    Of course your tortured and logically questionable premises are going to lead to that conclusion. Everything you have posted has pointed to your belief that there will be no infections from the protest. No science behind it. Just feelz.
     
  7. bucks_oil Registered User

    Joined:
    Aug 25, 2005
    Messages:
    5,100
    Likes Received:
    898
    Trophy Points:
    139
    SB Cash:
    $ 100,000
    As a guy working in the field, you have good intuition:

    Green: This is exactly the concept behind the first vaccines... early vaccine strategies (1900's) were to give less virus, weak virus, or killed virus. Nowadays we are a lot more sophisticated. We give parts of the virus (e.g. feathers not ducks), or virus mimics (e.g. a duck decoy), or blueprints of parts of the virus (e.g. the genetic code for a feather, hoping it will make one inside the body).

    Blue and Green: Disease vs immunity differs from virus to virus, but it is usually a numbers game. If you are completely naive to a virus as (i) an individual or (ii) a population... then the exposure can be high. Your "innate" immune system (which is not specific for the virus) can only do so much. Specific immunity (antibodies, T-cells) take time after exposure to develop... and until that time you are at the mercy, in part, of the numbers game... if you got a huge load of virus on your first exposure you'll be relatively sicker... and you'll likely shed more virus too. Once you have antibodies (to stop virus in the blood from infecting healthy cells) and T-cells (to kill the infected cells/virus factories) the level of virus in you goes down... and on a population level less is circulating.

    Red: One would certainly hope not. PPE and air handling would certainly provide a sterile environment. I'm sure some hospital exposure is possible, but not once someone is isolated (especially in ICU). The more obvious explanation is that the sickest go to the hospital.
     
    Drivesaitl likes this.
  8. bellagiobob Registered User

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2006
    Messages:
    3,917
    Likes Received:
    4,099
    Trophy Points:
    156
    SB Cash:
    $ 100,000
    Location:
    Sin City


    That look of terror maybe isn’t the best ad for encouraging testing. ;)
     
    Cloned and joestevens29 like this.
  9. joestevens29 Registered User

    Joined:
    Apr 30, 2009
    Messages:
    41,514
    Likes Received:
    3,317
    Trophy Points:
    186
    SB Cash:
    $ 100,000
    I really like that we have this ability now. Doing our best to stay on top of things.
     
  10. oobga Tier 2 Fan

    Joined:
    Aug 1, 2003
    Messages:
    17,335
    Likes Received:
    8,121
    Trophy Points:
    231
    SB Cash:
    $ 100,000
    I feelz like you are trying to restrict my ability to fathom possibilities and I must adhere you your "science". The Science that of all events the world that can be fully explained using multiplication and percentages.

    If you're not willing to entertain any possibility aside from A x B = C (and I guess you're ignoring that we're both completely making up the "B" in the equation, but that's not stopping you from insisting you're right), then I don't think we have anything left to discuss. Stick to your %'s and assume every person in the city is exactly the same, and I will fathom some possibilities that take other factors into account.

    And yes, I won't be that surprised if some cases come out of the protests. But it's still not unfathomable to me that no one there was spreading COVID-19, simply based on how low the case numbers looked at the time they were held.


    I did go on a tangent about the protesters themselves. I certainly did not participate, and no one I know did either. Still, I have some sympathy for the message people have been gathering around the world for, and I do think it takes a certain type of person, at least on average, to take time from their day to participate in such a thing. Drivesaitl points out I think correctly that a bunch are there to just virtue signal. I'm sure some are there just looking for some tail to chase or out of boredome. But I think the large majority are there thinking it's a very important cause that transcends COVID-19 in how far reaching into our futures and past the issue of police brutality and systemic racism are. And I think with that mentality likely came carefulness about the distancing and isolation measures that were expected of people before they went out there to participate in a global movement. I'm sure you would disagree since every person is equal in the world of flat numbers and %'s, but my feelz are telling me otherwise at the moment.
     
    Skar likes this.
  11. bellagiobob Registered User

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2006
    Messages:
    3,917
    Likes Received:
    4,099
    Trophy Points:
    156
    SB Cash:
    $ 100,000
    Location:
    Sin City
  12. Scoopie Registered User

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2020
    Messages:
    465
    Likes Received:
    280
    Trophy Points:
    46
    SB Cash:
    $ 100,000
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Edmonton
    I provided a heckuva lot more substance for my B than you did.

    I'm looking for. Some sort of foundation for your belief that protestors are more conscientious than average people. I am assuming equal distribution of conscientiousness. That is the scientific approach barring evidence to the contrary.

    What do you mean the cause transcends the virus?

    If the virus is a public health risk and no one can protest that is fine. However, Alberta public health literally made a choice when anti-lockdown protesters were fined for breaking social distancing rules while no one at the BLM rally was fined for the exact same behaviour.

    It is not the role of government to decide which protests are more important than others.
     
  13. oobga Tier 2 Fan

    Joined:
    Aug 1, 2003
    Messages:
    17,335
    Likes Received:
    8,121
    Trophy Points:
    231
    SB Cash:
    $ 100,000
    Texas, Florida and Arizona all with record case increases in a day today.
     
  14. oobga Tier 2 Fan

    Joined:
    Aug 1, 2003
    Messages:
    17,335
    Likes Received:
    8,121
    Trophy Points:
    231
    SB Cash:
    $ 100,000
    Did you? There were 100 active cases at the time of the protests. Later it climbed to ~165. You took that 0.01 to 0.017 and turned it into 0.06% of our population (600 people) roaming with undetected COVID-19 cases because of your feelz. And then mistakenly multiplied 0.6% (which would make it 6000 people undetected perfectly distributed in the population) by 15000 to say 100 cases instead of 9 would have been at the rally.

    That's some impressive "B" theory there, really.
     
    Last edited: Jun 16, 2020
    Skar likes this.
  15. Scoopie Registered User

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2020
    Messages:
    465
    Likes Received:
    280
    Trophy Points:
    46
    SB Cash:
    $ 100,000
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Edmonton
    Sigh. You have still provided more scientific rigour in trying to misrepresent my position than you have used to substantiate your position.
     
  16. oobga Tier 2 Fan

    Joined:
    Aug 1, 2003
    Messages:
    17,335
    Likes Received:
    8,121
    Trophy Points:
    231
    SB Cash:
    $ 100,000
    I think I'm arguing with a kid that just learned how to multiply
     
  17. Scoopie Registered User

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2020
    Messages:
    465
    Likes Received:
    280
    Trophy Points:
    46
    SB Cash:
    $ 100,000
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Edmonton
    Yes, personally insult me. That's as much as an admission of guilt.

    You dismissed my factor for the undetected case with a childish 'feelz'. There are currently 440 active covid cases that have been diagnosed in Alberta. How many undiagnosed cases do you believe there are? Use that to gross up my numbers instead of a childish 'feelz'. Or present an argument why you don't think there are any undiagnosed cases.
     
  18. oobga Tier 2 Fan

    Joined:
    Aug 1, 2003
    Messages:
    17,335
    Likes Received:
    8,121
    Trophy Points:
    231
    SB Cash:
    $ 100,000
    Why are you using all of AB? Are we not talking about Edmonton? Goalposts seem to keep moving around too.

    Did I say there are 0 undiagnosed cases? Why are you misrepresenting my argument? I actually didn't make any assumption about how exactly many undiagnosed cases there are. This started with me saying that based on how few cases there were in Edmonton, it's not unfathomable that no one at the rally have COVID-19. This would obviously require a small number of undiagnosed cases. I didn't say it would be the case with certainty because I know there are likely undiagnosed cases out there. I volunteered 300 earlier in the discussion that you suggested left only a 2% chance that using a perfect distribution of cases in the population and a blind grab of 15,000 people that you could not end up with at least 1 person with a case at the rally. Which I said fine to, but still think it's possible the chances are greater if we entertained some possibilities which you seemed to take even more offense to because we must all be confined in the realm of perfect distribution apparently.
     
  19. Scoopie Registered User

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2020
    Messages:
    465
    Likes Received:
    280
    Trophy Points:
    46
    SB Cash:
    $ 100,000
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Edmonton
    You are just here to fight. Not sure what you gain by that.

    The province reports case numbers province wide the next day but there is a lag for city numbers. 170 cases in Edmonton. There I have answered your question. Why was that a case of moving goalposts?

    Still waiting for an answer. How many undiagnosed cases do you believe there are in Alberta or Edmonton? You'll answer if you are interested in a debate.
     
  20. oobga Tier 2 Fan

    Joined:
    Aug 1, 2003
    Messages:
    17,335
    Likes Received:
    8,121
    Trophy Points:
    231
    SB Cash:
    $ 100,000
    Am I? I'm pretty sure you started this by taking issue with me saying a possibility was not unfathomable. Which is actually a pretty open statement. And since then you have been trying to force me to adhere to your science that I am wrong to even think it's possible that 0 people at the rally had COVID-19.

    How did we move to AB numbers again? You tell me. I think I was offering up a guess of how many undetected COVID-19 cases there were in Edmonton, and was basing a guess on active cases before and after the rally happened. Somehow you turned that into 0.06% of Edmonton's population has undetected cases. Then that turned into 0.6% (by accident I assume?) to guess 100 people at the rally had COVID-19.
     
    CycloneSweep likes this.
  21. Scoopie Registered User

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2020
    Messages:
    465
    Likes Received:
    280
    Trophy Points:
    46
    SB Cash:
    $ 100,000
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Edmonton
    What is your guess on undetected Covid cases? Alberta or Edmonton? No move involved here.

    The 0.06% is based on my estimate of undetected Covid cases in Edmonton. I explained what that number was. What is your estimate?
     
  22. oobga Tier 2 Fan

    Joined:
    Aug 1, 2003
    Messages:
    17,335
    Likes Received:
    8,121
    Trophy Points:
    231
    SB Cash:
    $ 100,000
    On a darker note. India's death toll from COVID-19 just went up 20% with 2000 deaths today. I'm not sure I want to know what is actually happening there...Probably many amny millions of people vulnerable that won't even have a chance to be cared for in a hospital if they get it, let alone be tested.
     
  23. oobga Tier 2 Fan

    Joined:
    Aug 1, 2003
    Messages:
    17,335
    Likes Received:
    8,121
    Trophy Points:
    231
    SB Cash:
    $ 100,000
    So, you can use feelz estimates for undetected cases, but I can't say it's not unfathomable (again, a very open ended phrase) that no one at the rally had COVID-19. I think I am starting to understand the potential this argument has to ever conclude :)
     
  24. Scoopie Registered User

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2020
    Messages:
    465
    Likes Received:
    280
    Trophy Points:
    46
    SB Cash:
    $ 100,000
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Edmonton
    You win with the childishness and personal insults again. Go ahead. Have the last word.
     
    oobga likes this.
  25. oobga Tier 2 Fan

    Joined:
    Aug 1, 2003
    Messages:
    17,335
    Likes Received:
    8,121
    Trophy Points:
    231
    SB Cash:
    $ 100,000
    haha, you said I was operating on feelz and I started using it too. I was just trying to get on the same wavelength to see where you were coming from.


    In the end we have a very Canadian conclusion to the argument. :)

    And I will definitely be on board with being pissed at people at the rally if it does indeed end up in a jump in cases. Maybe we find out in 30 mins.
     
    Scoopie likes this.
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page

  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.
    Dismiss Notice
monitoring_string = "358c248ada348a047a4b9bb27a146148"